Been a little while since we last spoke. There just hasn't been much going on betting-wise, unfortunately. When sports finally do start back up I anticipate I'll be updating much more frequently. But until then, let's focus back on politics where there has been A LOT of changes and a lot to discuss.
But first I want to correct something I wrote about in my last post about the lottery. Turns out I did the math wrong. Ever since I made that post it's been bugging me a little bit - it seemed a little too good to be true and I really wasn't 100% on the math. I did some digging and more research and it was way more complicated than I initially thought. Luckily my overall hunch was right - I am making +EV bets on these. But the edge is small; something like 52%. So it's still worth betting at even odds but not anything worse than that. To that dude that commented that he could get them at -130, sorry but it's a bad bet. Hope I didn't cost you or anyone else any money betting on those. Although if I did, look at the bright side; your bookie probably thinks you're a fish so at the very least you should have more runway time at your account.
Which actually reminds me of a really good piece of advice that not many people know. I forget if I've mentioned this on here or not but either way it's worth repeating. This only applies to PPH users (though I suppose you could work this out at a regular book too). If you have a PPH account, a good reputation and either a really good or really bad agent, you can sometimes negotiate a percentage off of your weekly losses. It's very simple - if you get, say, 10% off of weekly losses and you lose 1k in a week, you just owe 900. But then if you win 1k the next week, you get the whole 1k. So you can see how profitable this is. Even if you're just a breakeven bettor you'll be in +EV land. The best is when you have two or more accounts that have this kind of deal. Then you can do massive 0EV arbs (aka bet Team A money line at -120 and their opponent money line at +120) and still make money. The goal is to simply "move" money from one account to the other. If you had 10% off of weekly losses, did all 0EV arbs and got one account to +5k and the other account to -5k in a week, you win 500 bucks. All without actually having to actually win any money.
The best time to ask for this is during a downswing. Say you have three bad weeks in a row. When you meet your agent the third week and pay him no problem, he's going to be close to ecstatic. Remember, these guys get stiffed all the time and that's usually how it happens. Someone losses a few weeks in a row, they pay up every week, then they just disappear without paying after the last week. The bookie rarely goes after him since he just got crushed 2 or 3 or more weeks in a row anyway. It's so common that it's almost expected with new players, especially ones my age at the time. So when you show up with a full envelope and no problems, he's going to be very happy thinking he has an actual whale on the hook. That's the time to ask.
I had a dream of an account back when I was just starting out to get really into this. The agent was a solid but clueless older guy and we never had any issues. I had a 4 or 5 week BRUTAL downswing one time and every week I went to him and paid him no problem. My other bookie friend at the time told me about how he gives a couple of his better customers a percentage off of their weekly losses. I had never heard about this before but it was like kindling in my little sports betting brain. So I came up with a plan; the next time I had a big weekly loss I went in and as I handed him the envelope I said I had another account with a different agent who offered me 10% off of weekly losses. I said I really didn't like the other guy and his site though and would much rather put my action in with him and his account if he can match the offer. (Whether you have the other account or not doesn't matter, obviously). He ended up giving me a ridiculous 20% off (he must have thought I'd be bleeding money to him for years) and for the next couple months I beat him up so bad that he got so buried in makeup that he literally quit being an agent altogether (and stiffed me the last week and disappeared from his job).
[Fun aside; I was always confused as to why they didn't cut me off sooner from this account. I'm not kidding when I say I absolutely crushed him at the end, and it lasted for months. He just kept paying me, week after week. It would have been a bloodbath even without the 20% off the losing weeks, but you can imagine. I found out later that his 'boss' was out of the country the whole time and cut me off as soon as he got home and found out. He actually called me on the phone and we had one of the most bizarre phone conversations I've ever had. Apparently he lived with and ran the book with his mother which he kept mentioning for some reason. And he was mad at me for never tipping the agent. LOL I still remember him saying 'back in the day when a guy won $xxxxx in a week he'd tip his agent a hundred bucks!' And I shot back 'I never got a tip in the 2 months before that when I was getting killed'. And he goes (I'll never forget his exact words) 'ok ok you're right. Let us forget that and NEVER SPEAK OF IT AGAIN.' And he had the most effeminate voice. He sounded exactly like Mark Harris when he used to go on Howard Stern. I know you don't know who Mark Harris is so google it, it'll be worth it. Oh and then he called me back and started talking to me ABOUT me, thinking he called the agent. One of my biggest regrets is cutting him off and not letting him go on and on. It really was fucking weird.]
Anyway, the shorter the time period of the percentage off of losses the better. Weekly is standard, which is the best way to do it. I did have one account though that gave me a piece off of monthly losses which isn't great but better than nothing. 5-10% is standard, 15% is great and anything above that is highway robbery. So if you have been betting and losing on the lottery because of me, now would be a perfect time to request it. Even at 5% a week, you'll more than make up for anything you might have lost.
Now let's switch to the only thing really going on right now. Politics. Ugh, I know. Isn't it the worst. As usual when there's a big Team One Side vs Team Other Side national debate I find myself disagreeing vehemently with both sides. 'Defunding the police' is such a comically bad idea (and terrible slogan), and the stats on police brutality just simply do not add up to what the left is saying, at all. But at the same time, policing in this country does need reform. I mean, as a libertarian and an American and just a human being, the thought of an agent of the state, with over 10 complaints of excessive force on his record, kneeling on a mans neck until he dies, in broad daylight knowing he's being filmed, is awful.
I think it comes down to two big things; police unions and the fact that we ask cops to do too much. Police unions are the reason why a cop with dozens complaints of excessive force is not only still on the street, but feels empowered to behave that way. I think that part is key. If cops didn't know that they had a union behind them that will protect them, and very effectively at that, no matter what, I think you might see overall attitudes change.
I also think that we simply ask cops to do too much. Think about the spectrum of events a police officer is expected to handle. Imagine what it takes to respond to an active shooter situation, or to stop an armed robbery, or be in a high speed chase with a guy shooting out the window at you, or handle violent, belligerent people day after day. It takes a certain kind of person for which a society absolutely does need. Now do we need this person to respond to calls on the very end of the other side of the spectrum? Minor traffic infractions, public intoxication, maybe some non-violent domestic disputes or whatever else is considered easy by police. Get their feedback. Anything where there's like less than 2% chance of having to pull a gun. We ask cops to do the work of social workers, but would never ask a social worker to do the job of a cop. Imagine a guidance counselor in a shootout. It's preposterous. Maybe we should be thinking of that the other way around too. Oh and pay them more! Then you'll get better applicants. Less armored SWAT tanks for suburban towns, and more money towards payroll. You could even use incentives; pay cops a little bonus every month they don't have a complaint or something like that.
Anyway, those are my thoughts whatever it's worth. As for the markets, there have been some big moves. In general, everything is moving in the Democrats favor. The overall presidency market, all the state markets and those for the house and senate have moved in favor of the left. I jumped on quite a few state markets early and got in at some really good prices. I'll post them here because they're part of my overall position on this election obviously, but I put them in so long ago and the prices are so far gone that it won't be much use to anyone. Right now I'm really heavy on Democrats. I have bets on them to win the House and Senate and now a bunch of states. I'd like to start buying back on Republicans because I don't think their price is going to get much worse, but as usual I'm up against limits and places to bet. I might have some new accounts on the horizon actually which would be awesome, but we'll see.
The most interesting market though, of course, is the VP market. BIG changes here. Klobuchar went from the favorite to taking herself out of the nomination process altogether after the George Floyd incident. It now seems like there is literally zero chance that the winner will be anything other than a black woman. Kamala Harris has seen her price shoot all the way up to a current high of 54% and is now very much the clear favorite. Val Demings is in second at 16% (topped out at 23% a few weeks ago) and in third is Susan Rice at 13% (topped out at 18% mid June). Liz Warren is in a distant 4th at 6% and there's a bunch at 3-5%.
I may have lost my mind quite a bit in this market and now have way more invested in it than I would have liked. Almost 25 units total. All my Klobuchar and Whittmer bets are toast, and the nibbles on Baldwin, Buttigegigig, Abrams, Grisham and Duckworth have added up. Here's what I have, in total in this market:
Harris: risk 12u to win 20u (+165)
Klobuchar: risk 3u to win 19.1u (+635)
Warren: risk 2.3u to win 30.2u (+1400)
Demings: risk 2.25u to win 20.1u (+930)
Whitmer: risk 2.8u to win 18u (+640)
Duckworth: risk .6u
Mayor Pete: risk .4u
Baldwin: risk .3u
Abrams: risk .75u
Grisham: risk .4u
I think I probably made too many bets here but other than the Mayor Pete one and maybe Grisham, none of them were really outright disasters. I got in good and early on Harris at +285 and +275 but as things changed over the past couple weeks I had to go kind of heavy on +175, and then +125, and even a little at even odds, which brought my overall position down quite a bit. So as you can see, if it's Harris or Warren I show a good profit. If it's Klobuchar, Demings, Whitmer or Duckworth I about break even. If it's Abrams or Grisham or Baldwin it's not too bad, and anyone else and it's a bloodbath.
The obvious exposure here is Susan Rice. Right now she's at 13%, so I have a 13% chance of getting scooped totally. That is not ideal. I can't find anything resembling a good price for her, and even if I could, I can't keep chasing every woman who shows up in this market. I mean, did Gretchen Whitmer ever really have a chance? Or Stacey Abrams? To be Vice President Of The United States? I don't know. If I had kept it to Klobuchar, Warren and Harris the whole way I'd be really looking pretty. Then I could buy some Rice insurance.
Certainly learned some good lessons for these longer term, dynamic markets. The world changes fast and they're volatile as hell. How to capitalize on that is another story, but for now it's good to just start with the foundation that I should expect the VP market in March to almost certainly look different than it will in July.
I personally think that it will be Harris and that she'll hurt Biden's chances of winning. But man, Pence vs Harris in the VP debates will be fucking feisty and fun as hell to watch.
I still have Biden To Win The Nomination pending. I got in for an average price of -135 to win 12.5 units. That'll be nice when it settles. I also have an awful position for which side will win the popular vote. I basically locked in a small loss since I got in early on Republicans and their price has cratered. If they happen to pull it off I win about 5 units, but if/when the Dems win I'll lose about 1.5u.
Here's everything I have for state bets. Again, these were pretty juicy when I made them weeks ago and they've only gotten better so I don't think anyone will be able to get these prices or anything close to it. I will try to post a lot closer to when I make the bets from now on.
These are all for Democrats to win:
Florida: +130 risk 1.5u
Georgia: +200 risk 1.1u
Iowa: +210 risk 1.1u
Michigan: -175 to win .75u
N. Carolina: +140 risk 1u
Arizona: -105 to win 1.25u
Nevada: -330 to win .85u
Ohio: +160 risk 1u
Texas: +240 risk .75u
Every single one is better than the current PredictIt price which is great. One of my books has Trump to win at +120 which I would love to hit for about 10 units right now and really just round my position out and take the big arb, risk-free money on election night. I really should just make a PI account and bet on Trump to win at 43%, actually. Because as it stands now, if it's a Trump win and he wins a lot of these states, I would take a pretty big hit. Especially if Dems lose the House and the Senate.
Which, for completeness sake, my position is...
Dem to win the house: -300 to win 1u
Dem to win the Senate: +135 risk 1u
Dem to win House and Repub to win Senate: +120 risk .5u
Dem to win House and Senate: +140 risk 1u
And my current total position on to win the overall presidency:
Trump: risk 16.3u to win 12.7u (-130)
Biden: risk 7.7u to win 22u (+285)
Others: loss of 3u
So that is EVERYTHING politics wise. Whew! Plus the 20 something units already in the bank from the primaries. I think I will be looking to get down on some Trump to win in the next couple days or weeks. Feels like the perfect time.
That is it for me. This was a long one, thanks for reading. Oh and I'll have that thing to sign up for email alerts when I have a new post soon, I promise.
