Week 1 is officially in the books and I had the kind of week that literally gives me nightmares. Now, I only lost 1 unit on the week, so for all intents and purposes it was a blip. A nothing burger of a week. What could possibly be nightmarish about that? Let me explain.
I have 6 different, active sports betting accounts right now. A mix of my PPH, a few legal books, NoVig (an exchange) and a 'Pinnacle clone' we'll call it. Money is constantly moving in and out of each book/account, so it's hard to tell how I'm doing in any given week. I usually have a general feel of how things are going but I never really know until Monday (today) when I do my accounting for the prior week.
Now, starting this week off we had the SEA/PATS game. I talked about it on here but I was able to get SEA -2.5 -115 which was an absolute steal, plus some SEA +3.5 in a teaser. I hedged with a lot of PATS +2.5 but also a little bit of +3 and +3.5. That game landed absolutely perfectly with SEA winning by 3. Couldn't have asked for a better start.
The rest of the week was fine, nothing earth shattering. I had JAX-2.5 as the next leg in all of my teasers and hedged that mostly with CLE +8.5, +3.5, and some ML. Most of those bets were odds boost and free bets so I didn't have much CLE exposure at all. It would have been perfect if the JAX-2.5, CLE +8.5 middle hit but I didn't need it to. Or so I thought, I guess? JAX blows them out and we move on.
I then had GB +7.5 as the next leg in just about every teaser, which of course got blown out. However, I hedged out of it enough to show a profit no matter what with MIN -7.5, -8.5, and a lot of MIN ML at -125 which DK left up for a bit too long yesterday right before kickoff (NoVig was at -130/+127). If that game ended with MIN winning but GB still covering +7.5, it would have been massive, but still, it was arbed.
The only other big positions I had were PIT teased down to -.5, or an effective ML, and arbed out of that with ATL ML and a little piece of ATL +6.5. Basically free rolled on the middle. PIT won by 7, which stunk. Normally I would have found a way to get that extra point for the +7.5. But whatever, no real damage done.
I even found a new exploit on my PPH. He isn't charging enough to buy through a certain, key point. You can probably guess. So I was able to get a good 6 cent arb with big volume on two games too.
On all the random non NFL stuff I made a few units.
So I was going to bed last night thinking I had a really good week. Like, at least 10 units, maybe more. And I do my accounting this morning, all excited, and find out I lost a unit. And I swear to god, I just cannot figure out how. I don't know what happened! This is why it was a nightmare week. I wasn't kidding when I say that I literally have nightmares like this. That I forget to put in some massive hedge or double bet a teaser or something else stupid. Like there is some dumb, critical error in my sheets or something and I way over or under hedge or forget to put something in. It is a little tougher now with making orders on NoVig. It's possible I got something matched or didn't and recorded it wrong. I don't fucking know! I just have no idea how I was able to bink the SEA game, win money on non NFL straights, do all my teasers with perfect hedges, plus the arbs, PLUS the free bets and odds boosts, and come away DOWN a unit! This is quite literally the stuff of nightmares for me. Like I'm making a mistake with the teaser math or something? But I know its not the case, I double checked everything this morning. The only thing I can think of is that maybe, I guess, I was just absolutely free rolling on one of the teaser middles hitting? If CLE, ATL or MIN kept anything close, it would have been a huge week. I did hedge a lot of MIN on the ML instead of -7.5, but not all of it.
Even though it was a 'bad' week, big picture wise I'm still beyond excited for this NFL season. I lost a little bit on the PPH which, honestly, is a good thing. If GB covered, it would have been a massive win for me on there, right out of the gate on week 1. And with this new exploit I found, it might have been a blessing in disguise to not hit this guy for 5 figures literally week 1. As I've said before, I cannot believe he still lets me on there.
And I guess some growing pains are to be expected week 1 with an exchange. I do need to change a little bit of my set up to account for orders getting matched as the day goes on.
But, man. What a disappointing morning. I honestly thought I was forgetting an account or something. Still, as I write this, I'm befuddled. Embarrassing to even admit this.
Looking ahead, I have DEN +8.5 in a couple big teasers, plus some DEN +3.5 -145. I'll be hedging with KC -8.5 (I got some at +310) and I'm able to get KC -3.5 at +150ish.
TB looks like a great teaser leg right now. -8.5 at home vs CLE with a nice low total. I'd bet that goes towards 9 and not the other way around. I'll be watching for ATL to hit +1.5 on my PPH, and I'll be watching the LAC and BAL lines, too.
That's all for today. 2026 NFL week 1 in the books! A bizarre start to the year! Check back soon!
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