Politics Betting

This was actually my main reason for starting this blog. I finally had access to an account this year that has tons of political markets and I've completely run out of places to bet NHL props, so I got into politics trading pretty heavily for this election. I ended up with tons of positions and with Super Tuesday tomorrow and a lot of the bets getting settled soon it seemed like a perfect time. Plus in all honesty, betting on politics is a lot of fun and a different animal altogether than betting on sports. There seems to be a bevy of emotion involved and a lot of crazy price changes which are both always good things for a trader. The fundamentals are of course the same; information is money and you need either to be faster than everyone else, have information the market doesn't (insider info) or be able to process public information better than the market. But with politics as opposed to sports, you're holding positions for weeks and months at a time and it's interesting watching the market react to news and polls. It's probably similar to stock trading. Also, certain sports books kind of just throw up political markets without much thought or attention so the lines can be juicy, and since I seem to be the only person on these sites betting politics, they can STAY juicy for a while. I honestly didn't really realize how soft political betting is before this year so it's certainly something I'll be looking to get into a lot more going forward.

Without further ado, here is my complete list of all political positions as of today along with the current market price according to predictit.com (I'll be using predictit.com's price as the 'market price' for anything politics unless otherwise noted.) Every single thing here or anywhere else on this blog is a bet that I personally have, and if you don't believe me we can always bet on it!

{Last note if youre a complete n00b; odds expressed with a plus in front of them mean its an underdog. The number is how much youll win if you risk 100. So for example, +400 means if you risk 100, youll win 400 if you win and lose 100 if you lose. Vice versa for odds with a minus sign in front. -400 means youre risking 400 to win 100. So the bigger the number, the more of an underdog or favorite it is).

...ok so there was a little bit of ado. NOW, without ANY more ado...

Presidential Winner

Bernie +900 risking 1u (1 unit). Market price: +270.
Boom right off the bat a HUGE edge. You'll see that I jumped on Bernie pretty early and got in at a terrific price here and in other markets.

By the way, I'll do the math one time on my expected return here so you can have a better understanding going forward. If we say 1 unit = $100, my bet is +900, or risking 100 to win 900. The market for a Bernie win (god help us) is +270 which translates to 27%. That means I win $900 27% of the time and lose $100 73% of  the time.  So the EV (expected value) is 900 * .27 (which equals $243), minus 100*.73 (which equals 73) for $170 on $100 risked, or 170% ROI.

That is a cartoonishly huge edge, and it was actually about 10% better this morning before Klobachur and Mayor Pete dropped out which we'll get into later. (I wont be doing much math like that since its boring as fuck but I just wanted to show how to do it one time. But if youre a trader with any kind of seriousness, you need to be able to do that to figure out the value of your positions in real dollar amounts.)

Biden +450 risking 1u. Market price: +355.
I ended up taking lots of positions like this; lots of Bernie and then hedged with some Biden. This bet was actually pretty bad up until today where Biden has surged big time almost everywhere. I basically thought the Dem nomination was going to either Bernie or Biden and I tried to get on them at good prices all over the place. Beat the market here again pretty good but not nearly as much as the Bernie bet.

Republicans +100 risk 3u. Market -127.
This was actually really just a hedge since I'm way exposed to a Democrat win but it ended up being a really good bet on its own. My only regret here is not taking off my belt and absolutely unloading on this. It sat around a coin flip until impeachment started. Then it started to drift in favor of Trump and then took another big jump after the Iowa caucus debacle/low turnout (Democrats seemingly love shooting themselves in the foot). I am looking to add some more Trump/Republicans to win it all though. The best price I can get now though is -170 which I dont love.


Democratic Nominee

Biden +208 risk 5u. Market +138.
Ive been locked into Biden at +275 for weeks which was meh. But he SURGED today all the way to currently +138 and I was able to get down a bunch more at +180 which makes my whole position +208 but with heavy volume. The 5 unit risk doesnt mean that I love this bet so much so as its a hedge against all my Bernie positions.

Bernie +475 risk 1.15u. Market +100
See how ridiculous some of these lines are? Another Biden or Bernie position. You can see here that if its either of them I win no matter what.


Democratic Vice President Nominee

Liz Warren +2000 risk 1u. Market: +733
Not much here. Just took some nibbles on the VP market. I don't have any strong feelings and this market has been fairly static before today, just crushing anything off market.

Klobuchar +875 risk 1u. Market +566 (and running)
Klob-bot surged today in the VP market with her dropping out of the presidential race. I got in at +750 a while ago and JUST got +1000 today (somehow?) before my book adjusted her odds after she dropped out.

Tammy Baldwin +3500 risk .4u. Market +1567
Little nibble scratch ticket. I don't expect anything here but it was just too good of a price to pass up.


Primaries

Now we get into primaries. These are fun since they move all over the place and they get settled early, way before the election so I dont have credit/money tied up all year.

California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. Market -1567
Biden +350 risk 1u. Market +1328.
These bets are super old but this is pretty much all sewn up. Of course those dirty hippies way out there are going with Bernie. I like what I did overall though by taking Bernie for 2 or more units everywhere and hedging with Biden for 1 unit or so. The only risk was something like a Bloomberg or Mayor Pete super run but I wasnt worried about that, really. This felt like Bernie or Biden all the way and it looks like that was the right call.

Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. Market: -1567
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market +1328
Almost the same exact thing as CA. It usually isnt this easy, I swear.

Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u. Market: -376
Biden +225 risk 1u. Market: +426
This ones a little bit strange since it was all but over with Bernie winning but Biden has steamed up over 12 cents today. But as you can see with my strategy, as long as its either of them I'm fine.

Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3u. Market: -335
Biden +200 risk 1u. Market +1566
This has been Bernie since the get-go. Warren tried to make some noise with it being her home state but she never really had a chance and topped out at around 30%. Only regret here is not betting more on Bernie.

Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u. Market: -376
Biden +300 risk 1u. Market: +426
Klob-bot was actually the favorite here all the way until today when she dropped out and Bernie surged big time. I got Bernie at -145 a while ago and -500 (for some reason) today. This again is a two horse race and I win with either of them.

 Almost all of the above bets were made weeks, if not months ago. The rest I mostly put in very recently so you may actually be able to get some of these prices.

North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market +257
Ahh. My first real blunder on here. This has been in the bag for Biden forever but his price dropped BIG today while Bernies shot up. I got in at +250 when the market was around +150 but it turned around and went the other way.  Looks like a fake move that I fell for possibly or some poll I didnt know about. Either way its not great, especially risking 2 units. Bad Poogs!

Illinois
Anyone But Bernie +250 risk 2u. Market: -125ish
Right back on track! Put this one in today actually as all things Biden were shooting up big time all across the board. Right now Biden is -112 to win so getting in at +250 for 2 units is NICE. Good Poogs.

Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u. Market +270
Similar to North Carolina, fell for a little fake out I think. Dont like it but not a big deal, luckily only 1.25 units.

Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u. Market: +117
This was today again part of my big Biden buy as he surged everywhere. Looks like Im going to end up with lots of Bernie and Biden positions at really good plus odds. Not a bad spot to be in.

Virginia 
Biden -285 to win 1u. Market: -455
This was all Bernie until about a week ago where Biden really shot up. Lots of talk about bad polling here though and Bloomberg is supposedly spending a lot of money late and having some town hall thing (like literally right now). This will be interesting to watch.

Wyoming (caucus)
Biden +400 risk 1u. Market: +163
Bidens price has gone up big here in the past 5 hours or so. I dont know a whole lot here, just that it was too good of a price to pass up for a nibble. Of course its a caucus so who knows what will happen. Hopefully it takes less than a MONTH this time to get results, but no one has ever gone broke betting on Democratic bureaucrats to be ineffective and inefficient at something.

Ohio
Anyone But Bernie +185 risk 1.5u. Market -150ish.
Another monster edge I got today from The Biden Surge. See? These books are just asleep at the wheel! Current odds: Biden -138, Bernie +104.

Arizona
Anyone But Bernie +650 risk 1u. Market +150ish.
See above. Right now Bernie is at -150 and falling and Biden is at +160 and climbing. Getting +650 here is just absurd. Absurd I tell you!



Other random nibbles

Republicans to win popular vote +215 risk 1.5u. Market: +163
This one is interesting and has moved all over the place. I dont have much analysis to add but +215 is nice and chunky enough to get on board. Dont love the sizing though, 1.5u is a little too much here.

Bloomberg to win Presidency +1500 risk .25u. Market +3233.
AWFUL bet. No idea what I was thinking. I actually like Bloomberg and personally if it came down to him vs Trump Id have a real decision to make. I actually think hed be a really good president to be honest. But either way +1500 is laughably bad. Yuck.

Hilary Clinton Dem Nominee +3000 risk .12u. Market +4900.
See above. I jumped on this thinking she might swoop in and scoop up all the moderates since the whole Dem party looks like such a clown show right now, plus she was on Howard for 2 hours not promoting anything, but its not looking good now. Risking only less than half a unit on this and Bloomberg and you have to take these long shots now and then but I hate these two bets. Lighting money on fire.


So thats it for politics, for now at least. I'll for sure be picking up more political positions and Ill post them here as quick as possible.

 My first blog post and my first real foray into political betting. I have no idea if anyone's even reading so if you made it this far, please give me a comment on anything at all! Dont be afraid to ask questions too, Ill respond to anything I can. Thanks for reading and make sure to check back soon. Super Tuesday is tomorrow so Ill update with results for a lot of these as soon as theyre graded, maybe as soon as tomorrow. Bye for now!