2020 NFL Draft Results

The first round of the 2020 NFL Draft is in the books!

Overall I gotta say they did a pretty amazing job production wise so hats off to ESPN/the NFL. They had like 6 people on remotely through zoom and they weren't talking all over each other at all. I watched for the first hour or so and the whole thing was pretty seamless. It was cool seeing the owners and GMs at their houses in their little war rooms and seeing the players with their families reacting in real time was interesting too. And I actually liked the delay because everyone at home that you'd see didn't know they were on TV until like 30 seconds later so you could really see people in their natural habitat. Jerry Jones at home was exactly how I imagined; him sitting by himself on a big couch in a gigantic, empty hospital-looking room with his terrified-looking wife and son (I assume) making brief appearances to awkwardly half hug him after spending another first round pick on a fast wide receiver...just perfect. And I thought Goodell was actually pretty good too, albeit stiff as a board (*robot voice* "come on fans. lets hear it. you can boo harder than that. ha. ha. ha.")

So let's dive in and see how we did. Did we hit any middles? Did we get roasted on any polish middles? Did we make some money? Let's find out.


Georgia players drafted:

o1.5 -125 to win 1.5u W
u1.5 +140 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0


More PAC12 players over BIG12:

PAC12 +1 +180 risk .56u L
BIG12 -.5 -280 to win .5u W

This was a half middle where I was hoping to push the +1. It was close with it being 5 and 3 but they dont pay you for being close.

Result: -.06u

Clemson players vs Ohio St players:

Clemson: +.5 -140 to win 1.5u W

Ohio St: -.5 +155 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

Defensive players drafted:

u15.5 -145 to win 1.5u W

o15.5 +155 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

Defensive Backs drafted:

u6.5 -175 to win 1.5u W

o6.5 +200 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

ACC players drafted:

u2.5 +195 risk 1.5u L

o2.5 -190 to win 1.5u W

Result: 0u. Starting to regret not making some of these even arbs :(

Offensive Lineman drafted:

o5.5 -275 to win 1.5u W

u5.5 +300 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

Alabama players vs LSU players:

Bama -.5 +125 risk 1u L

LSU pk +230 risk .75u W

This was the polish middle where Id win if they picked anything other than the same amount, which luckily they did. LSU picked 5 and Bama picked 4 where was right around what was expected (lines for both schools were 5/5.5ish). So I consider this one a job well done.

Result: +.8u

LSU players drafted:

u5.5 -225 to win 1.5u W

o5.5 +245 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

Ohio St players drafted:

u2.5 -340 to win 1.5u L

o2.5 +400 risk 1.5u W

Finally a free roll that went my way. One of the juicier ones too.

Result: +.9u

Oklahoma players drafted:

u2 +145 risk 1.5 P

o2 -135 to win 1.5u P

Both pushed. Result: 0u.

First WR drafted:

Jeudy +115 risk 1u L

Lamb +120 risk .6u L

Absolute blunder. This was the only bet I made that I truly hated in hindsight. Henry Ruggs went first to the Raiders (of course). Either way, I definitely wasn't getting good enough numbers for this to be a good bet. Lost both. Bummer.

Result: -1.6u.

Justin Herbet draft position:

o5.5 -110 to win 1.5u W

u5.5 +125 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u.

I. Simmonds draft position:

u6.5 -115 to win 1.5u L

o6.5 +124 risk 1.5u W

I have the same bet but for more volume coming up. The numbers on this guy were all over the place on all my accounts, all the way up until the start of the draft too.

Result: +.14u

Offensive players drafted:

u15.5 +230 risk 1u L

o16.5 -140 to win 1u W

This was another polish middle where I'd only lose if it was exactly 16. The final number was 18 which was a LITTLE bit too close for comfort but I'm ok with this bet. Sizing could have been better though. I wish I went a little bit smaller on the over bet to lock in profit either way.

Result: 0u

QBs drafted:

o4.5 +380 risk .5u L

u4 +120 risk .5u P

Polish middle where I was betting on anything other than 4 QBs being taken. It was exactly 4 and I lost on it but that doesnt necessarily mean it was a bad bet. I could have got way better odds on the over bet though - I think I was seeing +500 late on Friday. So I don't think it was a great bet by any stretch but I don't think it was terrible either.

Result: -.5u

Clemson players drafted:

u1.5 +175 risk 1.5u L

o1.5 -165 to win 1.5u W

Result: 0u

Wide Receivers drafted:

u5.5 +210 risk 1.5u L

o5.5 -200 to win 1.5u W

Result: 0u

Draft spots:

Jordan Love

o15.5 -120 to win .5u W

Jerry Jeudy

o11.5 -150 to win .25u W

Ceedee Lamb

o14.5 +150 risk .25 W

These were nice (thanks Rsigley!)

Result: +1.13u

Clemson vs Oklahoma players

Clemson +.5 -190 to win 1.5u W

Oklahoma pk +155 risk 1.5u P

Bink! Nailed this one. Both were expected to pick around 2 and both picked exactly 2, so I pushed one and won the other. This one went exactly as planned which is always nice.

Result: +1.5u

Big 10 Players

o5 -165 to win 1.5u P

u5.5 +145 to win 1.45u W

Binkarooski! Here we go! 5 Big 10 players went round 1 so this one went exactly according to plan too. Only possible nitpick is that the under bet could have been slightly bigger but I was up against limits.

Result: +1.45u

Clemson Players

o1.5 -230 to win 1.5u W

u1.5 +300 risk 1.25u L

I was able to pull this arb off twice with two different accounts and at way different odds. This one was particularly juicy and I made sure to lock in profit no matter what.

Result: +.25u.

Linebackers

o3.5 +120 risk 1.45u W

u3.5 +105 risk 1.5u L

This where I switched to arbs instead of free rolls which I maybe should have been doing from the start.

Result: +.25u

ACC Players

o2.5 -305 to win 1.5u W

u2.5 +320 risk 1.45u L

Another arb I was able to hit twice with two very different lines.

Result: +.05u

Auburn Players

o1.5 +280 risk 1.4u W

u1.5 -240 to win 1.5 L

This one was pretty surprising with the juicy over hitting.

Result: +.32u

SEC Players

u15.5 -115 to win 1.5u W

o15.5 +125 risk 1.4u L

Result: +.1u

A. Thomas draft position

u10.5 -105 to win 1.1u W

o10.5 +120 risk 1.1u L

Result: +.06u

Okudah Draft Position

o4.5 +120 risk 1.5u L

u4.5 +100 risk 1.65u W

Result: +.15u

Chaison Draft Position

o16.5 -150 to win 1.5u W

u16.5 +160 risk 1.45u L

Result: +.05u

Pac 12 Players

o2.5 +155 risk .5u W

u2.5 -150 to win .5u L

Result: 0u

Tua Draft Position

u4.5 +220 risk 1u L

o3.5 -270 to win 1.5u W

This was one of the more interesting ones where I was really taking over 3.5 but bought back some with u4.5 for the half arb/middle. In hindsight I suppose I could have just rode naked on the over as there was really no chance at all of Tua going top 3 and he ended up going exactly where everyone thought - number 5 to the Dolphins. I'll take the half unit win here though, gladly.

Result: +.5u

Jeudy Draft Position

o12.5 +150 risk .9u W

u11.5 +115 risk 1u L

This was the polish middle where I win if went anywhere but 12. I was watching this live and thought for sure I was dead. The Raiders were at 12 and actually picked a WR! Luckily they went with Ruggs from Alabama and Jeudy went 15 to the Broncos. Living on the edge somewhat with this one but Ill take it!

Result: +.25u

I. Simmonds Draft Position

o6.5 +105 to win 2.9u W

u6.5 +125 to win 3.1u L

Same as the other Simmonds bet obviously but this one for more volume.

Result: +.33u

J. Love Draft Position

o18.5 -130 to win 1.5u W

u19.5 +130 risk 1.5u L

Result: 0u

So that's it! Final unit count: +6.07 units. Not bad at all; little bit better than I expected actually and I think I ran slightly bad on the free rolls. 

So what did we learn? The biggest takeaway from this for me BY FAR is just how juicy this was. Really similar to politics this year; a market I'm somewhat new to with lines absolutely all over the place. I honestly can't think of a single event I've ever bet on with this many free arbs available (and for days.) Maybe the Superbowl with props/derivatives? I think the Superbowl usually has as many or more arbable bets but they're not as juicy. You might see lots of +105, +100 arbs for the Super bowl, but I mean I got +300/-230 on one of these and had plenty of fat 20-cent-plus arbs. On top of the cheap and free middles (I even had a clean free round middle with a 20 cent arb that I put in last minute and didn't count here. It was J Love draft spot: o18.5 -130 and u19.5 +150. I mean that is banana land crazy). So these lines were really out of whack. And yea, the limits are small but they're not exactly peanuts. This isn't big, normal straight-bet limits, but it isn't tiny hot-dog eating contest limits either. 

I think my performance/analysis was fine too. Of course I could have spent more time analyzing for some of the polish middles and could have done more (any) research on the actual nuts and bolts of this draft, but I don't see many bets that I wouldn't have made looking back. The first WR off the board bet was obviously trash and the Tua bet was questionable. Take those out and I'm up another 2 units. But everything else was pretty solid in my opinion. And here's the thing; I probably spent 2-3 hours on this total, if that. I've spent more time blogging about it than anything. So yea, you can always spend more and more time on something but time is valuable. Every time you do something you're choosing not to do everything else. My 'hourly rate' on this was terrific and I feel really good about it. Are there other, more profitable (and time consuming) ways to go about betting on something like this? Of course. With the lines being so whacky, I'm sure there were plenty people with excellent draft expertise who really did their research and took positions on it and really cleaned up. Hats off to 'em! Plenty of ways to skin a cat (what an awful saying) and this is just my own way of ridding a cat of his skin (fur? What is skinning a cat exactly?)

Second takeaway is bet sizing (as usual). As you can see, a lot of the free rolls went against me. On the second day I started turning the free rolls into more evenish arbs and was able to pick up a good 1-2 units or so in loose-arb-change. I think on something like this in the future, I'll err more towards arbs and locking up profit no matter what instead of taking a side. I'll have to think about that more though. 

So that is it for the 2020 NFL Draft. If you aren't really into all this with the unit counts and the bets and odds etc, I dont blame you. It isn't the most exciting content and most posts won't be like this. But thank you for reading either way and I'll be back discussing politics and political trading going forward. Next blog will be later today or tomorrow. I'm going to find a way to set up an email newsletter or something similar that people can sign up for and get notifications when there is a new post. Until then continue to check back and you can count on one post per week at the very least. Let me know what you think in the comments. Bye!

NFL Draft Part 2

I have a big political round-up blog coming but first I want to finish off everything I have for the draft tonight. I honestly cannot believe how many arbs and middles were available (and still are). I actually ran out of credit on some of my accounts, between the draft and political bets still pending. I can't believe I haven't done this before - I'm not sure if the books are putting up way more lines this year since there are no other sports on or if I just somehow completely missed this in the past. Either way, I have a lot in action tonight and I'm really liking my positions.

This will be like the last post, lots of bets and little explanations. It's probably pretty dry to some so if it aint your thing, check back soon for the big politics/VP market blog.


2020 NFL DRAFT BETS, PART 2

(First round props)

Clemson vs Oklahoma players

Clemson +.5 -190 to win 1.5u
Oklahoma pk +155 risk 1.5u

This line in particular has been all over is the place and actually still is. Here I'm paying a little bit for a decent payoff if they take the same amount. Both schools are expected to have about 2 each go in round 1 so I like it. But then again, I also have...

Clemson pk -180 to win 1u
Oklahoma pk +195 risk 1u

I put these in about a week apart. It's crazy that I got Clemson +.5 at -190 and Clemson pk at -180 (and OK pk at +195!) So looks like a lot of line movement - makes sense, I'd bet there's more money in action on this draft than ever before.


Big 10 Players

o5 -165 to win 1.5u
u5.5 +145 to win 1.45u

Half-middle here, more exposed on the over which was way off-market. The under 5.5 was too so I like these two together.


Clemson Players

o1.5 -230 to win 1.5u
u1.5 +300 risk 1.25u

Look how juicy that arb is. +300 and -230 available at the same exact time. A free .25u or .3u, either way. Man if this were a few years ago and I had three times the amount of accounts I do now, this would have been wild (well, as wild as arbing and middling can be).


Linebackers

o3.5 +120 risk 1.45u
u3.5 +105 risk 1.5u

I went with 1.45u and smaller on some of these to lock up money either way. Here I either win .05u or .25u.


ACC Players

o2.5 -305 to win 1.5u
u2.5 +320 risk 1.45u

Same thing as above. Gonna fly through some of the simple arbs.


Auburn Players

o1.5 +280 risk 1.4u
u1.5 -240 to win 1.5


SEC Players

u15.5 -115 to win 1.5u
o15.5 +125 risk 1.4u


A. Thomas draft position

u10.5 -105 to win 1.1u
o10.5 +120 risk 1.1u


Okudah Draft Position

o4.5 +120 risk 1.5u
u4.5 +100 risk 1.65u


Chaison Draft Position

o16.5 -150 to win 1.5u
u16.5 +160 risk 1.45u


Pac 12 Players

o2.5 +155 risk .5u
u2.5 -150 to win .5u (ran out of credit)


Tua Draft Position

u4.5 +220 risk 1u
o3.5 -270 to win 1.5u

This one is interesting. The main bet is over 3.5 but I didn't love being naked for 1.5u at -270. I didn't hate it and honestly would have been ok leaving it, but u4.5 at +220 was too juicy to pass up. So I win a little bit if its o3.5, lose 2ish units if its u3.5, but win both bets (3.7u) if it's exactly 4. Paying 50 cents to middle an entire pick seemed too cheap to me, especially when he's expected to go no lower than 5.

The general consensus is that he's going to Miami at 5, and the Chargers at 6 if hes there. The Giants are at 4 and have Daniel Jones and haven't seemed all that interested in taking Tua, BUT there are some rumors that they might trade out of the pick (I heard to the Jags today). I could totally see some bumfuck team moving in to swoop up Tua in the round right before the world expects him to go. Yea hes an injury risk but the reward is sky high. And at the very least you know he'll sell tickets and you get all kinds of hype right now when there's very little going on. Tua is the rare kind of athlete that people who don't even watch sports have heard of. I'm still expecting the modest .5u win but LETS. GO. GIANTS. TRADE. THAT. PICK!


Jeudy Draft Position

o12.5 +150 risk .9u
u11.5 +115 risk 1u

Another polish middle, opposite of the above. If he goes in any round besides 12 I win. Small volume but it feels too wide. I'm getting 65 cents here (and through the 0) as opposed to 'paying' 50 cents with Tua, plus there's way more variance with 12ish expected instead of 5.


I. Simmonds Draft Position

o6.5 +105 to win 2.9u
u6.5 +125 to win 3.1u


I have another arb with him at -115/+125 from the first post but this is completely separate and was a big combo of accounts and luckily for a lot more volume. I win .38u no matter what, a completely clean arb.


J. Love Draft Position

o18.5 -130 to win 1.5u
u19.5 +130 risk 1.5u

Clean free roll on him going at 18 exactly.



So that is it for the draft! Over 100 units in play (which is misleading obviously since they're mostly arbs) but still fun. Overall I really love where I'm at with this. Tons of free money arbs, some cheap middles with big potential and some scary polish middles to keep everyone on their toes.

It's nice being excited for a 'sporting event' again. I have no idea what to expect with them doing it remotely. I wouldn't be shocked if its a complete shitshow with these bozo coaches and GM's not having any idea how to work a computer, but then again I wouldn't be shocked if its really smooth either. This is a multi billion dollar league, it absolutely should be flawless but we've all seen this Roger Goodell led NFL in action before. I'm pretty much tapped out credit wise so I don't think I'll be adding anything but either way I'll of course only be grading things I posted. And by the way, these lines are still all over the place so check em out if you have any accounts.

As I mentioned in my last post, I lost 2 units betting on a 10k celebrity poker tourney with everything going to charity. I was basically taking anyone with big plus odds since there was no prize pool at all so I didn't think anyone would take it too seriously. Plus it was 6 minute levels with an ante to start so the structure was set up for it to play fast and loose. I was thinking that I was basically getting plus odds on coin flips with player vs player bets. Well, I ended up being the opposite of right and lost every bet (luckily they were teeny tiny). I watched some of it and everyone was taking it super seriously - lots of 3 betting pre flop and I saw TOM BRADY bet/tank fold a big turn bet. They honestly looked to be playing a little TOO good - I didn't really know what to make of it. It was pretty cool but doubt it'll happen again, especially since the site they were playing on is illegal in the U.S. (borderline surreal seeing one of the biggest celebrity's on the planet tweet out a link to an illegal offshore online poker site with a bit of a shady reputation for itself). The whole thing was pretty weird to be honest. I'll include that loss in an updated unit count after the draft bets are settled.

Should be some good blog action here in the next few days with the draft results, some possible later round bets if they become available and I get some credit back, plus the big political/VP blog that is overdue. See you guys later and as always, thanks for reading.

Betting On The NFL Draft

Some news politics-wise as Obama finally endorsed Biden (as did Liz Warren and Bernie.) There's been some movement in the VP market which now looks like a clear heads up race between Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar. I'm going to really get into that in depth on my next post but for today, let's get into the NFL Draft.

Being the New Englander I am, I admit that I don't follow college football all that closely. I find the whole thing to be a little creepy to be totally honest - lots of exploitation, hero worship of teenagers and theres always seedy old guys hanging around getting a little too into the whole thing. And don't even get me started on "draft analysis." Did you know that over the long term, literally not one NFL team has shown any ability to consistently draft better than any other team? For drafts from 1970 to 2013, the year to year correlation coefficient between a teams draft grade in one year and grade in the next year is just .07. (http://www.footballperspective.com/are-certain-teams-better-at-drafting-than-others/) So basically zero.

There's all kinds of studies on this done by guys way smarter than me, which you can start reading on here:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/ and follow the links. But the gist of it is basically; the 'draft market' does a good job of ranking players, IE players drafted in round 1 do better than players taken in round 2, who do better than round 3, etc. So think of it as an efficient market. But as is the case with efficient markets, no one GM or team has shown an ability to beat it long-term.

(There are some interesting draft caveats that I remember reading about. One is that the best value is high second round picks since (in my opinion) people irrationally over-value the difference between a first and second round pick. Also you're generally better off having more picks in total as opposed to a small number of high picks. I think that's why you see the Patriots trade down often.)

But like I said I am no draft expert. And luckily none of that matters really since I simply took a bunch of arbs and middles with a couple polish middles thrown in too. I do ride naked for small amounts on a couple bets too.

So in the absence of ado, here are my total positions on the upcoming NFL Draft (which will be held remotely.)

ROUND ONE PROPS

Georgia players drafted:

o1.5 -125 to win 1.5u
u1.5 +140 risk 1.5u

Clean free roll here. Risking 0 to win .23u. I opted for free rolls in lieu of even arbs since I plan on watching and want to have a side. I need some action goddamnit!


More PAC12 players over BIG12:

PAC12 +1 +180 risk .56u
BIG12 -.5 -280 to win .5u

This one is a weird little middle. Im basically betting that they'll draft the same amount and I push the +1 and win the .5. Its impossible to lose both but very possible to win one and push the other. The lines for total PAC12 and BIG12 players to go in the first round are very similar, right around 2.5-3. I would only do this with such a low total expected as it's more likely that they'll push as opposed to if something like 6-7 players were expected to be drafted. To really know if this is a +EV bet you'd have to know the value of each half point you're getting. IE how many 'cents' are you willing to pay to go from, say, +.5 to +1. I don't know this and I don't know of anyone who could possibly know and how they would, so I'm going on feel for this one. To be honest I don't love it but I also don't mind taking the small risk. It's for tiny volume anyway so we'll see how it turns out.


Clemson players vs Ohio St players:

Clemson: +.5 -140 to win 1.5u
Ohio St: -.5 +155 risk 1.5u

Another clean free roll. Risk 0 to .22u. This is what I did on most of these. They're small but they add up.


Defensive players drafted:

u15.5 -145 to win 1.5u
o15.5 +155 risk 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .16u.


Defensive Backs drafted:

u6.5 -175 to win 1.5u
o6.5 +200 risk 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .37u.


ACC players drafted:

u2.5 +195 risk 1.5u
o2.5 -190 to win 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .07u.


Offensive Lineman drafted:

o5.5 -275 to win 1.5u
u5.5 +300 risk 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .37u.


Alabama players vs LSU players:

Bama -.5 +125 risk 1u
LSU pk +230 risk .75u

Another fun one. I guess you'd call this a polish middle. I can't possibly win or lose both but I can lose one and push the other, which would be bad, or push one and win the other, which would be good. If they end up picking anything other than the same amount I win (either .25u or .52u). This again comes down to the value of half points with these, which again, I don't think anyone really knows (and I'm backed up by the market place with a lot of these lines really being all over the place.) But I'm betting that a half point in this market is worth less than the 255 cents I'm getting here. Getting +125 and +230 just seems way too wide to me. Both lines were a fair bit off from the other books I have too. Not arb-able since I would have just done that, but close.

Both schools are expected to have around 5.5 players drafted in round 1 which is fairly high and leaves more room for variance. This is the opposite of what I did with Clemson/Ohio St where I'm betting a little to win a lot that they'll pick the same amount. Here I'm betting a little more that they won't pick the same amount. And like the one above, I do not 'know' if this is +EV or not and it's possible there's something I don't know or understand about it, but personally I think its a good bet. I like this one more than the Clemson/Ohio St bet too, whatever that's worth.


LSU players drafted:

o5.5 -225 to win 1.5u
u5.5 +245 risk 1.5u.

Risking 0 to win .3u


Ohio St players drafted:

u2.5 -340 to win 1.5u
o2.5 +400 risk 1.5u.

Risking 0 to win .9u


Oklahoma players drafted:

u2 +145 risk 1.5
o2 -135 to win 1.5u.

Risking 0 to win .16u


First WR drafted

Jeudy +115 risk 1u
Lamb +120 risk .6u

First little real position here. From everything I can gather these two guys are head and shoulders better than the rest of the WR group and it would be a pretty big upset if neither of them go first. Jeudy is definitely the favorite. His average draft number that I see is 11ish and Lamb I see at 12.5. Both numbers were outliers - I don't want to say off-market since there really isn't a market to go off of here - but I was seeing a lot of evens and -110s on Jeudy, so this feels like a good bet. It's really a bet on Jeudy with a small Lamb hedge. Maybe I should have just stayed naked with Jeudy actually. I'm liking this bet less and less as I think about it now. I don't know! They can't all be home runs.


Justin Herbet draft position:

o5.5 -110 to win 1.5u
u5.5 +125 risk 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .23u.


I. Simmonds draft position:

u6.5 -115 to win 1.5u
o6.5 +124 risk 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .14u


Offensive players drafted:

u15.5 +230 risk 1u
o16.5 -140 to win 1u

Another whacky polish middle. If it's 15 or less I win .9u, if it's 17 or more I break even, and if it's exactly 16 I lose both bets for -2 units. Same logic as before. Im betting the cost of going from 15.5 to 16.5 isn't worth as many cents as I'm getting. Not exactly sure how I feel about this one. I have to be right about 70% of the time here to break even. One good thing about this blog is I can have a place to go over this after the fact and see not only if they won or not, but by how much. If I barely win this, if its 15 or 17 players say, I won't feel as good about it as if its like 12 or 20 players. It'll be a decent way to actually find out what these half point values are worth (if we live to be like 150).


QBs drafted:

o4.5 +380 risk .5u
u4 +120 risk .5u

An even crazier polish middle! I forgot how frisky things got! Betting that it'll be anything other than exactly 4 QB's. I know its super expected that exactly 4 will be taken but I think Im getting a good enough payoff to bet against that. 3 or less I win .1u, 5 or more I win 1.4u, and exactly 4 I lose 1 unit. If nothing else this is sure gonna be exciting to watch on draft day.


Clemson players drafted:

u1.5 +175 risk 1.5u
o1.5 -165 to win 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .16u.


Wide Receivers drafted:

u5.5 +210 risk 1.5u
o5.5 -200 to win 1.5u

Risking 0 to win .15u.


RIDING NAKED DRAFT SPOTS:

Jordan Love
o15.5 -120 to win .5u

Jerry Jeudy
o11.5 -150 to win .25u

Ceedee Lamb
o14.5 +150 risk .25

These are just the tiny nibbles I first put in a while ago. Theres one guy on the forums I like and he posted a few of these and these were the ones I could get at his prices or better.

So that's everything so far. I'll be checking here and there as it gets closer and closer and the lines move more and will probably have more bets. Overall I feel great about where I'm at. It's almost like I'm free rolling on my positions and polish middles with all the arbs/free rolls I got. I will have to get quite unlucky to lose any money on this. I won't win anything huge either but all in all I'm expecting to come away from this up a few units at the very least (there's 3.46 units up for free if I win every single free roll) and quite possibly as much as like 7 or 8.

There was a big celebrity online poker tourney last week which I nibbled on with .25u bets and literally lost every single one. I think it was like 2 or 3 units which I'll include in my next update for record keeping sake and briefly get into why I made the bets at all (and how wrong I was.) I'll also have another deep dive into politics, specifically the VP market. Quite a few changes there. And some reactions to other peoples reactions with the whole pandemic. Oh and something pretty shocking happened in the stock market the other day that not a whole lot of people are talking about. Check back soon, thanks for reading!

Stock Market Bets Results And More

As the world enters what feels like Halftime of this pandemic, today we'll do some record keeping,  settle the stock bets and get an updated total unit count on everything...

First off; the stock bets. Ive been going back and forth in my head trying to decide how I want to handle the deleted bets with my official record on here. On one hand, getting bets deleted and getting stiffed on winning bets does happen sometimes and Ive always considered it as sort of the cost of doing business. And like I said before, for my own official record keeping I've always only counted money actually collected, not money won. But on the other hand, it's a little bit busch league to post plays on here and then not have them count towards my record. Plus the 'goal' here (if there is one) is to develop and show my process and trading strategy which really is different than collecting. So going forward I'm going to grade and count everything, even things that get 'deleted' (which honestly very rarely ever happens anyway). So without further ado (by the way, have you ever in your whole life seen the word 'ado' without 'without further' in front of it? Ever? I don't think I have) here are the stock bets settled:

These are bets I put in on March 22 for where certain stocks would close on March 31st.

Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u W
u1825 +140 risk 2.25u L

CLOSED: 1970. This was a middle where the under looked better at the time so I hand one extra unit on under. Closed a lot higher than anyone thought and I ended up with a 1 unit loss here.

Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u W
o190 +105 risk 1.12u L

CLOSED: 173. Another middle but with small volume. With a little bit more risked on the under I come away here with .13u win.

Google
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u W
u1100 +120 risk 2.25u L

CLOSED: 1160. Another lopsided middle. .75u loss. In hindsight it probably would have been better to make some of these even and just take the free money.

Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u W
u345-116 risk 3.33u L

CLOSED: 375. This was the polish middle where I was betting it would be anything BUT between 345 and 350 but heavier on the under. Another smallish loss of 1.58u.

Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u W
u21.5 +110 risk 1.5u L

CLOSED: 27. This was one of the better bets, getting in on a middle and an arb with a small chance of winning both. It closed way higher than anyone would have thought (but is back to 23 currently) and I took the tiny .06 unit win.

Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u L

CLOSED: 96. First naked position and a loss for -1.12u. (So far literally every single loss was deleted the day after I put these in. I'll have to make sure to remind my agent of this.)

Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u W

CLOSED: 285. First 'deleted' bet that went against me as this was an easy win for plus .75u.

Facebook
u155 -110 to win .75u L

CLOSED: 161 for a loss of .8u (but currently at 154).

Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u W

CLOSED: 146. Easy win here for plus 1.5u (currently at 128 though which is odd. I would have thought this would keep climbing. I have been hearing about some zoom sessions getting hacked into which I bet they never really planned for).

Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u W

CLOSED: 113. Easy win of 1u here.

Ceasers Ent.
o5 +205 risk .75u W

CLOSED: 6.25. I rode naked here and really loved this bet. Too bad I couldn't have bet more on it but the limits here were obviously small. Nice 1.53u win.

Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u W

CLOSED: 68. Another naked position here and a nice little .78u pick up. I should have and could have bet a little more here. I am noticing my sizing could use some attention.

Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u W

CLOSED: 45. 1.03u win. Same as above, could have bet a little more on this and probably should have.

So thats it for the stock bets. As I said before, my actual results were better as most of the deletions were losses but I obviously lucked out in that regard. Final tally: +1.53u.

Looking back I think overall I did fine. I think I got a little unlucky with every single lop sided middle going against me. If I could change anything it would have been A) bet more. These positions were great and don't come around often so you really need to capitalize when they do. B) Pay closer attention to sizing. That's always been a small leak of mine. Sometimes you're hammering away and you're trying to get bets in and pull of arbs and middles and bet sizing can get away from you. So something to watch out for in the future.

Other bets that have settled:

Brady to be on Patriots in 2021: -150 risk 2.25u L -2.25u

Brady to wear #12 on Tampa Bay: YES to win .75u. W +.75u. Literally the easiest bet I think I've ever won.

Brady props total: -1.5u

Political bets so far: +12.98u

Stock bets: +1.53u

RUNNING TOTAL: +13.01u.

Not bad so far. Still have Biden to win the Wyoming caucus to win 4u and the Ohio primary to win 2.7 units. Both are basically winners as Biden is over 80% to win both on predicit. But with the virus both contests are suspended so I'll have to wait to grade. Assuming nothing crazy happens and they both win, I'll be right around plus 20 units with tons of equity in the presidential and VP markets. I could be looking at well over 30 units won in politics and a lot more if Klobuchar gets the VP.

I haven't seen anymore stock bets since I put all these in, unfortunately. I doubt they'll get put up again too, which sucks. I've been finding some really great middles and arbs with the lines they're putting up on some video game sims but I don't want to post them and draw too much attention since its a tiny market with lines all over the place and I dont want everyone jumping on them. And there's actually way more people reading this than I would have assumed (whats up to the guys checking from Estonia and Romania and Australia and all over the place by the way. Thanks for reading!) so that's a legit concern.

Other than that though really not much to update. Not a whole lot going on. It feels really eerie being out and about these days. It's so strange seeing absolutely no traffic and city centers being empty in the middle of a nice weekend. People walking and driving around with masks on. Its really odd. The only thing I'm really looking forward to is the weather getting nicer so I can take my motorcycle out on these deserted roads and break some land speed records :)

Not much to update on politics as honestly, not much has happened. The VP market is pretty static with of course, Kamala Harris still a couple cents better than Klobuchar. I've been checking on it daily and I still think theres something weird going on. Harris has never dropped below Klob, not once since March 18th. They're both moving plenty too. They just move together, up and down at roughly the same time (Harris moves always seem to come right after Klob moves), which makes no sense whatsoever. Whitmer's price has been about the same since my last update too.

Biden is still 80% to win the nomination with Cuomo in second at 7% and finally starting to fade back to earth a little. Trump is still the favorite to win overall at 48% and Biden is right behind at 43%. So again, not much movement and not a whole lot to dig into.

So thats about it, really. Sorry this isn't the most captivating update and I wish there were more going on trading wise but there just isn't. Once this starts to break, however long that takes, and things start to get back to normal I suspect there will be a flurry of action and price moves all over the place so that'll be exciting. Until then though I'll be scooping up these tiny little sim-arbs and checking in on predictit. I'll have an update at least once a week though while things are slow and when they pick up it'll be more frequent of course.

Until then, stay safe everyone. I may have an update this week on some virus-thoughts. Not about the actual virus because who the hell needs more of that. But I do have some thoughts about people's reaction in general and what it means for trading going forward and how we can use it to make better positions.

Oh last thing; if you need something new to watch check out 'The Scheme' on HBO. It's about this young kid who just started ranking high school basketball athletes online when he was like 10 years old and ends up being in the middle of a huge FBI bust looking for college athletes getting paid illegally. It's the closest I think Ive ever seen of someone capturing the mindset of a PPH hustler. Especially a few years ago when I was doing this full time and getting my own accounts. The frantic nature of it, the ability to pivot on a dime, working with and against the same people, getting people to flip to your side...its hard to explain but I just felt like I knew this kid. Check it out and if you have any experience doing this, see if you know what I mean.

Oh and I made it so anyone can comment even if you don't have a google account. So leave a comment if you want. Thats it for now, stay safe, stay sane and check back regularly!