Week 2 Recap: The Craziest Day Of Betting In My Life

I have been bangin away at this +EV betting thing for about 15 years now. Nearly 2 full decades. And I shit you not, I had one of the most perplexing, bizarre, swingy, heart attack inducing days of my betting life this past Sunday. Still, two full days later, I'm not entirely sure what even happened, exactly. Let me try to explain.

If you're a long time regular reader here you might know this, but my main NFL betting strategy for the past 3 or so years has been mainly centered around teasers (of the Wong variety, mostly). I'm able to get 2 teamers at -110 and 3 teamers at +170, both of which are profitable and nearly impossible to find these days. (Draft Kings charges -135 for 2 teamers. -135! Way back in the day I got these at +105!) In order to wring out as much value as possible from these teasers, I way over-bet them and hedge/middle each leg. An important wrinkle here is that each leg in each teaser has to be playing at a different time slot (something that took me way too long to figure out). I need each leg to be decided before the next one starts (if you're a smarty pants you might be a step ahead of me here). 

My big teaser teams in the 1:00 slate Sunday were (in order of exposure) TB -2.5, BAL -2.5, PHI -1.5, and ATL +7.5. Now, right off the bat you can see...not great. Only one of those bets (PHI) won. However, it wasn't as bad as it looks because PHI won but didn't cover which means a lot of my TEN hedges won.

I went pretty bonkers on TB -2.5 and to a slightly lesser extent BAL -2.5. They were both perfect teaser candidates. -8.5 with Pinnacle dealing heavy -9s on both, essentially saying 'we do not want to take teasers on either of these games'. A big -8.5 to -2.5 teaser is typically one of my favorite legs. You can get the opponent money line at something like +380 if you try really hard, so that's a -255/+380 scalp basically. You can also middle with opponent +3.5 for big odds, on top of +7.5 usually for plus odds too. The only real risk is the teaser leg winning by 1 or 2, but you can cover that with getting +2.5 as a pure scalp, or +3.5 or better as a middle.

Anyway, I did all of the above for my CLE hedges/middles. My PPH has a massive max bet and credit limit, and I've really been trying to up my volume lately in everything. The more volume the better. So I bet pretty much as much as I could on TB -2.5 and hedged/middled out of most of it. I got everything from CLE ML at +380ish, +2.5, +3.5, +6.5, +7.5, +8.5. If this game ended with TB winning by 8 or less, it would have been outstanding for me. TB winning by exactly 3? Massive. 

So imagine how it felt to be following along with this game with 2 minutes left. TB is down by 4 but driving with the ball on the CLE 30-something. They have to score a TD and it would put them up by exactly 3. And the game gets delayed for lightning! For over a fucking hour!! More importantly, not only is it quite the sweat, but I don't know if the next legs in my teasers are live or not!! And the next games are starting!! Remember, I way over-bet these teasers. I need to hedge/middle out of each leg, which means I need to know if each teaser is live or not before the next leg starts! 

So I'm frantically refreshing X trying to get an update, meanwhile I have no idea if I have action on my JAX +8.5 and LAC -1.5 teaser legs, which, again, I over-bet. So I'm watching along in my battle station, sort of half hedging on LV and DEN. Luckily for me, both games were close into halftime.

And then around the 3rd Quarter of the 4:00 games, (I think? it was all a blur) TB/CLE starts up again out of nowhere. And of course TB just cannot get in the endzone. I did have the wherewithal to fire on CLE ML +112 during the delay as a sort of insurance but in hindsight, I should have bet quite a lot more.

Now that TB lost, I realize my teasers are mostly all dead and now I'm exposed on LV and DEN. I bet a little bit on the other side and luckily both games ended up going in my (now) favor, so that worked out I suppose. But holy shit! What a sweat! I'm still not sure if I got lucky or unlucky, to be perfectly honest. A bit of both I suppose. 

To add to the nuttiness of it all, the BAL/NO game almost gave me a heart attack, too. Like I mentioned earlier, I teased BAL down to -2.5 and hedged with a good amount of NO moneyline. So the only thing that could not happen in this game is BAL winning by 1 or 2. In the middle of all of this other stuff, NO scores a TD to go down by exactly 2 to BAL late in the game. They go for 2 and fucking MISS IT (or so it showed on the play by play). Now I'm really sweating. I fire a small NO +2.5/BAL ML parlay as an 'in case of emergency insurance play', and sure enough, there was a flag on the play and NO goes for again and this time gets in, tying the game up. Just insanity all around. This is why I used to not even watch the games at all. (Now that I have access to NoVig, I am able to hedge with opponent +2.5 profitably instead of just betting them on the moneyline. I still do bet the ML but not as much for this exact reason).

I had a nice little NYJ +3.5, GB ML middle which binked. Draft Kings put up an arb to the market all week on the Jets +3.5 and I did a cute little scalp and ML middle.

The SNF game landed perfect with KC winning by 3. Normally that would have been a windfall for me, but I was so shell shocked from earlier in the day that I didn't get much down on it at all.

Honestly, going to bed Sunday night I had no idea how the day went. I had no idea if I got crushed or not, and if so, how bad it was. Plus I had no one I could remotely tell all this to, and I had to kind of pretend none of it was happening at all. My wife is supportive of this and does her best to give me a lot of 'alone computer time' on Sundays, but she still (somehow) doesn't even know what a parlay is, never mind a teaser. The specifics of betting are not something we talk about and any time I find myself trying to explain something to her, I end up feeling like that Charlie from Always Sunny in Philadelphia meme.

'OK so a teaser is a parlay where you get to move the spread 6 points in your favor. But all the legs have to win. I over-bet the teasers and then hedge/middle out of each leg. I need each leg to be over before the next one starts and guess WHAT?! The TB game is in lightning delay! Yes, lightning. No, it almost never happens. Now I don't know if the teasers are live or not and the afternoon games are STARTING!'

*the blankest stare you have ever seen in your life* 'I wish I understood this stuff better. Dinner is almost ready, are you going to be done soon?'

The whole day felt surreal, honestly. A little bit like watching that god awful movie 'Uncut Gems' but like it was only happening in my head.

Doing my numbers this morning felt like my heart was in my chest. And guess what? I made about 6 units for the week. So not bad at all, I guess, but it probably took like 3 days off of my life.

Really weird start to the NFL season. My volume is way up and using an exchange is quite different, plus I do have a good amount of accounts now. I am ramping things back up, sort of without me realizing almost? So far, teasers have gotten demolished yet I'm still up for the season which is a really good sign. Getting my hedges/middles in at NoVig has been a massively good change. That means I've gotten crushed on my PPH too, which is kind of a good thing to happen this early. Now I know I'll almost certainly have this account all year, at least.

Looking ahead, I did have a couple teasers sneak through with LAR -1.5 as the last leg which won last night. I added some more, coupled with GB -1.5 and my favorite look ahead teaser leg of the upcoming week: SF -2.5. TB and DEN look good too but we'll see how things develop.

That's it for today, check back soon as I am big time in sports betting mode right now.

NFL Week 1 Betting Recap: Bit Of A Nightmare

 Week 1 is officially in the books and I had the kind of week that literally gives me nightmares. Now, I only lost 1 unit on the week, so for all intents and purposes it was a blip. A nothing burger of a week. What could possibly be nightmarish about that? Let me explain.

I have 6 different, active sports betting accounts right now. A mix of my PPH, a few legal books, NoVig (an exchange) and a 'Pinnacle clone' we'll call it. Money is constantly moving in and out of each book/account, so it's hard to tell how I'm doing in any given week. I usually have a general feel of how things are going but I never really know until Monday (today) when I do my accounting for the prior week.

Now, starting this week off we had the SEA/PATS game. I talked about it on here but I was able to get SEA -2.5 -115 which was an absolute steal, plus some SEA +3.5 in a teaser. I hedged with a lot of PATS +2.5 but also a little bit of +3 and +3.5. That game landed absolutely perfectly with SEA winning by 3. Couldn't have asked for a better start.

The rest of the week was fine, nothing earth shattering. I had JAX-2.5 as the next leg in all of my teasers and hedged that mostly with CLE +8.5, +3.5, and some ML. Most of those bets were odds boost and free bets so I didn't have much CLE exposure at all. It would have been perfect if the JAX-2.5, CLE +8.5 middle hit but I didn't need it to. Or so I thought, I guess? JAX blows them out and we move on.

I then had GB +7.5 as the next leg in just about every teaser, which of course got blown out. However, I hedged out of it enough to show a profit no matter what with MIN -7.5, -8.5, and a lot of MIN ML at -125 which DK left up for a bit too long yesterday right before kickoff (NoVig was at -130/+127). If that game ended with MIN winning but GB still covering +7.5, it would have been massive, but still, it was arbed.

The only other big positions I had were PIT teased down to -.5, or an effective ML, and arbed out of that with ATL ML and a little piece of ATL +6.5. Basically free rolled on the middle. PIT won by 7, which stunk. Normally I would have found a way to get that extra point for the +7.5. But whatever, no real damage done.

I even found a new exploit on my PPH. He isn't charging enough to buy through a certain, key point. You can probably guess. So I was able to get a good 6 cent arb with big volume on two games too.

On all the random non NFL stuff I made a few units.

So I was going to bed last night thinking I had a really good week. Like, at least 10 units, maybe more. And I do my accounting this morning, all excited, and find out I lost a unit. And I swear to god, I just cannot figure out how. I don't know what happened! This is why it was a nightmare week. I wasn't kidding when I say that I literally have nightmares like this. That I forget to put in some massive hedge or double bet a teaser or something else stupid. Like there is some dumb, critical error in my sheets or something and I way over or under hedge or forget to put something in. It is a little tougher now with making orders on NoVig. It's possible I got something matched or didn't and recorded it wrong. I don't fucking know! I just have no idea how I was able to bink the SEA game, win money on non NFL straights, do all my teasers with perfect hedges, plus the arbs, PLUS the free bets and odds boosts, and come away DOWN a unit! This is quite literally the stuff of nightmares for me. Like I'm making a mistake with the teaser math or something? But I know its not the case, I double checked everything this morning. The only thing I can think of is that maybe, I guess, I was just absolutely free rolling on one of the teaser middles hitting? If CLE, ATL or MIN kept anything close, it would have been a huge week. I did hedge a lot of MIN on the ML instead of -7.5, but not all of it.

Even though it was a 'bad' week, big picture wise I'm still beyond excited for this NFL season. I lost a little bit on the PPH which, honestly, is a good thing. If GB covered, it would have been a massive win for me on there, right out of the gate on week 1. And with this new exploit I found, it might have been a blessing in disguise to not hit this guy for 5 figures literally week 1. As I've said before, I cannot believe he still lets me on there.

And I guess some growing pains are to be expected week 1 with an exchange. I do need to change a little bit of my set up to account for orders getting matched as the day goes on.

But, man. What a disappointing morning. I honestly thought I was forgetting an account or something. Still, as I write this, I'm befuddled. Embarrassing to even admit this.

Looking ahead, I have DEN +8.5 in a couple big teasers, plus some DEN +3.5 -145. I'll be hedging with KC -8.5 (I got some at +310) and I'm able to get KC -3.5 at +150ish.

TB looks like a great teaser leg right now. -8.5 at home vs CLE with a nice low total. I'd bet that goes towards 9 and not the other way around. I'll be watching for ATL to hit +1.5 on my PPH, and I'll be watching the LAC and BAL lines, too. 

That's all for today. 2026 NFL week 1 in the books! A bizarre start to the year! Check back soon!

And So It Begins. 2026 NFL Season Is Upon Us, Plus, First Semi-Wong Of The Year

 I guess I should apologize for my last post. I have determined that, yes, I am/was a little too online. I spent the long weekend on the somewhat mythical Block Island surrounded by family, friends and, believe it or not, a postcard-looking farm and farm animals, and it was just what I needed. A good unplugging, complete with quite possibly the best home cooked lobsters I have ever had in my life. It was sorely needed.

I stand by what I said, I still think we are absolutely coming apart at the seams, but I also think it probably always feels like this, in some way or another. I still cannot wrap my mind around the Clancy trial. I cannot believe it was one guy holding up an acquittal and not the other way around. The women taking selfies with her lawyer like he was a Real Housewife and showing up to her trial with their children to show support for the triple child murderer. It just fucking baffles me. I don't know who has had it worse PR-wise in the last half decade: black people, indian people, women, or the world of 'HiGhEr EdUcAtIoN.' But I digress. 

Today the 2026 NFL season officially kicks off. NFL is still King in the world of sports betting, especially for me. My long time, last man standing PPH book is back for another year of getting abused on teasers and (hopefully) his bizarre line moves. He has one up already on the very first game of the year. Right now I just got SEA -2.5 -115(!) for big volume where I'm able to get PATS +2.5 at +130 and even slightly better on NoVig. 

By the way, how about NoVig going to percents instead of American odds? I can't even begin to tell you how much I hate this. Not even an option to show American odds! Not yet at least. My volume on there has gone way down as a result. Obviously I can use an odds convertor an I am slowly learning how to read the percents, but man oh man. I didn't realize how well I understood American odds, apparently. Making orders and reading the order book is so much harder now. It's far from impossible, of course, but it is frustrating. My brain just cannot read the percents like American odds.

Anyway, percentage odds notwithstanding, I am especially excited for NFL this year. I feel like I am fully armed to really take advantage of the landscape. Besides my aforementioned PPH book that I cannot believe I still have access to, I also still have access to Draft Kings, Fan Duel, MGM, plus NoVig. I have pretty beefy balances at each one, too. My promos are drying up max bet wise, but they still come pretty much every day. I feel like a military general with high confidence in my various armies' quantity and also quality. I had some really lean years from 2021 to about 2023 to the point where I almost hung it up completely. I was still beating my head against the wall trying to model and I just could not give up trying to beat props. Since 2024, however, I mostly gave up on props and modeling and shifted heavily towards teasers and off-market straights with big middles and arbs and half-arbs. WAY more precise than ever. I had always done those things, but really learning the math behind teasers and getting on board with the legal books of the world pushed me up a level. Now with the addition of NoVig (mostly making), I feel like this could be a banner year for me. I'm already up more than twice the amount I made in my lean covid years, and NFL hasn't even started yet. Who knows, maybe I'll go full time again! (Just kidding. But it is starting to have that feel for me again which I love). 

I have my very first 'semi Wong' teaser of the year, too. I have SEA +3.5, JAX-2.5, GB +7.5 at +170 odds. Don't follow me on this bet though unless you're able to get it exactly the same as me or better (which you won't be able to). I can only get SEA +3.5 because my PPH put up SEA -2.5, and +170 for three teamers is nearly impossible to find these days. 

So I have quite the position for tonight. I have SEA at -2.5 -115 for a massive amount, plus the SEA +3.5 teaser. Then I was able to get the PATS buy back at absurd numbers, using all kinds of promos and odds boosts. I got $1k in free bets from a recent DK deposit bonus that I used on +3 and a little +3.5. I got a 20% odds boost from MGM which got me PATS +3 +127. I even got some PATS ML at +250 with a couple odds boosts but for a small amount. And the bulk of my buy back was PATS +2.5 at +131 on NoVig which is right about break even according to Pinnacle (although it looks like a good amount of SEA money is coming in as I type this). So I have money locked up no matter what happens but way more exposed to SEA, plus a nice big fat middle if it's a 3 point game either way. A great way to start 2026 NFL!

That's about it for me today. You can expect a lot more action from me on here for the rest of the year. I'll have my weekly recaps plus my longer form ramblings when the mood strikes me. I still have a BTC post to make but it's a bit less exciting now. Still need to update some things. I may do another stonks update as well. Feel free to leave a comment, thanks for reading and (Eric the midget voice) *bye for now!*

Does Anyone Else Feel Like They're Floating Into Outer Space?

 I can't quite pinpoint the exact feeling, but something close to 'floating and disappearing into thin air' feels close. It's similar to how I felt during the worst of the covid hysteria; like I truly do not know my fellow countrymen. At all. Like I'm the alien.

First it was the Jason Arday scandal. Then the armies of the worst and most predictable people imaginable lining up to absolutely nuke their reputations to defend him. Then he killed himself and we all found out he was a father, somehow, and it took a different turn. I even had a whole blog post ready to go: 'You Wouldn't Believe The Jason Arday Story If It Were In A Dystopian Science Fiction Novel.' Then the outright attacks on Nathan Confas, the man who outed Arday in the first place. Again, if you read that entire saga in a book by George Orwell, you would honestly think that it was too outlandish, even for a fiction book.

Then, of course, the Lindsay Clancy story. Truly, for the life of me, I cannot wrap my head around the support she is receiving, plus the fact that she's probably not even going to be convicted of murder. She purposefully sent her husband on a long errand, strangled her three tiny children to death, one by one, one of them had their fucking eyeballs pop out. Can you fucking imagine the confusion and pure terror that were those childrens' last moments?? And women are treating her like a celebrity! Taking selfies with her lawyer! I'm sure you've seen it all online. Imagine a man murdered his three kids and thousands of men show up to the court house to show support for him! And ask yourself this question: do you know the kids names? I wouldn't if I hadn't looked it up. Nobody seems to give a fuck about them. It is so dark, I'm finding it hard to write about. 

By the way, I am far from the first person to make this point, but the idea of seriously restricting women's rights in America is inching its way into the mainstream. If it becomes 'law' that this woman was not in charge of her own actions due to 'post-partum hormones' or whatever, then we need to have a few more conversations. That's for another day I suppose. But I cannot believe that women don't seem to understand the implications of this trial.

Then you have that 32 year old new mom getting murdered in NY by an obese should-have-been-an-Aztez-human-sacrifice 'woman', and the online left gleefully celebrating because the recently married and new mom had some mid level job at Bank of America. The 'believe all women' crowd celebrating a newly married, new mom getting knifed to death by an overstuffed tortilla who belongs in a nuthouse on the other side of the planet, all because she worked for a bank. Worked for a bank!! (It's actually because she was White and attractive. Don't believe me? If it were the same exact story but the killer was a White man and the victim was a black woman who also worked at BOFA, what do you think the lefts' reaction would have been? Be honest.)

And I keep thinking, am I just too online? If it weren't for the internet, I probably wouldn't know about any of these things. At least not in detail. But is the internet a funhouse mirror, distorting truth? Or a rock to lift up, exposing reality? (You might be able to tell from my metaphors that I spent a lot of time as a kid lifting up rocks looking for lizards and things).

I planned on writing about these stories but there's more than enough of that to go around.

What I come back to though is the overall feeling. Again, it's like I'm drifting into space. Like I don't know anything or anyone anymore. Nothing matters, everything is fake, everyone is awful and the future is bleak.

And I just hate this shit. I wanted to make a post RANTING about No Vig changing from American odds to 'percentages' and that being the way of the future, apparently. I want to talk about arbs and trading and the upcoming football season. I still haven't talked about my big boy BTC purchases.

I will get to all that but it feels like nonsense, right now at least. Like I just want to take my family and move into the woods where we never see another human being again. 

"When you just want to be left alone, you become a libertarian. When you realize they'll never leave you alone, you become something else."

Sorry for the absolute downer of a post. A few of these lately. I can only be honest and this is how I feel right now.