Super Tuesday Results

Primary results, Bye Bye Bernie, Sleepy Joe back from the dead, VP race starts to heat up and more!


A pretty wild Super Tuesday has come and gone and we got a lot of interesting results. It was basically all Joe Biden as he won every state he was supposed to, plus a couple surprises. Bernie just fell flat on his face and like my friend mentioned, the fact that Bernie AND Warren had poor nights is a very, very bad sign for Bernie. Because if Warren had a decent showing you could at least make the argument that she 'stole' a lot of Bernie votes which would go to him anyway if/when she drops out (well some would, anyway. The Bernie Bros arent exactly known for their rational thought). In quite a few states, like Virginia and North Carolina (among others), Biden actually beat Bernie AND Warren combined. So I think it was even a worse night for Bernie than it seemed.  PredictIt has him at +455 (17%) right now to win the nomination which seems still too high to me, but then again crazier things have happened. But it looks like it's pretty clearly going to be Trump vs Biden for all the marbles in November.

Overall I had a decent night with a small profit but it was actually a little disappointing. I had some bet sizing mistakes that hurt and one bet in particular that I'm really kicking myself over. But the good news is I gained a TON of equity on just about every bet still pending, so let's dive in shall we?

California
Bernie -180 to win 2.5u. WIN
Biden +350 risk 1u. LOSS

No surprise here as the Peoples Republic of Fecal-Covered California went with Bernie. 
+1.5 units


Colorado
Bernie -135 to win 3u. WIN
Biden +300 risk 1u. LOSS

Same as CA. 
+2 units


Maine
Bernie -135 to win 1.5u LOSS
Biden +225 risk 1u WIN

This was a bit of a surprise as Bernie was a -376 favorite the night before, but I did remark that it seemed strange to me and a lot of late money came in on Biden. As is the case on most of these, my 'Bernie hedged with Biden' strategy ended up paying off nicely.
+.25 units


Massachusetts
Bernie +110 risk 1.3 units LOSS
Biden +200 risk 1u WIN

This one was a bit of a shocker as everyone had Bernie winning. I even said in my last post that my only regret was not betting more on Bernie. That's why I almost always trust to the market over my  personal thoughts. But the big story here is Liz Warren coming in an abysmal 3rd place in her home state. She'll drop out soon and becomes an interesting VP candidate... More on that later.
+.75 units


Minnesota
Bernie -287 to win 2.5u LOSS
Biden +300 risk 1u WIN

This was the state that made my night go from good to just ok. BAD bet sizing. I was fine up until Tuesday when I got Bernie at -500 to win 1u. Really horrible bet. Just awful. From what I can gather, Biden was basically punting Minnesota but the Klob-bot drop out and endorsement changed everything. I got a little greedy with the -500 bet and paid for it. I actually didn't even realize how over exposed I was here on Bernie. Just bad all around!!
-4.17 units (yuck!)


North Carolina
Bernie +250 risk 2u LOSS

Another over bet. Too high of a bet for an underdog, plus the market beat me, PLUS no Biden hedge! Again, little bit of greed, little bit of not paying enough attention. Cant happen!
-2 units


Oklahoma
Bernie +250 risk 1.25u LOSS

Bad bet, didnt beat the market again on this one and lost. Only 1.25 units at least
-1.25u


Texas
Biden +170 risk 2u WIN

Really liked this bet as I snuck it in right after the big Biden surge late Tuesday afternoon. Glad I went in for unit double bet too. I actually had another unit sized bet ready to go at +170 but chickened out.
+3.4 units


Virginia
Biden -285 to win 1u WIN

I was nervous about an upset here but Biden won HUGE.
+1 unit


OVERALL: +1.48 UNITS

So 'unit won wise' it was an OK night that really should have gone better. The -500 Bernie Minnesota bet was the real killer. Thats a 6 unit swing if Bernie could have pulled it out. However, I'm pleased with the results as I was initially really heavy on Bernie and was using my Biden positions as a hedge. I was basically in the position that if Biden didn't surge on Tuesday and Bernie ran the table (which was the favorite to happen as late as Tuesday morning) I would have cleaned up big time with my Bernie bets. But Biden came on strong late Tuesday so I was able to add some more Biden at good prices and turn a small profit. It was nice watching the news knowing that I was free rolling and ending up in the green with either Biden or Bernie having a good night.

But the bigger news for me here is how much better a lot of my pending bets have become. While everything Bernie is all but dust, my Biden positions have obviously improved drastically, and some of the prices I got are crazy. Biden to win the nominee at +208 risking 5 units (which means to win over 10 units) is boner-inducing, especially with the market at -316(!) now. My 'anyone but bernie' to win Illinois at +250 and Ohio at +185 are both unreal with both markets putting Biden as heavy favorites. Same thing with Wyoming where I have Biden at +400 and the market is at -212. Or how about Arizona? I snuck in an 'anyone but bernie' at +650 and Biden is at -335 now! (All these bets were posted on my last blog post, obviously.)

So you can see what I'm talking about when I write about these wild price changes in politics. It leaves SO much room to get in and gobble up equity. And it's not like sports where the window to beat the market is literally a couple seconds; some of these lines were so far off-market for hours. Some even days! Come on in boys, the water is fine!

Moving on, I did put in some more bets today after the big shake up from last night. It's always a good idea to cruise around and check prices EVERYWHERE when a big change happens, like it did for Biden and Bernie last night. So here's what I put in today:


To Win Presidency 

Trump -160 to win 6.5u

This bet combined with my other Trump bets put my overall position at around -130 with big volume; to win 12 units or so. My strategy here is that I've been adding Biden and Bernie for the past 5 months or so, nibbling up good prices when I can and now I'm sitting on quite a big exposure to a Dem win. So getting in on Trump here will give me a HUGE nice and chunky free roll when the election comes. My plan is to put 'at risk' on Trump about as many units as Ill have 'to win' on Biden. So I'll end up with a free roll; if Dems win Ill break even, and if Trump wins Ill win huge. And I'm getting in on Trump at -160ish now because A) its the best price I can get and B) I think his price will only rise and rise as Biden increases his public exposure and says dumb shit and looks like a zombie like he always does. I think Biden is going to get wrecked in the debates too, so I don't think Trumps price is going to get any better. PredicitIt has him at -130 so I'm not exactly getting myself a great price. But it's the best I can get and I need to start adding some Trump exposure before the price gets even worse (he's at -200 or higher everywhere I have access to except for one book.) I'll be looking for any dips in the stock market or a Corona outbreak or anything that can be bad news for Trump and jump on him to win if his price dips below -160, -150. With all the Biden I have at great numbers (+500ish) I'll be able to really loosen the belt on Trump to win.

Biden +170 risk 2.5u

Getting both Trump at -160 and Biden at +170 today is so great. I mean it really has to be either of them. I think the market is a little low on Trump actually and I'll predict that his price is worse a week from now. We'll see!

Trump to win popular vote +300 risk 1u

Added a little bit more here. The market has this at around +150 currently.

Vice President

Warren +1250 risk 1u
Stacey Abrams +650 risk 1u
Kamala Harris +275 risk 2u


I now have a BIG payoff if Warren gets the VP nod (remember these are just bets I put in today. I still have all the pending ones I posted in my last blog). Biden has said recently that he's looking at a 'few different women' for his VP pick so that narrows is down a bit. If it's any female other than Kamala Harris Im golden as I have positions on Warren, Abrams and Klob-bot at really good prices. I added in Kamala today just for a little stop gap so that if she wins I don't get shut out as I have more at risk in the VP market than I initially wanted to.


Thats it for now, thanks again for stopping by. Next primarys are March 17th so I'll definitely have an update probably a couple days before if not before that. Dont forget to bookmark me and please let me know if youre liking this little blog I got goin here. See you soon!