I want to do a fairly basic primer for NFL betting and take a dive into teasers, specifically NFL 6 point teasers, AKA Wong Teasers. I meant to post this when the playoffs started but unfortunately didn't get around to it. This will be helpful to anyone who bets for fun to hopefully make you at least lose less if not actually turn a profit.
First off, it is amazing how bad the average bettor is. I was a bookie for a while in a past life, and you really can't believe how bad the vast majority of bettors are. Getting the worst possible number, buying points for no reason, teasing NBA totals, action reverses, parlays, teasers at -120 (or worse) odds...the list goes on. It's the equivalent of someone playing blackjack who has a loose understanding of the rules. Even if you play perfect blackjack, you're expected to lose something like 2% of every dollar you risk. But if you're hitting 18s and staying put on 9's because 9 is your favorite number or something, you're obviously going to lose a lot quicker. That's what most people are doing when they bet. If the market says a team is +3 +103, and you bet it at +3 -110, you're already behind. Now let's say you buy 2 points because buying points is fun. Those points should cost something like 35 cents, but you pay 50 cents! Now you're REALLY behind. So hopefully this post can help you or someone avoid things like that.
If you're going to bet on anything, you must first learn the importance of line shopping. Getting the best possible number/odds is the most important aspect of betting straight bets (unless you're at the very top of the pyramid, in which case you generally want to get the most amount down on everything. For this discussion we're leaving the syndicate guys out). If you're betting at -110 lines (which you shouldn't be but most everyone is), you need to win 52.4% of the time to break even. If you can hit 55% you can make retirement money. Think about what that means, winning 52.5 out of 100 games versus winning 55 out of 100. You have to turn 1.5 games out of 100 from losses into winners. Or a couple pushes into winners. And think about all the 1 or two point or half point losses you'll have out of 100 games. Getting that extra half point or paying -105 instead of -110 is really the name of the game.
So that brings us to a natural question; how do I know the "true line"? Where is this market? There really is no set answer to this, but the best answer is simple; check pinnacle. Ive talked about it before, but Pinnacle Sports if an offshore book that is basically considered the best. They're the market maker. They take the highest bets, have the lowest juice, and generally don't kick people out. Some people may quibble over this, some books are right up there and it does depend on the market, but for anything with high liquidity, such as any NFL game, you should consider the Pinnacle line the line to beat. Oh and you have to beat the juice too. So what you do is take the vig out of Pinnacles line, and that is basically considered the true line. You beat this line, in the long run you will make money. If you don't, you will lose. (Again, we're talking about high liquidity, aka big games. This doesn't apply to small stuff like props).
You really should be betting with this as the goal. However, I realize this isn't feasible for most people, so you should try to get as close to this line as possible. Always check pinnacle before making a bet and have at least two different sports books. I like to have at least 10 accounts going at once but you have to have at least two if you're going to betting any kind of money at all.
One good little nugget if you're just betting for fun; look for what I like to call the 'pinny stopper'. Sometimes pinnacle will make a game -111 when the rest of the market is at -110. This is them basically saying we don't want anymore action on this. That can be a good bet if you have to make a bet.
Remember, you're betting numbers, not teams.
OK so let's look at teasers. There is actually a very specific teaser you can make that has historically been +EV. If I were forced to bet on the NFL with one account and couldn't find off market bets, the only bets I would make would be this teaser. And I don't mind talking about it and 'giving away the secret' because the secret has been out for a long time.
A while back, this math professor named Stanford Wong wrote a book and he talked about an exploit he found betting on the NFL. Specifically, 6 point teasers where you 'capture' both the 3 and the 7. They're called Wong Teasers and you can read all about them for the math of it, but the simple explanation is this. Football is unique in that points are not scored 1 or 2 at a time, but generally 3 or 7 points at a time. A teaser is a bet where you're essentially doing a parlay and buying points. But since not all points are created equal in football, you can actually tilt the odds in your favor if you tease the right games.
So what games are we looking for. You want underdogs at +1.5 to +2.5, and favorites at -7.5 to -8.5. If a team is an -8.5 favorite, you tease them 6 points down to -2.5. You go through, or 'capture' both the 3 and the 7. Since so many games land on exactly 3 and 7, you capture enough win probability to win long term AT -110 OR BETTER ODDS. This is hugely important and cannot be overstated. When Wongs book came out and before these were well known, you could find 6 point teasers for as good as +110! I remember hammering a book around 2012 that had them at +105. Books did adjust and nowadays you really have to look to find anything better than -110. If you find a place that does -105 or even odds, you're in great shape. I actually had a book this year that had them at even odds for a while but changed to -110 mid season. (However, one lesser known thing; 3 teamers at +180 is really good too and you can still find these some places. Most have gone to +160 which isn't great, but any time you get a new sports book, always check out their odds for 2 and 3 team 6 point teasers.)
Now here's the catch, apparently. People always get greedy and include teams that are close to, but are not true Wongs. You have to capture the ENTIRE 7 or 3. You can't tease a team from +3 to +9, or -9 to -3. You must get the entire point.
Personally, and especially since the XP point moved back, I like to play these only if they're perfect. For example, if the whole market has a team at +1, I'll hunt for a +1.5 to tease it to +7.5. Or same thing, if the market is -9, -9.5, I'll hunt for a -8.5 to tease to -2.5. Also, check your books rules for pushes. Some count them as losses, some count as pushes.
If you play these perfectly, you'll almost certainly make money. It's as close to a robotic, plug and play sports betting system that actually works. Yet people consistently cannot stay disciplined with these. They include totals (which is HORRIFIC by the way), they tease NBA games, they tease only TO the 3 or 7 and not through it. If you can stay the course, you can have fun betting and make money!
So that's about it for today. I'll be posting more often again so be on the lookout.
