As the world enters what feels like Halftime of this pandemic, today we'll do some record keeping, settle the stock bets and get an updated total unit count on everything...
First off; the stock bets. Ive been going back and forth in my head trying to decide how I want to handle the deleted bets with my official record on here. On one hand, getting bets deleted and getting stiffed on winning bets does happen sometimes and Ive always considered it as sort of the cost of doing business. And like I said before, for my own official record keeping I've always only counted money actually collected, not money won. But on the other hand, it's a little bit busch league to post plays on here and then not have them count towards my record. Plus the 'goal' here (if there is one) is to develop and show my process and trading strategy which really is different than collecting. So going forward I'm going to grade and count everything, even things that get 'deleted' (which honestly very rarely ever happens anyway). So without further ado (by the way, have you ever in your whole life seen the word 'ado' without 'without further' in front of it? Ever? I don't think I have) here are the stock bets settled:
These are bets I put in on March 22 for where certain stocks would close on March 31st.
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u W
u1825 +140 risk 2.25u L
CLOSED: 1970. This was a middle where the under looked better at the time so I hand one extra unit on under. Closed a lot higher than anyone thought and I ended up with a 1 unit loss here.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u W
o190 +105 risk 1.12u L
CLOSED: 173. Another middle but with small volume. With a little bit more risked on the under I come away here with .13u win.
Google
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u W
u1100 +120 risk 2.25u L
CLOSED: 1160. Another lopsided middle. .75u loss. In hindsight it probably would have been better to make some of these even and just take the free money.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u W
u345-116 risk 3.33u L
CLOSED: 375. This was the polish middle where I was betting it would be anything BUT between 345 and 350 but heavier on the under. Another smallish loss of 1.58u.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u W
u21.5 +110 risk 1.5u L
CLOSED: 27. This was one of the better bets, getting in on a middle and an arb with a small chance of winning both. It closed way higher than anyone would have thought (but is back to 23 currently) and I took the tiny .06 unit win.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u L
CLOSED: 96. First naked position and a loss for -1.12u. (So far literally every single loss was deleted the day after I put these in. I'll have to make sure to remind my agent of this.)
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u W
CLOSED: 285. First 'deleted' bet that went against me as this was an easy win for plus .75u.
Facebook
u155 -110 to win .75u L
CLOSED: 161 for a loss of .8u (but currently at 154).
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u W
CLOSED: 146. Easy win here for plus 1.5u (currently at 128 though which is odd. I would have thought this would keep climbing. I have been hearing about some zoom sessions getting hacked into which I bet they never really planned for).
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u W
CLOSED: 113. Easy win of 1u here.
Ceasers Ent.
o5 +205 risk .75u W
CLOSED: 6.25. I rode naked here and really loved this bet. Too bad I couldn't have bet more on it but the limits here were obviously small. Nice 1.53u win.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u W
CLOSED: 68. Another naked position here and a nice little .78u pick up. I should have and could have bet a little more here. I am noticing my sizing could use some attention.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u W
CLOSED: 45. 1.03u win. Same as above, could have bet a little more on this and probably should have.
So thats it for the stock bets. As I said before, my actual results were better as most of the deletions were losses but I obviously lucked out in that regard. Final tally: +1.53u.
Looking back I think overall I did fine. I think I got a little unlucky with every single lop sided middle going against me. If I could change anything it would have been A) bet more. These positions were great and don't come around often so you really need to capitalize when they do. B) Pay closer attention to sizing. That's always been a small leak of mine. Sometimes you're hammering away and you're trying to get bets in and pull of arbs and middles and bet sizing can get away from you. So something to watch out for in the future.
Other bets that have settled:
Brady to be on Patriots in 2021: -150 risk 2.25u L -2.25u
Brady to wear #12 on Tampa Bay: YES to win .75u. W +.75u. Literally the easiest bet I think I've ever won.
Brady props total: -1.5u
Political bets so far: +12.98u
Stock bets: +1.53u
RUNNING TOTAL: +13.01u.
Not bad so far. Still have Biden to win the Wyoming caucus to win 4u and the Ohio primary to win 2.7 units. Both are basically winners as Biden is over 80% to win both on predicit. But with the virus both contests are suspended so I'll have to wait to grade. Assuming nothing crazy happens and they both win, I'll be right around plus 20 units with tons of equity in the presidential and VP markets. I could be looking at well over 30 units won in politics and a lot more if Klobuchar gets the VP.
I haven't seen anymore stock bets since I put all these in, unfortunately. I doubt they'll get put up again too, which sucks. I've been finding some really great middles and arbs with the lines they're putting up on some video game sims but I don't want to post them and draw too much attention since its a tiny market with lines all over the place and I dont want everyone jumping on them. And there's actually way more people reading this than I would have assumed (whats up to the guys checking from Estonia and Romania and Australia and all over the place by the way. Thanks for reading!) so that's a legit concern.
Other than that though really not much to update. Not a whole lot going on. It feels really eerie being out and about these days. It's so strange seeing absolutely no traffic and city centers being empty in the middle of a nice weekend. People walking and driving around with masks on. Its really odd. The only thing I'm really looking forward to is the weather getting nicer so I can take my motorcycle out on these deserted roads and break some land speed records :)
Not much to update on politics as honestly, not much has happened. The VP market is pretty static with of course, Kamala Harris still a couple cents better than Klobuchar. I've been checking on it daily and I still think theres something weird going on. Harris has never dropped below Klob, not once since March 18th. They're both moving plenty too. They just move together, up and down at roughly the same time (Harris moves always seem to come right after Klob moves), which makes no sense whatsoever. Whitmer's price has been about the same since my last update too.
Biden is still 80% to win the nomination with Cuomo in second at 7% and finally starting to fade back to earth a little. Trump is still the favorite to win overall at 48% and Biden is right behind at 43%. So again, not much movement and not a whole lot to dig into.
So thats about it, really. Sorry this isn't the most captivating update and I wish there were more going on trading wise but there just isn't. Once this starts to break, however long that takes, and things start to get back to normal I suspect there will be a flurry of action and price moves all over the place so that'll be exciting. Until then though I'll be scooping up these tiny little sim-arbs and checking in on predictit. I'll have an update at least once a week though while things are slow and when they pick up it'll be more frequent of course.
Until then, stay safe everyone. I may have an update this week on some virus-thoughts. Not about the actual virus because who the hell needs more of that. But I do have some thoughts about people's reaction in general and what it means for trading going forward and how we can use it to make better positions.
Oh last thing; if you need something new to watch check out 'The Scheme' on HBO. It's about this young kid who just started ranking high school basketball athletes online when he was like 10 years old and ends up being in the middle of a huge FBI bust looking for college athletes getting paid illegally. It's the closest I think Ive ever seen of someone capturing the mindset of a PPH hustler. Especially a few years ago when I was doing this full time and getting my own accounts. The frantic nature of it, the ability to pivot on a dime, working with and against the same people, getting people to flip to your side...its hard to explain but I just felt like I knew this kid. Check it out and if you have any experience doing this, see if you know what I mean.
Oh and I made it so anyone can comment even if you don't have a google account. So leave a comment if you want. Thats it for now, stay safe, stay sane and check back regularly!
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