I'll tell ya, it really has been pretty fun taking on these new markets. I'm probably running a little bit hot but either way, the results have been very encouraging. Who would have thought? Having some of my best results lately in a time when no sports are even on. And I say encouraging because it's been really, really nice to have a lot of what I always thought to be true about markets and trading in general get reaffirmed. I've been doing this in one form or another for almost two full decades now and like most people (I assume), I always felt a twinge of 'imposter syndrome'. Even when I was doing this full time for a few years and it was my sole income, I never quite felt like a "real professional sports bettor." My models are rudimentary and I've always been in low-limit-prop-lowest-hanging-fruit land. I've come to terms that my edge doesn't come from superior math or data knowledge or slick modeling and being able to beat widely available lines, but rather it's my networking ability to find (and stay at) soft accounts, plus my all around trading skills. These past few months have given me a lot of confidence that my overall approach and general theory towards betting/trading is sound and carries over from market to market. Like I said earlier and have said before, really understanding market theory is more important than anything when it comes to trading. Because it's ubiquitous: (sick word) it can make you money on stocks, in sports, in politics and anywhere else where more than one person/place is offering to take a bet on the same thing.
That's enough sucking my own dick for now though. Let's update my entire slate of politics bets:
To Win Presidency
Bernie: risk 2.6u to win 16u (+600)
Biden: risk 6u to win 20u (+330)
Trump/republican: risk 16u to win 12.6u (-129)
Current Market Odds
Trump: 50%
Biden: 40%
Andrew Cuomo(?!): 5%
Bernie: 4%
Trump has rebounded a little bit over the past 2 weeks and like I said I would, I closed up my positions on him when I saw his price start to climb. I still was only able to get him at -115 but even those prices have all disappeared. So my final position here looks like this: if Biden wins I win about 1.5 units and if Trump wins I win 4. Pretty close to my original plan to free roll on Trump and I might add a little more on him if I can get good numbers. As it stands now though, as long as it's Biden or Trump I win either way. Decent spot to be in. Cuomo came out of nowhere but I dont think anyone is really taking that seriously.
Democrat Nomination
Biden: risk 10.5u to win 12u (+110)
Bernie: risk .8u to win 4u (+470)
Current Market Odds
Biden: 75%
Bernie: 10%
Cuomo: 8%
This is basically in the bag but it is a little scary to see Bidens number slowly slipping the past couple weeks. There's been some chatter of replacing him, especially after a news article came out where a "high level source inside the DNC" called him a 'melting ice cube' (vicious). His team seems to be actively hiding him as he is an absolute gaffe machine. He's been trying these little online interview/general address sessions where I guess he's pretending he's president already. But they've been disasters so far. He doesn't know when hes on, he looks old as fuck, theres a lot of him just staring blankly off screen and the most damning thing is the last thing he did got UNDER 700 total views! That's worldwide, the presumptive Democrat nominee to be President, at a time when everyone is locked inside. Imagine how many people would watch Trump or even Bernie doing a live broadcast from their house. Videos of literal 10 year olds opening video games get like 100 times the views that Biden is getting. So you can see how 'melting ice cube' is fitting. I'm probably going to stay pat here unless there's a big move on Biden either way. If it's anyone but Bernie or Biden, which seemed impossible a few weeks ago but now not so much, I take a near 12 unit bath. So that's not good. I really don't see that happening though and another thing I read that makes sense is that Biden has been hiding a little bit because he doesn't want to further piss off Bernie. Bernie hasn't dropped out yet and if Biden starts going around assuming he's the nominee, it could anger Bernie and his Bros even more and possibly enough to make them stay home come election time. Biden is still a massive favorite to win the remaining primaries, but with a lot of them being delayed there still is time for things to change. I'm holding steady here but ready to bail out if I have to.
To Win Popular Vote
Republicans: risk 1.9u to win 4.6u (+250)
Market odds: 32%
Slightly better than market price on this one. Not much to talk about here, basically break even EV wise.
To Win Dem Vice President Nomination
Klobuchar: risk 3u to win 19u (+630)
Warren: risk 1.5u to win 25u (+1600)
Harris: risk 3u to win 8.4u (+280)
Baldwin: risk .3u to win 10u (+3500)
Buttieg: risk .4u to win 5.6u (+1480)
Abrams: risk .75u to win 4.8u (+640)
G. Whitmer: risk .9u to win 7u (+740)
Market Odds:
Harris: 27%
Klobuchar: 26%
G. Whitmer: 14%
Cortez Masto: 10%
Abrams: 8%
Warren: 6%
Baldwin: 3%
This has been the market to watch for me. I think I got a little trigger happy here and ended up with more total at risk than I wanted to. I've been team Klobuchar for a while now and if she wins I win over 10u. If its Warren I win a huge chunk too, if its Baldwin I break even, and if its Harris or Whitmer I lose a little. Anyone else and I get scooped completely. So I'm really not thrilled with my position here to be honest. But let's take a deep dive into this market where I think I may have uncovered A CONSPIRACY!
Here's everything we know so far: Biden has committed to a woman, he's said "the leadership of this country should reflect the people in this country", the House Majority Whip (who is super important and has endorsed Biden) Jim Clyburn has 'urged Biden to pick a black woman', and he talked to Obama about who to pick. That's all pretty common knowledge.
But after doing some digging I found a couple sneaky good articles that had some really good info. The 'inside scoop' right now seems to be that Biden has a short list comprised of Klobuchar, Warren and Kamala Harris. He's also been open about the number one thing he's considering in all this is that the VP needs to be able to take over as President on day one. That's actually a pretty shocking thing to say for an incoming nominee but it makes sense. Everyone knows Bidens best days are behind him (he'll be 78 in November. 78!) and his running mate will have a higher than normal chance of taking over as President. And we all remember how much a bad/inexperienced VP can effect a nominee (Sarah Palin anyone?) So experience here is a must. That bodes well for Klobuchar the most in my opinion, but Warren and Harris aren't exactly new to the scene either.
A lot of people think Biden needs to pick a black woman to carry the black vote but that honestly don't really make sense. Biden already kills it with black people, especially older black people. And from what I can gather, black people don't exactly love the former federal prosecutor Kamala Harris, either. I think it's also a pretty condescending and down right racist way to think too, that black people will just mindlessly vote for Biden if he has a black VP. I dont think thats the case and I think that's an example of the insufferable leftist blue checkmark brigade on twitter being overly loud and wrong about something (shocking, I know.)
Another huge knock against Harris is how badly she attacked Biden early on. She called him racist right to his face in a national TV debate. I've also heard that Bidens wife, Jill Biden, hates Kamala Harris and any guy knows how that's kind of a sneaky big deal (though I did also read how insiders refute the Jill Biden/Harris angle and say its been overblown and more the product of rumors than anything else which could be true. But in my experience where theres smoke theres fire).
Klobuchar really seems like the best bet here, in my opinion. She checks every box: an experienced State governor with a great track record, she looks and 'seems' presidential, she endorsed Biden at the single most opportune time possible for him, AND has "let it slip" a few times that Biden has promised her something. Except one thing: shes white. And do the Dems really want to roll out another old, straight, white person ticket? (I think it really sucks honestly how much this stuff matters but you'd be beyond naive to think it doesnt). She is the front runner in my mind and from everything I can gather, a lot of people agree.
The talk around the online water cooler (various forums, articles and comment sections, which by the way, are unbelievably under rated sources for info. Everyone thinks online commentating is a cess pool of racist noise but trust me, it isn't. I'll actually get into this a lot more in a different post) is that Harris's price is way over valued on Predictit. And it got me thinking...her price moves on there have been suspect. For almost an entire month now, her price has been almost EXACTLY 1 cent better than Klobuchars, sometimes 2. Every time Klob gets a bump, Harris gets one soon after and always just one or two cents better. Even when Klob dips, Harris seems to do the same. This has me thinking about something I've LONG thought about; is Harris and her team betting on herself and artificially driving her price up??
Like Ive said before, PredictIt.com is no joke. There are hundreds of millions of dollars in individual markets, never mind whats in action across the total platform. Their odds are discussed and referenced quite often in political news, especially on twitter. If a candidate surges on there, it'll make news, even without any other concrete reason. So it definitely benefits a candidate to have a good showing on PredictIt. So why not just bet a ton on yourself and move the price? With all the hundreds of millions of dollars campaigns spend, why not put a few million on yourself on PredictIt? Mike Bloomberg spent 500 million on a campaign he knew hed lose. I think if he put even a fraction of that on himself winning across betting sites it would have been more effective than whatever the fuck he did spend it on. Plus, while it sounds sketchy as hell, I dont know of any law that says you cant do that. So is that happening now with Kamala Harris? Is she artificially pumping herself? If I had to guess honestly Id say no but it is absolutely not out of the question and I would be shocked if it hasnt happened before. Her price history is odd and unique though so obviously this will be something I'll continue to keep a close eye on.
Lastly, I added Grethen Whitmer this other day at +750. She's a dark horse who came out of nowhere but shes as high as 14% and climbing. Shes ahead of everyone except Harris and Klobuchar all of a sudden. Whitmer is the governor of Michigan and if youve been under a rock lately, she and Trump have been GOING AT IT online which you know the Dems love. She doesn't back down. She's basically been auditioning for the job lately, making all kinds of appearances and speeches about Corona virus and medical equipment (good gauge of new donor interest btw is a sudden spike in TV appearances). The general consensus around her seems to be unanimously positive and by all accounts she is handling the current crisis well. She has that woman presidential look that Hilary could never quite get (all business but sneaky sexy. Smiley and sincere but not dopey) and she comes across great on TV. Biden even mentioned her a while ago when talking publicly about his VP (called her 'that governor from Michigan"). Normally I would say this looks like a classic flash in the pan but I dunno. Theres a few select commentators I really like and theyre all over her. I took a flyer just to break even if it does end up being her. Id have liked to bet more but Im really up against the max bet on a lot of these books. Plus the deletion book is dead to me so I am really running out of places to get down on these (hence why getting new accounts all the time is the single most important thing in all of this).
So that's it for everything pending politically right now. Actually I still have those tiny bets on Hilary and Bloomberg to win the presidency but I'm counting those as losses already. The stock bets settle on Monday (I thought it was Friday for some reason. Im bad with dates/months things) and it looks like I'm gonna win literally every single one. I've been getting down on these little nibbles on where the Dow and S&P will close every other day which has been more free money, but the limits are tiny and the bets come and settle quickly so I wont include those bets on here.
Check back Monday or Tuesday for a stock update and HOPEFULLY some new stock market bets. See you guys soon, thank you for reading!
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Downside of PPH betting, update on stocks and hot dogs?
As I've alluded to many times in here, almost all of my action is on PPH sites. PPH stands for pay per head. These are sites that aren't official offshore sports books like bovada or 5dimes or BetOnline or any other sports book you've heard of. PPH's are skins that anyone can rent and give out to customers. The upside to PPH's is that the lines are almost always way, WAY softer than offshore sites which makes them way easier to beat of course. But as any PPH basher knows, winning and collecting aren't the same thing. The downside to PPH's is that you have to basically just trust that you'll get paid/not fucked with and if/when it happens, there aint a lot you can do.
That came into play today when I was informed that all of my stock market bets on a certain book were deleted. Just like that. Pending bets gone. This is the kind of shit you deal with in PPH land unfortunately. It's the same book that I've put probably 80% of political bets in and still have over 40 units at risk in politics on there so I can't go scorched earth over getting the stock bets cancelled. It's really a tight rope act sometimes with these accounts. You can't let yourself get dunked on and not do anything about it ever, but you also can't go Rambo and fly off the handle about it. Especially when the agent owes you still AND you have a ton of pending bets that are clear winners. I'm not putting another dollar at risk on this account ever obviously and really keeping my fingers crossed about all the pending stuff. It sucks and it makes you feel like a sucker when shit like this happens, but you really have to remember that this is sort of the cost of doing business and bake that fact in when trading. What really sucks is when you do arbs and middles across different accounts and one gets deleted/stiffed and the others stay. It happens from time to time, it sucks, but you gotta just take it in stride and move on.
So I'll update my new stock market positions. For my personal record keeping, I always only count "money collected" and not "money won." My thought is that stiffs and deletions are all part of the PPH world and you need to factor it in. For this blog I'll track the results two ways; one will be the official result with what I actually collect and one will be the entire slate from yesterday. I'll count whichever is worse for my official record on here just to keep things as honest as possible.
UPDATED STOCK MARKET POSITIONS:
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u
The u1825 +140 got deleted. This was the part of the middle that looked better on Sunday and I had over 2 units at risk. With the stock at 1928 now this actually looks like it'll work in my favor.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u
This was a middle paired with o190. It's actually at 168.48 now so again, this may actually benefit me.
Google
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u
Another free money spot, I had u1100 +120 for over 2 units which was deleted. Sitting at 1120.77 now actually so again, it may work out even better.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u
This was the polish middle where I had u345 at -116 risking over 3 units. Currently 357. See how dumb these bookies are? Even when they cheat they still can't figure it out.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u
This again was a middle where it looks like the deletion may help. I had u21.5 +110 for 1.5 units and the stock is actually all the way up to 26.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u - DELETED
Current price is 97. This guy really fucked himself. Good.
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u - DELETED
Currently 285. Finally one that worked against me.
Facebook
u155 -110 to win .75u - DELETED
Current price is 160 but moving all over the place.
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u - DELETED
Currently at 138 so this one will definitely cost me.
The rest are ones where I rode naked on and are still pending. Lets check in:
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u
Currently 113.9 so looking real good.
Ceasers Ent.
o5+205 risk .75u
Currently at 6.2 so looking good here too. I'm starting to see a pattern emerge here and it's simply contrarian trading. Buying overs on stocks that everyone would assume would tank, like Ceasers, Uber and Live Nation, and buying unders on stocks that everyone would assume would go up, like Costco and Clorox. Of course, that wasn't my plan going in and not everything worked that way (Netflix and Zoom for example). I was just looking for arbs and middles and playing off of after hours trading. But it is interesting and something to keep in mind if I'm able to bet these again.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u
Current price is 69.01. Another stock that you'd assume would crash and burn looks to be rebounding.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u
Currently at 42.43! Looks like Sunday MAY have been rock bottom for the market and we're in for a rebound. You never know what a stock is going to do though.
All in all the scumbag deletions may actually work in my favor. But like I said, for record keeping on here I'll go with whatever is worse for me. It's still early as these bets don't settle until Friday but so far so good. Very similar to my start in politics; the prices felt too good to be true and I'll probably kick myself later for not betting more, even though the limits are mostly tiny and I'm in for the max on a lot of these.
These bets will all do some damage to me long-term though. Sooner or later these books will have had enough and kick me out. Beating them up on random stuff like stock market special and politics gets you noticed pretty quick which is another thing you always have to consider when using PPHs. The more obscure the market, the easier it is to beat. But the flip side of that is that you stick out that much more and your leash gets shorter and shorter every week. Now especially with no sports on at all, I'm probably one of the only guys with any action at all on this guys board. It's already cost me an account with mister deletion, and I would not be shocked to have lost another account in the coming weeks.
Let's shift our attention though to the...
HOT DOG EATING CONTEST
Anyone who knows me knows that one of my all time favorite things to bet on has always been the 4th of July Nathans hot dog eating contest. Is there anything more American than betting cash on people stuffing their faces with SEVENTY-PLUS hot dogs on the 4th of July?? I didn't think so. I've been following this contest for over a decade now and am probably in the top 10% worldwide with hot dog eating contest betting knowledge so listen up.
The original king of this was this Japanese dude named Kobyiashi. He won every year from 2002 to 2006. Then there was some controversy and he was banned from the official contest (but he still competed unofficially one year from a rooftop nearby the real contest which was bonkers.) In 2007 Joey "Jaws" Chestnut came onto the scene and has won every year since then, except 2015 which went to Matt Stonie. Chestnut seemed to put things in a different gear after losing in 2015. In 2014 he won with 61 dogs. Since 2016 hes gone from 70 to 72 to 74(!) to 71 last year, all wins. And he doesn't just win, he CRUSHES.
2016: Jaws 70, second place 53
2017: Jaws 72, second place 60
2018: Jaws 74, second place 64
2019: Jaws 71, second place 50
So not only does he win consistently, hes also way WAY ahead of everyone else. And Stonie seems to have been a flash in the pan. After winning with 62 in 2015, he has never gone above 53 in the years since and only ate 46 last year. So the competition is slim for Jaws.
You can get him at around -1100 now. I'm going to wait until closer to July but I'll almost certainly have a bet on him to win. One of the very few times where I dont think price matters a whole bunch. As long as youre close to the market price I think you have a good bet.
Here are my bets so far.
Mens over 72.5 hot dogs +125 risk 1u
He's absolutely capable of going over 72. I like betting this early as I think the line will increase as it gets more attention and I can maybe look to bet the other side and have a nice little hot dog middle come July 4th.
Women over 37.5 +110 risk 1u
I don't much like this bet but again, I think I'll be able to get a good under closer to game day and have a free middle.
Miki Sudo to win womens: -500 to win 1u
Miki Sudo to NOT win womens: +600 risk 1.5u
Let's talk Miki Sudo. She THINKS shes the female Joey Jaws Chestnut but her numbers have been fading recently. Shes won every year since 2014 but she topped out in 2017 with 41 dogs. In 2018 she won with 37 and then a big drop off last year to 31. Has she peaked? I'm betting she has. By doing the half scalp of -500/+600, my effective bet is risking .5u to win 4u, or +800. So I'm getting +800 instead of +600 just by doing the scalp. I sacrifice some volume (so you see where the EV takes a hit) but I make up for it by increasing my price (hence the bump to EG. Textbook example of a hedge helping EG but hurting EV).
I'll have A LOT more on the hot dog eating contest as we get closer to July but thats what I have thus far.
That's it for today, make sure to check back Friday or Saturday for a stock market update!
That came into play today when I was informed that all of my stock market bets on a certain book were deleted. Just like that. Pending bets gone. This is the kind of shit you deal with in PPH land unfortunately. It's the same book that I've put probably 80% of political bets in and still have over 40 units at risk in politics on there so I can't go scorched earth over getting the stock bets cancelled. It's really a tight rope act sometimes with these accounts. You can't let yourself get dunked on and not do anything about it ever, but you also can't go Rambo and fly off the handle about it. Especially when the agent owes you still AND you have a ton of pending bets that are clear winners. I'm not putting another dollar at risk on this account ever obviously and really keeping my fingers crossed about all the pending stuff. It sucks and it makes you feel like a sucker when shit like this happens, but you really have to remember that this is sort of the cost of doing business and bake that fact in when trading. What really sucks is when you do arbs and middles across different accounts and one gets deleted/stiffed and the others stay. It happens from time to time, it sucks, but you gotta just take it in stride and move on.
So I'll update my new stock market positions. For my personal record keeping, I always only count "money collected" and not "money won." My thought is that stiffs and deletions are all part of the PPH world and you need to factor it in. For this blog I'll track the results two ways; one will be the official result with what I actually collect and one will be the entire slate from yesterday. I'll count whichever is worse for my official record on here just to keep things as honest as possible.
UPDATED STOCK MARKET POSITIONS:
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u
The u1825 +140 got deleted. This was the part of the middle that looked better on Sunday and I had over 2 units at risk. With the stock at 1928 now this actually looks like it'll work in my favor.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u
This was a middle paired with o190. It's actually at 168.48 now so again, this may actually benefit me.
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u
Another free money spot, I had u1100 +120 for over 2 units which was deleted. Sitting at 1120.77 now actually so again, it may work out even better.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u
This was the polish middle where I had u345 at -116 risking over 3 units. Currently 357. See how dumb these bookies are? Even when they cheat they still can't figure it out.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u
This again was a middle where it looks like the deletion may help. I had u21.5 +110 for 1.5 units and the stock is actually all the way up to 26.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u - DELETED
Current price is 97. This guy really fucked himself. Good.
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u - DELETED
Currently 285. Finally one that worked against me.
u155 -110 to win .75u - DELETED
Current price is 160 but moving all over the place.
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u - DELETED
Currently at 138 so this one will definitely cost me.
The rest are ones where I rode naked on and are still pending. Lets check in:
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u
Currently 113.9 so looking real good.
Ceasers Ent.
o5+205 risk .75u
Currently at 6.2 so looking good here too. I'm starting to see a pattern emerge here and it's simply contrarian trading. Buying overs on stocks that everyone would assume would tank, like Ceasers, Uber and Live Nation, and buying unders on stocks that everyone would assume would go up, like Costco and Clorox. Of course, that wasn't my plan going in and not everything worked that way (Netflix and Zoom for example). I was just looking for arbs and middles and playing off of after hours trading. But it is interesting and something to keep in mind if I'm able to bet these again.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u
Current price is 69.01. Another stock that you'd assume would crash and burn looks to be rebounding.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u
Currently at 42.43! Looks like Sunday MAY have been rock bottom for the market and we're in for a rebound. You never know what a stock is going to do though.
All in all the scumbag deletions may actually work in my favor. But like I said, for record keeping on here I'll go with whatever is worse for me. It's still early as these bets don't settle until Friday but so far so good. Very similar to my start in politics; the prices felt too good to be true and I'll probably kick myself later for not betting more, even though the limits are mostly tiny and I'm in for the max on a lot of these.
These bets will all do some damage to me long-term though. Sooner or later these books will have had enough and kick me out. Beating them up on random stuff like stock market special and politics gets you noticed pretty quick which is another thing you always have to consider when using PPHs. The more obscure the market, the easier it is to beat. But the flip side of that is that you stick out that much more and your leash gets shorter and shorter every week. Now especially with no sports on at all, I'm probably one of the only guys with any action at all on this guys board. It's already cost me an account with mister deletion, and I would not be shocked to have lost another account in the coming weeks.
Let's shift our attention though to the...
HOT DOG EATING CONTEST
Anyone who knows me knows that one of my all time favorite things to bet on has always been the 4th of July Nathans hot dog eating contest. Is there anything more American than betting cash on people stuffing their faces with SEVENTY-PLUS hot dogs on the 4th of July?? I didn't think so. I've been following this contest for over a decade now and am probably in the top 10% worldwide with hot dog eating contest betting knowledge so listen up.
The original king of this was this Japanese dude named Kobyiashi. He won every year from 2002 to 2006. Then there was some controversy and he was banned from the official contest (but he still competed unofficially one year from a rooftop nearby the real contest which was bonkers.) In 2007 Joey "Jaws" Chestnut came onto the scene and has won every year since then, except 2015 which went to Matt Stonie. Chestnut seemed to put things in a different gear after losing in 2015. In 2014 he won with 61 dogs. Since 2016 hes gone from 70 to 72 to 74(!) to 71 last year, all wins. And he doesn't just win, he CRUSHES.
2016: Jaws 70, second place 53
2017: Jaws 72, second place 60
2018: Jaws 74, second place 64
2019: Jaws 71, second place 50
So not only does he win consistently, hes also way WAY ahead of everyone else. And Stonie seems to have been a flash in the pan. After winning with 62 in 2015, he has never gone above 53 in the years since and only ate 46 last year. So the competition is slim for Jaws.
You can get him at around -1100 now. I'm going to wait until closer to July but I'll almost certainly have a bet on him to win. One of the very few times where I dont think price matters a whole bunch. As long as youre close to the market price I think you have a good bet.
Here are my bets so far.
Mens over 72.5 hot dogs +125 risk 1u
He's absolutely capable of going over 72. I like betting this early as I think the line will increase as it gets more attention and I can maybe look to bet the other side and have a nice little hot dog middle come July 4th.
Women over 37.5 +110 risk 1u
I don't much like this bet but again, I think I'll be able to get a good under closer to game day and have a free middle.
Miki Sudo to win womens: -500 to win 1u
Miki Sudo to NOT win womens: +600 risk 1.5u
Let's talk Miki Sudo. She THINKS shes the female Joey Jaws Chestnut but her numbers have been fading recently. Shes won every year since 2014 but she topped out in 2017 with 41 dogs. In 2018 she won with 37 and then a big drop off last year to 31. Has she peaked? I'm betting she has. By doing the half scalp of -500/+600, my effective bet is risking .5u to win 4u, or +800. So I'm getting +800 instead of +600 just by doing the scalp. I sacrifice some volume (so you see where the EV takes a hit) but I make up for it by increasing my price (hence the bump to EG. Textbook example of a hedge helping EG but hurting EV).
I'll have A LOT more on the hot dog eating contest as we get closer to July but thats what I have thus far.
That's it for today, make sure to check back Friday or Saturday for a stock market update!
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Betting on the stock market
As I mentioned in my last post, sports books are putting up markets for all kinds of whacky stuff and just as I suspected, there's some free money out there. Two of my books put up 'stock market specials' and there were more than a couple juicy straight up arbs, some middles, and some positions where I ride naked on. *
*(An arb (or scalp) is when there is a price discrepancy big enough that it that allows you to guarantee profit no matter what. Literal free money (as long as you get paid). For example; say you can bet on a coin flip. One guy gives you even odds, another guy gives you +105. You bet 102 to win 102 at even odds on heads and 100 to win 105 at +105 on tails. You win 2 if its heads and 3 if its tails. Add a zero or two and do this a few times a day and you're in business. Riding naked is simply taking a position, aka not arbing or half-arbing).
The question of when to hedge/arb/scalp/middle (all basically the same thing) and when not to is quite interesting. In general, hedging is good for EG (expected growth) of your bankroll while riding naked is better for EV (expected value). You used to be able to make a living just arbing tiny price discrepancies in obscure little markets by being able to move balances across dozens and dozens of offshore books using Netteller (and taking advantage of sign up bonuses/rebates). Then congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act in 2006 which shut down netteller and made moving money around a lot harder. Plus online books got smarter.
Id advise anyone starting out to look for nothing but arbs and middles. It teaches you to really understand and value differences in price and to really fight tooth and nail for every cent/point. Also if you're in a super inefficient market and can't handicap it yourself, just take the free money if its there. Another time to hedge is when you pre-plan it. Say you find a price so juicy that you want to max it out. Lets say the line on the Pats is Pats -7.5 but you can get it at -6. You max out pats -6 for 10 units knowing you can buy back the Pats opponent at +7.5 for 8 units. So you have 2 units at risk on the Pats at the juicy -6, but you also have a nice middle where if the Pats win by a touchdown you win both bets. You can see how in this situation you want to bet as much as possible since you can't possibly lose both bets but there's a small chance you can win both. (Getting a middle that fat happens maybe a couple times a year). The best thing that can happen is when you find +EV numbers on both sides. Those are the kind of positions that you live for as a trader.
Once you get the hang of that down, you can start taking positions yourself and 'ride naked'. In the coin flip example above, you'd clearly want to ride naked. It doesn't get much better than getting plus odds on a literal coin flip. If you're trading off of a really liquid, efficient market you can feel safer riding naked. Basically, the more confidence in your position relative to the market (and assuming its a good market to gauge against) the more willing you should be to ride naked.
Ok, ANYWAY, on to the action.
Two of my books put up markets on where certain stocks will close March 31. Very interesting. It's a sneaky way to speculate in the stock market with absolutely zero fees and with ridiculous price discrepancies not only with the actual market but with each other. So let's get into it. Note: Some of these prices are widely available still so if you have any accounts Id check em out.
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u
u1825 +140 risk 2.25u
Pretty good example of a half-arb/middle. It closed at 1846 Friday and is at 1830 in after hours trading (its so cute that the stock market "closes" by the way). With BetOnline putting under 1750 at +120, I'm pretty confident that under 1825 at +140 is the much better value so I'm more exposed to under. But you can see I have a decent chance of hitting both and didn't have to pay too much for it. I could have just rode dirty on the under but getting the 125 point middle was too much to pass up.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u
o190 +105 risk 1.12u
Straight up middle. May have been a little too pricey to be honest. Don't love it but small volume.
Google
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u
u1100 +120 risk 2.25u
Here's the free money I was talking about. Getting +120 on both sides of the same line is so fun. It closed at 1068 Friday and is down to 1060 in after hours. Plus with BetOnline putting the under at -165, I think its safe to say the under is the right side here. So I have 1 unit at risk on the under. In hindsight I probably should have rode naked here, but this is all pretty new to me and everyone else really so I don't mind being a little cautious. I don't think any markets are totally reliable right now, even the stock market, so I erred to caution on a lot of these.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u
u345-116 risk 3.33u
Ooo interesting, a POLISH middle. This is the opposite of a middle. I'm betting that it'll close on anything other than between 350 and 345. See this is the opposite since now theres a large chance I'll win a little and a small chance I'll lose both. It closed at 332.83 Friday and is at 331 in after hours so I think the under is the good line and I'm exposed for 1ish units on it.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u
u21.5 +110 risk 1.5u
More free money. Again, getting plus odds on not only both sides of a bet, but getting the free small little middle in there is absurd. I win no matter what and if it closes between 20 and 21.5 I win both. Sweet.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u
Riding naked here. Closed at 85.98 friday and is down a little to 85.8 in after hours. They've obviously been getting slaughtered the past month with very little bounceback. BetOnline has u90 at -180 so I think this is clearly the right side.
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u
Closed at 290.42 Friday and is down to 288.32 in after hours. BetOnline has u320 at -170 so I'm ok with the little nibble here.
Facebook
u155 -110 to win .75u
Been in absolute freefall over the past month (as have most stocks), closed at 149.73 Friday and down to 148 (over a full percent) in after hours so no reason to think it's on its way back up.
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u
They do work for home video conference stuff and are one of the few stocks rocketing upwards over the past month. Closed Friday at 130.55 and is up all the way to 132 in after hours. No reason to think it'll reverse. BetOnline has over 110 at -175 which I think is probably a good bet too.
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u
It closed at 113.97 Friday and is down slightly in after hours trading . BetOnline has under 135 at -200. Don't like this bet very much to be honest but we'll see.
Ceasers Ent.
o5 +205 risk .75u
They've obviously taken a beating the last month or so but I think it reached it bottom Friday. It was as low as 3.34 last week but bounced back to 5.45 at close and up to 5.54 in after hours. Getting +205 here seems silly but I only put in .75 units just because I'm really not too sure about this stuff and it seems too good to be true. Although I felt the same way starting out this year in politics and was pissed at myself later for pussyfooting around (as good as I did/am doing it should have been a lot better). We'll see how these things do and hopefully can open it up next time if they keep offering this market.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u
Closed at 61.6 and steady in after hours. Same thing as the above bet pretty much.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u
Another stock that has just been brutalized by Corona. Its up since the 18th though and closed at 33.97 Friday. Down slightly to 33.6 in after hours. Like the above two bets, its a nibble on a price that looks too good to be true in a market I am very unsure of.
That's everything for stocks. On top of everything else, I think betting these on a Sunday is optimal too since the price seem to ignore after hours trading completely. From what I can gather, after hours trading has much less volume but it's mostly done by institutions and high net worth individuals. So my hunch is that the moves are smaller but more meaningful. I'm very interested to see where these stocks close Monday.
Random stuff:
A few more random bets I have pending I'll include for completeness sake.
Brady to be on Pats 2021 -150 risk 2.25u
Made this way back in January. Obviously complete toast but wouldn't be fair not to include it.
Brady to wear #12 in Tampa
Yes -130 to win .75u
Too bad the limit was .75 units for me since this about as good of a lock as there is. Did they forget about his company, TB12?? ZERO chance he changes numbers.
So that's it for now. Nothing has settled in the politics markets since last post so nothing to update there. Hope everyone is doing ok during all this madness!
*(An arb (or scalp) is when there is a price discrepancy big enough that it that allows you to guarantee profit no matter what. Literal free money (as long as you get paid). For example; say you can bet on a coin flip. One guy gives you even odds, another guy gives you +105. You bet 102 to win 102 at even odds on heads and 100 to win 105 at +105 on tails. You win 2 if its heads and 3 if its tails. Add a zero or two and do this a few times a day and you're in business. Riding naked is simply taking a position, aka not arbing or half-arbing).
The question of when to hedge/arb/scalp/middle (all basically the same thing) and when not to is quite interesting. In general, hedging is good for EG (expected growth) of your bankroll while riding naked is better for EV (expected value). You used to be able to make a living just arbing tiny price discrepancies in obscure little markets by being able to move balances across dozens and dozens of offshore books using Netteller (and taking advantage of sign up bonuses/rebates). Then congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act in 2006 which shut down netteller and made moving money around a lot harder. Plus online books got smarter.
Id advise anyone starting out to look for nothing but arbs and middles. It teaches you to really understand and value differences in price and to really fight tooth and nail for every cent/point. Also if you're in a super inefficient market and can't handicap it yourself, just take the free money if its there. Another time to hedge is when you pre-plan it. Say you find a price so juicy that you want to max it out. Lets say the line on the Pats is Pats -7.5 but you can get it at -6. You max out pats -6 for 10 units knowing you can buy back the Pats opponent at +7.5 for 8 units. So you have 2 units at risk on the Pats at the juicy -6, but you also have a nice middle where if the Pats win by a touchdown you win both bets. You can see how in this situation you want to bet as much as possible since you can't possibly lose both bets but there's a small chance you can win both. (Getting a middle that fat happens maybe a couple times a year). The best thing that can happen is when you find +EV numbers on both sides. Those are the kind of positions that you live for as a trader.
Once you get the hang of that down, you can start taking positions yourself and 'ride naked'. In the coin flip example above, you'd clearly want to ride naked. It doesn't get much better than getting plus odds on a literal coin flip. If you're trading off of a really liquid, efficient market you can feel safer riding naked. Basically, the more confidence in your position relative to the market (and assuming its a good market to gauge against) the more willing you should be to ride naked.
Ok, ANYWAY, on to the action.
Two of my books put up markets on where certain stocks will close March 31. Very interesting. It's a sneaky way to speculate in the stock market with absolutely zero fees and with ridiculous price discrepancies not only with the actual market but with each other. So let's get into it. Note: Some of these prices are widely available still so if you have any accounts Id check em out.
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u
u1825 +140 risk 2.25u
Pretty good example of a half-arb/middle. It closed at 1846 Friday and is at 1830 in after hours trading (its so cute that the stock market "closes" by the way). With BetOnline putting under 1750 at +120, I'm pretty confident that under 1825 at +140 is the much better value so I'm more exposed to under. But you can see I have a decent chance of hitting both and didn't have to pay too much for it. I could have just rode dirty on the under but getting the 125 point middle was too much to pass up.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u
o190 +105 risk 1.12u
Straight up middle. May have been a little too pricey to be honest. Don't love it but small volume.
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u
u1100 +120 risk 2.25u
Here's the free money I was talking about. Getting +120 on both sides of the same line is so fun. It closed at 1068 Friday and is down to 1060 in after hours. Plus with BetOnline putting the under at -165, I think its safe to say the under is the right side here. So I have 1 unit at risk on the under. In hindsight I probably should have rode naked here, but this is all pretty new to me and everyone else really so I don't mind being a little cautious. I don't think any markets are totally reliable right now, even the stock market, so I erred to caution on a lot of these.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u
u345-116 risk 3.33u
Ooo interesting, a POLISH middle. This is the opposite of a middle. I'm betting that it'll close on anything other than between 350 and 345. See this is the opposite since now theres a large chance I'll win a little and a small chance I'll lose both. It closed at 332.83 Friday and is at 331 in after hours so I think the under is the good line and I'm exposed for 1ish units on it.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u
u21.5 +110 risk 1.5u
More free money. Again, getting plus odds on not only both sides of a bet, but getting the free small little middle in there is absurd. I win no matter what and if it closes between 20 and 21.5 I win both. Sweet.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u
Riding naked here. Closed at 85.98 friday and is down a little to 85.8 in after hours. They've obviously been getting slaughtered the past month with very little bounceback. BetOnline has u90 at -180 so I think this is clearly the right side.
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u
Closed at 290.42 Friday and is down to 288.32 in after hours. BetOnline has u320 at -170 so I'm ok with the little nibble here.
u155 -110 to win .75u
Been in absolute freefall over the past month (as have most stocks), closed at 149.73 Friday and down to 148 (over a full percent) in after hours so no reason to think it's on its way back up.
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u
They do work for home video conference stuff and are one of the few stocks rocketing upwards over the past month. Closed Friday at 130.55 and is up all the way to 132 in after hours. No reason to think it'll reverse. BetOnline has over 110 at -175 which I think is probably a good bet too.
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u
It closed at 113.97 Friday and is down slightly in after hours trading . BetOnline has under 135 at -200. Don't like this bet very much to be honest but we'll see.
Ceasers Ent.
o5 +205 risk .75u
They've obviously taken a beating the last month or so but I think it reached it bottom Friday. It was as low as 3.34 last week but bounced back to 5.45 at close and up to 5.54 in after hours. Getting +205 here seems silly but I only put in .75 units just because I'm really not too sure about this stuff and it seems too good to be true. Although I felt the same way starting out this year in politics and was pissed at myself later for pussyfooting around (as good as I did/am doing it should have been a lot better). We'll see how these things do and hopefully can open it up next time if they keep offering this market.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u
Closed at 61.6 and steady in after hours. Same thing as the above bet pretty much.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u
Another stock that has just been brutalized by Corona. Its up since the 18th though and closed at 33.97 Friday. Down slightly to 33.6 in after hours. Like the above two bets, its a nibble on a price that looks too good to be true in a market I am very unsure of.
That's everything for stocks. On top of everything else, I think betting these on a Sunday is optimal too since the price seem to ignore after hours trading completely. From what I can gather, after hours trading has much less volume but it's mostly done by institutions and high net worth individuals. So my hunch is that the moves are smaller but more meaningful. I'm very interested to see where these stocks close Monday.
Random stuff:
A few more random bets I have pending I'll include for completeness sake.
Brady to be on Pats 2021 -150 risk 2.25u
Made this way back in January. Obviously complete toast but wouldn't be fair not to include it.
Brady to wear #12 in Tampa
Yes -130 to win .75u
Too bad the limit was .75 units for me since this about as good of a lock as there is. Did they forget about his company, TB12?? ZERO chance he changes numbers.
So that's it for now. Nothing has settled in the politics markets since last post so nothing to update there. Hope everyone is doing ok during all this madness!
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Trading 101 And A Look Around
Man oh man, huh. What a wild couple weeks it's been. I've been slowly writing this post over the course of a few days and it's crazy how things keep changing. Last thing we need more of is a non-scientist giving opinions about a global pandemic so I'll skip the CORONA VIRUS talk. With no sports even on we'll stay with politics. Let's take a little step back today and get into the theory of market capping and what exactly it is that I'm doing here. I also have what I think is a good idea to better capture the true market value for political bets, better than just using predictit.com's current price by itself. And we'll look at two major interesting markets.
We get into all that and more! But first a quick note; the first couple posts I made here were a little rushed. I realize that posting bets I made months ago at prices and places no one else can get isn't exactly the most captivating or useful stuff. It's honestly pretty hacky. I could be completely making them up or just cherry picking the good ones (I'm not and could prove it but still. It's bad form). It was the night before Super Tuesday and I really wanted to get this going, but going forward I'll post bets a lot closer to when I actually make them. I don't for-see this blog really becoming just 'picks' though as I'd like to delve into more the theory about what exactly trading is and how and why it works. So let's do that.
When I say 'trading', I'm simply talking about making a bet. The trade is in me 'buying' a position and the bookie 'selling' it to me. So when I bet on, say, Biden to win the presidency at +500, Im buying that position from the sports book. Just as I have a bet on Biden to win at +500 odds, the book now has a position of 'anyone but Biden to win' at -500 odds. This is a subtle but important point that was one of the first light bulb moments for me in my betting 'career.' Anytime you make a bet, think about the bet you're giving to the sports book. IE, let's say you bet the Pats against the Jets at -7 -110. You're 'giving' the book the position of Jets +7 +110. Think about which side has the best of it. Would you rather have your bet or the books'? It's good practice to ask yourself that question anytime you make any kind of bet; what bet am I giving to the sports book/other guy? Which one would I rather have? And if I think mine is better, why would they willingly take it?
The second part of this equation is 'the market'. What is this market you speak of, you may be asking yourself. A market is basically any place that facilitates the buying and selling of things. The stock market, the sports betting market, the political betting market and an open air fish market downtown are all basically the same things. Whether youre buying local salmon or a position that Trump will win the popular vote in the next election, the fundamentals are the same.
For our purposes, I've been using predictit.com as a proxy for the general market for political betting. I believe theyre the most efficient market out there for politics betting, so their line is as close to the true line as you'll ever get. It's easy and legal for almost anyone in the world to bet on predictit and they publish the amount of shares traded in each market. The big ones have over 100 million dollars in them (123 million shares have been purchased in the market for Dem nomination alone and each share is $1). That means that hundreds of thousands of individuals, all independent of each other have backed up their opinions with hundreds of millions of dollars to buy and sell YES/NO positions from each other. As more people buy up one side, it becomes more expensive and the other side becomes less expensive - basic supply and demand. This back and forth action moves the price of the YES and NO shares accordingly with how much money comes in on both sides. Wherever that price currently is is the 'true value.'
So what I do, and what any 'market capper' does, is look for inefficient markets (the political section of my sports books for example) and find odds on certain things that are out of whack from the 'real' efficient market. If there's a "right" price, that means there has to be a "wrong" price (that was light bulb #2 for me). If the millions of dollars on predicitit.com say an event should be priced at -120 (or 54.6%, same thing) but I can bet it at even odds at a random sports book that has probably 0 dollars in action besides me, it's probably a good bet. The bigger the gap in the efficient price and the price that you get the better. You don't need to do any handicapping yourself when market capping - you're letting the millions of dollars in action on predicit (and other places we'll get into) do the handicapping and number crunching for you. It's honestly as easy as reading two line sets at once and clicking buttons. The skill is in finding and keeping these sports book accounts with ridiculously inefficient markets hidden in them and knowing what to do once you do find them.
If you want advice on how to be a more advanced bettor (on anything), you'd be better off learning about market theory and what makes markets efficient vs inefficient and all that entails rather than learning about sports and stats. This is obviously a very basic intro, there's a ton more to it which I'll get into in later posts.
Speaking of markets, it occurred to me that while predicitit.com is probably the single best indicator of true market value, there are other indicators and ignoring them completely is dumb. There are two other places I'm going to use for finding true market value; the biggest and most respected sports book in the world, pinnaclesports.com (using their no-vig line), and Nate Silvers projection model in his blog 538.
Pinnacle has always been the end all be all of market makers for pretty much everything. They always had the highest limits, lowest juice, best reputation and most importantly, they didn't kick out winners. So the best of the best end up there. They had to pull out of the US market (which doesnt really matter since everyone uses a VPN anyway) and have increased their juice a little bit so there's been a lot of talk about them not being king of the hill anymore. I don't really agree, I still see the whole market move when they do and not the other way around. But I will check the other big boys, the Bookmaker.com and BetCRIS.com too - can't hurt.
538/Nate Silver got on the map huge in 2012 for getting every single state and almost every single Senate race right, and they're generally the most respected unbiased public projections out there.
I'll have to do some more thinking and tinkering in excel but it'll probably be an amalgamation of something like 60% predictit's odds, 25% pinnacle/bookmaker/betcris and 15% 538. (Always follow money over blogs or projections when market capping. Skin in the game is important.) Doing this will also make me way more in tune with the market as a whole, as well as identify spots where the 'big 3' disagree which can be quite interesting in and of itself. I'll be using just predicitit's price until I come up with the formula though.
Alright lets take a little break. Do a little stretch. Deep breath. We're doing great. Back to it.
Let's take a look around the big markets and see where the dust has settled for today.
Odds To Win Presidency (in percentage form from predictit):
Biden: 48%
Trump: 45%
Pence: 4%
Pretty big tumble for Trump. Not what I expected at all - global pandemic and everything. But that's the thing! There's ALWAYS something you didn't for-see. There's always an excuse in hindsight. 'Oh that was a one in a million shot, the position was good, no one could have seen that coming' etc. We heard a lot of that from the "smart" people with fancy degrees on TV during the 2008 recession. Good thing to keep in mind; you don't know what you don't know.
Clearly my 5 or whatever units on Trump at -160 are basically toast. At least I was adding Biden at +170 for most of the amount at the same time. But still, pretty good example of why I almost always strictly market cap and not try to predict the movement myself. I could get him at even odds now! I've been nibbling a little on Trump as I'm still a little bit more exposed to a Biden win but his price has just been falling and falling. When I see it start to move back up again I'll have my fill. Then I can decide if I want a nice little free roll on election day or take a position. My original plan was to free roll on Trump (put at risk as many units as Id win if Biden wins) but nothing's set in stone. It's best to just take whatever the market gives you, so we shall see.
Odds to win Democratic VP nomination
Klobuchar: 31%
Kamala Harris: 28%
Stacey Abrams: 14%
Liz Warren: 9%
This has been the most interesting market to watch. 13.5 million shares bought in it already so it's a mature market. I'm looking good in it too, backing Klobuchar with 3 units risked with an average price of +638 (current price is +222.) I have enough on Harris to break even if she wins and got lotto ticket numbers on Warren, who has fallen off sharply. My only exposure here is either Abrams, who I have to win for about half of my total units at risk in this market, or an unknown. Biden already committed to a woman (which is such pandering, by the way. Can't we just have the best person? If I were a woman this would enrage me. It feels like charity. And is gender a real thing or not? I don't see how it can be so important to have a woman in office if gender is a 'social construct'... but I digress). So unless he throws a complete curveball, there are only a few women that make sense and have been floated about. I just happened to find really good prices on Klobuchar, especially right after she endorsed Biden and he won Minnesota, but I do think he'll pick her. Harris attacked Biden pretty hard and her campaign this year was universally considered a disaster. She was expected to make a real run and flamed out fast and hard. Plus she's getting killed lately after proposing giving 'only' $500 a month to CA families during the pandemic while others (including republicans) have called for $1k per person. So I'll be watching this one closely, taking little nibbles as they come but overall I'm pretty happy with the position I have.
The Illinois and Arizona primaries settled last night. You'll see from my first post that I had 'anyone but Bernie' at +250 risking 2u in Illinois and 'anyone but Bernie' at +650(!) risking 1u for Arizona. Both won for a NICE little win of 11.5 units. The only primary/caucus bets I have left are Biden to win Wyoming at +400 risking 1u and 'anyone but Bernie' to win Ohio at +185 risking 1.5 units (all in the first post). Ohio was actually supposed to be last night but was cancelled last minute due to the virus. Biden has it wrapped up but still, always worrisome when something like that happens. Books will look for any excuse to no action a winner. But overall obviously very good so far with over 12 units in the bank and lots of good numbers on Dem nomination, VP nomination and President winner.
Lastly, now is actually a good time to really scan whatever sports book accounts you have. They're all offering tons of new random stuff and whenever sports books try something new there's always money to be made. I've been thinking of taking on a completely new sport and trying to model it. If I really get stuck at home soon I'll probably take that on. I actually read a research paper about Curling last week that was interesting. I found a couple weird things they do with score keeping and some in game stuff that seems possibly exploitable. There's a lot of conceding mid match which doesn't factor into the stats...I've already said too much! I'll probably get into some actual modeling in my next couple blogs which is the exact opposite of market capping. It's coming up with your own line, better than the markets. Stay tuned!
So that's it! Jesus this was long. Thanks for reading it. Have fun and stay home everyone!
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
Super Tuesday Results
Primary results, Bye Bye Bernie, Sleepy Joe back from the dead, VP race starts to heat up and more!
A pretty wild Super Tuesday has come and gone and we got a lot of interesting results. It was basically all Joe Biden as he won every state he was supposed to, plus a couple surprises. Bernie just fell flat on his face and like my friend mentioned, the fact that Bernie AND Warren had poor nights is a very, very bad sign for Bernie. Because if Warren had a decent showing you could at least make the argument that she 'stole' a lot of Bernie votes which would go to him anyway if/when she drops out (well some would, anyway. The Bernie Bros arent exactly known for their rational thought). In quite a few states, like Virginia and North Carolina (among others), Biden actually beat Bernie AND Warren combined. So I think it was even a worse night for Bernie than it seemed. PredictIt has him at +455 (17%) right now to win the nomination which seems still too high to me, but then again crazier things have happened. But it looks like it's pretty clearly going to be Trump vs Biden for all the marbles in November.
Overall I had a decent night with a small profit but it was actually a little disappointing. I had some bet sizing mistakes that hurt and one bet in particular that I'm really kicking myself over. But the good news is I gained a TON of equity on just about every bet still pending, so let's dive in shall we?
California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. WIN
Biden +350 risk 1u. LOSS
No surprise here as the Peoples Republic of Fecal-Covered California went with Bernie.
+1.5 units
Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. WIN
Biden +300 risk 1u. LOSS
Same as CA.
+2 units
Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u LOSS
Biden +225 risk 1u WIN
This was a bit of a surprise as Bernie was a -376 favorite the night before, but I did remark that it seemed strange to me and a lot of late money came in on Biden. As is the case on most of these, my 'Bernie hedged with Biden' strategy ended up paying off nicely.
+.25 units
Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3 units LOSS
Biden +200 risk 1u WIN
This one was a bit of a shocker as everyone had Bernie winning. I even said in my last post that my only regret was not betting more on Bernie. That's why I almost always trust to the market over my personal thoughts. But the big story here is Liz Warren coming in an abysmal 3rd place in her home state. She'll drop out soon and becomes an interesting VP candidate... More on that later.
+.75 units
Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u LOSS
Biden +300 risk 1u WIN
This was the state that made my night go from good to just ok. BAD bet sizing. I was fine up until Tuesday when I got Bernie at -500 to win 1u. Really horrible bet. Just awful. From what I can gather, Biden was basically punting Minnesota but the Klob-bot drop out and endorsement changed everything. I got a little greedy with the -500 bet and paid for it. I actually didn't even realize how over exposed I was here on Bernie. Just bad all around!!
-4.17 units (yuck!)
North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u LOSS
Another over bet. Too high of a bet for an underdog, plus the market beat me, PLUS no Biden hedge! Again, little bit of greed, little bit of not paying enough attention. Cant happen!
-2 units
Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u LOSS
Bad bet, didnt beat the market again on this one and lost. Only 1.25 units at least
-1.25u
Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u WIN
Really liked this bet as I snuck it in right after the big Biden surge late Tuesday afternoon. Glad I went in for unit double bet too. I actually had another unit sized bet ready to go at +170 but chickened out.
+3.4 units
Virginia
Biden -285 to win 1u WIN
I was nervous about an upset here but Biden won HUGE.
+1 unit
OVERALL: +1.48 UNITS
So 'unit won wise' it was an OK night that really should have gone better. The -500 Bernie Minnesota bet was the real killer. Thats a 6 unit swing if Bernie could have pulled it out. However, I'm pleased with the results as I was initially really heavy on Bernie and was using my Biden positions as a hedge. I was basically in the position that if Biden didn't surge on Tuesday and Bernie ran the table (which was the favorite to happen as late as Tuesday morning) I would have cleaned up big time with my Bernie bets. But Biden came on strong late Tuesday so I was able to add some more Biden at good prices and turn a small profit. It was nice watching the news knowing that I was free rolling and ending up in the green with either Biden or Bernie having a good night.
But the bigger news for me here is how much better a lot of my pending bets have become. While everything Bernie is all but dust, my Biden positions have obviously improved drastically, and some of the prices I got are crazy. Biden to win the nominee at +208 risking 5 units (which means to win over 10 units) is boner-inducing, especially with the market at -316(!) now. My 'anyone but bernie' to win Illinois at +250 and Ohio at +185 are both unreal with both markets putting Biden as heavy favorites. Same thing with Wyoming where I have Biden at +400 and the market is at -212. Or how about Arizona? I snuck in an 'anyone but bernie' at +650 and Biden is at -335 now! (All these bets were posted on my last blog post, obviously.)
So you can see what I'm talking about when I write about these wild price changes in politics. It leaves SO much room to get in and gobble up equity. And it's not like sports where the window to beat the market is literally a couple seconds; some of these lines were so far off-market for hours. Some even days! Come on in boys, the water is fine!
Moving on, I did put in some more bets today after the big shake up from last night. It's always a good idea to cruise around and check prices EVERYWHERE when a big change happens, like it did for Biden and Bernie last night. So here's what I put in today:
To Win Presidency
Trump -160 to win 6.5u
This bet combined with my other Trump bets put my overall position at around -130 with big volume; to win 12 units or so. My strategy here is that I've been adding Biden and Bernie for the past 5 months or so, nibbling up good prices when I can and now I'm sitting on quite a big exposure to a Dem win. So getting in on Trump here will give me a HUGE nice and chunky free roll when the election comes. My plan is to put 'at risk' on Trump about as many units as Ill have 'to win' on Biden. So I'll end up with a free roll; if Dems win Ill break even, and if Trump wins Ill win huge. And I'm getting in on Trump at -160ish now because A) its the best price I can get and B) I think his price will only rise and rise as Biden increases his public exposure and says dumb shit and looks like a zombie like he always does. I think Biden is going to get wrecked in the debates too, so I don't think Trumps price is going to get any better. PredicitIt has him at -130 so I'm not exactly getting myself a great price. But it's the best I can get and I need to start adding some Trump exposure before the price gets even worse (he's at -200 or higher everywhere I have access to except for one book.) I'll be looking for any dips in the stock market or a Corona outbreak or anything that can be bad news for Trump and jump on him to win if his price dips below -160, -150. With all the Biden I have at great numbers (+500ish) I'll be able to really loosen the belt on Trump to win.
Biden +170 risk 2.5u
Getting both Trump at -160 and Biden at +170 today is so great. I mean it really has to be either of them. I think the market is a little low on Trump actually and I'll predict that his price is worse a week from now. We'll see!
Trump to win popular vote +300 risk 1u
Added a little bit more here. The market has this at around +150 currently.
Vice President
Warren +1250 risk 1u
Stacey Abrams +650 risk 1u
Kamala Harris +275 risk 2u
I now have a BIG payoff if Warren gets the VP nod (remember these are just bets I put in today. I still have all the pending ones I posted in my last blog). Biden has said recently that he's looking at a 'few different women' for his VP pick so that narrows is down a bit. If it's any female other than Kamala Harris Im golden as I have positions on Warren, Abrams and Klob-bot at really good prices. I added in Kamala today just for a little stop gap so that if she wins I don't get shut out as I have more at risk in the VP market than I initially wanted to.
Thats it for now, thanks again for stopping by. Next primarys are March 17th so I'll definitely have an update probably a couple days before if not before that. Dont forget to bookmark me and please let me know if youre liking this little blog I got goin here. See you soon!
A pretty wild Super Tuesday has come and gone and we got a lot of interesting results. It was basically all Joe Biden as he won every state he was supposed to, plus a couple surprises. Bernie just fell flat on his face and like my friend mentioned, the fact that Bernie AND Warren had poor nights is a very, very bad sign for Bernie. Because if Warren had a decent showing you could at least make the argument that she 'stole' a lot of Bernie votes which would go to him anyway if/when she drops out (well some would, anyway. The Bernie Bros arent exactly known for their rational thought). In quite a few states, like Virginia and North Carolina (among others), Biden actually beat Bernie AND Warren combined. So I think it was even a worse night for Bernie than it seemed. PredictIt has him at +455 (17%) right now to win the nomination which seems still too high to me, but then again crazier things have happened. But it looks like it's pretty clearly going to be Trump vs Biden for all the marbles in November.
Overall I had a decent night with a small profit but it was actually a little disappointing. I had some bet sizing mistakes that hurt and one bet in particular that I'm really kicking myself over. But the good news is I gained a TON of equity on just about every bet still pending, so let's dive in shall we?
California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. WIN
Biden +350 risk 1u. LOSS
No surprise here as the Peoples Republic of Fecal-Covered California went with Bernie.
+1.5 units
Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. WIN
Biden +300 risk 1u. LOSS
Same as CA.
+2 units
Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u LOSS
Biden +225 risk 1u WIN
This was a bit of a surprise as Bernie was a -376 favorite the night before, but I did remark that it seemed strange to me and a lot of late money came in on Biden. As is the case on most of these, my 'Bernie hedged with Biden' strategy ended up paying off nicely.
+.25 units
Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3 units LOSS
Biden +200 risk 1u WIN
This one was a bit of a shocker as everyone had Bernie winning. I even said in my last post that my only regret was not betting more on Bernie. That's why I almost always trust to the market over my personal thoughts. But the big story here is Liz Warren coming in an abysmal 3rd place in her home state. She'll drop out soon and becomes an interesting VP candidate... More on that later.
+.75 units
Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u LOSS
Biden +300 risk 1u WIN
This was the state that made my night go from good to just ok. BAD bet sizing. I was fine up until Tuesday when I got Bernie at -500 to win 1u. Really horrible bet. Just awful. From what I can gather, Biden was basically punting Minnesota but the Klob-bot drop out and endorsement changed everything. I got a little greedy with the -500 bet and paid for it. I actually didn't even realize how over exposed I was here on Bernie. Just bad all around!!
-4.17 units (yuck!)
North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u LOSS
Another over bet. Too high of a bet for an underdog, plus the market beat me, PLUS no Biden hedge! Again, little bit of greed, little bit of not paying enough attention. Cant happen!
-2 units
Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u LOSS
Bad bet, didnt beat the market again on this one and lost. Only 1.25 units at least
-1.25u
Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u WIN
Really liked this bet as I snuck it in right after the big Biden surge late Tuesday afternoon. Glad I went in for unit double bet too. I actually had another unit sized bet ready to go at +170 but chickened out.
+3.4 units
Virginia
Biden -285 to win 1u WIN
I was nervous about an upset here but Biden won HUGE.
+1 unit
OVERALL: +1.48 UNITS
So 'unit won wise' it was an OK night that really should have gone better. The -500 Bernie Minnesota bet was the real killer. Thats a 6 unit swing if Bernie could have pulled it out. However, I'm pleased with the results as I was initially really heavy on Bernie and was using my Biden positions as a hedge. I was basically in the position that if Biden didn't surge on Tuesday and Bernie ran the table (which was the favorite to happen as late as Tuesday morning) I would have cleaned up big time with my Bernie bets. But Biden came on strong late Tuesday so I was able to add some more Biden at good prices and turn a small profit. It was nice watching the news knowing that I was free rolling and ending up in the green with either Biden or Bernie having a good night.
But the bigger news for me here is how much better a lot of my pending bets have become. While everything Bernie is all but dust, my Biden positions have obviously improved drastically, and some of the prices I got are crazy. Biden to win the nominee at +208 risking 5 units (which means to win over 10 units) is boner-inducing, especially with the market at -316(!) now. My 'anyone but bernie' to win Illinois at +250 and Ohio at +185 are both unreal with both markets putting Biden as heavy favorites. Same thing with Wyoming where I have Biden at +400 and the market is at -212. Or how about Arizona? I snuck in an 'anyone but bernie' at +650 and Biden is at -335 now! (All these bets were posted on my last blog post, obviously.)
So you can see what I'm talking about when I write about these wild price changes in politics. It leaves SO much room to get in and gobble up equity. And it's not like sports where the window to beat the market is literally a couple seconds; some of these lines were so far off-market for hours. Some even days! Come on in boys, the water is fine!
Moving on, I did put in some more bets today after the big shake up from last night. It's always a good idea to cruise around and check prices EVERYWHERE when a big change happens, like it did for Biden and Bernie last night. So here's what I put in today:
To Win Presidency
Trump -160 to win 6.5u
This bet combined with my other Trump bets put my overall position at around -130 with big volume; to win 12 units or so. My strategy here is that I've been adding Biden and Bernie for the past 5 months or so, nibbling up good prices when I can and now I'm sitting on quite a big exposure to a Dem win. So getting in on Trump here will give me a HUGE nice and chunky free roll when the election comes. My plan is to put 'at risk' on Trump about as many units as Ill have 'to win' on Biden. So I'll end up with a free roll; if Dems win Ill break even, and if Trump wins Ill win huge. And I'm getting in on Trump at -160ish now because A) its the best price I can get and B) I think his price will only rise and rise as Biden increases his public exposure and says dumb shit and looks like a zombie like he always does. I think Biden is going to get wrecked in the debates too, so I don't think Trumps price is going to get any better. PredicitIt has him at -130 so I'm not exactly getting myself a great price. But it's the best I can get and I need to start adding some Trump exposure before the price gets even worse (he's at -200 or higher everywhere I have access to except for one book.) I'll be looking for any dips in the stock market or a Corona outbreak or anything that can be bad news for Trump and jump on him to win if his price dips below -160, -150. With all the Biden I have at great numbers (+500ish) I'll be able to really loosen the belt on Trump to win.
Biden +170 risk 2.5u
Getting both Trump at -160 and Biden at +170 today is so great. I mean it really has to be either of them. I think the market is a little low on Trump actually and I'll predict that his price is worse a week from now. We'll see!
Trump to win popular vote +300 risk 1u
Added a little bit more here. The market has this at around +150 currently.
Vice President
Warren +1250 risk 1u
Stacey Abrams +650 risk 1u
Kamala Harris +275 risk 2u
I now have a BIG payoff if Warren gets the VP nod (remember these are just bets I put in today. I still have all the pending ones I posted in my last blog). Biden has said recently that he's looking at a 'few different women' for his VP pick so that narrows is down a bit. If it's any female other than Kamala Harris Im golden as I have positions on Warren, Abrams and Klob-bot at really good prices. I added in Kamala today just for a little stop gap so that if she wins I don't get shut out as I have more at risk in the VP market than I initially wanted to.
Thats it for now, thanks again for stopping by. Next primarys are March 17th so I'll definitely have an update probably a couple days before if not before that. Dont forget to bookmark me and please let me know if youre liking this little blog I got goin here. See you soon!
Monday, March 2, 2020
Politics Betting
This was actually my main reason for starting this blog. I finally had access to an account this year that has tons of political markets and I've completely run out of places to bet NHL props, so I got into politics trading pretty heavily for this election. I ended up with tons of positions and with Super Tuesday tomorrow and a lot of the bets getting settled soon it seemed like a perfect time. Plus in all honesty, betting on politics is a lot of fun and a different animal altogether than betting on sports. There seems to be a bevy of emotion involved and a lot of crazy price changes which are both always good things for a trader. The fundamentals are of course the same; information is money and you need either to be faster than everyone else, have information the market doesn't (insider info) or be able to process public information better than the market. But with politics as opposed to sports, you're holding positions for weeks and months at a time and it's interesting watching the market react to news and polls. It's probably similar to stock trading. Also, certain sports books kind of just throw up political markets without much thought or attention so the lines can be juicy, and since I seem to be the only person on these sites betting politics, they can STAY juicy for a while. I honestly didn't really realize how soft political betting is before this year so it's certainly something I'll be looking to get into a lot more going forward.
Without further ado, here is my complete list of all political positions as of today along with the current market price according to predictit.com (I'll be using predictit.com's price as the 'market price' for anything politics unless otherwise noted.) Every single thing here or anywhere else on this blog is a bet that I personally have, and if you don't believe me we can always bet on it!
{Last note if youre a complete n00b; odds expressed with a plus in front of them mean its an underdog. The number is how much youll win if you risk 100. So for example, +400 means if you risk 100, youll win 400 if you win and lose 100 if you lose. Vice versa for odds with a minus sign in front. -400 means youre risking 400 to win 100. So the bigger the number, the more of an underdog or favorite it is).
...ok so there was a little bit of ado. NOW, without ANY more ado...
Presidential Winner
Bernie +900 risking 1u (1 unit). Market price: +270.
Boom right off the bat a HUGE edge. You'll see that I jumped on Bernie pretty early and got in at a terrific price here and in other markets.
By the way, I'll do the math one time on my expected return here so you can have a better understanding going forward. If we say 1 unit = $100, my bet is +900, or risking 100 to win 900. The market for a Bernie win (god help us) is +270 which translates to 27%. That means I win $900 27% of the time and lose $100 73% of the time. So the EV (expected value) is 900 * .27 (which equals $243), minus 100*.73 (which equals 73) for $170 on $100 risked, or 170% ROI.
That is a cartoonishly huge edge, and it was actually about 10% better this morning before Klobachur and Mayor Pete dropped out which we'll get into later. (I wont be doing much math like that since its boring as fuck but I just wanted to show how to do it one time. But if youre a trader with any kind of seriousness, you need to be able to do that to figure out the value of your positions in real dollar amounts.)
Biden +450 risking 1u. Market price: +355.
I ended up taking lots of positions like this; lots of Bernie and then hedged with some Biden. This bet was actually pretty bad up until today where Biden has surged big time almost everywhere. I basically thought the Dem nomination was going to either Bernie or Biden and I tried to get on them at good prices all over the place. Beat the market here again pretty good but not nearly as much as the Bernie bet.
Republicans +100 risk 3u. Market -127.
This was actually really just a hedge since I'm way exposed to a Democrat win but it ended up being a really good bet on its own. My only regret here is not taking off my belt and absolutely unloading on this. It sat around a coin flip until impeachment started. Then it started to drift in favor of Trump and then took another big jump after the Iowa caucus debacle/low turnout (Democrats seemingly love shooting themselves in the foot). I am looking to add some more Trump/Republicans to win it all though. The best price I can get now though is -170 which I dont love.
Democratic Nominee
Biden +208 risk 5u. Market +138.
Ive been locked into Biden at +275 for weeks which was meh. But he SURGED today all the way to currently +138 and I was able to get down a bunch more at +180 which makes my whole position +208 but with heavy volume. The 5 unit risk doesnt mean that I love this bet so much so as its a hedge against all my Bernie positions.
Bernie +475 risk 1.15u. Market +100
See how ridiculous some of these lines are? Another Biden or Bernie position. You can see here that if its either of them I win no matter what.
Democratic Vice President Nominee
Liz Warren +2000 risk 1u. Market: +733
Not much here. Just took some nibbles on the VP market. I don't have any strong feelings and this market has been fairly static before today, just crushing anything off market.
Klobuchar +875 risk 1u. Market +566 (and running)
Klob-bot surged today in the VP market with her dropping out of the presidential race. I got in at +750 a while ago and JUST got +1000 today (somehow?) before my book adjusted her odds after she dropped out.
Tammy Baldwin +3500 risk .4u. Market +1567
Little nibble scratch ticket. I don't expect anything here but it was just too good of a price to pass up.
Primaries
Now we get into primaries. These are fun since they move all over the place and they get settled early, way before the election so I dont have credit/money tied up all year.
California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. Market -1567
Biden +350 risk 1u. Market +1328.
These bets are super old but this is pretty much all sewn up. Of course those dirty hippies way out there are going with Bernie. I like what I did overall though by taking Bernie for 2 or more units everywhere and hedging with Biden for 1 unit or so. The only risk was something like a Bloomberg or Mayor Pete super run but I wasnt worried about that, really. This felt like Bernie or Biden all the way and it looks like that was the right call.
Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. Market: -1567
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market +1328
Almost the same exact thing as CA. It usually isnt this easy, I swear.
Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u. Market: -376
Biden +225 risk 1u. Market: +426
This ones a little bit strange since it was all but over with Bernie winning but Biden has steamed up over 12 cents today. But as you can see with my strategy, as long as its either of them I'm fine.
Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3u. Market: -335
Biden +200 risk 1u. Market +1566
This has been Bernie since the get-go. Warren tried to make some noise with it being her home state but she never really had a chance and topped out at around 30%. Only regret here is not betting more on Bernie.
Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u. Market: -376
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market: +426
Klob-bot was actually the favorite here all the way until today when she dropped out and Bernie surged big time. I got Bernie at -145 a while ago and -500 (for some reason) today. This again is a two horse race and I win with either of them.
Almost all of the above bets were made weeks, if not months ago. The rest I mostly put in very recently so you may actually be able to get some of these prices.
North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market +257
Ahh. My first real blunder on here. This has been in the bag for Biden forever but his price dropped BIG today while Bernies shot up. I got in at +250 when the market was around +150 but it turned around and went the other way. Looks like a fake move that I fell for possibly or some poll I didnt know about. Either way its not great, especially risking 2 units. Bad Poogs!
Illinois
Anyone But Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market: -125ish
Right back on track! Put this one in today actually as all things Biden were shooting up big time all across the board. Right now Biden is -112 to win so getting in at +250 for 2 units is NICE. Good Poogs.
Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u. Market +270
Similar to North Carolina, fell for a little fake out I think. Dont like it but not a big deal, luckily only 1.25 units.
Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u. Market: +117
This was today again part of my big Biden buy as he surged everywhere. Looks like Im going to end up with lots of Bernie and Biden positions at really good plus odds. Not a bad spot to be in.
Virginia
Biden -285 to win 1u. Market: -455
This was all Bernie until about a week ago where Biden really shot up. Lots of talk about bad polling here though and Bloomberg is supposedly spending a lot of money late and having some town hall thing (like literally right now). This will be interesting to watch.
Wyoming (caucus)
Biden +400 risk 1u. Market: +163
Bidens price has gone up big here in the past 5 hours or so. I dont know a whole lot here, just that it was too good of a price to pass up for a nibble. Of course its a caucus so who knows what will happen. Hopefully it takes less than a MONTH this time to get results, but no one has ever gone broke betting on Democratic bureaucrats to be ineffective and inefficient at something.
Ohio
Anyone But Bernie +185 risk 1.5u. Market -150ish.
Another monster edge I got today from The Biden Surge. See? These books are just asleep at the wheel! Current odds: Biden -138, Bernie +104.
Arizona
Anyone But Bernie +650 risk 1u. Market +150ish.
See above. Right now Bernie is at -150 and falling and Biden is at +160 and climbing. Getting +650 here is just absurd. Absurd I tell you!
Other random nibbles
Republicans to win popular vote +215 risk 1.5u. Market: +163
This one is interesting and has moved all over the place. I dont have much analysis to add but +215 is nice and chunky enough to get on board. Dont love the sizing though, 1.5u is a little too much here.
Bloomberg to win Presidency +1500 risk .25u. Market +3233.
AWFUL bet. No idea what I was thinking. I actually like Bloomberg and personally if it came down to him vs Trump Id have a real decision to make. I actually think hed be a really good president to be honest. But either way +1500 is laughably bad. Yuck.
Hilary Clinton Dem Nominee +3000 risk .12u. Market +4900.
See above. I jumped on this thinking she might swoop in and scoop up all the moderates since the whole Dem party looks like such a clown show right now, plus she was on Howard for 2 hours not promoting anything, but its not looking good now. Risking only less than half a unit on this and Bloomberg and you have to take these long shots now and then but I hate these two bets. Lighting money on fire.
So thats it for politics, for now at least. I'll for sure be picking up more political positions and Ill post them here as quick as possible.
My first blog post and my first real foray into political betting. I have no idea if anyone's even reading so if you made it this far, please give me a comment on anything at all! Dont be afraid to ask questions too, Ill respond to anything I can. Thanks for reading and make sure to check back soon. Super Tuesday is tomorrow so Ill update with results for a lot of these as soon as theyre graded, maybe as soon as tomorrow. Bye for now!
Without further ado, here is my complete list of all political positions as of today along with the current market price according to predictit.com (I'll be using predictit.com's price as the 'market price' for anything politics unless otherwise noted.) Every single thing here or anywhere else on this blog is a bet that I personally have, and if you don't believe me we can always bet on it!
{Last note if youre a complete n00b; odds expressed with a plus in front of them mean its an underdog. The number is how much youll win if you risk 100. So for example, +400 means if you risk 100, youll win 400 if you win and lose 100 if you lose. Vice versa for odds with a minus sign in front. -400 means youre risking 400 to win 100. So the bigger the number, the more of an underdog or favorite it is).
...ok so there was a little bit of ado. NOW, without ANY more ado...
Presidential Winner
Bernie +900 risking 1u (1 unit). Market price: +270.
Boom right off the bat a HUGE edge. You'll see that I jumped on Bernie pretty early and got in at a terrific price here and in other markets.
By the way, I'll do the math one time on my expected return here so you can have a better understanding going forward. If we say 1 unit = $100, my bet is +900, or risking 100 to win 900. The market for a Bernie win (god help us) is +270 which translates to 27%. That means I win $900 27% of the time and lose $100 73% of the time. So the EV (expected value) is 900 * .27 (which equals $243), minus 100*.73 (which equals 73) for $170 on $100 risked, or 170% ROI.
That is a cartoonishly huge edge, and it was actually about 10% better this morning before Klobachur and Mayor Pete dropped out which we'll get into later. (I wont be doing much math like that since its boring as fuck but I just wanted to show how to do it one time. But if youre a trader with any kind of seriousness, you need to be able to do that to figure out the value of your positions in real dollar amounts.)
Biden +450 risking 1u. Market price: +355.
I ended up taking lots of positions like this; lots of Bernie and then hedged with some Biden. This bet was actually pretty bad up until today where Biden has surged big time almost everywhere. I basically thought the Dem nomination was going to either Bernie or Biden and I tried to get on them at good prices all over the place. Beat the market here again pretty good but not nearly as much as the Bernie bet.
Republicans +100 risk 3u. Market -127.
This was actually really just a hedge since I'm way exposed to a Democrat win but it ended up being a really good bet on its own. My only regret here is not taking off my belt and absolutely unloading on this. It sat around a coin flip until impeachment started. Then it started to drift in favor of Trump and then took another big jump after the Iowa caucus debacle/low turnout (Democrats seemingly love shooting themselves in the foot). I am looking to add some more Trump/Republicans to win it all though. The best price I can get now though is -170 which I dont love.
Democratic Nominee
Biden +208 risk 5u. Market +138.
Ive been locked into Biden at +275 for weeks which was meh. But he SURGED today all the way to currently +138 and I was able to get down a bunch more at +180 which makes my whole position +208 but with heavy volume. The 5 unit risk doesnt mean that I love this bet so much so as its a hedge against all my Bernie positions.
Bernie +475 risk 1.15u. Market +100
See how ridiculous some of these lines are? Another Biden or Bernie position. You can see here that if its either of them I win no matter what.
Democratic Vice President Nominee
Liz Warren +2000 risk 1u. Market: +733
Not much here. Just took some nibbles on the VP market. I don't have any strong feelings and this market has been fairly static before today, just crushing anything off market.
Klobuchar +875 risk 1u. Market +566 (and running)
Klob-bot surged today in the VP market with her dropping out of the presidential race. I got in at +750 a while ago and JUST got +1000 today (somehow?) before my book adjusted her odds after she dropped out.
Tammy Baldwin +3500 risk .4u. Market +1567
Little nibble scratch ticket. I don't expect anything here but it was just too good of a price to pass up.
Primaries
Now we get into primaries. These are fun since they move all over the place and they get settled early, way before the election so I dont have credit/money tied up all year.
California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. Market -1567
Biden +350 risk 1u. Market +1328.
These bets are super old but this is pretty much all sewn up. Of course those dirty hippies way out there are going with Bernie. I like what I did overall though by taking Bernie for 2 or more units everywhere and hedging with Biden for 1 unit or so. The only risk was something like a Bloomberg or Mayor Pete super run but I wasnt worried about that, really. This felt like Bernie or Biden all the way and it looks like that was the right call.
Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. Market: -1567
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market +1328
Almost the same exact thing as CA. It usually isnt this easy, I swear.
Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u. Market: -376
Biden +225 risk 1u. Market: +426
This ones a little bit strange since it was all but over with Bernie winning but Biden has steamed up over 12 cents today. But as you can see with my strategy, as long as its either of them I'm fine.
Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3u. Market: -335
Biden +200 risk 1u. Market +1566
This has been Bernie since the get-go. Warren tried to make some noise with it being her home state but she never really had a chance and topped out at around 30%. Only regret here is not betting more on Bernie.
Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u. Market: -376
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market: +426
Klob-bot was actually the favorite here all the way until today when she dropped out and Bernie surged big time. I got Bernie at -145 a while ago and -500 (for some reason) today. This again is a two horse race and I win with either of them.
Almost all of the above bets were made weeks, if not months ago. The rest I mostly put in very recently so you may actually be able to get some of these prices.
North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market +257
Ahh. My first real blunder on here. This has been in the bag for Biden forever but his price dropped BIG today while Bernies shot up. I got in at +250 when the market was around +150 but it turned around and went the other way. Looks like a fake move that I fell for possibly or some poll I didnt know about. Either way its not great, especially risking 2 units. Bad Poogs!
Illinois
Anyone But Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market: -125ish
Right back on track! Put this one in today actually as all things Biden were shooting up big time all across the board. Right now Biden is -112 to win so getting in at +250 for 2 units is NICE. Good Poogs.
Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u. Market +270
Similar to North Carolina, fell for a little fake out I think. Dont like it but not a big deal, luckily only 1.25 units.
Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u. Market: +117
This was today again part of my big Biden buy as he surged everywhere. Looks like Im going to end up with lots of Bernie and Biden positions at really good plus odds. Not a bad spot to be in.
Virginia
Biden -285 to win 1u. Market: -455
This was all Bernie until about a week ago where Biden really shot up. Lots of talk about bad polling here though and Bloomberg is supposedly spending a lot of money late and having some town hall thing (like literally right now). This will be interesting to watch.
Wyoming (caucus)
Biden +400 risk 1u. Market: +163
Bidens price has gone up big here in the past 5 hours or so. I dont know a whole lot here, just that it was too good of a price to pass up for a nibble. Of course its a caucus so who knows what will happen. Hopefully it takes less than a MONTH this time to get results, but no one has ever gone broke betting on Democratic bureaucrats to be ineffective and inefficient at something.
Ohio
Anyone But Bernie +185 risk 1.5u. Market -150ish.
Another monster edge I got today from The Biden Surge. See? These books are just asleep at the wheel! Current odds: Biden -138, Bernie +104.
Arizona
Anyone But Bernie +650 risk 1u. Market +150ish.
See above. Right now Bernie is at -150 and falling and Biden is at +160 and climbing. Getting +650 here is just absurd. Absurd I tell you!
Other random nibbles
Republicans to win popular vote +215 risk 1.5u. Market: +163
This one is interesting and has moved all over the place. I dont have much analysis to add but +215 is nice and chunky enough to get on board. Dont love the sizing though, 1.5u is a little too much here.
Bloomberg to win Presidency +1500 risk .25u. Market +3233.
AWFUL bet. No idea what I was thinking. I actually like Bloomberg and personally if it came down to him vs Trump Id have a real decision to make. I actually think hed be a really good president to be honest. But either way +1500 is laughably bad. Yuck.
Hilary Clinton Dem Nominee +3000 risk .12u. Market +4900.
See above. I jumped on this thinking she might swoop in and scoop up all the moderates since the whole Dem party looks like such a clown show right now, plus she was on Howard for 2 hours not promoting anything, but its not looking good now. Risking only less than half a unit on this and Bloomberg and you have to take these long shots now and then but I hate these two bets. Lighting money on fire.
So thats it for politics, for now at least. I'll for sure be picking up more political positions and Ill post them here as quick as possible.
My first blog post and my first real foray into political betting. I have no idea if anyone's even reading so if you made it this far, please give me a comment on anything at all! Dont be afraid to ask questions too, Ill respond to anything I can. Thanks for reading and make sure to check back soon. Super Tuesday is tomorrow so Ill update with results for a lot of these as soon as theyre graded, maybe as soon as tomorrow. Bye for now!
Hello and Welcome!
Well hello there! Welcome to my blog! Here I'll be discussing advantage gambling and all that it entails. I'll be posting any positions I have that I think are interesting and worth talking about as well other gambling related things I feel like blogging about. If you have any questions please ask and check back regularly as I will be updating often, at least once a week. In fact why don't we all take a second and bookmark this bad boy. Put it in your 'cool dudes sayin things on the computer' folder. Thank you for coming by and let me know if you like it!
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