Week 3 Recap: The Drama Continues

 I had my best week of the year so far last week but it was, again, chock full of drama with two near heart attacks. It's been feeling like I'm walking a tight rope this year with sharks and spikes on one side of the fall and piles of cash on the other. Let's dive in and try to make sense of another whacky week of over-betting wong teasers and middling/arbing each leg, plus more.

It was quite the busy week for teasers. The MNF game got me started with LAR blowing out the NYG. A good but not great result.

The next leg up was GB which was -7, almost -7.5, all week until game day when a TON of ATL money came in, pushing the line all the way down to -4.5. I managed to hedge my way completely out of my GB position and made it so I had more ATL exposure. ATL won outright so, again, a decent but not great result.

The madness really started on Sunday. These are the 1:00 legs I had, in rough order of exposure: BUF -1.5, SEA -1.5/-2.5, IND +7.5, TEN +7.5, CLE +8.5.

BUF won by eight. A lot of my LAC hedges went in at LAC +7.5 so that was a bit of a bummer.

SEA gave me my first near heart attack of the day, however. This was another terrific teaser spot: SEA was getting bet all week, going from -7 -100 all the way to -9 at kick off. I nibbled on them all week, getting them from -1.5 ( really -1 but my book is any teaser push is a loss, so that is effectively -1.5) to -2.5. With the total being so small, I hedged with a lot of WASH +3.5 and +8.5, but a good amount of money-line as well. So the only thing that really couldn't happen in this game was SEA winning by exactly one...which is why it was so brutal to see that game be WASH 33, SEA 31 with SEA about to get the ball late in the 4th quarter. All they had to do was kick a FG to win by exactly one. I live bet some SEA ML just in case, but WASH ended up winning outright. A bad result that was close to being a lot worse. This was another game that took forever and was very much in balance at the end, so I had to wait until the bitter end to know if a lot of my afternoon legs were live or not.

IND and CLE won outright which was decent. TEN +7.5 was the only leg of the 1:00 slate that won and had some of my middles hit as well.

The only other action I had in the 1:00 games was a JAX -2.5 scalp that won easily, and a big PIT +3.5 scalp that won as well. Draft kings, for the second week in a row, put up an arb to the market on PIT +3.5 and ML for most of the week. I got PIT +3.5 -105 at DK and scalped with CIN -3.5 +115ish and a little bit of CIN -3 -110. CIN winning by 3 would have been perfect, and it looked like the game was going to end that way, but PIT winning outright was fine too. 

On to the 4:00 slate where we again had a near heart attack. With the 1:00 legs doing so well, I had a lot of teasers alive going into the afternoon games. My two big 4:00 legs were SF -2.5 and TB +7.5. The SF game was very similar to the SEA game, an 8.5 favorite and a low total. So I had SF -2.5 for a massive amount, and hedged with everything from ARZ ML to ARZ +8.5. Again, the only thing that really couldn't happen in this game was SF winning by exactly 1 or 2. I don't know if you were following along with that game, but it was insanity at the end. It all started with SF missing an extra point to go up by exactly 9 late in the game. As soon as I saw that my heart dropped and I started firing ARZ +2.5 live. Sure enough, ARZ fucking marches down and scores to go down by exactly two way late in the game. I'm thinking 'well I'm fucked, it's finally going to happen.' To make matters worse, I could have gotten SF at -1.5 instead of -2.5 if I had just waited. SF opened at -8.5 but closed at -7.5.

So I'm trying to give my daughter a bath, pretend that none of this is happening as I'm watching the play by play on my phone, trying to jam in ARZ +2.5. SF has the ball and I'm thinking they're just going to try to run the clock down. Then out of nowhere they score a TD! A wave of relief!

But wait! There's a lot of time left and ARZ is now marching! Again! Dear god. Thankfully, they get bogged down and end up kicking a FG! So SF wins by 6, a near perfect ending. The teaser won and all my ARZ +7.5 and +8.5 hedges won. I dusted off a good amount live betting, again, but so far so good.

TB ended up perfect, losing by 7. I only had one small MIN -1.5 middle on this game, however, as I just ran out of time hedging the big SF play.

Anyway, with both 4:00 legs winning, this meant I had a massive position on DEN +7.5 and +8.5. They were a perfect 3rd leg to put in on nearly every teaser I had all week, so my position really was big. I hedged with a mixture of LAR ML, -1.5, -2.5, -3.5, -6.5, -7.5, -8.5, and even some -9.5. If LA won last night by anywhere between 3 and 8, it would have been party time USA for me. And it was SO agonizingly close! I was able to watch the entire second half of that game last night, and boy did LA get fucked. LA was winning by exactly 3 with less than 2 minutes left with DEN having the ball. DEN throws a literal game ending interception that somehow got called pass interference. DEN went on to win outright. Brutal. However, right before that drive started I hammered DEN ML live. Those live bets won me back most of what I lost on my SEA and ARZ panic plays. DEN winning outright was fine; I always leave more risk on the last leg of a teaser. 

After all the dust settled, I had a fairly amazing week. 25 units, my best week of 2026 so far. Again, another week where I'm not entirely sure if I got lucky or unlucky. Feels like a bit of both but more lucky than not. I know I'm due for one of these dreadful 1 or 2 point teaser leg wins. I still will continue to hedge the -1.5 and -2.5's with opponent money-line, but I definitely need to pare it down a bit and get more of +2.5. The stress alone isn't worth it!

So far, I'm up about 30 units on NFL. And while it definitely could have been worse, it could have been better too. I feel like I'm stepping around a minefield but some of the mines are buddles of cash, and I'm all around everything but mostly missing. I might be running good but part of me feels like I'm running bad. Maybe I'm just running normal and this is what it feels like. Either way, it's been a bizarre, swingy, dramatic but profitable start to the 2026 NFL season. I really can't stress enough how great it is to have an exchange this year, especially for the way I bet now. Getting my middles/hedges in at exactly breakeven or even slightly better numbers has been a godsend. Sometimes when I get a -7.5 or -3.5 hedge filled, I check Pinnacle and can't believe how much better I'm getting than what I used to. I kind of can't believe I made as much money as I did on these last year - not that I even made all that much. But it just feels like this really could be a big year.

Looking ahead, tonight I'm able to get PHI -2.5 at -145 for a big amount which is arbable with the market. I'm arbing it with mostly CHI +2.5 at +150ish, but also some CHI +3.5 at good odds with a couple odds boosts, plus CHI ML and a tiny bit of CHI -2.5. So I'll basically have PHI -2.5 at about -115 odds, plus a small -2.5, +3.5 middle. And the tiny -2.5, ML/-2.5 polish middle. If PHI wins by exactly 3 I clean up, and anything other than PHI winning by exactly 1 or 2, I make money.

There isn't a single teaser leg I'm jumping on early. A couple +2.5s that I'll probably be on later, but I'll wait to see how the week develops. I'll be looking at ARZ/NYG for one of those teams to get to +1.5, and I'll be watching the PATS/BUF line as well. If I can get PATS ML at +285 or better, I'll start firing some BUF -1.5 teasers so I can shave another couple days off my life next week.

Anywho, that'll about do it for me today. So far this season has been a lot more work, a lot more money flying all over the place, but nicely profitable. I'm making some tweaks in my set up to account for orders getting matched as the day goes on which has been good. Check back soon, thanks for reading!

Week 2 Recap: The Craziest Day Of Betting In My Life

I have been bangin away at this +EV betting thing for about 15 years now. Nearly 2 full decades. And I shit you not, I had one of the most perplexing, bizarre, swingy, heart attack inducing days of my betting life this past Sunday. Still, two full days later, I'm not entirely sure what even happened, exactly. Let me try to explain.

If you're a long time regular reader here you might know this, but my main NFL betting strategy for the past 3 or so years has been mainly centered around teasers (of the Wong variety, mostly). I'm able to get 2 teamers at -110 and 3 teamers at +170, both of which are profitable and nearly impossible to find these days. (Draft Kings charges -135 for 2 teamers. -135! Way back in the day I got these at +105!) In order to wring out as much value as possible from these teasers, I way over-bet them and hedge/middle each leg. An important wrinkle here is that each leg in each teaser has to be playing at a different time slot (something that took me way too long to figure out). I need each leg to be decided before the next one starts (if you're a smarty pants you might be a step ahead of me here). 

My big teaser teams in the 1:00 slate Sunday were (in order of exposure) TB -2.5, BAL -2.5, PHI -1.5, and ATL +7.5. Now, right off the bat you can see...not great. Only one of those bets (PHI) won. However, it wasn't as bad as it looks because PHI won but didn't cover which means a lot of my TEN hedges won.

I went pretty bonkers on TB -2.5 and to a slightly lesser extent BAL -2.5. They were both perfect teaser candidates. -8.5 with Pinnacle dealing heavy -9s on both, essentially saying 'we do not want to take teasers on either of these games'. A big -8.5 to -2.5 teaser is typically one of my favorite legs. You can get the opponent money line at something like +380 if you try really hard, so that's a -255/+380 scalp basically. You can also middle with opponent +3.5 for big odds, on top of +7.5 usually for plus odds too. The only real risk is the teaser leg winning by 1 or 2, but you can cover that with getting +2.5 as a pure scalp, or +3.5 or better as a middle.

Anyway, I did all of the above for my CLE hedges/middles. My PPH has a massive max bet and credit limit, and I've really been trying to up my volume lately in everything. The more volume the better. So I bet pretty much as much as I could on TB -2.5 and hedged/middled out of most of it. I got everything from CLE ML at +380ish, +2.5, +3.5, +6.5, +7.5, +8.5. If this game ended with TB winning by 8 or less, it would have been outstanding for me. TB winning by exactly 3? Massive. 

So imagine how it felt to be following along with this game with 2 minutes left. TB is down by 4 but driving with the ball on the CLE 30-something. They have to score a TD and it would put them up by exactly 3. And the game gets delayed for lightning! For over a fucking hour!! More importantly, not only is it quite the sweat, but I don't know if the next legs in my teasers are live or not!! And the next games are starting!! Remember, I way over-bet these teasers. I need to hedge/middle out of each leg, which means I need to know if each teaser is live or not before the next leg starts! 

So I'm frantically refreshing X trying to get an update, meanwhile I have no idea if I have action on my JAX +8.5 and LAC -1.5 teaser legs, which, again, I over-bet. So I'm watching along in my battle station, sort of half hedging on LV and DEN. Luckily for me, both games were close into halftime.

And then around the 3rd Quarter of the 4:00 games, (I think? it was all a blur) TB/CLE starts up again out of nowhere. And of course TB just cannot get in the endzone. I did have the wherewithal to fire on CLE ML +112 during the delay as a sort of insurance but in hindsight, I should have bet quite a lot more.

Now that TB lost, I realize my teasers are mostly all dead and now I'm exposed on LV and DEN. I bet a little bit on the other side and luckily both games ended up going in my (now) favor, so that worked out I suppose. But holy shit! What a sweat! I'm still not sure if I got lucky or unlucky, to be perfectly honest. A bit of both I suppose. 

To add to the nuttiness of it all, the BAL/NO game almost gave me a heart attack, too. Like I mentioned earlier, I teased BAL down to -2.5 and hedged with a good amount of NO moneyline. So the only thing that could not happen in this game is BAL winning by 1 or 2. In the middle of all of this other stuff, NO scores a TD to go down by exactly 2 to BAL late in the game. They go for 2 and fucking MISS IT (or so it showed on the play by play). Now I'm really sweating. I fire a small NO +2.5/BAL ML parlay as an 'in case of emergency insurance play', and sure enough, there was a flag on the play and NO goes for again and this time gets in, tying the game up. Just insanity all around. This is why I used to not even watch the games at all. (Now that I have access to NoVig, I am able to hedge with opponent +2.5 profitably instead of just betting them on the moneyline. I still do bet the ML but not as much for this exact reason).

I had a nice little NYJ +3.5, GB ML middle which binked. Draft Kings put up an arb to the market all week on the Jets +3.5 and I did a cute little scalp and ML middle.

The SNF game landed perfect with KC winning by 3. Normally that would have been a windfall for me, but I was so shell shocked from earlier in the day that I didn't get much down on it at all.

Honestly, going to bed Sunday night I had no idea how the day went. I had no idea if I got crushed or not, and if so, how bad it was. Plus I had no one I could remotely tell all this to, and I had to kind of pretend none of it was happening at all. My wife is supportive of this and does her best to give me a lot of 'alone computer time' on Sundays, but she still (somehow) doesn't even know what a parlay is, never mind a teaser. The specifics of betting are not something we talk about and any time I find myself trying to explain something to her, I end up feeling like that Charlie from Always Sunny in Philadelphia meme.

'OK so a teaser is a parlay where you get to move the spread 6 points in your favor. But all the legs have to win. I over-bet the teasers and then hedge/middle out of each leg. I need each leg to be over before the next one starts and guess WHAT?! The TB game is in lightning delay! Yes, lightning. No, it almost never happens. Now I don't know if the teasers are live or not and the afternoon games are STARTING!'

*the blankest stare you have ever seen in your life* 'I wish I understood this stuff better. Dinner is almost ready, are you going to be done soon?'

The whole day felt surreal, honestly. A little bit like watching that god awful movie 'Uncut Gems' but like it was only happening in my head.

Doing my numbers this morning felt like my heart was in my chest. And guess what? I made about 6 units for the week. So not bad at all, I guess, but it probably took like 3 days off of my life.

Really weird start to the NFL season. My volume is way up and using an exchange is quite different, plus I do have a good amount of accounts now. I am ramping things back up, sort of without me realizing almost? So far, teasers have gotten demolished yet I'm still up for the season which is a really good sign. Getting my hedges/middles in at NoVig has been a massively good change. That means I've gotten crushed on my PPH too, which is kind of a good thing to happen this early. Now I know I'll almost certainly have this account all year, at least.

Looking ahead, I did have a couple teasers sneak through with LAR -1.5 as the last leg which won last night. I added some more, coupled with GB -1.5 and my favorite look ahead teaser leg of the upcoming week: SF -2.5. TB and DEN look good too but we'll see how things develop.

That's it for today, check back soon as I am big time in sports betting mode right now.

NFL Week 1 Betting Recap: Bit Of A Nightmare

 Week 1 is officially in the books and I had the kind of week that literally gives me nightmares. Now, I only lost 1 unit on the week, so for all intents and purposes it was a blip. A nothing burger of a week. What could possibly be nightmarish about that? Let me explain.

I have 6 different, active sports betting accounts right now. A mix of my PPH, a few legal books, NoVig (an exchange) and a 'Pinnacle clone' we'll call it. Money is constantly moving in and out of each book/account, so it's hard to tell how I'm doing in any given week. I usually have a general feel of how things are going but I never really know until Monday (today) when I do my accounting for the prior week.

Now, starting this week off we had the SEA/PATS game. I talked about it on here but I was able to get SEA -2.5 -115 which was an absolute steal, plus some SEA +3.5 in a teaser. I hedged with a lot of PATS +2.5 but also a little bit of +3 and +3.5. That game landed absolutely perfectly with SEA winning by 3. Couldn't have asked for a better start.

The rest of the week was fine, nothing earth shattering. I had JAX-2.5 as the next leg in all of my teasers and hedged that mostly with CLE +8.5, +3.5, and some ML. Most of those bets were odds boost and free bets so I didn't have much CLE exposure at all. It would have been perfect if the JAX-2.5, CLE +8.5 middle hit but I didn't need it to. Or so I thought, I guess? JAX blows them out and we move on.

I then had GB +7.5 as the next leg in just about every teaser, which of course got blown out. However, I hedged out of it enough to show a profit no matter what with MIN -7.5, -8.5, and a lot of MIN ML at -125 which DK left up for a bit too long yesterday right before kickoff (NoVig was at -130/+127). If that game ended with MIN winning but GB still covering +7.5, it would have been massive, but still, it was arbed.

The only other big positions I had were PIT teased down to -.5, or an effective ML, and arbed out of that with ATL ML and a little piece of ATL +6.5. Basically free rolled on the middle. PIT won by 7, which stunk. Normally I would have found a way to get that extra point for the +7.5. But whatever, no real damage done.

I even found a new exploit on my PPH. He isn't charging enough to buy through a certain, key point. You can probably guess. So I was able to get a good 6 cent arb with big volume on two games too.

On all the random non NFL stuff I made a few units.

So I was going to bed last night thinking I had a really good week. Like, at least 10 units, maybe more. And I do my accounting this morning, all excited, and find out I lost a unit. And I swear to god, I just cannot figure out how. I don't know what happened! This is why it was a nightmare week. I wasn't kidding when I say that I literally have nightmares like this. That I forget to put in some massive hedge or double bet a teaser or something else stupid. Like there is some dumb, critical error in my sheets or something and I way over or under hedge or forget to put something in. It is a little tougher now with making orders on NoVig. It's possible I got something matched or didn't and recorded it wrong. I don't fucking know! I just have no idea how I was able to bink the SEA game, win money on non NFL straights, do all my teasers with perfect hedges, plus the arbs, PLUS the free bets and odds boosts, and come away DOWN a unit! This is quite literally the stuff of nightmares for me. Like I'm making a mistake with the teaser math or something? But I know its not the case, I double checked everything this morning. The only thing I can think of is that maybe, I guess, I was just absolutely free rolling on one of the teaser middles hitting? If CLE, ATL or MIN kept anything close, it would have been a huge week. I did hedge a lot of MIN on the ML instead of -7.5, but not all of it.

Even though it was a 'bad' week, big picture wise I'm still beyond excited for this NFL season. I lost a little bit on the PPH which, honestly, is a good thing. If GB covered, it would have been a massive win for me on there, right out of the gate on week 1. And with this new exploit I found, it might have been a blessing in disguise to not hit this guy for 5 figures literally week 1. As I've said before, I cannot believe he still lets me on there.

And I guess some growing pains are to be expected week 1 with an exchange. I do need to change a little bit of my set up to account for orders getting matched as the day goes on.

But, man. What a disappointing morning. I honestly thought I was forgetting an account or something. Still, as I write this, I'm befuddled. Embarrassing to even admit this.

Looking ahead, I have DEN +8.5 in a couple big teasers, plus some DEN +3.5 -145. I'll be hedging with KC -8.5 (I got some at +310) and I'm able to get KC -3.5 at +150ish.

TB looks like a great teaser leg right now. -8.5 at home vs CLE with a nice low total. I'd bet that goes towards 9 and not the other way around. I'll be watching for ATL to hit +1.5 on my PPH, and I'll be watching the LAC and BAL lines, too. 

That's all for today. 2026 NFL week 1 in the books! A bizarre start to the year! Check back soon!

And So It Begins. 2026 NFL Season Is Upon Us, Plus, First Semi-Wong Of The Year

 I guess I should apologize for my last post. I have determined that, yes, I am/was a little too online. I spent the long weekend on the somewhat mythical Block Island surrounded by family, friends and, believe it or not, a postcard-looking farm and farm animals, and it was just what I needed. A good unplugging, complete with quite possibly the best home cooked lobsters I have ever had in my life. It was sorely needed.

I stand by what I said, I still think we are absolutely coming apart at the seams, but I also think it probably always feels like this, in some way or another. I still cannot wrap my mind around the Clancy trial. I cannot believe it was one guy holding up an acquittal and not the other way around. The women taking selfies with her lawyer like he was a Real Housewife and showing up to her trial with their children to show support for the triple child murderer. It just fucking baffles me. I don't know who has had it worse PR-wise in the last half decade: black people, indian people, women, or the world of 'HiGhEr EdUcAtIoN.' But I digress. 

Today the 2026 NFL season officially kicks off. NFL is still King in the world of sports betting, especially for me. My long time, last man standing PPH book is back for another year of getting abused on teasers and (hopefully) his bizarre line moves. He has one up already on the very first game of the year. Right now I just got SEA -2.5 -115(!) for big volume where I'm able to get PATS +2.5 at +130 and even slightly better on NoVig. 

By the way, how about NoVig going to percents instead of American odds? I can't even begin to tell you how much I hate this. Not even an option to show American odds! Not yet at least. My volume on there has gone way down as a result. Obviously I can use an odds convertor an I am slowly learning how to read the percents, but man oh man. I didn't realize how well I understood American odds, apparently. Making orders and reading the order book is so much harder now. It's far from impossible, of course, but it is frustrating. My brain just cannot read the percents like American odds.

Anyway, percentage odds notwithstanding, I am especially excited for NFL this year. I feel like I am fully armed to really take advantage of the landscape. Besides my aforementioned PPH book that I cannot believe I still have access to, I also still have access to Draft Kings, Fan Duel, MGM, plus NoVig. I have pretty beefy balances at each one, too. My promos are drying up max bet wise, but they still come pretty much every day. I feel like a military general with high confidence in my various armies' quantity and also quality. I had some really lean years from 2021 to about 2023 to the point where I almost hung it up completely. I was still beating my head against the wall trying to model and I just could not give up trying to beat props. Since 2024, however, I mostly gave up on props and modeling and shifted heavily towards teasers and off-market straights with big middles and arbs and half-arbs. WAY more precise than ever. I had always done those things, but really learning the math behind teasers and getting on board with the legal books of the world pushed me up a level. Now with the addition of NoVig (mostly making), I feel like this could be a banner year for me. I'm already up more than twice the amount I made in my lean covid years, and NFL hasn't even started yet. Who knows, maybe I'll go full time again! (Just kidding. But it is starting to have that feel for me again which I love). 

I have my very first 'semi Wong' teaser of the year, too. I have SEA +3.5, JAX-2.5, GB +7.5 at +170 odds. Don't follow me on this bet though unless you're able to get it exactly the same as me or better (which you won't be able to). I can only get SEA +3.5 because my PPH put up SEA -2.5, and +170 for three teamers is nearly impossible to find these days. 

So I have quite the position for tonight. I have SEA at -2.5 -115 for a massive amount, plus the SEA +3.5 teaser. Then I was able to get the PATS buy back at absurd numbers, using all kinds of promos and odds boosts. I got $1k in free bets from a recent DK deposit bonus that I used on +3 and a little +3.5. I got a 20% odds boost from MGM which got me PATS +3 +127. I even got some PATS ML at +250 with a couple odds boosts but for a small amount. And the bulk of my buy back was PATS +2.5 at +131 on NoVig which is right about break even according to Pinnacle (although it looks like a good amount of SEA money is coming in as I type this). So I have money locked up no matter what happens but way more exposed to SEA, plus a nice big fat middle if it's a 3 point game either way. A great way to start 2026 NFL!

That's about it for me today. You can expect a lot more action from me on here for the rest of the year. I'll have my weekly recaps plus my longer form ramblings when the mood strikes me. I still have a BTC post to make but it's a bit less exciting now. Still need to update some things. I may do another stonks update as well. Feel free to leave a comment, thanks for reading and (Eric the midget voice) *bye for now!*

Does Anyone Else Feel Like They're Floating Into Outer Space?

 I can't quite pinpoint the exact feeling, but something close to 'floating and disappearing into thin air' feels close. It's similar to how I felt during the worst of the covid hysteria; like I truly do not know my fellow countrymen. At all. Like I'm the alien.

First it was the Jason Arday scandal. Then the armies of the worst and most predictable people imaginable lining up to absolutely nuke their reputations to defend him. Then he killed himself and we all found out he was a father, somehow, and it took a different turn. I even had a whole blog post ready to go: 'You Wouldn't Believe The Jason Arday Story If It Were In A Dystopian Science Fiction Novel.' Then the outright attacks on Nathan Confas, the man who outed Arday in the first place. Again, if you read that entire saga in a book by George Orwell, you would honestly think that it was too outlandish, even for a fiction book.

Then, of course, the Lindsay Clancy story. Truly, for the life of me, I cannot wrap my head around the support she is receiving, plus the fact that she's probably not even going to be convicted of murder. She purposefully sent her husband on a long errand, strangled her three tiny children to death, one by one, one of them had their fucking eyeballs pop out. Can you fucking imagine the confusion and pure terror that were those childrens' last moments?? And women are treating her like a celebrity! Taking selfies with her lawyer! I'm sure you've seen it all online. Imagine a man murdered his three kids and thousands of men show up to the court house to show support for him! And ask yourself this question: do you know the kids names? I wouldn't if I hadn't looked it up. Nobody seems to give a fuck about them. It is so dark, I'm finding it hard to write about. 

By the way, I am far from the first person to make this point, but the idea of seriously restricting women's rights in America is inching its way into the mainstream. If it becomes 'law' that this woman was not in charge of her own actions due to 'post-partum hormones' or whatever, then we need to have a few more conversations. That's for another day I suppose. But I cannot believe that women don't seem to understand the implications of this trial.

Then you have that 32 year old new mom getting murdered in NY by an obese should-have-been-an-Aztez-human-sacrifice 'woman', and the online left gleefully celebrating because the recently married and new mom had some mid level job at Bank of America. The 'believe all women' crowd celebrating a newly married, new mom getting knifed to death by an overstuffed tortilla who belongs in a nuthouse on the other side of the planet, all because she worked for a bank. Worked for a bank!! (It's actually because she was White and attractive. Don't believe me? If it were the same exact story but the killer was a White man and the victim was a black woman who also worked at BOFA, what do you think the lefts' reaction would have been? Be honest.)

And I keep thinking, am I just too online? If it weren't for the internet, I probably wouldn't know about any of these things. At least not in detail. But is the internet a funhouse mirror, distorting truth? Or a rock to lift up, exposing reality? (You might be able to tell from my metaphors that I spent a lot of time as a kid lifting up rocks looking for lizards and things).

I planned on writing about these stories but there's more than enough of that to go around.

What I come back to though is the overall feeling. Again, it's like I'm drifting into space. Like I don't know anything or anyone anymore. Nothing matters, everything is fake, everyone is awful and the future is bleak.

And I just hate this shit. I wanted to make a post RANTING about No Vig changing from American odds to 'percentages' and that being the way of the future, apparently. I want to talk about arbs and trading and the upcoming football season. I still haven't talked about my big boy BTC purchases.

I will get to all that but it feels like nonsense, right now at least. Like I just want to take my family and move into the woods where we never see another human being again. 

"When you just want to be left alone, you become a libertarian. When you realize they'll never leave you alone, you become something else."

Sorry for the absolute downer of a post. A few of these lately. I can only be honest and this is how I feel right now.

Exchanges Part 2

 I was thinking about my last post and realized that I had a few more things to say about using an exchange, market-making in general and a little bit more on NoVig specifically.

This will get into the weeds a bit. If you do use an exchange or are any kind of arber at all, you'll get something out of this. If not, you might want to wait until my next post.

I have made one subtle but very important change in the way I set up big arbs/scalps/half scalps. This is maybe obvious to everyone else but I just learn on my own as I go so I don't really know what the average arber does or how he goes about things.

The way arbing typically works is first you need to find something arb-able. Let's say I can bet a prop Over at +110 at one place and the Under at -105 at another place. One of these lines has to be fairly off market. Let's say the +110 is off market. I would max bet the +110, let's say the max bet is $1k. If your bankroll justifies it and you are confident that the +110 is indeed off market, your best play is to just let that $1k stand. However, with props especially, you can't always trust the market. So even if your bankroll does justify being naked with a $1k bet, it can oftentimes make sense to buy some back on the other side at -105. This will make your bet have better effective odds. Say you bet $1k to win $1.1k on the over at +110 and $525 to win $500 on the under at -105. Now your effective bet is Over $500 to win $575, or +115. The more you buy back, the better your effective odds but the less volume you get down.

This is pretty standard, straight forward stuff so far and something we've covered here before.

However, here is where I made a change.

Let's stay with the example above. Let's say I made both those bets and now have the 500/575 (+115) bet on the Over. In the past, I might arb that bet with something at, say, -112. After all, -112 is arb-able with +115. But when you do that, all you're really doing is cancelling out the bet you made at +110. 

Now, when I'm market making on NoVig, I will never take any bet that isn't better than my worst bet on the other side.

For example, say I get -104 matched on an MLB Team A and +110 matched on their opponent, Team B. The worst possible number I would take on Team B now would be +106, and the worst number I would take on Team A would be -108. No matter what. I never take any bets that are not a pure arb with the worst number I got on the other side. 

This is probably common knowledge and I did generally operate like this in the past, for the most part. But now I'm way more strict about it.

I think I learned this lesson from trading stocks/crypto. If you buy a stock at $10/share and then sell some at $20/share, you really are just locking in a loss if you buy back in at $21 or higher. I know there are other considerations with stocks like taxes and liquidity needs and whatnot, and sometimes things change and buying back in higher is the right play. But then that means that by definition, your sell at $20 was a mistake. It cannot possibly be true that selling at $20/share and buying at $21 or higher are both correct. One of those moves has to be a mistake.

Here's a good rule of thumb I think of often. If you could repeat whatever you are doing an infinite amount of times, would you make or lose money? If you buy a stock at $21 at sell at $20 over and over, you will lose all of your money eventually. If you do the opposite, buy at $20 and sell at $21, over and over, you will eventually have all the money in the world.

Same thing applies to arbing. If you can bet one side at -104 and the other at +106, over and over again, you would eventually win all the money. Literally.

So now I only take a bet if it is arb-able with the worst number I got on the other side. This also has the side-effect of making me way more picky about what I will even offer in the first place. 

I have mostly operated like this forever, but seeing it in a different form with stocks really crystalized the idea for me, and same thing with NoVig. Seeing all the bets in each arb very cleanly has nailed the point home for me. I used to only care about my effective odds. To me, a half scalp where I have +115 effective odds was no different than a regular bet at +115, which is still true. But now I realize that that isn't the whole story. You have to consider the bets that got you to +115 in the first place.

A couple tips about NoVig specifically that I forgot to mention:

One of their 'challenges' is to log in every day for a month straight. All that means is clicking on the app so it's pretty easy. However, you have to actually go into the challenge and click on 'claim points' at 5 days, 15 days and I think 25 days to actually claim it. Honestly it's barely worth it but if you're on there everyday anyway, you might has well know that.

Also, it can be a little tricky to use at first. You're offering bets on the opposite side of what you want, so it is possible to make mistakes. One time I put a plus sign on my offer when I meant to do a minus sign. So I got some bet at like -150 when it should have been +150, which is obviously a disaster. Honestly, I'm surprised that doesn't happen more often. NoVig does a neat little thing where they show you the best price you can offer and that's actually a good tool and a good way to not make a mistake like that. I am always sure to look at the market after I make an offer to make sure nothing looks weird. 

Lastly, always remember that this shit is zero-sum. You can only win if someone else loses. Winning money on an exchange long term is hard. Literally everyone else is trying to do the same thing (well I suppose that isn't exactly true. Some people do use them to lay-off action and as the hard sides of arbs so I guess there are people trying to lose on there. But they're winning that money and then some back in other places. So even they are taking money out of the whole ecosystem.) My point is that it isn't easy. Having any kind of profit long-term is commendable. Even the way I do it, offering markets on both sides of a game, is nowhere near fool proof. Plenty of times I'll get only one side filled and will be naked on a bet. Sometimes it'll be a really bad number too, if the market moved hard one way and I was too slow to react. So if I can maintain a 2% ROI on there, I would be pretty happy. I think 2-3% is about right. It'll be interesting to see what my ROI is after the NFL season. 

That's all for today, folks! Check back soon, bye for now!

Exchanges. The Future? Plus Tips And Tricks.

 In one of my recent posts, I mentioned how I had opened up an account at NoVig, a sports betting exchange. I've been betting on there just about every single day for about two months now, so I thought I would talk about how I use it, some small tips and tricks, and also what I think about exchanges in general.

First off, let me remind everyone that I am in no way affiliated with NoVig or any other sports book or any other THING. You'll see no referral links from me, ever, and everything and anything I say on here is 100% because I think it's true and I feel like telling people. That is it. 

(Also, one more thing before I dive in, my next post will be about my big boy BTC purchase(s)/strategy that I talked about last post).

So like I said, I opened an account at NoVig and have been using it quite a lot. First off, a quick review of NoVig specifically: Overall, I really like it. It's easy to use, super quick and light feeling, user friendly. It's app only though which does suck. I've read that they're working on a regular web page but we'll see. It's commission free which is awesome and one of the best things about it. They have far and away the best odds available for nearly everything when compared to normal sports books. Even against exchanges they're usually the best number on the board, sometimes on both sides. Think about that.

The better prices alone are worth signing up for, but they offer promos too. They aren't anything compared to regular sports books but they've amounted to something like $100 a month for me with small free bets and deposit matches.

I know this probably sounds like an ad almost but honestly, I can't quite recommend them enough. Not even NoVig specifically but just an exchange in general. The differences in the prices you can get are absurd. 

Negatives: the only real negative to an exchange is the liquidity. However, if you're the kind of bettor that worries at all about 'liquidity', you're almost for sure a professional. So if you are anything other than a full time professional sports bettor, you can definitely make use of an exchange.

Now, here is the way I use it. I just look at different lines and look for anything with a roughly 7 cent or better spread. So something lined at -120, +127 for example. Then I make even offers on both sides, usually at slightly better prices. As one side gets filled, I'll offer the other side plus an additional unit. So I basically have one unit at risk, flip flopping between sides as the orders get matched and my number gets better and better. I almost always end up with a bet of roughly one unit on one side at a price much better than the closing line. It's honestly pretty easy. A bit time consuming I suppose, especially with it all being on the phone, but nothing like making and using models. Not even close.

When I first signed up, you could make an offer at any price you wanted to. After being on there a couple weeks, they changed it so that you have to offer prices at better than one cent increments. For example, if someone is offering +120, I can't offer +121, it would have to be +122. The further from zero you get, the bigger the difference is. For instance, after +260 you have to offer +264.

And I swear to god, I think they made that change because of me. I was undercutting everyone and everything by one cent, lol. When I first saw the change I was pissed but I'm actually in favor of it now. I was honestly using it too much and spending way too much time building one cent arbs. Even if you get a decent amount down, it really isn't worth it. I try to get at least 3 cent arbs now.

A really good tip to using an exchange is to look at the order book. That will show you how much money is being offered at each price. Sometimes you'll see a a razor sharp line but the two best prices on the board are for less than 50 bucks. I generally treat any offer under 200 bucks as non-existent.

Another good tip is finding the right balance between patience and aggression. Sometimes you get one side filled and you want the other side to get filled as well, so you might make something of a panic offer. I have found that you usually want to err on the side of patience but not all the time. Sometimes you really do have to pounce. Finding that line is important.

Also, I almost never take. Over 90% of my action on there is through make orders. Except for live betting, I'm surprised that anyone takes anything. Why not do a make order and get yourself at least 3 cents better?

The way I use it is that I essentially become a bookie, except I don't have to interact with anyone or worry about getting paid - the two worst, by far, things about taking action. I can also limit what, when and how much I take action on.

The only real downside of this approach is when you have offers up on both sides of a line and the market moves hard one way. Then you get one side filled and are stuck with a losing bet. This does happen from time to time and is the reason I always start small and build as they get filled. Early on, I had the idea of just offering a big amount on both sides and letting them sit there and get filled throughout the day. But that's exactly how you can can get stuck holding one side of a bad bet. So now I always start small, usually 100-200 bucks on both sides, and increase as they get filled. It is more work but I think it's worth it.

An interesting thing I have discovered in the past couple months of doing this is that the path towards market efficiency isn't always a straight line. In fact, it usually isn't. For instance, say a money-line opens at -110. It might drift around all day, going to -105, then -111, then -117, then -122, then back to -117 and maybe closes at -115. It's not like it simply goes from -110 to -115. I believe that's called a 'random walk'. It's more similar to the stock market than I think I realized. Numbers get bought up and then the buyers lose steam and it starts going the other way. I've been so conditioned to 'follow steam' but sometimes that just means buying a number at the top. So if you do only get one side filled and have the market move against you, don't panic and go for a 0 arb, especially if there's plenty of time before the game starts. Of course, this isn't always the case but being this on top of so many market moves this season, I must admit I have learned more about markets in general and chasing steam is not the end all be all.

Another tip is to consider how far out the game is. I used to make offers on next day games but those got crushed. I never do that now. I generally wait for a few hours before game time before offering anything.

Also good to know is that liquidity comes in exponentially. In other words, way more money gets bet on a game the closer it gets. You'll be shocked at first at the flurry of orders that can get matched in the last 5 minutes before a game starts.

Overall, my ROI on there after about two months is just under 2% with a lot of volume. And that's with a good chunk of run bad in there, too. After my first weeks and nearly 400 bets, I was actually down a small amount. I honestly couldn't believe it considering how much I was beating the close, or at least how much it felt like I was. So I spent some time and looked back on a bunch of my bets and looked up the Pinnacle closing line. Sure enough, I was beating it on nearly all of my bets. It was just running bad and ever since then it's been a steady climb up. It goes to show the variance that can happen. If I didn't know better, I could have easily gotten discouraged and given up right before it turned around. So you do need to have a little bit of balls to grind away at it, day after day. Especially with baseball. What a grind baseball is, huh?

Since starting with NoVig, I have had one overall losing week out of 8, and that losing week was less than one unit. The wins aren't massive by any means, but with so many bets every day, the variance does tend to smooth itself out a bit. It's way less lumpy than NFL betting. Between the promo's I still get and NoVig, I'm honestly surprised when I have a losing week at all. 

As for exchanges in general, I am starting to come around to the idea that they are the future. It would certainly be on brand as the world gets more and more decentralized. If we can decentralize taxi cabs and hotels, we certainly can with sports books. The only action that I now give DraftKings or FanDuel or BetMGM are on their promos/odds boost and off market numbers. (Speaking of which, I could not believe how many arbs I was able to hit during the World Cup. Big, juicy 10+ cent arbs on stuff I was able to get over $2k down on the soft side of.)

To be honest, I'm actually a little bit worried about my DK stock now. I'm just about break even with it now sitting at 25ish a share. Next time it pumps I think I will trim some. I know sports books offer something slightly different than exchanges and exchanges can be a bit intimidating to a n00b, I suppose. But that's the case with anything new. I think that long-term, like 50 years, sports books will mostly be a thing of the past. I think they'll always exist in the same way that taxi's still exist, but the writing is on the wall. The future is decentralization.

That's about it for me today. I had an amazing World Cup, I must say. The amount of arbs and half-scalps I was able to get were incredible. (Here's an example off the top of my head: BetMGM had 'both teams to score' on the final game at -105. At the same time, I was able to get 'both teams not to score' matched at NoVig at +120. And I was able to get a little over $2k down at BetMGM. That's just one example of many). I couldn't believe how many live arbs there were, too. Live arbing is nerve wracking but I love it. I gotta admit, I was into soccer this year. The tourney was great entertainment. The diving and acting are so hard to watch and it is such a non-American sport, but it was fun to follow along and again like I said, the betting opportunities were excellent.

Up next I will dive into Bitcoin and my big boy plan/purchase. Until then, thanks for reading and bye for now!

Taking My Shot

I began my investing journey in early 2020, 6ish years ago. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing and just learned on the fly. I downloaded Robinhood and started with a $500 deposit. I've been adding money to RH and trading ever since. My ROI on everything right now is 20%ish, which isn't great. But that's with BTC being in a bear market and a big chunk of my holdings are BTC. My ROI was over 100% a few months ago.

And while it hasn't made me rich, investing has been awesome so far, to be honest. I love it. Slow and steady, never borrowing money, never going all in on anything, never doing anything stupid. Not even any options. Just trading stocks and crypto (mostly BTC).

And while it has been worthwhile, I can't help but feel that I've missed out somewhat. I have not made anything close to life changing sums. And while I didn't expect to in 5 years, I feel like I should have more. And with BTC kind of doing exactly what it always does, when it always does, now feels like the right time. You gotta take a risk if you want the gainz. And I have decided to finally take my shot.

So I borrowed a big chunk of money recently and I am going to use nearly all of it to buy BTC. I refuse to watch the bear market turn into a 10x bull market again from the sidelines, happy to make a few grand. I want my lambo! (not really but you know what I mean). I'm taking my shot! 

When I actually deploy the money I'll get more into the technicals so you guys can follow along. But for now I just wanted it out there. I have always been so cautious with investing but maybe a little bit to my own detriment. I have nearly 6 years in the game now. I'm far from an expert but I'm past the n00b level by now for sure.

Honestly, I spent the entire 4th of July thinking about this. And the conclusion I came to after some intense thought was 'why didn't I do this sooner'?

So I'm doing it! Fuck it! It's all fake fucking worthless numbers on a screen anyway.

Expect a fun update from me soon.

Bye for now!

I Think This Ends In War

I've been a little bit down since we last spoke, I must admit. The news, and maybe more importantly, the reaction to the news has somewhat floored me. 

If you don't know what I'm referring to (and I wouldn't even blame you, really, since the corporate media seems to be going out of its way to NOT cover a lot of this) here is a shortlist:

-This one has been in the news a lot obviously but Karmelo Anthony, a black high school student, murdered a White high school classmate in cold blood. Just about everyone knows this. However, he was sentenced to 30 plus years in jail and the reaction from the black community has been breath taking. Even for me, somewhat of an expert in this field at this point, the reaction by quite literally every single black person/account I have seen comment on this case was in support of Anthony. Saying he was justified in plunging a knife into the heart of his 17 year old classmate because he, Austin Metcalf, dared to ask Anthony to leave their tent, where Anthony went for the express purpose of getting into a confrontation. It's like one of them smoking on the subway or talking during the movies or cutting in line. It's a dare, an open invitation for violence. Anyone who has been out in a city a few times knows exactly what I'm talking about.

-Henry Nowak, a British teenager, was stabbed to death by a Muslim guy in a turban who, apparently, are allowed to walk around Britain with gigantic 'ceremonial' knives (I'd LOVE for some Euro cuck to explain the difference between a regular knife and a 'ceremonial' one). When the police arrived on scene, they handcuffed Henry, the kid who was stabbed! He bled out with handcuffs on, all because the Muslim guy told police that Nowak said something racist to him.

-Also in Britain, the Muslim Rape Gang report was released a few weeks ago. It states that something like 250,000 young girls have been systematically raped, tortured, abused, drugged, killed and kidnapped by gangs of Muslim men since the 70's. The report itself reads like something out of horror novel you'd have to send a check to purchase. It was largely ignored by the media/BBC, and some of the reactions to it, particularly by women, have been shocking, to say the least.

-A French 17 year old was beat to death by Muslims, who went back to the scene hours later and filmed the boy dying. They laughed and literally had a party over his dying body.

-New York just elected a woman, Daraliza Avila Chevalier, for local government who said that America deserved 9/11, among many other things:

-Oh yea, a disabled man was nearly be-headed in Belfast. Almost forgot about that one.

-Another Muslim guy tried to stab a group of school children. After he was thankfully subdued, a group of women held hands around him and made a human shield to protect him. To protect the guy who just tried to murder multiple children, right in front of them.

I could quite literally go on and on. But it's all the same: White people being either murdered, raped, stolen from or replaced in their home countries. Often, all four. 

And to be totally honest, I'm a little bit split over everything.

On the one hand, I sometimes think, am I just being manipulated by social media? The algorithms want me scrolling while appalled, and I sure do do that sometimes. 

But on the other much bigger hand, I see a grim, dark future. Maybe not for me, but if nothing changes, definitely for my children and their kids. Because where does all this lead? I mean it's no secret that just about every single non-White race out there seems to openly fucking despise us. That seems to be the core tenant of modern leftism today when you think about it. 

It doesn't look like voting our way out of this is an option, either. We can barely get anything done with Trump in office. It feels like with just one term of the next 'Democrat' president, we're going to get absolutely flooded with third world immigrants again, on top of 'pathways to citizenship' for the ones already here. I really do think that things are going to get worse before they ever start to get better.

So I just don't know, really. I've been really down about it at all. The 'empathy' people laughing at a report that states 250k young British girls were systematically raped on an industrial scale with politicians and police in on it. Every single black person on earth siding with Karmelo Anthony. 

The one good thing though I will say is that at least the conversation is changing. People are waking up, bit by bit. Every normie I've talked to about the Karmelo Anthony trial has been as flabbergasted as me. One of my friends said 'are we missing something?' which I thought encapsulates it fairly well. 

Yea, we're missing something alright. 

They hate us. They tell us they hate us. They video themselves beating children to death. They're proud of scamming welfare and food banks and whatever else they can possibly scam. They stab our children and our women create a human barrier around them, with the blood of 4 years olds still hot, dripping off his knife (which he is legally allowed to carry due to his 'religion').

I really do typically hate doomerism like this. It isn't productive. And I always remember in the back of my mind, every generation thinks some version of 'it's all over!' There's a famous quote by Socrates from 400 BC: "The young people of today think of nothing but themselves. They have no reverence for parents or old age. They are impatient of all restraint. They talk as if they alone knew everything and what passes for wisdom with us is foolishness with them. As for girls, they are forward, immodest and unwomanly in speech, behaviour and dress." 

So does it always feel like this? Will I be an old man one day, looking back and thinking 'boy that was a dumb thing to have been worried about'? Or will it be the exact opposite? I bet a lot of people in Europe wish they had done things differently 20 years ago as The Camp Of The Saints comes to life. (By the way, you must read that book if you haven't. It's scary how accurate it was, although honestly, if anything it wasn't harsh enough, given what we've seen now. Camp Of The Saints, and even Atlas Shrugged, mostly positioned the 'looter/migrant' class as shamelessly throwing their helplessness and ineptitude in our faces, saying 'it's your duty to save us!' They missed some of the anger though, in my opinion. The resentment. The envy. The burning, dumb anger in these peoples eyes).

Anyway, that's about where I am right now with it all. Like, am I being genocided? Right now? I mean, I just watched the 2 part Real Housewives Of Rhode Island reunion. I live on a cul de sac. I can't claim to be a victim of anything right now, really. Well except for nearly half of my income being effectively stolen from me. But is that part of the insidiousness of it all? How quiet it is? Busses full of fighting age men from the third world being dropped off in Nowheresville, Ohio in the middle of the night. Boat after boat filled with nothing but young men washing ashore in France and Britain, being welcomed with new phones and new houses. Funding our own demise. Video after and video of groups of black kids stomping on someones head. Before 2020, how many times had you seen a video of someone getting their head stomped on? How many videos did you see of women getting knocked out? How many have you seen since? 

So where does this all lead? Both parties are getting more and more extreme. Is this the end result of every Democracy? Eventually the parties inch further and further apart, one side votes to take the resources from the other side and it slowly gets worse and worse until there is war. 

Look at this tweet. It's supposed to be 'evidence' of people harmed or killed for the USAID cuts. We (you) are expected to pay for the diesel inside of ambulances in Libera, Africa. Anything short of this is murder.

Honestly, really read that tweet. Think about what all of that implies. That these people have no agency whatsoever, even expecting them to pay for their own fuel for their ambulances is too much of an ask. The burden falls on you, American taxpayer four thousand miles away, for some inexplicable reason. And this isn't a fringe view at all. Roughly half of all people in this country feel this way.

So that's why I think that this ends in war. One side says the other owes it infinity dollars for an infinite amount of time and they are not interested in talking it out anymore. You throw in the SCOTUS decision that just came out today that basically says that everyone on the planet is an American, and I see darkness ahead.

I know I'm a bit scattered with it. I'm honestly not 100% sure how I feel about everything. I don't even want to be thinking about this shit. I want to talk about sports betting and Bitcoin and Fourth of July hot-dog eating contests. But we can't just keep moving and paying and pretending not to see things. I know I don't want America to be less White and I know I don't give a fuck what anyone thinks about that. I know that nearly half of this country treats the other half like they're owed something from them, forever. And I know I'm done pretending not to notice really obvious and important things. 

Random things:

-This picture could go down in history. That is Scott Weiner, one of the most far left, pro trans rights LGBT-whatever politicians out there. This guys has gotten actual laws passed to further 'trans rights'. And here he is, getting booed out of some weirdo, trans march in San Fran. Reminds me of a great passage in (again, sorry I keep mentioning this book but it really got things right) Camp Of The Saints where one of the White, liberal activists who was on the ship of migrants and helped organize it in the first place, is shoved off it to his death. It says something like as he fell from the boat, in the time it took to hit the water, he realized his entire lifes work was nothing but a lie. They threw him overboard the second they could.

-Here's some perspective on things. This fourth of July, ask your boomer aunts and uncles, which do they think is more? Per 100k deaths per year, people dying from the heat in Europe? Or people dying from gun murders in America? It's nearly 500% MORE Euro cucks dying from the heat. (How fucking pathetic is that, by the way? Imagine living somewhere where they tell you you're not allowed to buy an AC unit? Has Europe always been this cucked?) Now imagine only White gun murders. That number would be less than 2.

-A 14 year old black kid was arrested for the armed robbery of an 11 year old White kid at his lemonade stand. They pulled a gun and took the cash box. The second suspect is still on the loose. Can you imagine this story with the races reversed? Your brain literally can't do it. Go ahead, try right now. Try to picture it in your head. Why do we live like this? 

-Two new Canadians pouring their used oil right down a catch basin. Can you imagine the shit like this that goes on everyday, completely unnoticed? 

-Isn't diversity great?

-Look at how they talk about us. This is Chauntyll Allen, a school board member at St Paul Public school (@SPPS_News).

-Oops! Honest mistake, I'm sure.

-When Reddit has to decide between pretending to care about 'sex workers' or black peoples 'lived experiences':

-This is the shit that was going on before the 'colonizers' came.

-Lastly, this headline was too much to ignore. This is 100% real: 

Report: Female cop shoots Jewish rabbi outside Pornhub office in Canada while hiding from Marxist gunman who killed immigrant officer named Mohamed

Here's the video

The Most Fun Betting I've Had In Years

One thing that has always sort of bothered me about my current betting set up is the square action I give at Pinnacles price. I have a deal with someone/something where I can book anything at Pinnacles price for pretty much any amount. It's always good to have access to a sharp book for the 'hard' side of arbs and scalps. It's a good deal for me but an even better one for the guy booking my Pinnacle bets. I am almost always trying to lose any bet I place at Pinny's price (because I almost always have the opposite side for bigger at a soft site. This would be the 'soft' side of the arb). 

This arrangement has worked fine for years and years. But I am constantly giving this guy money and once I saw the promos and deals I get from square books, it occurred to me that I should be getting something back from the Pinny side. Since that is not going to happen, however, I started thinking about ways to get down at even better prices. But who has better sharp prices than Pinnacle? No one, really, or so I thought. But then I noticed something called 'NoVig' having the best prices on all the odds screens. I could tell from their lines that they were an exchange and I had always assumed those were illegal ever since Matchbook closed to the US. I clicked through to them one day and saw that they were an exchange and were perfectly legal in my state! I had no idea. How did that news possibly not reach me? 

Well anyway, to make a long story short, I opened an account on NoVig. And let me tell you something. I have not had as much fun or gotten better prices betting in maybe a decade. I used to use Matchbook way back in the day and I forgot how awesome exchanges are. You can't believe the prices I am getting! I almost always make markets instead of taking them and I get nice fat arbs all day. I used to pat myself on the back for beating the close by a few cents, but lately I am smashing it. Consistently, too. 

Something about NoVig feels perfect for me, too. There's enough liquidity that you can get down a decent amount, but there's also not so many people on there that everything is razor sharp, 1 cent lines. There's room enough to get in there on both sides of most games. If you're betting under $1k a game, there's more than enough to eat on there.

This is another one of those things that I can't believe I wasn't already using. I almost can't even describe how fitting an exchange is for me and the way I bet, especially these days. I really am a trader at heart. I can't wait to use this for NFL. And I don't have to worry about cover or getting limited or anything.

So I have replaced my 'hard arb side' book where I am trying to lose with one where I am not only paying way less juice, but one where I actually expect to make a profit. I've already doubled my balance on there in less than two weeks.

I will probably do another post down the line more about using an exchange, tips and tricks and the way I make it work for me. But for now I just wanted to give a little update in case anyone else out there didn't know about these guys. I gotta say, I can't remember ever seeing a single ad for NoVig and I'm positive I would have noticed. 

That's it for me today, just a quick update. I have been betting way more since getting this account though so expect some more betting posts soon. Bye for now!