NFL Draft Part 2

I have a big political round-up blog coming but first I want to finish off everything I have for the draft tonight. I honestly cannot believe how many arbs and middles were available (and still are). I actually ran out of credit on some of my accounts, between the draft and political bets still pending. I can't believe I haven't done this before - I'm not sure if the books are putting up way more lines this year since there are no other sports on or if I just somehow completely missed this in the past. Either way, I have a lot in action tonight and I'm really liking my positions.

This will be like the last post, lots of bets and little explanations. It's probably pretty dry to some so if it aint your thing, check back soon for the big politics/VP market blog.


2020 NFL DRAFT BETS, PART 2

(First round props)

Clemson vs Oklahoma players

Clemson +.5 -190 to win 1.5u
Oklahoma pk +155 risk 1.5u

This line in particular has been all over is the place and actually still is. Here I'm paying a little bit for a decent payoff if they take the same amount. Both schools are expected to have about 2 each go in round 1 so I like it. But then again, I also have...

Clemson pk -180 to win 1u
Oklahoma pk +195 risk 1u

I put these in about a week apart. It's crazy that I got Clemson +.5 at -190 and Clemson pk at -180 (and OK pk at +195!) So looks like a lot of line movement - makes sense, I'd bet there's more money in action on this draft than ever before.


Big 10 Players

o5 -165 to win 1.5u
u5.5 +145 to win 1.45u

Half-middle here, more exposed on the over which was way off-market. The under 5.5 was too so I like these two together.


Clemson Players

o1.5 -230 to win 1.5u
u1.5 +300 risk 1.25u

Look how juicy that arb is. +300 and -230 available at the same exact time. A free .25u or .3u, either way. Man if this were a few years ago and I had three times the amount of accounts I do now, this would have been wild (well, as wild as arbing and middling can be).


Linebackers

o3.5 +120 risk 1.45u
u3.5 +105 risk 1.5u

I went with 1.45u and smaller on some of these to lock up money either way. Here I either win .05u or .25u.


ACC Players

o2.5 -305 to win 1.5u
u2.5 +320 risk 1.45u

Same thing as above. Gonna fly through some of the simple arbs.


Auburn Players

o1.5 +280 risk 1.4u
u1.5 -240 to win 1.5


SEC Players

u15.5 -115 to win 1.5u
o15.5 +125 risk 1.4u


A. Thomas draft position

u10.5 -105 to win 1.1u
o10.5 +120 risk 1.1u


Okudah Draft Position

o4.5 +120 risk 1.5u
u4.5 +100 risk 1.65u


Chaison Draft Position

o16.5 -150 to win 1.5u
u16.5 +160 risk 1.45u


Pac 12 Players

o2.5 +155 risk .5u
u2.5 -150 to win .5u (ran out of credit)


Tua Draft Position

u4.5 +220 risk 1u
o3.5 -270 to win 1.5u

This one is interesting. The main bet is over 3.5 but I didn't love being naked for 1.5u at -270. I didn't hate it and honestly would have been ok leaving it, but u4.5 at +220 was too juicy to pass up. So I win a little bit if its o3.5, lose 2ish units if its u3.5, but win both bets (3.7u) if it's exactly 4. Paying 50 cents to middle an entire pick seemed too cheap to me, especially when he's expected to go no lower than 5.

The general consensus is that he's going to Miami at 5, and the Chargers at 6 if hes there. The Giants are at 4 and have Daniel Jones and haven't seemed all that interested in taking Tua, BUT there are some rumors that they might trade out of the pick (I heard to the Jags today). I could totally see some bumfuck team moving in to swoop up Tua in the round right before the world expects him to go. Yea hes an injury risk but the reward is sky high. And at the very least you know he'll sell tickets and you get all kinds of hype right now when there's very little going on. Tua is the rare kind of athlete that people who don't even watch sports have heard of. I'm still expecting the modest .5u win but LETS. GO. GIANTS. TRADE. THAT. PICK!


Jeudy Draft Position

o12.5 +150 risk .9u
u11.5 +115 risk 1u

Another polish middle, opposite of the above. If he goes in any round besides 12 I win. Small volume but it feels too wide. I'm getting 65 cents here (and through the 0) as opposed to 'paying' 50 cents with Tua, plus there's way more variance with 12ish expected instead of 5.


I. Simmonds Draft Position

o6.5 +105 to win 2.9u
u6.5 +125 to win 3.1u


I have another arb with him at -115/+125 from the first post but this is completely separate and was a big combo of accounts and luckily for a lot more volume. I win .38u no matter what, a completely clean arb.


J. Love Draft Position

o18.5 -130 to win 1.5u
u19.5 +130 risk 1.5u

Clean free roll on him going at 18 exactly.



So that is it for the draft! Over 100 units in play (which is misleading obviously since they're mostly arbs) but still fun. Overall I really love where I'm at with this. Tons of free money arbs, some cheap middles with big potential and some scary polish middles to keep everyone on their toes.

It's nice being excited for a 'sporting event' again. I have no idea what to expect with them doing it remotely. I wouldn't be shocked if its a complete shitshow with these bozo coaches and GM's not having any idea how to work a computer, but then again I wouldn't be shocked if its really smooth either. This is a multi billion dollar league, it absolutely should be flawless but we've all seen this Roger Goodell led NFL in action before. I'm pretty much tapped out credit wise so I don't think I'll be adding anything but either way I'll of course only be grading things I posted. And by the way, these lines are still all over the place so check em out if you have any accounts.

As I mentioned in my last post, I lost 2 units betting on a 10k celebrity poker tourney with everything going to charity. I was basically taking anyone with big plus odds since there was no prize pool at all so I didn't think anyone would take it too seriously. Plus it was 6 minute levels with an ante to start so the structure was set up for it to play fast and loose. I was thinking that I was basically getting plus odds on coin flips with player vs player bets. Well, I ended up being the opposite of right and lost every bet (luckily they were teeny tiny). I watched some of it and everyone was taking it super seriously - lots of 3 betting pre flop and I saw TOM BRADY bet/tank fold a big turn bet. They honestly looked to be playing a little TOO good - I didn't really know what to make of it. It was pretty cool but doubt it'll happen again, especially since the site they were playing on is illegal in the U.S. (borderline surreal seeing one of the biggest celebrity's on the planet tweet out a link to an illegal offshore online poker site with a bit of a shady reputation for itself). The whole thing was pretty weird to be honest. I'll include that loss in an updated unit count after the draft bets are settled.

Should be some good blog action here in the next few days with the draft results, some possible later round bets if they become available and I get some credit back, plus the big political/VP blog that is overdue. See you guys later and as always, thanks for reading.