Well, it's official. Officially official. My career as "semi-pro" handicapper is over. I haven't made any money on props for almost two years now and my volume has dropped to just about zero. I'm still involved in sports betting, I've still never had a losing year, I still manage/operate multiple accounts (something I can't quite get into here) and I'll probably always bet stuff like team totals, off market straights, teasers and I'm always on the lookout for correlated parlays. But what I've always considered to be actual sports betting; modeling/handicapping, creating and improving models, I do think that is done for me.
There are two major reason why. Number one, I just don't have the time or the will to dedicate to it anymore. I used to fucking LOVE it. Seeing a book release it's props for the day used to be like taking a hit of something. It was all I thought about, all the time, and I was good at it. Now I'm married, have a kid on the way and a real career. You can't just pop in once or twice a week for a couple hours and beat these props anymore. Like anything else worth doing, it takes a lot of time to manage accounts, create models, tweak them, follow lineup changes and rule changes, who got pushed off the power play, who's injured, etc. It's a lot.
When I first started, no one even knew what a prop was. Season long fantasy sports were just starting to really take hold, but daily fantasy was still over a decade away. I used to handicap props with pen and paper, spend maybe two hours a day, and turn a profit. I didn't even start using excel until after I moved back from Las Vegas. But right around the time daily fantasy became a thing, suddenly everything changed. Everyone was interested in player props and the lines got way, way sharper. And that's reason number two. I HATE to admit it, but I just can't beat em anymore. I know a few guys that do/did what I do and everyone is pretty much in the same boat. It really was free money for a while and part of me knew that it couldn't last.
So with that being said, it feels like a good time to detail my "career", how I started, how it all went and some lessons and wisdom I've gleaned from it over the years. Let's get into it. Little bit of story time...
It all started with poker. No one in my family or friends was remotely interested in poker, so it wasn't like I was around it when I was young. The first time I remember being interested in poker was watching an episode of The Shield. They were playing cards, drinking, having fun and I thought damn, that looks fun as hell. So I got some of my friends into it and we played little friendly home games, trying to figure out the rules. I slowly learned and read books and got better and better and started playing online (Party Poker!). I'd play in local VFW tournaments and always did pretty good.
When I got to college, I met a group of kids who had a small little weekly dealer choose friendly game. That got me into the scene a little bit and there were a few kids who were decent and took it seriously. I eventually morphed that game into a real weekly $1/2 no-limit game at my apartment, ran it well, and I ended up running that game my entire time at college. I had professional dealers, $1 drinks and even girls giving massages for a while (which, by the way, was the official line. There's something brutally awkward about girls that you know giving massages who aren't masseuses). Eventually we got a real solid group of regular players, some that didn't even go to college. I raked max $4 a hand and also played in the game. Running and playing in that game was honestly the most fun and rewarding thing I think I've ever done that also made me money.
I met a lot of people I wouldn't have otherwise and some of them had a pretty profound impact on me. There was one group of older Spanish guys who were regulars who were absolute hustlers. They had a friend who wrote a script for ticketmaster and were able to buy up tickets quick for stuff right when they came out (mind you this is well over 10 years ago). They'd rent out computer labs and have rooms full of people just typing in captchas. They had a Tickle Me Elmo scheme where they bought garages full of these things before they were huge for one Christmas and made a ton re-selling them. The schemes weren't exactly my style, I like to try to bring a little value to people in whatever I'm doing, but I admired their hustle. They were day traders too and I learned a lot about the Fed and why their press conferences were important. There was another guy who came who was a real pro poker player and it was cool just to see him operate. I learned so much from that game. It was kind of like the education I was supposed to be getting in class.
Through that game, I eventually met someone who we'll call Jay. One thing that always bothered me growing up was that I was always looking for someone who operated the way I did. I was always hustling, I had all kinds of little "businesses" (I even had a little 'record label' at one point) and money making schemes, but I could never really find a partner. Even with the punk band I was in in high school, it always felt like I was kind of dragging everyone around me into whatever I was doing. I was dying to meet someone who'd approach ME with something.
I knew right away that Jay was that guy. He was like a version of me but from a different town, and I know he felt the same way. We got pretty close in college and I found out he was a bookie. Or, more precisely, trying to be a bookie. He was pretty degen which will come into play later on, but he introduced me to the world of sports betting and PPH books and taking action.
So college comes and goes. The poker game dies out once I graduate, but me and Jay stay in touch. I became a "bookie" by myself for a while, taking action over the phone, and that eventually morphed into teaming up with Jay onto his book as well as buying up a couple of local smaller bookies. So we had a pretty decent sized sports book going. He handled the people, I handled the lines and the money. We were two young kids chasing guys all over the place for money and we always let everyone believe that were just agents working for some big scary boss man. But it really was only us the whole time.
And let me tell you, being a bookie is a nightmare. The nuts and bolts of it are brutal. The lies, the complaining, the nonsense, it's way too much. Ever had a grown man cry to you? When you're like 20 years old? It's uncomfortable. But I did get very valuable information from it. Everyone knows that the average sports bettor loses, but to actually see it from the bookie side is different. You honestly cannot believe how bad the average person is at betting. It always used to astound me how it seemed like people were actually trying to lose. If you just bet straight bets, you're betting -110 on something that should be even odds (generally, of course.) That's bad enough. But most people just have to add to it. They do parlays with no regards to price or odds, they buy random points, they get the worst number possible, they tease stuff like basketball totals. I could go on and on. I'm not kidding, it was shocking to sit there and watch the bets come through. I remember putting teasers from -110 to -120 and having absolutely no drop off in action.
But that was one of my first light bulb moments. Instead of looking at it like I was the house "taking" bets, I looked at it like I was the one making the bets. I was simply getting the opposite of what the customers were betting. So if someone bet the Patriots at -7.5 -110, I looked at it like I had the bet of whoever the Pats were playing at +7.5 +110. And for some reason that really clicked with me. Instead of waiting around for these deadbeats to "give me bets," I could find them myself.
Around this time I stumbled upon a pretty obscure message board for sports bettors. It was a sub forum of a poker forum and for whatever reason, this little message board was where some of the absolute top level guys in sports betting hung around and talked about beating sports (for you youngins, before social media, message boards was where everyone hung out online and traded information). I got pretty immersed and engaged in it, read every book I could find, every post from the top guys. It's AMAZING how much free information is out there if you know how to look. And one of the books I got from those forums was "Attacking Las Vegas" by Justin7 (that was his username, I forget his actual name). In that book he outlines how to price a couple different props. And that was all I needed, really. I took that logic and just applied it to other props/sports and those little examples in that obscure book became the genesis for just about every model I ever made.
I became obsessed with being a professional gambler. It really was my singular focus. I was scooping up all the low hanging fruit around me. All the kids who called themselves bookies and gave out lines over the phone I absolutely obliterated. I'd destroy one guy and then have him get me an account with someone else and cut them in. I had a BoDog account that I ran up from a $500 deposit to over 13k before they threw me out. I mean, I really was doing it.
Around 2009, my friend and I moved to Las Vegas. I told everyone I was going to play poker, which was true, but my main focus was betting sports. Maybe one day I'll go into detail into my Las Vegas excursion, but it only lasted a year. I wasn't even keeping track of my results back then but I pretty much broke even after expenses out there. I never had to work and lived fine, but I wasn't growing my bankroll. I learned a lot out there, of course, but the main thing I learned was that I didn't want to live there and do that forever. Las Vegas is kind of depressing. Every single atom out there is trying to separate you from your money. There's no roots, no one is from there, no one really knows each other, people come and go like nothing. Between the non stop bachelor parties and the slot zombies giving away their pensions one spin at a time, it didn't feel like home to me. At all.
So around 2011 I moved back to MA thinking that I was pretty much done with advantage gambling. Little did I know though, that was really the beginning of my sports betting career. The years between 2011 and about 2016 were the top of my sports betting/poker days. I finally started keeping really good weekly records (which you 100% have to do if you're at all serious about this) and put everything onto excel. I had killer prop models for all 4 major sports and hooked back up with Jay. I kept a tiny piece of the sports book but that was mostly his thing. We had a great system though where he would get me all these amazing PPH accounts but have me betting. He'd handle collecting and the bookie thought it was him betting, but it was really me. And it was great because he was a really outgoing, sociable kid with a reputation for being a bit of a degenerate gambler but someone who *almost* always paid. He definitely always lost though so people couldn't wait to give him accounts.
Some of the stuff that happened in those years was really funny looking back. The first local guy I remember literally putting out of business was this kid who took action on his phone. He didn't know anything about hockey so he was giving me NHL totals at -110 both sides. You might realize, lots of times these lines are priced at something like -250 or worse. So I'm getting -110 on stuff that should be -220. That lasted a while before he figured it out.
Another time I remember using this guy who worked with my friend at a car dealership. He gave out a line of +6 on some Alabama football game when the market was +2.
The stuff I got away with with correlated parlays was borderline obscene. I had one book with a beefy credit limit, something like 20k a week, and they took correlated parlays (I'm going to call them CP's from now on). I would max bet every single CP, both sides, full game AND first half. That lasted for a while until one day the bookie, mad and confused as to why I kept winning, tried to copy my bets. The place he tried to use wouldn't let him, obviously, and he finally figured it out.
I had an account with a huge scary looking guy who used to run security for Godsmack. I had to give him my ID in a creepy bar to get the account. I beat him up on props for a while and when he gave me the boot, I told him what I do and I cut him in. He got me a few accounts after that that lasted for years.
I got a guy to give me 25% off of WEEKLY losses.
I found businesses in Lawrence that are secretly bookies who take CP's, and I've had some Spanish speaking friends go with me to translate. The tickets are all in Spanish, it's pretty funny. It's so hard to get the bets in that I want through the kid translating that it isn't even worth it anymore though.
I've been threatened by "the mob" (which was bullshit), I've paid people to collect for me, I've had lots of money 'stolen' from me from people not paying when I win. Honestly I could go on and on. I have a terrible memory too so I know there's stuff I'm forgetting. The days of running around getting my own accounts was pure whackiness.
I played poker throughout this time too and would go to Foxwoods for a couple nights at a time about once a week. I got pretty good at a fairly niche limit game down there and that was a great way to break up the monotony of being in front of my computer all the time and keep my poker skills sharp.
Eventually Jay's demons caught up to him and things blew up pretty spectacularly. He had to "go away" for a while so I ran his book myself for a month or so until I just literally could not take it anymore. I think I just gave it up, I don't remember selling it or anything. Being a bookie really is a hard way to make an easy living and was so not my style honestly.
As the scammers and dead beats came and went, I did eventually fall in with a really solid couple of groups who I've worked with for almost a decade now. The cream really does rise to the top. In this scene, tons of people come and go and if you ever stiff someone, it's over for you. So the guys that last, last for a reason. I get accounts now and don't have to deal with any nonsense from either side. I pay for it by having to give up more equity than normal but it's a trade off. I have a good thing going now that is way less work and stress but still keeps me involved.
Anyway, like I said, the handicapping has been drying up for awhile now. The first prop market I ever learned how to beat was NFL sacks. For whatever reason, I've always done well with them and really enjoy betting them. NHL shots on goal is a close second. And I'm down on both for over a year now. This years NHL playoffs was sort of my last hope. My last attempt at real modeling and it has not gone well at all. If I can't beat NHL shots on goal, especially at playoff time, it's probably time to pack it in. So what have we learned? Well, if I had to make a quick list...
1) KEEP RECORDS. That is rule number one. You must keep track of what you're doing if you're doing this at all seriously. All you really need is money won/lost too. I separate everything so I know how I'm doing in, say, football props vs teasers vs straight bets, and I keep track of my overall ROI, but all you really need when you're starting out is weekly win or loss. Do it every Monday, make a little sheet in excel. It's fun. I guarentee that no matter what the results are after a month or two, you'll be surprised.
2) STOP BETTING STRAIGHTS. You are not going to win betting straight bets. Period. You gotta stop. Start with the smallest limit markets and go from there.
3) DON'T MAKE THE BOOKIES LIFE EASIER. Stop betting parlays! Seriously. Same with buying points. And learn how to bet NFL teasers. You can learn about Wong teasers in literally 5 minutes.
4) IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOUR EDGE IS, YOU DON'T HAVE ONE.
5) KNOW AT WHAT PRICE YOU WOULD TAKE THE OTHER SIDE. This is a good one. If you'd bet "your team" at any price, you're a sucker. Being a sucker is ok but only if you know you're a sucker.
Another thing is that you don't really choose to "go pro." It isn't like one day you're not a pro and one day you are. For me, I was just working less and less and betting more and more until I was barely working at all (I did usually keep a real job but for a while I was working like 10 or less hours a week). It's a cool feeling when you have a solid year or two under your belt and you realize, hey, I really am a professional gambler.
I do have two major regrets about all of it though. The first one is that I wish I had taken it all more seriously (which is a bit odd for me since I generally take everything too seriously). I always felt like a little bit of an imposter, like I wasn't REALLY a pro sports bettor, and I'm not even sure why. I should have learned about excel and databases way earlier and way more in-depth. I took some free online courses about modeling and statistics, but I didn't really take them seriously. And then towards the end I actually had a little bit of the opposite problem. Once I had like 5 solid years behind me, I thought anything I touched would be profitable. I did some dumb things that I should have pulled the plug on way sooner. I thought I could model team totals better than the market which never worked. I beat my head against the wall trying to beat some obscure props for way too long when I should have stuck with what worked. I for sure should have at least tried to make some money with daily fantasy.
My second regret is not being better with the money. I'm generally pretty good with it, I'm not one of those guys that it just burns a hole in their pocket. And I did save and have a really good chunk for a long time. But I so should have bought property or a laundromat or something. Some passive income. I could have honestly probably set myself up, not for life, but pretty close. Oh well.
Overall though I look back very fondly of those days. The first few years were absolute craziness. I really wish I had this blog back then. I can't even imagine the stuff I'm forgetting. And even though it didn't last forever, I never really expected it to. I think I did better and lasted longer than anyone would have expected when I started.
So that is just about it with sports betting. Crypto trading now scratches that itch for me and that and stocks will be the main focus here going forward.
Thanks for reading! Check back soon I will have some crypto stuff up.
