I guess I should apologize for my last post. I have determined that, yes, I am/was a little too online. I spent the long weekend on the somewhat mythical Block Island surrounded by family, friends and, believe it or not, a postcard-looking farm and farm animals, and it was just what I needed. A good unplugging, complete with quite possibly the best home cooked lobsters I have ever had in my life. It was sorely needed.
I stand by what I said, I still think we are absolutely coming apart at the seams, but I also think it probably always feels like this, in some way or another. I still cannot wrap my mind around the Clancy trial. I cannot believe it was one guy holding up an acquittal and not the other way around. The women taking selfies with her lawyer like he was a Real Housewife and showing up to her trial with their children to show support for the triple child murderer. It just fucking baffles me. I don't know who has had it worse PR-wise in the last half decade: black people, indian people, women, or the world of 'HiGhEr EdUcAtIoN.' But I digress.
Today the 2026 NFL season officially kicks off. NFL is still King in the world of sports betting, especially for me. My long time, last man standing PPH book is back for another year of getting abused on teasers and (hopefully) his bizarre line moves. He has one up already on the very first game of the year. Right now I just got SEA -2.5 -115(!) for big volume where I'm able to get PATS +2.5 at +130 and even slightly better on NoVig.
By the way, how about NoVig going to percents instead of American odds? I can't even begin to tell you how much I hate this. Not even an option to show American odds! Not yet at least. My volume on there has gone way down as a result. Obviously I can use an odds convertor an I am slowly learning how to read the percents, but man oh man. I didn't realize how well I understood American odds, apparently. Making orders and reading the order book is so much harder now. It's far from impossible, of course, but it is frustrating. My brain just cannot read the percents like American odds.
Anyway, percentage odds notwithstanding, I am especially excited for NFL this year. I feel like I am fully armed to really take advantage of the landscape. Besides my aforementioned PPH book that I cannot believe I still have access to, I also still have access to Draft Kings, Fan Duel, MGM, plus NoVig. I have pretty beefy balances at each one, too. My promos are drying up max bet wise, but they still come pretty much every day. I feel like a military general with high confidence in my various armies' quantity and also quality. I had some really lean years from 2021 to about 2023 to the point where I almost hung it up completely. I was still beating my head against the wall trying to model and I just could not give up trying to beat props. Since 2024, however, I mostly gave up on props and modeling and shifted heavily towards teasers and off-market straights with big middles and arbs and half-arbs. WAY more precise than ever. I had always done those things, but really learning the math behind teasers and getting on board with the legal books of the world pushed me up a level. Now with the addition of NoVig (mostly making), I feel like this could be a banner year for me. I'm already up more than twice the amount I made in my lean covid years, and NFL hasn't even started yet. Who knows, maybe I'll go full time again! (Just kidding. But it is starting to have that feel for me again which I love).
I have my very first 'semi Wong' teaser of the year, too. I have SEA +3.5, JAX-2.5, GB +7.5 at +170 odds. Don't follow me on this bet though unless you're able to get it exactly the same as me or better (which you won't be able to). I can only get SEA +3.5 because my PPH put up SEA -2.5, and +170 for three teamers is nearly impossible to find these days.
So I have quite the position for tonight. I have SEA at -2.5 -115 for a massive amount, plus the SEA +3.5 teaser. Then I was able to get the PATS buy back at absurd numbers, using all kinds of promos and odds boosts. I got $1k in free bets from a recent DK deposit bonus that I used on +3 and a little +3.5. I got a 20% odds boost from MGM which got me PATS +3 +127. I even got some PATS ML at +250 with a couple odds boosts but for a small amount. And the bulk of my buy back was PATS +2.5 at +131 on NoVig which is right about break even according to Pinnacle (although it looks like a good amount of SEA money is coming in as I type this). So I have money locked up no matter what happens but way more exposed to SEA, plus a nice big fat middle if it's a 3 point game either way. A great way to start 2026 NFL!
That's about it for me today. You can expect a lot more action from me on here for the rest of the year. I'll have my weekly recaps plus my longer form ramblings when the mood strikes me. I still have a BTC post to make but it's a bit less exciting now. Still need to update some things. I may do another stonks update as well. Feel free to leave a comment, thanks for reading and (Eric the midget voice) *bye for now!*
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