Week 10 Look Ahead

 Skipping the Week 9 recap simply because it wasn't all that interesting. I made about 5 units on the week, teasers did good but I over hedged a little bit. Dusted off some live betting too. My live betting has been super fishy this year but I kinda think that's the only reason I haven't been kicked out of or limited at any legal books yet. I have been thinking that one of them in particular is going to kick me out for over a year now. I can't believe they haven't yet. I have a good six figure sample there and I'm up over 5% lifetime. I really only bet major market straights now though and I have ordered a bunch of things from their store plus filled out a couple long surveys for them. I can't imagine that makes too much difference though. I almost don't even like to talk about it though, like I'm going to speak it into existence.

But anyway, I had basically no action on the MNF game, so the game tonight is really the start of the week for me. I thought I would outline what I have going on so far and what I'm looking at for the week, especially because tonights game is a nice juicy stand alone Wongable babe sitting at the bar, just waiting to be picked up.

Tonight we have WASH at NYG with a total of 41. The line opened at NYG-1.5 and is currently at the same line. It bounced around from PK to NYG-2.5 with the Giants taking money early and WASH taking it late. With a +1.5/2point dog playing in a stand alone game with a low total, you know I am all over this game. I have WASH +7.5/8.5 in 5 different teasers, completely maxed out. The only real question in all of this was what to pair it with. BUF -2.5 is an obvious choice and CAR +7.5 is good too, but they're both on at 1:00. The only other possible teaser leg in any non 1:00 slate is SEA at a heavy -6.5. Not terrible, pretty much break-even. So I have WASH paired with BUF and SEA, WASH paired with CAR and SEA, and some just WASH/BUF. The WASH +7.5 leg really is juicy. You can get NYG -7.5 at +299 right now on Pinnacle. I got it earlier at +303. That's a -255/+303 scalp if you can get teasers at the same price as me (which you probably can't).

I didn't go for the pure scalp though. Not by a long shot. Some of my buy back is NYG ML, a big chunk at -2.5, and a little at -3.5. All at break even (at worst) numbers on NoVig. 

I left it so I make a couple units if WASH covers +7.5 (I did get one leg at +8.5) and lose 10 if they don't. If NYG win by 1 or 2 I make about 6 units, and if they win by 3-7 I make about 15.

I do have one other bizarre looking teaser going. It's MIA +7.5 and LAR -1.5. The MIA line has moved hard against me, but the LAR line has moved in my favor. That's why I always start small with teasers and ramp up as the week progresses. 

So that's my action so far. If the WASH +7.5 leg loses tonight, I'll fire again with BUF and CAR paired with SEA. Not as hard as I am with WASH, though. The BUF and CAR games have high totals and all 4 teams have mobile QB's. Lots of two point/weird score possible shenanigans. Dumb coaches too. It would be nice if LAR fall back to -8.5 but that doesn't seem in the cards. 

That's it for now, check back soon! I have a long form post coming.

I Just Turned 40. 8 Things I Wish I Knew In My 20's.

 I mentioned on here a couple times before that I turned 40 a little while ago. It's funny, when I was a kid I couldn't imagine being 40. I remember always seeing all the 'over the hill'  Happy Birthday cards for 40 and 40 year olds use to seem so old. And now here I am. Still pretty much the same person I've always been. More responsibilities, way more perspective and experience of course, much more self-aware and less of a slave to emotions and feelings, but 40 doesn't bring about a whole new you. Wherever you go, there you are.

But anyway, I thought I would do a listicle thing here for things I wish I knew 10 to 20 years ago, sports betting/trading-wise and just overall. So here we go.

1) Don't take yourself too seriously (or not serious enough). 

I suppose this depends a bit on your personality type. If you're one to not take anything seriously at all then just invert the following advice.

When I look back on my younger years, I tend to end up at one common theme: I took myself way too seriously. I was bad at taking a joke, even though I was kind of an annoying ball buster. I could dish it but not take it. When you see that from outside, you realize how bad of a look that is. Letting an insult roll off your back, especially when it's done in any kind of joking manner, is actually powerful. I used to always think it was the opposite; that if you 'let' someone get one on you, no matter how jokey it is, then you've suffered some defeat. But that isn't the case at all. Of course, as is the case with anything, you can go too far with this. You can't be the punching bag of the group. But you don't want get the label as 'sensitive'. You don't even want to be close.

In the same vein, don't take friendship/group drama too seriously either. This is maybe a lesser important point these days since it seems like no one hangs out with anyone anymore, but when I look back at my life, I get self inflicted douche chills at a lot of the 'fights' and interpersonal drama I was involved in. It was such a waste of time and energy. None of it really mattered in the end. Like, at all. 

2) Make your own money/INVEST early.

I suppose this could be two separate ones but we'll bundle them together here. Ever since I was 14, I always had a regular job plus 'side hustles' as they're called today. Selling dime bags to friends, putting on local DIY punk shows and charging at the door, car detailing, poker (playing and running a game), booking, then finally sports betting and investing. I've always had a lot of hobbies and I'm always looking for ways to combine them with making at least a little bit of money. 

Jobs can be soul crushing. You need your own little thing that you can run 100%. Even if it just makes you something like $20k a year, if you make $100k at your job, it's like a free 20% raise. My 'side' projects have always really been my driving force when I think about it. I sort of consider myself a full time sports bettor/trader who runs a company on the side (which is half a joke since my real career takes up way more time and energy, but sports betting and trading are generally on top of mind for me always).

And for the second part: invest early. I cannot stress this enough. If I had invested some of the money I made when I was betting full time, I would honestly be pretty close to set for life. Inflation is so much worse than anyone realizes and you simply cannot keep your savings in cash. Stocks, Bitcoin, real estate; whatever you're comfortable with. Albert Einstein called compounding interest 'the 8th wonder of the world' for a reason. And these days it's super easy to do on your own, too. 

3) Make connections.

This is something I was excellent at when I first started seriously sports betting. Especially in PPH land, using other people is sort of like using leverage. You can multiply yourself exponentially. Getting accounts, finding other sharps to give accounts to (and take a piece of), and anything else you can think of. You really have no idea what's out there until you look. At this point in my life, I'm a bit more of a lone wolf, but I still have a dirty agent and know a sharp group I can tap into if I come across any accounts they can use. The thing about networking is there is no limit. You meet a guy who knows a couple guys who each know a couple guys and so on. All of a sudden you're in a different world. Something to consider if you've always been a lone wolf guy.

4) Never explain, never complain.

I got this line from the British Royal Family. It's a great line to keep in mind. For us sports bettors, it can be somewhat of a lonely existence sometimes. Literally NO ONE in your life understands what you do. I have been doing this for 20 years now, and some people in my circle still think I'm some sort of bookie. To most people, the idea of being a long term winning sports bettor is like someone being a long term winning scratch ticket winner. It just doesn't exist to them. And guess what. You are NOT going to change their minds. Don't bother trying, either. With a spouse or someone really close, if you can literally show them models, they might start to wrap their heads around it, and I've found that real finance guys can understand it. But for 99% of the people in your life, just don't worry about them understanding it. They won't, they can't, and they don't want to.

5) Have principles.

This is something I've touched on a few times here before. I don't know if this is just a me thing, or a millennial thing or what, but I feel like I didn't even understand the concept of values or principles until I was an adult. I don't ever remember hearing those words growing up. I think our parents came from a generation that had more of a 'take it as it comes' mindset. My dad has a saying which he got from his dad, which is 'let your conscience be your guide'. Sort of a 'whatever, it's all groovy' mindset. And the older I get, the more I have come to hate that idea. You need principles and values, you need to stick with them, and you need to really think about them beforehand. Stress test your ideas. Know yourself and what you care about and what's important to you and live accordingly. Be a man of your word, as best as you possibly can be. These are fundamental, important aspects to being a person, especially a man, and I feel like you're just supposed to learn that on your own at some point I guess? I don't know. It seems awfully important to not pass down. I know I will with my kid(s).

5a) Covid was an acid test for your life.

If your life was severely effected by covid/the lockdowns, you might want to revaluate things. I think you want your life to be pretty sectioned off from whatever idiot, lying, stealing, government floating head happens to say or think or do that day or term or whatever. 

Bonus sports betting specifics:

6) Know if you're a Degen Dennis or a Scared Scott.

Modeling sports had a fairly profound change on me and the way I think about things. Among others, one thing that always stuck with me is that every model you ever make will inevitably have some sort of bias. For whatever reason, models will always tend to lean one way or the other. In my first hockey play props model, it always loved guys who got a lot of primary assists. My NBA props model loved unders on slower paced teams (which was a good exploit in those days but the model liked it a little too much). You have to know what your models bias is and react accordingly. Sort of like in golf, if you know you always hit your driver so it fades left, you have to aim more right than you normally would. So know what kind of a person you are. With sports bettors, they generally fall into one of two types: the degen, spraying, over-betting type, or the too-cautious, sky is falling, can't recover after two losing weeks in a row kind of guy. Know which one you are and what to do about it. If you're somewhat of a degen, if you'll chase losses and sweat games, this may not be the smartest career path. On the other hand, you do have to be able to see money differently and a dollop of 'degen' can be a good thing. 

I've always been a little bit too scared. It keeps me in action for decades but I think I missed a chance to really swoop in for the kill when I was full time. Similar to being a good poker player, you want controlled aggression. Enter few pots/trades but be really sharp about the ones you get into.

7) Be pleasant.

Something I've gotten way better at as I age. Pretty self explanatory honestly. 'Pete, you know how often in this business it comes down to 'I just don't like that guy'!" - Mad Men.

8) Write things down.

I'd pay good money to be able to go back in time and just tell myself to start this blog 10 years earlier. One thing you start to realize as you get older is how fragile everything is. People you thought you'd be friends with forever just fall off the map. Places change and entire years can get foggy. One of the most disorientating experiences of my entire life was going back to one of my favorite college bars a year or so after I graduated. It was like being in outer space. It was like I had never been there before! Everything was different. The faces, the music, the bartenders, the atmosphere, it all felt completely new. Truly, being back in that bar for a couple hours that night is seared in my mind. It goes to show how much things change even when you don't realize it. 'You can't go back'. Maybe it's you that changes. Probably both. Either way, I think it's a good idea to have some sort of record of your life. You'll be way more thankful for it down the road than you'd think.

This applies to sports betting too. Especially modeling. When I first started making models, the only thing I cared about was getting to the output I wanted. I'd grind away for days, tweaking and reading and whatnot, and finally come up with a good model. Then the next season would roll around and I'd have such a hard time remembering what did what or why I did certain things. So give yourself little notes as you work on things.

One more thing I'll say on this topic: have kids! Don't be so afraid of it. It really does change your life for the better. It's the answer to that nihilistic, nothing matters, 'what's the point of anything' little ball way down in your stomach that never goes away. The point is to pass your genes on forever so that you can live forever in some tiny, tiny way.

I suppose that's about it for me today. Check back soon!

NFL Week 8 Recap

Weird day of games, right? Has this season been stranger than normal? Ever since covid, it feels like everything is just getting weirder and more surreal by the day and for some reason I can't quite put my finger on, this NFL season feels especially odd.

But anyway, I had an okay week. Pretty light on teasers actually, but I had a few plus some other things. Let's dive in.

Last we spoke, I just came off my best week in like 8 years. I didn't have any legs hanging over and had pretty much nothing on the MNF or TNF games, so my week was really just the one day of games yesterday.

My first position of note was on DET/MIN. I was able to get DET -3 -112 and MIN +3.5 -110 at the same time, so I hit both of those pretty hard. I also got DET -2.5 -120 and DET -3 -110 later on. I also had a 6.5 point DET +3.5 teaser leg as my PPH was dealing a heavy DET -3 where everyone else was at -3.5. I was able to get MIN +3.5 at -107 mostly, so I had a really good middle on DET winning by exactly 3. As we know they won by 4 which was kind of brutal, but that's life. Spend a week grinding a great position that wins less than 10% of the time and lose by half a point. But boy, when they hit!

The only other non teaser NFL action I had was a couple first half correlated parlays on the CIN and JAX games which went 1-1.

My 1:00 teaser legs were LV +7.5 and DAL -1.5. I mentioned that JAX looked like a good leg to maybe get in early on last week, but I was too slow. They had a fire sale and the line went from -8 to -10.5. I really hate missing stuff like that.

I passed on teasing ATL, too. Something about that team makes me stay away. I think with Penix, they're going to have a lot of variance. Get blown out some games but put up big points others. That isn't really a great team to tease. It ended up being right this time but we'll see moving forward. Plus it had a total in the 50's. A good stay-away.

LV won outright which was brutal. I had most of my NYJ buyback at ML and -1.5, mostly going for the middle. So close.

Is DAL a real fucking football team or what?? What is with them! That game going so long and losing was awful for me yesterday. Luckily I only had them in one teaser, but I had to wait so long to see if the next leg was live or not. And as we know, it was not. They were up by 10 with less than 2 minutes left! And the ARZ kicker missed the game winning EXTRA POINT. AND THEY STILL LOST! I did manage to hit ARZ ML live when it went to OT, but if DAL had won that would have made a big difference in my week.

The afternoon slate had 3 games, all of which I teased. The PATS won but didn't cover which was the only middle I hit all day. LAR crushed LAC, and the KC/DEN game was another brutality on me. I had DEN teased to +7.5 and had all my buy back on KC ML, -2.5 and -3.5. All of which would have hit if they were able to score with 1st and goal from the godamn 5 yard line with a minute left. DEN was taking timeouts! They were nearly conceding the score! But alas. Can't win every week.

All in all, a 2 unit loss for the week. A blip.

However...I did have one teaser sneak through to tonight. A chunky one too. It was the one I mentioned above with DET +3.5, DEN +7.5, and SEA +3.5. So tonight I have SEA +3.5, 8.5 units to win 12.75. I'm hedging with CHI -2.5, ML, +3.5 and a little -3.5, mostly on NoVig. So I'll lock up more than I lost last week no matter what, and have a small chance of scooping everything if CHI wins by 3. If it's a 3 point game either way, I'll do really well.

So another decent week. Goes in the books as a red one but with the pending teaser I'll be nicely up going into this week. Super close to a bunch of middles hitting. As good as this season has been so far, I honestly think that I'm actually running a little bad. It'll be interesting to check back in on this post at the end of the year.

Looking ahead it looks like deja vu with JAX looking like a good leg to jump on early at -8.5. It's a stand alone TNF game, too. I don't see anything great to pair it with though. Maybe DET but that doesn't look like a great leg at all. Perhaps CLE? That looks a little bit better. JAX looks really good though so I will start up a small position. Maybe even some more SEA +3.5? Hmmm. Time to get back to it.

Thanks for reading, talk soon!

Bink City! Best Week In Eight Years!

What a week! If you follow along here and read my last couple posts you might already know, but I just had my best week BY FAR since 2018. Back when I was full-time! Over eighty units locked up last week! Let's dive in real quick.

The big game of the day was GB/DET. I jumped on DET -3 +100 on DraftKings early in the week for a massive amount, hedging it with only GB +3.5. I was able to get -110 on GB at the time I made the DET bet, but I was nibbling on it all week, getting it as good as +108 yesterday. Going into the game I actually didn't really love my position. It was objectively great, but I made it so DET had to win by exactly 3 to win anything at all. I felt like I sucked the value out of the DET -3 bet a little too much, but the number on GB +3.5 kept getting better and better so I couldn't resist. In the end, it was essentially something like 2.3 units to win 35 on DET winning by exactly 3. These are the kinds of spots/middles I've been generating for years that feel like they never hit. And whatya know, we finally binked it last night. Truly a great feeling, especially because I went so big on it.

TB crushed CAR which was ok. I made that middle so that I still profited a couple units on TB +3 winning.

CLE/TEN ended up nearly perfect with my TEN +7.5 teaser legs winning AND my CLE ML and -2.5 winning. That was the awesome teaser leg I've been talking about in my last couple posts. Super low total, two bad offenses. This was another one where I trusted myself, got aggressive and needed the middle to hit to win anything, and thankfully it did.

The only real bummer of the day was the CLE/BAL game. If you remember, I had both teams in teasers so was really looking for a close game. When BAL got up by 13 at half, I live bet them to cover -6.5. My thinking was that I would be happy to lose that bet, seeing as it would mean that my teasers all won. I didn't think it was even possible for CIN to win by 8 or more at that point. So I lost a bit more on this game than was necessary.

As good of a week as it was, it was actually fairly close to being A LOT better. I had the big KC +8.5, SEA -2.5 middle on for the SNF game. With it being the last leg of all my teasers, I made it so I profited a decent amount no matter what, plus I hit SEA -9.5 live for a little bit. But if that middle hit on top of everything else, it would have been one of my best weeks of all time.

So I am feeling quite pleased today, I must say. I feel like I've done a great job grinding my way back up these past couple years. Arbing free bets and odds boosts, using every single possible reward, signing up for all these new legal books. Grinding away 3 cent baseball arbs on NoVig every single day all summer. It really was work and a grind, but it was worth it. Now I have healthy balances everywhere and I don't need to frantically move money around or turn it into cash. My overall ROI now since starting on NoVig is 4.5%! With way higher volume than ever before, too. I'm happy with my approach lately, too. I'm betting way less scared. In the past, even with poker, it always felt like I would get doom-switched whenever I upped the stakes, almost to the point where it felt like a self fulfilling prophecy. But now it doesn't feel like that at all. I don't even think I'm running all that great, either. This feels like proper, profitable, aggressive, plus-EV sports betting. And I'm still way down on teasers and my PPH for the year! I might even be running bad! *(Just kidding, variance gods! I still kneel before you).*

Looking ahead, there really isn't much of anything that I'm jumping on early. The games tonight and Thursday have no teaser potential, and I have no legs hanging over from last week. The only line I may start a small teaser with is JAX -8. Nothing to pair it with yet though. My PPH has DEN at +1 in the 4:00 slate, so I'll be checking on these two lines all week. ATL could be a leg too, but at +2 it isn't worth jumping on this early. LV/NYJ will be a line to watch all week, seeing if I can get one or even both teams at +1.5 teased up to +7.5. PATS will probably be a leg too, but at -7/7.5, I'll wait to see how it moves.

We're eating good tonight! Thanks for reading and check back soon!

Week 7 Bets

 Bit of a light teaser day plus I have a little bit of time here to myself while I wait for some orders to get matched on NoVig, so I figured I would do a quick post outlining what I have going on today.

No teaser legs hanging over from the Monday or Thursday night games. The only legs I have going today are TEN +7.5, CIN +7.5 and BAL +8.5, all paired up with KC +8.5. With no available legs in the 9:30 game or afternoon slate, I'm only able to do 2 teamers which I don't love. ATL is a possibility, but it's a 'light' +2.5 with a total in the 50s. I'll see how the next couple hours go, but I'll probably pass on this game altogether.

TEN is a phenomenal leg. I have this set up so most of my CLE buyback has been on ML and -2.5. With the super low total and two shitty offenses, I'm really going for the middle here.

As good as TEN is, CIN is actually an even better leg right now. There's been a ton of movement on this line with Lamar Jackson being questionable all week, and I was able to snipe CIN at +1.5. They've since moved to -3 (+102). 

BAL +8.5 isn't great. I teased them a couple days ago when the line was +2.5, but it has since moved to +3 -113. I love getting both teams in the same game in teasers though. Obviously looking for any kind of a close game here.

Lastly on the teaser front, we have the night game, KC at SEA. KC +8.5 isn't a great leg with this line now at a flat 3, however I have quite a lot of other things going on with this game. My PPH has this game lined at 2.5 still, -110 both sides. So I'm able to max out SEA -2.5 -110, hedge it with KC +2.5 +115 and hopefully some KC +8.5 as the last leg in my teasers. Really good spot here.

I have a couple other things going on too, besides teasers. Draft Kings put up a couple really off market numbers early in the week and I pounced pretty hard on them. They had DET -3 -110 and TB +3 +100, both of which were arbable at the time I bet and even moreso now. So I have DET -3 -110 hedged with GB +3.5 -108 (thanks to a few odds boosts), and TB +3 +100 and a little +3.5 hedged with CAR -2.5, -3 +105 and ML. Looking to bink one of these games for the massive half/half-middle. 

So that's about it, so far at least. Little bit of a teaser breather week. I'm taking a lot of small risks to hopefully hit one or two of these middles. Looking for CIN/BAL to be decided by less than a TD and CLE winning by 7 or less. Then the big middles on the 3 in the TB and DET games. Then the late game tonight will be a big one, sort of depending on how the 1:00 teaser legs do.

With my 40ish units locked up this week already from the MNF game, I have the chance for a really big week. If CAR or DET win by exactly 3, it will be a banner week no matter what else happens. Check back later today or tomorrow to see how it all goes!

Week 6 Recap Plus A Bink-O-Rooski On MNF

As I said in my look ahead post on Saturday, this was a fantastic week for Wongs. Lots of Wongable stand alone games. Let's see how we did.

I covered the MNF and TNF games last post, so that brings us up to Sunday. First Wong of the day was HOU +8.5 in the 9:30 slot. I didn't get much down on this but I did add a couple legs right before kickoff with a small JAX ML hedge. HOU won outright which was fine. Not ideal but pretty much break even.

The 1:00 slate was quite dramatic, again. The big game of this slate was ATL/CHI. I jumped on ATL early, getting them at +3.5 and then teasing them from +1.5 to +7.5. It closed at a pick em so I crushed the market on this bet. I had a lot of my buy back at CHI -2.5 and ML, so I was really looking for the middle here. CHI ended up winning by eight. Half point away from at least my teaser cashing. A great bet but a bad result.

PIT/TB ended absolutely perfectly with PIT winning by 7. I had TB teased to +8.5 and PIT -2.5 and even some -6.5, so that was good.

Same with JETS at PATS with the PATS Winning by exactly 7. I cashed PATS -1.5 and my NYJ +7.5 middles. The PATS missed an XP this game, too, which went my way this time.

The big game of the day, LAC at KC, was somewhat anti-climatic. This was the only Wongable game in the afternoon slate, so just about every single teaser I had had this game in it. All I really needed was KC to win by 3 or more with a medium sized +7.5 and +3.5 middle to go with it. The only thing that couldn't happen was KC winning by 1 or 2. When they missed their XP to go up 9-3, I started panic live-hedging on LAC. KC ended up blowing them out so it was a good result, but I ate into some of my profits live-betting.

(Side note: this -2.5 hedged with opponent ML has become a definite leak of mine lately. The two near misses this year scarred me. I think I patched this leak going forward though, which we'll see later).

So a big chunk of my teasers all got through to the SNF game, DAL at GB. I managed to snipe DAL +7.5 on my PPH as the last or second leg of most of my teasers. With the high total plus DAL seemingly always losing in prime time games, I didn't go for much of a middle here at all. GB won outright which wasn't ideal but didn't cost me anything.

So the week on its own was pretty blah. I lost about 5 units total.

However, I still had a big chunk of teasers left with SF -1.5 on MNF as the last leg. I hedged with WASH ML (just a little bit), WASH +1.5 (which I'm able to do profitably now on NoVig), WASH +3.5, +6.5 and +7.5. And wouldn't you know it, it landed near perfect with SF winning by 6. (I'm starting to get the +6.5 as a hedge more often now than in years past. Looking at my push chart, I realized the 6 is more of an important point that I realized).

The fact that it was the last leg in all my teasers meant it was for quite a big amount. I had about 20 units locked up no matter what, but with my +7.5 and +6.5 middles hitting, it made it so I made over 40 units last night. A 3 point win would have been perfect but I certainly cannot complain. 

All in all, a great week. It's sort of like I grinded all week to give myself that position last night, and I finally half-binked one of these big MNF middles. 

Looking ahead, right now I see TEN as a perfect leg to jump on early. They're +1.5 at home against CLE with a total in the 30's. Teasers rarely get better than that. Right now I have them at +7.5 and KC +8.5 as the only two available legs. MIN is worth keeping an eye on if it gets to the 7, OR if the IND ML gets better.

That's about it for me today. We keep chugging right along here, having a really good start to the season.

Talk later, bye for now!

Week 6 Bets

 Quick post here today where I have some time. Lot of action coming up this week so I thought I would do a little preview of what I have going.

We're blessed by the schedule gods this week giving us many Wongable stand-alone games.

First was DEN on Thursday night. Another OT game that doesn't quite go my way. Den winning outright was fine but if they had lost by 3-7 it would have been perfect. I had SEA -2.5 as my main hedge.

But anyway, with my DEN +8.5 legs all live, I'm in decent shape so far.

The first leg of the day is HOU +8.5 playing in the new 9:30 slot. I don't have much on this leg at all, actually. It isn't my favorite sort of line to Wong with Pinny dealing +2.5 -100, -2.5 -113. You really want to be teasing 'heavy' points as I call them. A +2.5 -114. With the low total and it being a stand alone game, I do have one small teaser with it as a leg. I might add a little more but I don't know, something is telling me to stay away. 

Actually, I guess the main reason is that last week the 9:30 game didn't end until after the 1:00's started. That's too risky/hard to hedge and middle, so the only legs I could add would be afternoon games or later. And now that DAL has gone to +1, it really only leaves me with KC as an option. And as we'll see soon, I really do not need any more KC action.

(OK that was a little verbose. They won't all be like that, I swear.)

Onto the 1:00 slate, my best leg here is actually ATL +7.5. I sniped them when they were at +1.5. They went to a PK but now seem to be going back to +1. Either way, I'm able to middle/hedge on CHI now at incredible prices. Don't love the high total but I went with a lot of CHI -2.5 as my hedge. I also managed to snipe ATL +3.5 -120 for the max on my slow moving PPH which is an incredible price. I bought back some CHI -3.5 as an arb, but mostly CHI -2.5 and some ML. Looking for the middle here, big time.

Next we have the PATS. This isn't really a true Wong as they're closer to a 7 point favorite than 7.5, but I like doing this and betting opponent ML as my main hedge. Really giving myself an effective PATS ML bet at something like -200 odds. I got a couple good numbers on JETS +7.5 and some +3.5 so I'd love a nice middle here. Only thing that can't happen here is PATS winning by exactly one. It's not for a huge amount though so I'm ok with the risk. I can hedge out of it live if I have to, too.

Up next we have TB. Low total, home dog, pretty good spot. I don't have a whole lot here actually but I might add to it tomorrow. I usually wait longer on the 2.5's as opposed to 1.5's. If it drifts into the 3, I'm pretty fucked.

The 4:00 slate only gives one real option and that is KC teased down to -2.5 and -1.5. With it being the only afternoon leg, this is the game I have an uncomfortable amount on, and will probably have an even bigger amount come 4:00. This is going to be a big one. If I can bink this middle, it'll be a massive week. And again, if KC wins by 1 or 2, I will be fucked. Not too too bad though, honestly. I'm getting lots of LAC +7.5, +3.5 and +2.5, but I can't NOT take any money line. Low total and KC is the king of winning but not covering, so I like this spot. This will be THE game of tomorrow.

But the fun doesn't stop there! We have ANOTHER stand alone leg that I was able to pounce on early, which is DAL +7.5 in the SNF game. They've been +1 all week but went to +1.5 for like an hour on my PPH and I clobbered them on it. They're the last and second to last leg in most of my teasers, so this will (hopefully) be a big game too.

And that isn't even it! The MNF game is a perfect wong too! Can you believe it? The Thursday night game, the 9:30 Sunday game, a few in the 1:00 slate, one in the 4:00 slate, the SNF and MNF games all being Wongable? It's like I personally made the schedule this week, lol.

The MNF game is WASH at SF, SF-7.5. Perfect last leg for teasers. Little bit of a pain with it being cross weeks and having the PPH but that's too minute to explain. True PPH guys will probably know what I mean here.

But anyway, that's about what I have going this week. All my hedges and middles now go in at either a legal book with an odds boost of some kind, or on NoVig, usually with me making. So I should technically have a small edge on even most of my 'hard side' hedges and middles. Pretty, pretty, pretty good spot all around I would say. Since starting on NoVig, my ROI has gone up nearly a full percent, and my volume has gone WAY up too. I really am expecting to make a good profit this season. But we shall see! 

Talk soon, maybe tomorrow. Bye!

Bitcoin Probably Will Become The Internet And That Might Not Be Great

There have been many charts that compare the growth of Bitcoin with the growth of other world changing technologies or inventions, namely the internet. It all depends on what you count and how you count it, but the growth of Bitcoin has roughly matched the growth of the internet in its inception. Here is one chart from 3 years ago:

Here's another similar chart:

You can find charts like these all over the place. You can quibble over the exact numbers, but generally speaking, Bitcoin is following the internet's path when it comes to mainstream adoption. And while that is objectively good for Bitcoin users, block-chain technology, and anyone with price exposure to Bitcoin, it might not be as great of an outcome as we think.

By now, you've probably heard about the 'cold wallet disasters' going on in the BTC space. First it was the wallet 'ColdCard'. Cold Card came onto the scene in response to the Trezor hacks a few years ago. Cold Card was sold as the ultimate, un-hackable, open source cold storage wallet. It was marketed for hardcore Bitcoin guys and a super secure but kind of hard to use cold wallet. And guess what happened? They were fucking compromised. Apparently, they didn't randomize their private keys enough, so a bunch of people who had Cold Card wallets got absolutely fucked through no fault of their own.

And NOW, there's been another self custody breach. Ledger wallets sold through a trusted re-seller somewhere in Asia got sent out with spyware in them. What apparently happened was that some shady Chinese company bought a Ledger wallet reseller named CryptoBills, but did it secretly and made the reseller sign an NDA. So this certified-by-Ledger reseller quietly gets sold, and now this new company tampered with the actual wallets themselves and put spyware in them. Anyone who used these wallets all got hit with a coordinated attack last week and are now shit out of luck. (By the way, if you are going to buy a cold wallet, only buy it directly from the company. I thought that was pretty common knowledge. I didn't even know about these 'trusted re-sellers' but if you can't buy from the company directly, then just don't buy one).

And let me tell you something. This is a fucking disaster. Self-custody was always, to me anyway, the weakest link in mainstream Bitcoin adoption. It's difficult, scary, and there's pretty much no recourse whatsoever. I'm a hardcore bitcoin guy and even I really don't like interacting with my wallet. It's foolproof on paper. But click the wrong thing, enter the wrong address, take the wrong picture, lose your private pass-phrase, and you are FUCKED. And now you have to physically open your device and check for spyware? Some people online are weighing their devices down to the gram to see if anything is in them that shouldn't be. Does that seem like a suitable solution longterm? 

And the answer to this always was 'with great freedom comes great responsibility'. It's on you to learn and not get hacked. And sure, that's mostly fine for me and you, guy reading a blog about bitcoin, but think about the average person. Can you picture your parents using a cold storage wallet?? Have you ever tried explaining self-custody to a regular person?

As we know, leaving it on exchanges isn't the answer either. They are not guaranteed like stocks at a brokerage or even cash in a bank. And obviously this isn't just theoretical either. OG's remember the infamous Mt. Gox exchange debacle, plus FTX and BlockFi blowing up in recent past, plus other smaller exchanges that have blown up or gone under or gotten hacked.

So what's the answer? Where can you realistically keep your bitcoin? I can't believe I'm about to say this, but more and more it's looking like ETF's are the answer. I'm even considering it and I never would have thought in a million years that that's something I would seriously consider. It feels like that is where Bitcoin acceptance is headed though.

And thinking about that, it really does bum me out. Sure, Bitcoin is going to keep growing. Its price will appreciate and everyone holding it will make money. But I don't think it's going to do what we really wanted it to, which is meaningfully replace the US dollar. Not in our lifetimes, at least. It's a perfect store of value and will always have monetary value because of that, but the dollar ain't going anywhere. 

Which brings me back to my internet point. I'm 40 years old now, so as a member of the last generation ever to know a world pre-internet, I am the perfect age to have seen the rise and adoption of it. 

When the internet first came out, it was a completely different animal than what it is today. It was ours. It really was just a free exchange of information. The idea of an online ad was absurd. It was MySpace pages, livejournals, message boards and pictures of your friends passed out from the party the night before with drawings of dicks on their faces. There's a great verse in the Bo Burnham song "Welcome To The Internet" that encapsulates it: 

"You know kids, it wasn't always like this

Not very long ago, just before your time

Right before the towers fell, circa '99

This was catalogues, travel blogs, a chat-room or two

We set our sights, and spent our nights

Waiting

For you"

The internet was home grown. It was fun. No ones fucking parents or teachers were on it. It was open source, free wheeling, fun. No ads, no 'search engine optimization', no one competing for your eyeballs. There weren't teams of autistic slobs making millions of dollars fighting each other to find the best way to addict teenagers to their products. Then Zuckerberg introduced the 'Like' to Facebook in 2013 and everything changed. The Patagonia vest guys got involved and now the internet is unrecognizable from the early days. This slot-machine-zombie, doomscroll, 24/7 dopamine hit in your pocket, 13 year old girls hanging themselves, nightmare fuel it has become. (Seriously, look into that 2013 stat. The 'Like' button came onto Facebook and spread everywhere else soon after. And that really was the turning point. That gave internet posts some sort of value system and drew all the wrong people into it. 2013 is where you see sharp increases in teen suicide and overall bad mental health outcomes for kids, too.)

So my point in all this is to say that Bitcoin IS following the internets path, and that's not really a great thing. Its price will go up and we'll all be happy we own it, but it'll probably just get folded into everything else, just like the internet. You'll 'own' shares of an ETF that give you a piece of paper saying that someone else bought Bitcoin for you, and it'll be insured like stocks are. And, again, the number will go up and we'll be happy to sell it to someone else someday. But this big Bitcoin revolution? The end of fiat and all its evils? I don't know man. I'm down on that thesis right now. If we can't really figure out self-custody, we're probably fucked there.

That's it for me today. BIG teaser week brewing. I'll have my Week 6 recap up next week but I might do a look ahead post before that. There are a ton of interesting spots this week with a lot of stand alone teaser possibilities. Thanks for reading, check back soon!

BTC price: $81.5k

BTC marketcap: $1.63T

BTC dominance: 59.8% (including stables)

ETH dominance: 10.8%

Total crypto marketcap: $2.74T

Total cryptos on coin market cap: 63.9M

NFL Week 5 Recap: Biggest Week Of The Year So Far And The Drama Continues

Week 5 is in the books. Can you believe we're more than 5 weeks in already? Feels like the season just started. I had another strange and swingy day. Nothing compared to that TB lightning delay disaster a couple weeks ago, but plenty of drama nonetheless. Let's break it down plus a look ahead and some other things.

The week started with MNF, ATL at NO. I had a few teasers sneak through last week with their last legs being ATL +7.5. I went for the NO -2.5 middle mostly but left more risk on ATL. ATL blew them out so it was fine. I made a few more units than I lost in the week prior, so a decent start.

Up next was the Thursday night game. Now, looking at the board going into that Thursday game, the teaser situation was a little weird. As you know by now, my strategy really needs stand alone games that can be Wonged. The TNF game was a perfect candidate with DAL at -8, -8.5, on its way to 9 for most of the week. Playing at home against TB without Baker Mayfield. There were no possible teasers in the Sunday afternoon slate, so I had DAL -2.5 as the first leg in nearly every single teaser I had for the week. I ended up getting really good numbers on TB ML and +8.5 and +7.5 combining a ton of free bets and odds boosts, so I made it so I basically broke even on anything other than the middle hitting. As we know DAL somehow lost that game. So most of my teasers died but I didn't lose anything.

Now, on to the whacky-ness. Sunday started off with PHI/JAX in London as a stand alone 9:30 AM game. Jax opened at -7 and closed at -8, so they were a perfect teaser leg. A stand alone game, a 7.5/8 point favorite, AND a low total. With DAL losing, I nowre-fired on JAX as the first leg in every other teaser I put in. (With no 4:00 legs available but lots of 1:00 legs, I had to settle for doing a bunch of 2 teamers at -110 instead of 3 teamers at +170. Two teamers at -110 is slightly worse). So I have JAX -1.5 paired with the following: GB +7.5, NO +8.5, CLE +8.5, HOU -1.5, IND +8.5, so 5 different teasers. I hedged out of the JAX -1.5 position with a mix of PHI ML, PHI +7.5 and PHI +3.5. Did you watch that game?? Another absolutely retarded ending with both teams seemingly trying to lose. JAX scored a TD way late in the game to go up by 2 but they miss the fucking extra point (because their long snapper was ejected for fighting on the very first play of the game which also negated a return TD). So JAX is up by 2 with a couple minutes left. The 1:00 games are like 10 minutes away from starting so I fly back into my battle station and I start hedging/middling the 1:00 legs. I get a couple legs done and then see that PHI is now about to kick a game winning field goal. I run downstairs just in time to see it go through the uprights. FUCK. Now my teasers are dead and I just put in a bunch of hedges and middles against bets that don't exist. I run back upstairs to get out of these new positions, and just as I'm about to start re-firing, I hear commotion again! For some ungoldly reason, PHI kicked off to JAX and let them return it to their 30 something with exactly 1 second left. JAX then kicks the 57 yard walk off FG to win by a perfect two points. My teasers stay alive and all of my PHI bets (except for ML) won as well. A great but hectic start to the day.

So now my teasers are live and I need to hedge/middle the rest of them fast. I manage to get them all covered, mostly live, but not really optimally. I don't remember this last year: having to wait to see if I need to hedge until the very last second. Are games getting longer or something? Or are they all seemingly closer? I don't know.

Either way, the 1:00 slate ended up going really well, all things considered. GB blew CHI out which was fine. NO didn't cover 8.5 but I was able to hit MIN -7.5 for big plus odds live so I made a small profit there. CLE covered +8.5 but lost by 4 which was perfect. That was one of my big 'middle' plays of the day with two shitty offensives and a low total. My main hedges were NYJ -2.5 and ML, but a couple of them were at -4.5 which was perfect with the Jets winning by 5. HOU destroyed TEN and IND got blown out. I caught a book sleeping on PIT -2 earlier in the week when the market was at -2.5 -120, so I had more than usual on PIT on that leg though. All in all, a good result overall for the 1:00 slate.

The only real action I had in the 4:00 slate was a big middle I had on the NYG/WASH game. Early in the week I jumped on WASH -3 -115 and WASH ML -170, both at DK and both of which were near arbs to the market. Later, I jumped on NYG +4.5 -120 on Fanduel which was also an arb to the market. I also had WASH +3.5 as the second leg of a small teaser from the prior week. So if WASH won this game by exactly 3, it would have been perfect. This was another shit show end of the game where it seemed like neither team really wanted to win. I'm sure you saw the highlights. If not, you should check it out. Some of the worst game management I have ever seen in my life. The game ended up, somehow, in a tie. Which wasn't the worst outcome in the world for me. There were some massive, glaring live arbs up at the end of this game, too, and for a decent amount of time. Live arbing is always risky but I hit them a few times. I got -528 arbed with +650 at the same exact time, and -118 with +134. Like I've said many times before, live betting is still very much up for grabs if you know where/how to look and have some balls.

SF/SEA landed absolutely perfect with SF winning by 3. I had SEA +3.5 as the last leg of a small teaser, SF ML and SF +3 as the second leg of a boosted parlay. Every single bet I had on this game won. None of them were big, it was a 6 unit win total, but of course I'll take it.

Nothing of note on the SNF game, really. I had ATL -2.5 -130 from early in the week that I half-hedged with BAL +3.5. I also had BAL +3 as the last leg of that boosted parlay, so I made a few units no matter who won with the big middle on ATL winning by 3. And it went into OT! Close, but BAL ended up winning outright.

All in all, a cool 34 units of profit. My biggest week of the year so far. I'm crushing it so far this NFL season, and teasers have mostly gotten killed. My only real worry right now is losing one of my legal accounts. To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. I have a few years worth of sample now at Draft Kings and I'm solidly in the green there. Hopefully I stay under their radar (I'll order some clothes from them this week too) but even if I do lose them, I'll be fine.

For tonight, I have LAR -2.5 -115 that I got on Bet MGM last week. I'm also able to get BUF +3.5 -110 right now which is slightly arb-able. I have to say, I'm doing a really good job of setting up these big profitable middles and arbs, completely separate from teasers. This really has been a wildly encouraging start to the season so far and I still feel like I'm due to hit a big, stand alone game middle. 

Looking ahead, nothing I'm quite jumping on yet but lots of lines to keep an eye on. PATS will almost certainly be some kind of a teaser leg against NYJ. I'll start trying to get a really good NYJ ML numbers matched on NoVig. CAR, NYG and DAL are all 1 point dogs on my PPH which you know I'll be looking at all week, looking for something to go to +1.5. My PPH also has KC at -9 +100 instead of -8.5 -110 like most everyone else. Is he finally learning?? I really hope not (and I also really doubt it. This guy is a few crayons short of a full box). The MNF game has SF at -7.5 against WASH which will be a perfect stand alone last leg.

That is it for me today. The NFL/teaser train keeps on chuggin.

Thanks for reading, check back soon!

NFL Week 4 Recap Plus Bitcoin Update

NFL Week 4 is in the books. Lots of action but thankfully somewhat of a breather from the near heart attacks of the past 3 weeks.

The first game of the week, MNF, started us off with PHI at CHI. The line was PHI -3 and -3.5 mostly. I bought through the 3 on my PPH (which lets me do that for too cheap as I've mentioned on here before) and also did a small screwball teaser where I pulled PHI from a heavy -3 to +3.5. I hedged and middled as usual but CHI blew them out. I hate starting the week out with a loss but no big deal.

The Thursday night game went much better. I did another very small screwball teaser and pulled PIT from a heavy -2.5 to +3.5. I middled that with CLE ML, -2.5, and some -3. The game ended perfectly with CLE winning by exactly 3. I didn't get much down on this at all though but of course I'll take it.

On to Sunday. My only teaser legs for the 1:00 slate were BUF -1.5 and NYG +7.5. There were a couple of legs that were close to being teasers but they were the -2.5 -117, +2.5 +105 kind of lines. Right in between 2.5 and 3. I didn't feel the need to force anything so I just rode with BUF and NYG. And both games were so close to landing perfect. With BUF, I mostly hedged with PATS ML but I had a little bit of +7 and +7.5. I basically got myself BUF ML at like -200 with a small middle chance, so all I really needed was BUF to win outright, which we know didn't happen as the PATS won a nail biter by 3.

The NYG game was much more of a bummer. Right when that line opened last week, I jumped on ARZ ML at -106 which was pretty off market at the time. I let that sit and then when the line went all the way to ARZ -2, I jumped on a bunch of NYG +7.5 teasers. With such a low total, I went for the big middle and hedged with everything from ARZ ML to ARZ -7.5. If ARZ won this game by 7 or less, it would have been massive. At the very, very end of the game, ARZ was down by 6 with 1st and goal on fucking GOAL LINE, and somehow turned that into negative 6 points (pick 6 to end it). I live bet NYG ML during the last ARZ drive so I managed to squeak out a little profit from it, but so close to the big middle of the day hitting.

The only afternoon leg that was semi wong-able was SEA -7 to  -1.5. I hedged with mostly LAC ML and +3.5, but I did manage to get a little bit of +7 and +7.5. SEA won by exactly 7 so a decent result. The only teaser of the day to have any of my middles hit.

The only other real action I had was PHI +3.5 +105 which, again, Draft Kings left up as an arb to the market for most of the day. They were winning by 10 late in the game but somehow managed to lose by 4. I also had a huge middle on SF winning by exactly 3, which looked in play with a 3-3 score at halftime which ultimately didn't go my way.

A couple other small arbs but nothing note worthy, really. I lost about 5 units on the week but I had a couple big teasers sneak through with ATL +7.5 as the last leg tonight. The line movement has been great for me on this game as ATL has taken a bunch of money and the game is now about a pick em. So I'm able to hedge/middle with everything from NO -1.5 at plus odds, all the way to NO -8.5. So if ATL just covers +7.5, I'll make a few more units than I lost last week. If NO blows them out, I'll be just about break even with last week. But...if I can finally hit one of these big middles this year...if NO can win by 7 or less, I'll come out way ahead. So I'm essentially free rolling on the middle tonight.

A ho-hum kind of week. Got torched on the PPH again so my leash is long as hell there now. 

Looking ahead, I don't see anything I feel like I need to jump on right now. I added some ATL +7.5 teasers, paired with IND and CLE. I don't love those legs right now though, that was just to get more down on ATL. We'll see how things develop. So far we're 4 weeks into NFL season and I'm up about 25 units. Pretty good pace but I feel like it could be better. We'll see!

Switching gears, I want to talk about Bitcoin a little bit.

A few months ago I mentioned that I had borrowed some money to invest in Bitcoin with; something that I had never done before. I bought a big chunk when BTC dipped its toes into the $50k range, basically as much as I possibly could. Then I borrowed that money, put on a big weekly DCA buy, and made a few massive limit buy orders all between $50 and $60k. I, like everyone else on the planet it seems, thought that there would for sure be one more leg down for Bitcoin. We all apparently watch Ben Cowen now and thought Bitcoin HAD to hit the 'realized price' at about $55k, and it just didn't. Mid August Bitcoin shot up from $65k to $77k and is now flirting with $90k. It seems like the bear market bottom is, indeed, in. 

So I missed it somewhat, got a little too cute which is a bit of a recurring theme for me over the years. I did manage to get in about half the amount I borrowed/planned on investing and the big weekly buy I put on may end up being one of my best investment moves of my life in something like 10-15 years down the line. So, again, it kind of half worked. I doubled my Bitcoin stack this 'bear market', but it never quite feels like enough, does it? I've been sort of wanting BTC to crash one more leg down for like 4 months now, but at this point I'm fine either way. With a couple weeks worth of closes above the 50 week moving average, which is about $80-$83k right now, it feels like we go up from here.

Which brings me to my overall point with Bitcoin and crypto in general, which is that I don't really care to talk about it anymore. Honestly, I just don't give a shit if people I talk to buy it or not. I always think back to the Saylor quote 'everyone will buy Bitcoin at the price they deserve.' 

One thing that I will say though is that it is funny to think that this last little drop in price was even called a 'bear market.' It is stunning to think how far BTC has come in a short amount of time. In every other bear market, you would have loads of people saying BTC was going to zero and it was all over for it. You don't hear that anymore. Bitcoin really is here to stay. That's an easy thing to take for granted now but it wasn't so easy back in 2019, and harder still even before that. (I didn't buy BTC until the the covid crash, but I followed it as far back as 2015. And every single bear market/75% drawdown, you would have every Tom Dick and Harry come out of the wood work to dance on its grave and declare that, this time, it really was dead. I didn't see a word of that this cycle. All you hear now is talk about when the price will recover, not if).

The only other thing I really wanted to mention about crypto is that I am all but done with alt-coins. I have my ETH, my Chainlink sidepiece, and tiny amounts of Litecoin and Solana, but I barely bought any more of those during this downturn, and I plan on selling a good chunk of my ETH and SOL when/if the price rebounds. (I never actually wanted ANY Solana. I had to accept it once for settling up purposes at it's all time high, and now I'm stuck with it, waiting for the price to rebound so I can sell it. Been waiting years now though). I just don't believe in the use cases for any alt coin anymore. They don't beat The King longterm and all you fake smart people who called Bitcoin a dead "boomer coin" during the 2020 alt-coin/NFT craze were DEAD fucking wrong. 

That's all for me today. I have a longer form post working its way out of me so check back soon. Bye for now!