Quick little update today - want to post my final bets for tomorrows hot dog eating contest. The odds for total hot dogs eaten are all over the place so you may be able to find these prices and/or at least get some arbs in.
Here's what we have.
Joey Chestnut to win overall: risk 6.4u to win .75 (-850)
Sudo NOT to win women's group: risk .5u to win 4u (+800) {this is the ending position of a half-scalp/arb. I got Yes at -500 and No at +600}
Total dogs for women: over 37.5 risk 1u to win 1.1 (+110). Also under 40.5 risk .67u to win 1.05 (+155)
Total dogs for men: over 72.5 risk 1u to win 1.25 (+125). Also under 72.5 risk 1u to win 1.45 (+145) and over 73.5 risk 1.1u to win 1.25 (+110).
Good in really good on everything, especially the mens total. I find that with big, one off stuff with lots of public interest, the best way to play it is to look for overs and yes's as soon as the bets come out. The public almost always bets on overs and yes's so generally everything moves that way. Then the day before (or even better, the day of) you can buy back some or all of you position on unders and no's. When I bet this 3 months ago I got over 72.5 at +125 and now that price is as high as -160. And I could take free money on Jaws to win overall with No at +900.
So my final position is Chestnut to win, nibble on Sudo not to win, over 73.5 dogs for men with a nice clean arb thrown in and a sweet little 38 through 40 middle for the women but winning at least a little bit no matter what. The only big exposure here is Jaws not winning but I think that has just about zero chance of happening. I was thinking of piling even more on at -1300 but decided against it. I'll try to check tomorrow right before it starts, I bet the odds will be even higher for yes's and overs, but I do not plan on being inside too much.
Have a good 4th everyone, talk soon!
