Exchanges Part 2

 I was thinking about my last post and realized that I had a few more things to say about using an exchange, market-making in general and a little bit more on NoVig specifically.

This will get into the weeds a bit. If you do use an exchange or are any kind of arber at all, you'll get something out of this. If not, you might want to wait until my next post.

I have made one subtle but very important change in the way I set up big arbs/scalps/half scalps. This is maybe obvious to everyone else but I just learn on my own as I go so I don't really know what the average arber does or how he goes about things.

The way arbing typically works is first you need to find something arb-able. Let's say I can bet a prop Over at +110 at one place and the Under at -105 at another place. One of these lines has to be fairly off market. Let's say the +110 is off market. I would max bet the +110, let's say the max bet is $1k. If your bankroll justifies it and you are confident that the +110 is indeed off market, your best play is to just let that $1k stand. However, with props especially, you can't always trust the market. So even if your bankroll does justify being naked with a $1k bet, it can oftentimes make sense to buy some back on the other side at -105. This will make your bet have better effective odds. Say you bet $1k to win $1.1k on the over at +110 and $525 to win $500 on the under at -105. Now your effective bet is Over $500 to win $575, or +115. The more you buy back, the better your effective odds but the less volume you get down.

This is pretty standard, straight forward stuff so far and something we've covered here before.

However, here is where I made a change.

Let's stay with the example above. Let's say I made both those bets and now have the 500/575 (+115) bet on the Over. In the past, I might arb that bet with something at, say, -112. After all, -112 is arb-able with +115. But when you do that, all you're really doing is cancelling out the bet you made at +110. 

Now, when I'm market making on NoVig, I will never take any bet that isn't better than my worst bet on the other side.

For example, say I get -104 matched on an MLB Team A and +110 matched on their opponent, Team B. The worst possible number I would take on Team B now would be +106, and the worst number I would take on Team A would be -108. No matter what. I never take any bets that are not a pure arb with the worst number I got on the other side. 

This is probably common knowledge and I did generally operate like this in the past, for the most part. But now I'm way more strict about it.

I think I learned this lesson from trading stocks/crypto. If you buy a stock at $10/share and then sell some at $20/share, you really are just locking in a loss if you buy back in at $21 or higher. I know there are other considerations with stocks like taxes and liquidity needs and whatnot, and sometimes things change and buying back in higher is the right play. But then that means that by definition, your sell at $20 was a mistake. It cannot possibly be true that selling at $20/share and buying at $21 or higher are both correct. One of those moves has to be a mistake.

Here's a good rule of thumb I think of often. If you could repeat whatever you are doing an infinite amount of times, would you make or lose money? If you buy a stock at $21 at sell at $20 over and over, you will lose all of your money eventually. If you do the opposite, buy at $20 and sell at $21, over and over, you will eventually have all the money in the world.

Same thing applies to arbing. If you can bet one side at -104 and the other at +106, over and over again, you would eventually win all the money. Literally.

So now I only take a bet if it is arb-able with the worst number I got on the other side. This also has the side-effect of making me way more picky about what I will even offer in the first place. 

I have mostly operated like this forever, but seeing it in a different form with stocks really crystalized the idea for me, and same thing with NoVig. Seeing all the bets in each arb very cleanly has nailed the point home for me. I used to only care about my effective odds. To me, a half scalp where I have +115 effective odds was no different than a regular bet at +115, which is still true. But now I realize that that isn't the whole story. You have to consider the bets that got you to +115 in the first place.

A couple tips about NoVig specifically that I forgot to mention:

One of their 'challenges' is to log in every day for a month straight. All that means is clicking on the app so it's pretty easy. However, you have to actually go into the challenge and click on 'claim points' at 5 days, 15 days and I think 25 days to actually claim it. Honestly it's barely worth it but if you're on there everyday anyway, you might has well know that.

Also, it can be a little tricky to use at first. You're offering bets on the opposite side of what you want, so it is possible to make mistakes. One time I put a plus sign on my offer when I meant to do a minus sign. So I got some bet at like -150 when it should have been +150, which is obviously a disaster. Honestly, I'm surprised that doesn't happen more often. NoVig does a neat little thing where they show you the best price you can offer and that's actually a good tool and a good way to not make a mistake like that. I am always sure to look at the market after I make an offer to make sure nothing looks weird. 

Lastly, always remember that this shit is zero-sum. You can only win if someone else loses. Winning money on an exchange long term is hard. Literally everyone else is trying to do the same thing (well I suppose that isn't exactly true. Some people do use them to lay-off action and as the hard sides of arbs so I guess there are people trying to lose on there. But they're winning that money and then some back in other places. So even they are taking money out of the whole ecosystem.) My point is that it isn't easy. Having any kind of profit long-term is commendable. Even the way I do it, offering markets on both sides of a game, is nowhere near fool proof. Plenty of times I'll get only one side filled and will be naked on a bet. Sometimes it'll be a really bad number too, if the market moved hard one way and I was too slow to react. So if I can maintain a 2% ROI on there, I would be pretty happy. I think 2-3% is about right. It'll be interesting to see what my ROI is after the NFL season. 

That's all for today, folks! Check back soon, bye for now!

Exchanges. The Future? Plus Tips And Tricks.

 In one of my recent posts, I mentioned how I had opened up an account at NoVig, a sports betting exchange. I've been betting on there just about every single day for about two months now, so I thought I would talk about how I use it, some small tips and tricks, and also what I think about exchanges in general.

First off, let me remind everyone that I am in no way affiliated with NoVig or any other sports book or any other THING. You'll see no referral links from me, ever, and everything and anything I say on here is 100% because I think it's true and I feel like telling people. That is it. 

(Also, one more thing before I dive in, my next post will be about my big boy BTC purchase(s)/strategy that I talked about last post).

So like I said, I opened an account at NoVig and have been using it quite a lot. First off, a quick review of NoVig specifically: Overall, I really like it. It's easy to use, super quick and light feeling, user friendly. It's app only though which does suck. I've read that they're working on a regular web page but we'll see. It's commission free which is awesome and one of the best things about it. They have far and away the best odds available for nearly everything when compared to normal sports books. Even against exchanges they're usually the best number on the board, sometimes on both sides. Think about that.

The better prices alone are worth signing up for, but they offer promos too. They aren't anything compared to regular sports books but they've amounted to something like $100 a month for me with small free bets and deposit matches.

I know this probably sounds like an ad almost but honestly, I can't quite recommend them enough. Not even NoVig specifically but just an exchange in general. The differences in the prices you can get are absurd. 

Negatives: the only real negative to an exchange is the liquidity. However, if you're the kind of bettor that worries at all about 'liquidity', you're almost for sure a professional. So if you are anything other than a full time professional sports bettor, you can definitely make use of an exchange.

Now, here is the way I use it. I just look at different lines and look for anything with a roughly 7 cent or better spread. So something lined at -120, +127 for example. Then I make even offers on both sides, usually at slightly better prices. As one side gets filled, I'll offer the other side plus an additional unit. So I basically have one unit at risk, flip flopping between sides as the orders get matched and my number gets better and better. I almost always end up with a bet of roughly one unit on one side at a price much better than the closing line. It's honestly pretty easy. A bit time consuming I suppose, especially with it all being on the phone, but nothing like making and using models. Not even close.

When I first signed up, you could make an offer at any price you wanted to. After being on there a couple weeks, they changed it so that you have to offer prices at better than one cent increments. For example, if someone is offering +120, I can't offer +121, it would have to be +122. The further from zero you get, the bigger the difference is. For instance, after +260 you have to offer +264.

And I swear to god, I think they made that change because of me. I was undercutting everyone and everything by one cent, lol. When I first saw the change I was pissed but I'm actually in favor of it now. I was honestly using it too much and spending way too much time building one cent arbs. Even if you get a decent amount down, it really isn't worth it. I try to get at least 3 cent arbs now.

A really good tip to using an exchange is to look at the order book. That will show you how much money is being offered at each price. Sometimes you'll see a a razor sharp line but the two best prices on the board are for less than 50 bucks. I generally treat any offer under 200 bucks as non-existent.

Another good tip is finding the right balance between patience and aggression. Sometimes you get one side filled and you want the other side to get filled as well, so you might make something of a panic offer. I have found that you usually want to err on the side of patience but not all the time. Sometimes you really do have to pounce. Finding that line is important.

Also, I almost never take. Over 90% of my action on there is through make orders. Except for live betting, I'm surprised that anyone takes anything. Why not do a make order and get yourself at least 3 cents better?

The way I use it is that I essentially become a bookie, except I don't have to interact with anyone or worry about getting paid - the two worst, by far, things about taking action. I can also limit what, when and how much I take action on.

The only real downside of this approach is when you have offers up on both sides of a line and the market moves hard one way. Then you get one side filled and are stuck with a losing bet. This does happen from time to time and is the reason I always start small and build as they get filled. Early on, I had the idea of just offering a big amount on both sides and letting them sit there and get filled throughout the day. But that's exactly how you can can get stuck holding one side of a bad bet. So now I always start small, usually 100-200 bucks on both sides, and increase as they get filled. It is more work but I think it's worth it.

An interesting thing I have discovered in the past couple months of doing this is that the path towards market efficiency isn't always a straight line. In fact, it usually isn't. For instance, say a money-line opens at -110. It might drift around all day, going to -105, then -111, then -117, then -122, then back to -117 and maybe closes at -115. It's not like it simply goes from -110 to -115. I believe that's called a 'random walk'. It's more similar to the stock market than I think I realized. Numbers get bought up and then the buyers lose steam and it starts going the other way. I've been so conditioned to 'follow steam' but sometimes that just means buying a number at the top. So if you do only get one side filled and have the market move against you, don't panic and go for a 0 arb, especially if there's plenty of time before the game starts. Of course, this isn't always the case but being this on top of so many market moves this season, I must admit I have learned more about markets in general and chasing steam is not the end all be all.

Another tip is to consider how far out the game is. I used to make offers on next day games but those got crushed. I never do that now. I generally wait for a few hours before game time before offering anything.

Also good to know is that liquidity comes in exponentially. In other words, way more money gets bet on a game the closer it gets. You'll be shocked at first at the flurry of orders that can get matched in the last 5 minutes before a game starts.

Overall, my ROI on there after about two months is just under 2% with a lot of volume. And that's with a good chunk of run bad in there, too. After my first weeks and nearly 400 bets, I was actually down a small amount. I honestly couldn't believe it considering how much I was beating the close, or at least how much it felt like I was. So I spent some time and looked back on a bunch of my bets and looked up the Pinnacle closing line. Sure enough, I was beating it on nearly all of my bets. It was just running bad and ever since then it's been a steady climb up. It goes to show the variance that can happen. If I didn't know better, I could have easily gotten discouraged and given up right before it turned around. So you do need to have a little bit of balls to grind away at it, day after day. Especially with baseball. What a grind baseball is, huh?

Since starting with NoVig, I have had one overall losing week out of 8, and that losing week was less than one unit. The wins aren't massive by any means, but with so many bets every day, the variance does tend to smooth itself out a bit. It's way less lumpy than NFL betting. Between the promo's I still get and NoVig, I'm honestly surprised when I have a losing week at all. 

As for exchanges in general, I am starting to come around to the idea that they are the future. It would certainly be on brand as the world gets more and more decentralized. If we can decentralize taxi cabs and hotels, we certainly can with sports books. The only action that I now give DraftKings or FanDuel or BetMGM are on their promos/odds boost and off market numbers. (Speaking of which, I could not believe how many arbs I was able to hit during the World Cup. Big, juicy 10+ cent arbs on stuff I was able to get over $2k down on the soft side of.)

To be honest, I'm actually a little bit worried about my DK stock now. I'm just about break even with it now sitting at 25ish a share. Next time it pumps I think I will trim some. I know sports books offer something slightly different than exchanges and exchanges can be a bit intimidating to a n00b, I suppose. But that's the case with anything new. I think that long-term, like 50 years, sports books will mostly be a thing of the past. I think they'll always exist in the same way that taxi's still exist, but the writing is on the wall. The future is decentralization.

That's about it for me today. I had an amazing World Cup, I must say. The amount of arbs and half-scalps I was able to get were incredible. (Here's an example off the top of my head: BetMGM had 'both teams to score' on the final game at -105. At the same time, I was able to get 'both teams not to score' matched at NoVig at +120. And I was able to get a little over $2k down at BetMGM. That's just one example of many). I couldn't believe how many live arbs there were, too. Live arbing is nerve wracking but I love it. I gotta admit, I was into soccer this year. The tourney was great entertainment. The diving and acting are so hard to watch and it is such a non-American sport, but it was fun to follow along and again like I said, the betting opportunities were excellent.

Up next I will dive into Bitcoin and my big boy plan/purchase. Until then, thanks for reading and bye for now!

Taking My Shot

I began my investing journey in early 2020, 6ish years ago. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing and just learned on the fly. I downloaded Robinhood and started with a $500 deposit. I've been adding money to RH and trading ever since. My ROI on everything right now is 20%ish, which isn't great. But that's with BTC being in a bear market and a big chunk of my holdings are BTC. My ROI was over 100% a few months ago.

And while it hasn't made me rich, investing has been awesome so far, to be honest. I love it. Slow and steady, never borrowing money, never going all in on anything, never doing anything stupid. Not even any options. Just trading stocks and crypto (mostly BTC).

And while it has been worthwhile, I can't help but feel that I've missed out somewhat. I have not made anything close to life changing sums. And while I didn't expect to in 5 years, I feel like I should have more. And with BTC kind of doing exactly what it always does, when it always does, now feels like the right time. You gotta take a risk if you want the gainz. And I have decided to finally take my shot.

So I borrowed a big chunk of money recently and I am going to use nearly all of it to buy BTC. I refuse to watch the bear market turn into a 10x bull market again from the sidelines, happy to make a few grand. I want my lambo! (not really but you know what I mean). I'm taking my shot! 

When I actually deploy the money I'll get more into the technicals so you guys can follow along. But for now I just wanted it out there. I have always been so cautious with investing but maybe a little bit to my own detriment. I have nearly 6 years in the game now. I'm far from an expert but I'm past the n00b level by now for sure.

Honestly, I spent the entire 4th of July thinking about this. And the conclusion I came to after some intense thought was 'why didn't I do this sooner'?

So I'm doing it! Fuck it! It's all fake fucking worthless numbers on a screen anyway.

Expect a fun update from me soon.

Bye for now!

I Think This Ends In War

I've been a little bit down since we last spoke, I must admit. The news, and maybe more importantly, the reaction to the news has somewhat floored me. 

If you don't know what I'm referring to (and I wouldn't even blame you, really, since the corporate media seems to be going out of its way to NOT cover a lot of this) here is a shortlist:

-This one has been in the news a lot obviously but Karmelo Anthony, a black high school student, murdered a White high school classmate in cold blood. Just about everyone knows this. However, he was sentenced to 30 plus years in jail and the reaction from the black community has been breath taking. Even for me, somewhat of an expert in this field at this point, the reaction by quite literally every single black person/account I have seen comment on this case was in support of Anthony. Saying he was justified in plunging a knife into the heart of his 17 year old classmate because he, Austin Metcalf, dared to ask Anthony to leave their tent, where Anthony went for the express purpose of getting into a confrontation. It's like one of them smoking on the subway or talking during the movies or cutting in line. It's a dare, an open invitation for violence. Anyone who has been out in a city a few times knows exactly what I'm talking about.

-Henry Nowak, a British teenager, was stabbed to death by a Muslim guy in a turban who, apparently, are allowed to walk around Britain with gigantic 'ceremonial' knives (I'd LOVE for some Euro cuck to explain the difference between a regular knife and a 'ceremonial' one). When the police arrived on scene, they handcuffed Henry, the kid who was stabbed! He bled out with handcuffs on, all because the Muslim guy told police that Nowak said something racist to him.

-Also in Britain, the Muslim Rape Gang report was released a few weeks ago. It states that something like 250,000 young girls have been systematically raped, tortured, abused, drugged, killed and kidnapped by gangs of Muslim men since the 70's. The report itself reads like something out of horror novel you'd have to send a check to purchase. It was largely ignored by the media/BBC, and some of the reactions to it, particularly by women, have been shocking, to say the least.

-A French 17 year old was beat to death by Muslims, who went back to the scene hours later and filmed the boy dying. They laughed and literally had a party over his dying body.

-New York just elected a woman, Daraliza Avila Chevalier, for local government who said that America deserved 9/11, among many other things:

-Oh yea, a disabled man was nearly be-headed in Belfast. Almost forgot about that one.

-Another Muslim guy tried to stab a group of school children. After he was thankfully subdued, a group of women held hands around him and made a human shield to protect him. To protect the guy who just tried to murder multiple children, right in front of them.

I could quite literally go on and on. But it's all the same: White people being either murdered, raped, stolen from or replaced in their home countries. Often, all four. 

And to be totally honest, I'm a little bit split over everything.

On the one hand, I sometimes think, am I just being manipulated by social media? The algorithms want me scrolling while appalled, and I sure do do that sometimes. 

But on the other much bigger hand, I see a grim, dark future. Maybe not for me, but if nothing changes, definitely for my children and their kids. Because where does all this lead? I mean it's no secret that just about every single non-White race out there seems to openly fucking despise us. That seems to be the core tenant of modern leftism today when you think about it. 

It doesn't look like voting our way out of this is an option, either. We can barely get anything done with Trump in office. It feels like with just one term of the next 'Democrat' president, we're going to get absolutely flooded with third world immigrants again, on top of 'pathways to citizenship' for the ones already here. I really do think that things are going to get worse before they ever start to get better.

So I just don't know, really. I've been really down about it at all. The 'empathy' people laughing at a report that states 250k young British girls were systematically raped on an industrial scale with politicians and police in on it. Every single black person on earth siding with Karmelo Anthony. 

The one good thing though I will say is that at least the conversation is changing. People are waking up, bit by bit. Every normie I've talked to about the Karmelo Anthony trial has been as flabbergasted as me. One of my friends said 'are we missing something?' which I thought encapsulates it fairly well. 

Yea, we're missing something alright. 

They hate us. They tell us they hate us. They video themselves beating children to death. They're proud of scamming welfare and food banks and whatever else they can possibly scam. They stab our children and our women create a human barrier around them, with the blood of 4 years olds still hot, dripping off his knife (which he is legally allowed to carry due to his 'religion').

I really do typically hate doomerism like this. It isn't productive. And I always remember in the back of my mind, every generation thinks some version of 'it's all over!' There's a famous quote by Socrates from 400 BC: "The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they alone knew everything and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for girls, they are forward, immodest and unwomanly in speech, behaviour and dress." 

So does it always feel like this? Will I be an old man one day, looking back and thinking 'boy that was a dumb thing to have been worried about'? Or will it be the exact opposite? I bet a lot of people in Europe wish they had done things differently 20 years ago as The Camp Of The Saints comes to life. (By the way, you must read that book if you haven't. It's scary how accurate it was, although honestly, if anything it wasn't harsh enough, given what we've seen now. Camp Of The Saints, and even Atlas Shrugged, mostly positioned the 'looter/migrant' class as shamelessly throwing their helplessness and ineptitude in our faces, saying 'it's your duty to save us!' They missed some of the anger though, in my opinion. The resentment. The envy. The burning, dumb anger in these peoples eyes).

Anyway, that's about where I am right now with it all. Like, am I being genocided? Right now? I mean, I just watched the 2 part Real Housewives Of Rhode Island reunion. I live on a cul de sac. I can't claim to be a victim of anything right now, really. Well except for nearly half of my income being effectively stolen from me. But is that part of the insidiousness of it all? How quiet it is? Busses full of fighting age men from the third world being dropped off in Nowheresville, Ohio in the middle of the night. Boat after boat filled with nothing but young men washing ashore in France and Britain, being welcomed with new phones and new houses. Funding our own demise. Video after and video of groups of black kids stomping on someones head. Before 2020, how many times had you seen a video of someone getting their head stomped on? How many videos did you see of women getting knocked out? How many have you seen since? 

So where does this all lead? Both parties are getting more and more extreme. Is this the end result of every Democracy? Eventually the parties inch further and further apart, one side votes to take the resources from the other side and it slowly gets worse and worse until there is war. 

Look at this tweet. It's supposed to be 'evidence' of people harmed or killed for the USAID cuts. We (you) are expected to pay for the diesel inside of ambulances in Libera, Africa. Anything short of this is murder.

Honestly, really read that tweet. Think about what all of that implies. That these people have no agency whatsoever, even expecting them to pay for their own fuel for their ambulances is too much of an ask. The burden falls on you, American taxpayer four thousand miles away, for some inexplicable reason. And this isn't a fringe view at all. Roughly half of all people in this country feel this way.

So that's why I think that this ends in war. One side says the other owes it infinity dollars for an infinite amount of time and they are not interested in talking it out anymore. You throw in the SCOTUS decision that just came out today that basically says that everyone on the planet is an American, and I see darkness ahead.

I know I'm a bit scattered with it. I'm honestly not 100% sure how I feel about everything. I don't even want to be thinking about this shit. I want to talk about sports betting and Bitcoin and Fourth of July hot-dog eating contests. But we can't just keep moving and paying and pretending not to see things. I know I don't want America to be less White and I know I don't give a fuck what anyone thinks about that. I know that nearly half of this country treats the other half like they're owed something from them, forever. And I know I'm done pretending not to notice really obvious and important things. 

Random things:

-This picture could go down in history. That is Scott Weiner, one of the most far left, pro trans rights LGBT-whatever politicians out there. This guys has gotten actual laws passed to further 'trans rights'. And here he is, getting booed out of some weirdo, trans march in San Fran. Reminds me of a great passage in (again, sorry I keep mentioning this book but it really got things right) Camp Of The Saints where one of the White, liberal activists who was on the ship of migrants and helped organize it in the first place, is shoved off it to his death. It says something like as he fell from the boat, in the time it took to hit the water, he realized his entire lifes work was nothing but a lie. They threw him overboard the second they could.

-Here's some perspective on things. This fourth of July, ask your boomer aunts and uncles, which do they think is more? Per 100k deaths per year, people dying from the heat in Europe? Or people dying from gun murders in America? It's nearly 500% MORE Euro cucks dying from the heat. (How fucking pathetic is that, by the way? Imagine living somewhere where they tell you you're not allowed to buy an AC unit? Has Europe always been this cucked?) Now imagine only White gun murders. That number would be less than 2.

-A 14 year old black kid was arrested for the armed robbery of an 11 year old White kid at his lemonade stand. They pulled a gun and took the cash box. The second suspect is still on the loose. Can you imagine this story with the races reversed? Your brain literally can't do it. Go ahead, try right now. Try to picture it in your head. Why do we live like this? 

-Two new Canadians pouring their used oil right down a catch basin. Can you imagine the shit like this that goes on everyday, completely unnoticed? 

-Isn't diversity great?

-Look at how they talk about us. This is Chauntyll Allen, a school board member at St Paul Public school (@SPPS_News).

-Oops! Honest mistake, I'm sure.

-When Reddit has to decide between pretending to care about 'sex workers' or black peoples 'lived experiences':

-This is the shit that was going on before the 'colonizers' came.

-Lastly, this headline was too much to ignore. This is 100% real: 

Report: Female cop shoots Jewish rabbi outside Pornhub office in Canada while hiding from Marxist gunman who killed immigrant officer named Mohamed

Here's the video

The Most Fun Betting I've Had In Years

One thing that has always sort of bothered me about my current betting set up is the square action I give at Pinnacles price. I have a deal with someone/something where I can book anything at Pinnacles price for pretty much any amount. It's always good to have access to a sharp book for the 'hard' side of arbs and scalps. It's a good deal for me but an even better one for the guy booking my Pinnacle bets. I am almost always trying to lose any bet I place at Pinny's price (because I almost always have the opposite side for bigger at a soft site. This would be the 'soft' side of the arb). 

This arrangement has worked fine for years and years. But I am constantly giving this guy money and once I saw the promos and deals I get from square books, it occurred to me that I should be getting something back from the Pinny side. Since that is not going to happen, however, I started thinking about ways to get down at even better prices. But who has better sharp prices than Pinnacle? No one, really, or so I thought. But then I noticed something called 'NoVig' having the best prices on all the odds screens. I could tell from their lines that they were an exchange and I had always assumed those were illegal ever since Matchbook closed to the US. I clicked through to them one day and saw that they were an exchange and were perfectly legal in my state! I had no idea. How did that news possibly not reach me? 

Well anyway, to make a long story short, I opened an account on NoVig. And let me tell you something. I have not had as much fun or gotten better prices betting in maybe a decade. I used to use Matchbook way back in the day and I forgot how awesome exchanges are. You can't believe the prices I am getting! I almost always make markets instead of taking them and I get nice fat arbs all day. I used to pat myself on the back for beating the close by a few cents, but lately I am smashing it. Consistently, too. 

Something about NoVig feels perfect for me, too. There's enough liquidity that you can get down a decent amount, but there's also not so many people on there that everything is razor sharp, 1 cent lines. There's room enough to get in there on both sides of most games. If you're betting under $1k a game, there's more than enough to eat on there.

This is another one of those things that I can't believe I wasn't already using. I almost can't even describe how fitting an exchange is for me and the way I bet, especially these days. I really am a trader at heart. I can't wait to use this for NFL. And I don't have to worry about cover or getting limited or anything.

So I have replaced my 'hard arb side' book where I am trying to lose with one where I am not only paying way less juice, but one where I actually expect to make a profit. I've already doubled my balance on there in less than two weeks.

I will probably do another post down the line more about using an exchange, tips and tricks and the way I make it work for me. But for now I just wanted to give a little update in case anyone else out there didn't know about these guys. I gotta say, I can't remember ever seeing a single ad for NoVig and I'm positive I would have noticed. 

That's it for me today, just a quick update. I have been betting way more since getting this account though so expect some more betting posts soon. Bye for now!

Trump, Iran, Shocking Graphs And More

 I want to get to quite a few different things today so let's dive right in.

First off, the newest legal book I had in my cross-hairs was BetMGM. I deposited the $1500 max to get the $1500 in free bets and put them to use. Other than those, they give out decent promo's somewhat regularly. They aren't as frequent as DK, but they're sometimes $250 max which is nice. You have to hunt for them too, a little bit. I just found a 25% deposit match up to $400 deposited buried in my promotions. The sports book itself is very unremarkable and the app is atrocious. By far the worst sports book app I've used yet. Slow, buggy, non-intuitive. Once my promos get nerfed I'll be pretty much out of there. 

My Fanatics promos have all become $10 max so I'm pretty much done there, too. I actually feel a little bit foolish even talking about these accounts, but it's really the only betting thing I have going on right now. The bonus's and promo's were great and absolutely worth doing, but clearly they don't last if you have any kind of brain. One thing I have done on DK that I haven't anywhere else is buy some merch from them. I wonder if that's worth doing early on with a new account just for longevity. It is fun using the 30% boosted parlays as hedges of each other and keeping these parlay ladders going. It's worth a couple hundred bucks a week, only takes like an hour a day, max, and it keeps the wheels moving in the NFL offseason. 

Up next I'm looking at Caesar's sports book. After that, that will be all of the obvious ones. Then it might get interesting again. Look at me, a bonus hustler in 2026, lol.

The 'war in Iran' is top of the news lately, of course, and since literally no one asked me, I thought I might offer an opinion. My take on this war is very similar to Matt Walsh's, whom you may have heard. (By the way, how about Matt Walsh coming out of nowhere, huh? I find myself agreeing with him often). 

Anyway, my view is that maybe it is a good thing to finally deal with Iran right now. I don't know, and neither do you or anyone else. No one knows how it's going to shake out or what it'll look like in 5 or 25 years. If I had to bet, I would say that in 10 years we'll look back and conclude that like most of our Middle Eastern military adventures, it was a big waste in the end. Iran will still exist, they will still despise us, and they'll still be tinkering around with getting a nuke. What good did two decades in Afghanistan do? But who knows!

But you know what I do know? I know that this 'operation', or whatever we're calling it, is not only risky for America and Trump, but hugely expensive and wildly unpopular. And the potential benefit is nebulous, at best. We assassinate their leaders and what happens? They get new leaders. 

You know what else would be hugely expensive and mostly unpopular? Mass deportations. Mass. Like, all of them. It would cost a lot and the media would make it look absolutely brutal. But imagine the payoff! Imagine this gigantic, beautiful, powerful ship that is America, once and for all, finally cutting loose the anchor we've been dragging around for nearly 70 years now. And not only are we dragging this anchor, but the anchor gets heavier by the minute. All the extra waste, the fraud, the incompetence, right here at home. Finally, really, actually cleaning up America, in America, and not blowing things up in Iran. Who fucking cares about Iran!? We should barely know Iran exists! There's more than enough to do here at home. 

So my point is that if Trump is going to take this big risk, I would just much rather have it done with deportations. Something that would actually help Americans. That would be nice if the government thought like that, no?

And while we're on the subject, boy it sure is interesting the pull that Israel has. That dot of a country. I cannot tell you how sick of hearing about Israel I am. I don't know why we're so involved with them at all, honestly. Jews and Arabs have been fighting over the same patch of land since, almost literally, the dawn of time. Since they started fighting, how much collective energy do you think has gone into them throwing/firing/launching projectiles at each other? And knocking them down? First it was rocks by hand, now it's munitions by launchers, but it's all the same. Desert people launching projectiles at their neighbors while we, somehow, foot the bill for these projectiles going both ways. We give Palestine aid in the form of irrigation pipes and they turn in them into rocket launchers. I say we let them figure it out. Let someone win, honestly. It isn't our fight. That might sound harsh but if someone had won 500 years ago, how many deaths would that have prevented? I mean, what else? More peace talks? More cease fires? It'll never work. It seems that what we're doing now is the worst possible tactic. Be involved but only kind of. Just keep it going but no decisive wins. Man, if I didn't know any better I would think that arms dealers had some sort of sway in our federal government!! 

Think about the energy that goes into carrying out an offensive war in the Middle East. The amount of people involved, the flights and truck rides, the phone calls, the planning, making the munitions, delivering everything...I mean just the sheer manpower. Imagine all of that energy right here back at home focused on quick, efficient deportations, done right, along with completely cleaning up as much fraud as possible. Imagine the dent you could put in in three years. Probably worth north of 5 figures a year for the average taxpayer.

-Shifting gears somewhat, here is an absolutely mind boggling chart. Maybe most one of the most telling, gruesome, insidious charts you'll ever see.

That is data from the Danish Ministry of Finance, one of the few remaining White countries that track and publish findings like this. It's obviously the annual net cost to the country per person by their rape conviction rates (so that doesn't include every single rape that goes unreported, ones that do get reported but are never charged, and ones that do get reported, charged, but not convicted. So we're probably talking close to only something like 50% of all total rapes to begin with on this chart). 

And the shocking part isn't the positive correlation. No, by now we're quite familiar with charts like this these days. It's the exponential correlation. That isn't a straight line going up and to the right. It's a hockey stick. Think about that! The more of the publics money they get, the more rapes they get convicted for, exponentially. And of course rape doesn't happen in a vacuum. I think it's safe to say that anyone who would rape someone is capable of carrying out other anti-social and heinous acts. Think of the damage that gets publicly funded! They put out a graph like this and people just go about their day. I don't know what else needs to happen, really.

-Here we have a 'shooting and stabbing gene'. I swear to god, future people will look back on this time period with such utter confusion.

 

-Warren Buffet did an interview a few weeks ago on the CNBC morning show which was pretty good. He totally missed it on Bitcoin but he's what, 90 something? His track record speaks for itself. He said a few interesting things but the one that make me think was what he said about Washington. The interviewer asked him something about the relationship between business and government and he said something along the lines of 'I can't believe how important it's become' (meaning sucking up to the government). 'That's where the money gets handed out and the rules are made, I suppose' is roughly what he said as well. It just made me think, he's been around obviously for a long time and in his time, he's seen the role and importance of the Federal government just grow and grow. And he would be a perfect guy to notice and know something like that. I've noticed it too, in my much shorter and less accomplished life. Where do we think this is headed? Once they have it, governments don't typically give back power by choice. Is it just a slow march to true oligarchy? 

-By now, I'm sure you've heard about the story with the dozen or so high ranking scientists who have disappeared or died. Super creepy. Also kind of the plot of 3 Body Problem which is on Netflix which is an incredible show. I don't know what to make of it, but with it being ten of them now, there is basically no chance that they aren't related to each other somehow. 

-Anyway, that's it for me today. I'll have something up again soon. Bye for now!

SECOND Update On Last Post. Important!

I know this is busch league here with the multiple updates on one post, but I must correct something I said about Fanatics in my 'Reviews, Tips and Tricks' post. It's a much bigger deal than the first update, the one about bet sizing with odd amounts. It's actually super embarrassing on my end, to be honest. Let me explain.

In my last post, I said this:

"Fanatics also offers a decent little loyalty program with 'Fancash' and different tiers. Very similar to DK, just called different names. You earn a little bit of 'Fancash' for every bet and just like DKs Crowns, you can think of it like cash. They have certain games with '2x Fancash rewards' every day."

And I have to say, when I wrote that 'like cash' sentence, it didn't quite feel exactly right. It just seemed a little too good to be true and guess what. It is. Let me tell you why and how I found out.

I'm going to tell you a fairly embarrassing story that happened to me yesterday. As embarrassing as it is, it would feel even worse to me if I didn't tell it here. Just remember that I didn't have to tell this, the promo game is still somewhat new to me and I have come to understand that this is the only way I really learn shit. Trial and error. 

Anyway, on to the story.

So yesterday I had a little bit of time to myself during the day so I had all my accounts open and was working through the rewards, taking my time to try to use them as perfectly as possible (this will be funny a minute). I see one I get often from DK: "20% odds boost on any bet but it has to be +300 or higher". For these, I generally look for anything that is as close to +300 as possible. I've been able to find arbs with Pinnacle with the promo. Usually I'll arb at least some of it, sometime the whole thing. If I can get the other side at a price better than Pinnacle or have it be a part of another promo or odds boost, I'll usually arb away. Anyway, yesterday I found a decent looking money-line on a Womans CBB game of +370. With the odds boost I could get it at +444. I had Fanatics open at the same time and saw they had the opponent at -425 which was better than Pinnacle. Not only that, but I had two $100 free bets available on DK as well. I always try to save them for an underdog bet I need anyway. So this was great, it was like 3 birds with one stone. I could use the 20% promo, I could use the two free bets optimally, I could use the $100 free bet promo on Fanatics if I wanted to, and, even better, I could make the -425 bet on Fanatics with my Fancash and turn it into dollars. This was a really good spot, honestly. A little too good in hindsight.

So I fire everything on Draft Kings and literally the second I hit confirm on my last DK bet, Fanatics goes from -425 to -500. Brutal. Bit of a bad omen, perhaps but this kind of thing happens sometimes. Whatever, I still have to close this arb and -500 was still better than Fanduel or Pinny. My position on DK was $100 to win $1084 (if you count the free bets as zero at risk which I do and I think is correct) so I could still easily arb out at -500.

So I make my first bet and risk all of my 'Fancash' to win something like $120. It was something like 575 in Fancash to win $120. Then I made another bet with regular cash, something like 500 to win another 100. I wanted to lock up money no matter what but I wanted the bigger payout if/when the huge favorite won.

So the game was last night and the big favorite won. However, I notice my Fanatic account has like $500 in cash plus Fancash less than it should. I instantly knew what happened, honestly, but I read the Fancash terms closely anyway. You see, they plaster everywhere 'bet with Fancash and win real cash!' What they don't tell you, however, is that you don't get the Fancash you put at stake back! So by making a bet with Fancash at -500, I essentially turned 575 bucks into 120. I used it in the worst possible way. 

To make it even worse, I was talking to their chatbot trying to get in touch with a human to ask about it, and I said I might close my account over it. And they fucking instantly closed my account, lol. I got it turned back on quickly so I actually do have to commend them for that I suppose, but man oh man, I have a much less warm and cozy feeling there now.

You see, yesterday was a Monday which means I was doing my weekly accounting for the prior week. This was the day I had to sort of officially decide what I was calling 'Fancash' for my official records. I had built up a decent amount and while you can't withdraw or convert it to cash, you can bet with it and receive cash winnings. I tend to think of anything that I can bet with as cash. In my mind, I could bet both sides of an event and move it to a different book, essentially turning it into cash for a fee. 

(Possible interesting/usable nugget here: You can also use the Fancash to get better odds on your normal bets. When you make a bet, they give you options to purchase odds boost in exchange for Fancash. When my account was brand new, I could get a 50% odds boost for 5 Fancash with a $25 max bet. I actually did the math on it and it's slightly -EV if you treat the Fancash as actual cash. A 50% boost on a $25 max bet is worth something like 4 bucks, if I remember correctly. I don't have it in front of me. I'm a bit retarded with this kind of stuff to be honest but I'm quite sure that's right. Anyway, I would use these boosts here and there, occasionally using like 5 or 6 of them in a row on one bet. I think somewhat intuitively I knew it was a good deal. And now I'm almost positive it was because A) those promo's have all become $10 max bets now and B) the Fancash has to be heavily discounted. If I had known what I know now, I would have unloaded as much as possible on those odds boosts bets. So to sum up this nugget: if you have Fancash, use it on odds boosts before they get reduced. I'm almost positive that that is the optimal way to use it).

So that's about it for that story. I grind out these promos every day, 10 bucks here, 20 here, and then in one play I manage to turn a 20% boost, 575 'Fancash', and two hundred dollar free bets into something like negative six hundred bucks, if you count the Fancash as dollars and the free bets as $100 each, plus get noticed in a truly awful way by Fanatics. I mean, really. That is fucking something else man. That has got to be, far and away, the single worst trade I have ever made in my entire life, by a long shot. Fucking classic. I can barely believe I'm writing this!

I suppose the lesson here is that while these newer, online, app only sports books do offer really good bonuses that are 100% worth taking advantage of, you still have to read the fine print. Maybe this Fancash 'you lose the staked amount' thing is standard and I'm a dope for not knowing that. That is a favorite, honestly. It really did seem way too good to be true now that I think about it. You could still pretty easily turn it into cash in a round about way but it'll cost you some juice and you've gotta be creative with it. One thing is for sure though, using Fancash to bet on a massive favorite is without a doubt the single worst possible way to use it. But hey, at least now I can say I'm pretty close to an expert in Fancash! 

That's it for today. I imagine I'll have more to say about this in the future. I have my next legal sports book in my cross hairs so I'll have updates on that soon too. Bye for now!

Update On Last Post Plus A Little Bit More

 Quick update on my last post. I think I gave some bad information and it's been bothering me a little bit. You see the dedication I have?!

In my last post, I said this:

"(pro tip: bet absolutely retarded amounts sometimes. Like $243.86 to win $236. I don't have any proof exactly, but I think betting like that makes you look square. You definitely shouldn't bet to win perfect, even amounts all the time. Squares do not bet like that.)"

And that is actually bad advice. The reason is that you look like you're doing a perfect arb and I have come to learn that the legal books of the world absolutely do check for and notice stuff like that. What I really meant was that if you're betting a line of, say, -123 to win $250, don't always bet exactly $307.5 to win $250. Instead, bet $250 to win $203.25. That is how squares bet. They generally have a few units in mind and bet them accordingly, whether the line is +123 or -123. It's not a huge deal either way, but now that I'm thinking about cover a lot more, on my next fresh account, I'm going to do that '$250 to win $203.25' style of betting for my first week or so of betting. Betting perfect amount is obviously neater and easier for record keeping but they're looking at it and it's something to keep in mind.

In other news, and way off topic, I recently finished a TV show I had never even heard of before and it was tremendous. It's called Pantheon and it was originally on AMC but is now on Netflix. It's an animated show all about uploading consciousness onto the internet/cloud. Really, really cool and I couldn't believe how under the radar it was. I think people may have thought it was an anime type show because of the artwork but it isn't at all. And have you noticed how much better the voices are in animated shows lately? A lot of shows get actual actors to do the voices and it makes such a difference. Give this show an episode and see what you think. It keeps getting better as it goes on, too.

That's all for today, I should have another post up soon. Thanks for reading!

Oh and I haven't done one of these for a while:

Bitcoin price: $66k

Bitcoin marketcap: $1.33T

Bitcoin dominance: 57.8%

Total crypto marketcap: $2.29T

Cryptos on coinmarketcap: 47.5M

Draft Kings Vs Fanduel Vs Fanatics. Reviews Plus Tips And Tricks.

 First off, before I jump in, I just want to say that I think the past couple months of posts here may have been a little sub-standard. I believe I may have gotten a bit too loose/sloppy writing at times. If you're a regular reader here, you can expect a bit more thoughtfulness going forward. I'm not talking about the content, just the style of writing.

Anyway, since I am on the absolute cutting edge of the sports betting world, I have recently discovered...you ready for this...LEGAL online sports books! 

OK obviously I'm like a decade behind here and I'm really only half joking, but I have to admit, I did not fully understand how much these books were offering until fairly recently. I've talked about it before but I was always so used to the wild wild west days of illegal sports betting where getting money on and off these sites was a nightmare, at best, and the promos all had miles of fine print and crazy roll over requirements. 

When I was just starting out, I ran a BoDog/Bovada account up from $500 to $13k, grinding mostly $100 to $200 bets at a time, before they finally gave me the boot. And let me tell you, actually getting that money was almost like a part time job. I'm not kidding. Just to get it processed took days, if not weeks. Among many other hoops they had me jump through, at one point they sent me a paper packet type thing that I had to fill out by hand and fax back to them. I was at a public library in Henderson NV (this was when I lived in LV) making multiple pencil shaving copies of my debit card to send in to them, plus copies of my license. They seemed to be looking for any excuse not to pay me. When they finally processed the withdrawal, I had to take the money in the form of multiple pre-paid debit cards, each loaded with something like $2k that I had to withdraw from an ATM. Every time I tried to use one, it would have something like a 25% chance of working. So I would always be out and about on the strip with a card or two on me, trying them out as I came across ATM's. It would usually not work, but about one in four times the ATM would spit out $2k. It was actually kind of funny. They sent me something like a card a month. From the time they kicked me out to when I finally had all the money in my hands was something like 6 months. And that was a successful withdrawal story! The amounts of horror stories I have heard and read about are endless. Plus with the success I was having with PPH books, any kind of real sportsbook that you had to deposit money onto was pretty much a non starter for me until quite recently.

As you may know, I started with Draft Kings for this most recent football season and have been pleasantly surprised. I've since added Fanduel and now Fanatics and have been using all three quite a bit now, so I thought I would offer a detailed review of all three along with some sneaky little tips and tricks on how best to use the promos, odd boosts, free bets, 'fancash', 'Crowns', and the sites themselves. 

Again, I realize this is like 7 years late and a chunk of my readers will have burned through their DK and FD accounts by now, but if not, this could definitely be of some use to you. Even if you just ate up the welcome bonuses and stopped using them, you might be surprised at what's available.

OK so let's start with Draft Kings. I've discussed them a few times on here before but I've learned a lot more about their promos and the site in general since, so here goes.

(By the way I suppose I should mention, I get absolutely zero dollars from anyone. So none of this is an ad or part of any kind of affiliate scheme or anything like that. If it was, there would be a referral link somewhere. If anyone out there would like to pay me for things, feel free to reach out. If I ever do accept any kind of money, which I severely doubt will ever happen, I would tell you guys about it).

First off, DK is an impressive book. Honestly, it may be the single best all around sports book I've ever had an account at. Getting money on and off is almost hilariously simple and quick, especially compared to how things used to be. If you link your bank account, you will have your withdrawals sometime within hours. Never more than 24 hours. If you don't want to do that, they have all kinds of options, including venmo. They also offer a truly astounding amount of markets, easily the most I've ever seen. Most of them are drowning in juice, useless one way markets, but a good chunk of them aren't. 

Their juice is standard. Worse than sharp books but not as bad as most square ones. 

They are, as far as I know, the industry leader for live betting. They're pretty ballsy with it, I have to admit. They put up a line on a game and pretty much leave it open for the entire game. They're quick to move, which isn't ideal, but it is impressive.

The best thing about DK though, in my opinion, is the rewards. I have come to learn that optimally using these rewards is a skill on its own. So here is how I use them. 

First off, anytime I log into DK, the first thing I click on is the rewards tab. That brings you to a page where you have all your available Promos there to see. First thing I do is browse them and opt-in to anything I may use. I don't recommend auto opting-in to everything, only because I assume that is something they look at. For me, anything 30% or above is generally worth using. Any kind of bonus on any kind of straight bet is almost always worth using.

Once you've opted in to your various Promos, while still in the Rewards tab, you then click on Rewards. This shows you everything you've opted in to so far. When I first got the account, most of my bonuses had a $200 max. Now this is very important. You always want to be maxing out the reward, even if you don't want that full $200 at risk. Mathematically, and in a vacuum, you will make the most amount of money just letting these bets ride. However, you might want to scalp some or all of it out in order to guarantee yourself profit. If you can find a +EV number on the other side, or (especially) if you can bet the other side with some kind of bonus or odds boost from another account, then you're really cooking. We'll get more into that later.

Here's a great little DK tip I just stumbled upon myself. There's a tab at the top called 'VIP'. For whatever reason, I had never clicked on it before. I decided to the other day, and it takes you to a page where you just send them an e-mail asking to be a VIP. I did just that and I got an e-mail back from some kind of VIP host. They had me fill out a survey, (tip: always them they're only getting a small piece of your overall action, even if that isn't true. That's what they're hungry for) sent me another e-mail, then I got a promo in my account I have never seen before. It's called 'VIP Showcase'. Basically, I have to bet a certain amount inside a certain amount of time to unlock a bunch of bonus bets. It says 'round 1' so I assume there will be another round after this. With the bonuses I have from other accounts, clearing this one will be easy. Something to consider if you've never tried that before.

(Quick aside: you can just do shit like that. Way back in the day when I was playing Full Tilt poker, they announced a big rake back offer for new players only. It was a really good deal, I remember the existing player pool was pissed; why were only new players getting this deal? We've been loyal customers for years. I felt the same way so I e-mailed FT and laid out my case. And guess what? I got the rake back deal! Forever! Well, until Full Tilt lasted, at least. But it was free money that lasted a long time. Never be afraid to send e-mails like that).

So anyway, to finish up on Draft Kings, I highly recommend them. They have a nice loyalty program that gives you 'Crowns' for every bet you make. You climb through these tiers and get additional Crowns for every tier. You can treat the Crowns like cash, basically. They sometimes offer flash sales on merch and I've ordered some clothes before. They were decent quality, actually better than I was expecting. I got my wife a few things and she still wears them regularly, so that's a good sign.

There's another kind of weird section of DK called 'Pick6' in the top menu. It's a kind of DFS thing where you're basically parlaying player props. (You can't just load up on players from one team though, I've tried). I haven't done a deep dive on the math of it yet, though I will at some point. It doesn't really look to be anything special, except for the fact that they offer a bunch of promos and rewards for it that you can't see until you actually go into the Pick6 section. They're all pretty small but if you're hunting for these promos like me, they're worth using. I don't think I'll be using this Pick6 page much at all after I use up the first time promo's. 

Overall, I give DK an A+. The fact that I'm still on there and still getting rewards every day is beyond encouraging. If you thought of them as a square book that will throw you out instantly, you might be quite mistaken. Now, I do bet pretty small these days, very rarely 4 figures, so this might not apply to the real pro's. But if you are anything but a real, full time professional sports bettor, there really is no reason to not have a DK account. Even if you are a big time pro, it's worth having an account for as long as they'll have you. You won't have to worry abut getting paid at least.

My daily betting now is mostly centered around what kind of deals I get every day, and most of that has come from Draft Kings.

That is, until quite recently.

The most recent account I just opened is from Fanatics. They have a really great new customer deal out now where if you bet $100 a day for 10 days straight, you get 10 $100 dollar free bets. So basically a $1000 value. When you sign up, they give you two options, that one, or one where if you bet $5 you get $200 in free bets instantly. Something like that. The $1000 in free bets is the far better option, obviously. 

So far I have been quite impressed with Fanatics as well. It's a clear step below DK but it is for sure worth having. On top of the $1000 free bet promo, they offer daily promos and odds boost which are almost always worth using. (The only promos I don't use, in general, are same game parlay ones. If they're 30% or more I generally will. Some of them are 3 legs minimum and some are 4. You want the least amount possible, obviously. Any kind of promo on any kind of straight bet is almost always worth using, except on the one way markets).

My Fanatics promos are mostly $200 max right now which is good. They even offer stuff like a 50% boost on straight bets, usually with a $50 max. That's completely free money being offered every single day. Maybe a fifty dollar bet is beneath you, I don't know, but it isn't for me. You're fucking around on your phone or computer all the time anyway, why not make a little bit of money while you're at it?

Fanatics also offers a decent little loyalty program with 'Fancash' and different tiers. Very similar to DK, just called different names. You earn a little bit of 'Fancash' for every bet and just like DKs Crowns, you can think of it like cash. They have certain games with '2x Fancash rewards' every day. 

I haven't tried withdrawing from Fanatics yet, but I can't imagine it will be a problem. That appears to not really be a thing anymore, which is great (and quite ((yet another)) blow to libertarianism). If it is, you guys will be the first to hear about it. 

The app itself is decent, not as good as DK but perfectly fine. Not nearly as many offerings but plenty of props available. Like I've been saying though, I mostly focus on the promo's and they offer a bunch, new ones every day so far. 

Overall I give Fanatics an A-, noting that I have yet to withdraw or really use my Fancash yet. I will be giving an update on these guys in the coming months.

Lastly, we have Fanduel. Cue the sad trombone sound. 'Wah, wahhhhhhh'. Fanduel sucks, honestly. It's the worst account I have, by far. The only positives are: during the NFL season when I was really locked in, I noticed they had the best numbers on big dogs very often. Even better than Pinnacle a lot of the time. That alone makes them worth it. During NFL, with my Wong teaser strategy, I often needed to hedge a -1.5 teaser. I'd usually take at least a chunk on the dog money line, and a lot of those bets went in at FD. It's why I got the account in the first place.

The other positive is that they feel like a little bit of a dumb, slow moving target. I've caught them slow on a big line move a few times, especially live. I've picked off a couple off market in-season futures on there too, as well as seen a couple mistakes that I don't really want to name right now. Nothing egregious, but they definitely feel like the slow one in the bunch.

For rewards, they offer next to nothing. NO loyalty program whatsoever. I did get some reload bonuses in the first couple months when they might have thought I was a whale, but those have all come and gone. They offer daily promos and odds boosts, and they were decent for a little while, but they've gone from $100 max to $25 to now $10, which is basically worthless (but I still do use them, to be perfectly honest. So what! It all adds up!)

The app sucks, too. Bad color scheme, 'sticky' feeling. I would say FD is worth having for any kind of intro new customer bonus, and if you're like me and need to bet on big ML dogs as part of a bigger strategy, it's worth keeping a balance on. But it is far and away the worst account I have. I'd give it a C. (I would say D+ but they're super fast with withdrawals so I can't complain too much).

Lastly, I want to touch on how I use these promo's. 

With any kind of straight bet, I usually just bet the best number I can find and let it ride. With free bets, you generally want to bet on underdogs. Pretty straight forward. However, with parlays it can get interesting.

A big time promo that I get at DK and Fanatics is a 30 or 33% boost for a 3 team parlay. If I want to lock money up with these, I will bet on three games that are all on at different times. This is important. You want each leg to be over before the next one starts. You max out the 3 team parlay, let's say it's something like $100 to win $800. You then hedge the first bet of the parlay, to win something like $110. If the first leg of the parlay loses, you lose $100 on the parlay and win $110 on the hedge. So half the time you make a free ten bucks. Whatever - they add up. (The actual amount you want to bet to win on this first hedge is up to you. Sometimes, depending on what numbers I can get on the hedge, I might make it just to win $100. So if the first parlay leg loses, I break even. Other times I might make it to win as high as $130. But generally, if you're doing this kind of thing, you want to make it win somewhere between $105 and $120.)

If the first leg wins, now you hedge the second leg. For this hedge bet, you want to bet to win something like $225 here. It depends on the exact odds you have on the parlay, but you want to make it so if the second leg loses you still make money. If it does lose, you will lose $100 on the parlay, and the first hedge bet, which will be something like $125. So you need to bet to win at least $225 here to break even. I would bet something like to win $240 here. (pro tip: bet absolutely retarded amounts sometimes. Like $243.86 to win $236. I don't have any proof exactly, but I think betting like that makes you look square. You definitely shouldn't bet to win perfect, even amounts all the time. Squares do not bet like that.)

If the second leg wins, you simply hedge out of the last leg. You'll have a bet of something like $100 to win $800 on a team lined at -110, so hedging that is easy. You have to do some math and figure out exactly how much to bet, but it should be something around 'to win $450'. No matter what happens, if you do it right, you'll lock up something like 25-30 dollars on average. If it's a $200 max promo, just double everything.

Now you might be thinking, that seems like a lot of work for twenty five bucks. I thought the same thing at first. But you have to remember; these books are quite literally paying you to bet with them. Whether it be through Crowns or Fancash or future rewards/odds boosts, or access to VIP programs if you're regularly making normal looking hundred, two hundred or four hundred dollar bets on widely available lines, nearly every day, you're going to stack up some rewards. You can then use these rewards to keep getting more rewards, and on and on. And when you can hedge with other promo bets or bets to clear a bonus, that's even better. (One thing I will say though is that you need access to a sharp books lines for this to really work. A lot of my hedges go in at Pinnacles price, which always has way less juice than anyone else. You need the hedges to be either part or some kind of promo, better than Pinnacles price or at a reduced juice book.)

One thing I've been doing with March Madness is using two 30%, 3 team parlay promos against each other. I'll bet on opposing teams for the first leg and pre hedge the second leg, then set an alarm on my phone for 15 minutes before the last game starts. So around 70% of the time I don't have to do anything and I just lock up 25ish bucks. When the second leg wins, I evenly arb out of the last leg and take my free money.

It is a bit time consuming, I suppose, but it's nothing compared to capping props or trying to chase steam. You can do it anytime during the day and could get it all done in less than twenty minutes, really. You just have to set alarms for each leg and put in a quick bet on your phone when appropriate. Once you do it a few times you can really develop your own little system and it becomes pretty seamless. I like doing it, I think it's fun. And as I've shown, you can parlay it into access to VIP programs and other kind of rewards that you normally wouldn't get. You need to be maximizing the rewards and your access to future rewards.

Anyway, that's it for me today. I'll have another post up soon, I want to get into some more news/politics and bitcoin stuff. Thanks for reading, bye for now!