As I've alluded to many times in here, almost all of my action is on PPH sites. PPH stands for pay per head. These are sites that aren't official offshore sports books like bovada or 5dimes or BetOnline or any other sports book you've heard of. PPH's are skins that anyone can rent and give out to customers. The upside to PPH's is that the lines are almost always way, WAY softer than offshore sites which makes them way easier to beat of course. But as any PPH basher knows, winning and collecting aren't the same thing. The downside to PPH's is that you have to basically just trust that you'll get paid/not fucked with and if/when it happens, there aint a lot you can do.
That came into play today when I was informed that all of my stock market bets on a certain book were deleted. Just like that. Pending bets gone. This is the kind of shit you deal with in PPH land unfortunately. It's the same book that I've put probably 80% of political bets in and still have over 40 units at risk in politics on there so I can't go scorched earth over getting the stock bets cancelled. It's really a tight rope act sometimes with these accounts. You can't let yourself get dunked on and not do anything about it ever, but you also can't go Rambo and fly off the handle about it. Especially when the agent owes you still AND you have a ton of pending bets that are clear winners. I'm not putting another dollar at risk on this account ever obviously and really keeping my fingers crossed about all the pending stuff. It sucks and it makes you feel like a sucker when shit like this happens, but you really have to remember that this is sort of the cost of doing business and bake that fact in when trading. What really sucks is when you do arbs and middles across different accounts and one gets deleted/stiffed and the others stay. It happens from time to time, it sucks, but you gotta just take it in stride and move on.
So I'll update my new stock market positions. For my personal record keeping, I always only count "money collected" and not "money won." My thought is that stiffs and deletions are all part of the PPH world and you need to factor it in. For this blog I'll track the results two ways; one will be the official result with what I actually collect and one will be the entire slate from yesterday. I'll count whichever is worse for my official record on here just to keep things as honest as possible.
UPDATED STOCK MARKET POSITIONS:
Amazon
o1750 -165 to win 1.25u
The u1825 +140 got deleted. This was the part of the middle that looked better on Sunday and I had over 2 units at risk. With the stock at 1928 now this actually looks like it'll work in my favor.
Clorox
u200 -155 to win 1.25u
This was a middle paired with o190. It's actually at 168.48 now so again, this may actually benefit me.
Google
o1100 +120 risk 1.25u
Another free money spot, I had u1100 +120 for over 2 units which was deleted. Sitting at 1120.77 now actually so again, it may work out even better.
Netflix
o350 +140 risk 1.25u
This was the polish middle where I had u345 at -116 risking over 3 units. Currently 357. See how dumb these bookies are? Even when they cheat they still can't figure it out.
Uber
o20 +125 risk 1.25u
This again was a middle where it looks like the deletion may help. I had u21.5 +110 for 1.5 units and the stock is actually all the way up to 26.
Disney
u87 -135 to win 1.12u - DELETED
Current price is 97. This guy really fucked himself. Good.
Costco
u310 -135 to win .75u - DELETED
Currently 285. Finally one that worked against me.
Facebook
u155 -110 to win .75u - DELETED
Current price is 160 but moving all over the place.
Zoom
o125 -120 to win 1.5u - DELETED
Currently at 138 so this one will definitely cost me.
The rest are ones where I rode naked on and are still pending. Lets check in:
Walmart
u132 -160 to win 1u
Currently 113.9 so looking real good.
Ceasers Ent.
o5+205 risk .75u
Currently at 6.2 so looking good here too. I'm starting to see a pattern emerge here and it's simply contrarian trading. Buying overs on stocks that everyone would assume would tank, like Ceasers, Uber and Live Nation, and buying unders on stocks that everyone would assume would go up, like Costco and Clorox. Of course, that wasn't my plan going in and not everything worked that way (Netflix and Zoom for example). I was just looking for arbs and middles and playing off of after hours trading. But it is interesting and something to keep in mind if I'm able to bet these again.
Hilton Hotels
o50 +105 risk .75u
Current price is 69.01. Another stock that you'd assume would crash and burn looks to be rebounding.
Live Nation
o27 +165 risk .63u
Currently at 42.43! Looks like Sunday MAY have been rock bottom for the market and we're in for a rebound. You never know what a stock is going to do though.
All in all the scumbag deletions may actually work in my favor. But like I said, for record keeping on here I'll go with whatever is worse for me. It's still early as these bets don't settle until Friday but so far so good. Very similar to my start in politics; the prices felt too good to be true and I'll probably kick myself later for not betting more, even though the limits are mostly tiny and I'm in for the max on a lot of these.
These bets will all do some damage to me long-term though. Sooner or later these books will have had enough and kick me out. Beating them up on random stuff like stock market special and politics gets you noticed pretty quick which is another thing you always have to consider when using PPHs. The more obscure the market, the easier it is to beat. But the flip side of that is that you stick out that much more and your leash gets shorter and shorter every week. Now especially with no sports on at all, I'm probably one of the only guys with any action at all on this guys board. It's already cost me an account with mister deletion, and I would not be shocked to have lost another account in the coming weeks.
Let's shift our attention though to the...
HOT DOG EATING CONTEST
Anyone who knows me knows that one of my all time favorite things to bet on has always been the 4th of July Nathans hot dog eating contest. Is there anything more American than betting cash on people stuffing their faces with SEVENTY-PLUS hot dogs on the 4th of July?? I didn't think so. I've been following this contest for over a decade now and am probably in the top 10% worldwide with hot dog eating contest betting knowledge so listen up.
The original king of this was this Japanese dude named Kobyiashi. He won every year from 2002 to 2006. Then there was some controversy and he was banned from the official contest (but he still competed unofficially one year from a rooftop nearby the real contest which was bonkers.) In 2007 Joey "Jaws" Chestnut came onto the scene and has won every year since then, except 2015 which went to Matt Stonie. Chestnut seemed to put things in a different gear after losing in 2015. In 2014 he won with 61 dogs. Since 2016 hes gone from 70 to 72 to 74(!) to 71 last year, all wins. And he doesn't just win, he CRUSHES.
2016: Jaws 70, second place 53
2017: Jaws 72, second place 60
2018: Jaws 74, second place 64
2019: Jaws 71, second place 50
So not only does he win consistently, hes also way WAY ahead of everyone else. And Stonie seems to have been a flash in the pan. After winning with 62 in 2015, he has never gone above 53 in the years since and only ate 46 last year. So the competition is slim for Jaws.
You can get him at around -1100 now. I'm going to wait until closer to July but I'll almost certainly have a bet on him to win. One of the very few times where I dont think price matters a whole bunch. As long as youre close to the market price I think you have a good bet.
Here are my bets so far.
Mens over 72.5 hot dogs +125 risk 1u
He's absolutely capable of going over 72. I like betting this early as I think the line will increase as it gets more attention and I can maybe look to bet the other side and have a nice little hot dog middle come July 4th.
Women over 37.5 +110 risk 1u
I don't much like this bet but again, I think I'll be able to get a good under closer to game day and have a free middle.
Miki Sudo to win womens: -500 to win 1u
Miki Sudo to NOT win womens: +600 risk 1.5u
Let's talk Miki Sudo. She THINKS shes the female Joey Jaws Chestnut but her numbers have been fading recently. Shes won every year since 2014 but she topped out in 2017 with 41 dogs. In 2018 she won with 37 and then a big drop off last year to 31. Has she peaked? I'm betting she has. By doing the half scalp of -500/+600, my effective bet is risking .5u to win 4u, or +800. So I'm getting +800 instead of +600 just by doing the scalp. I sacrifice some volume (so you see where the EV takes a hit) but I make up for it by increasing my price (hence the bump to EG. Textbook example of a hedge helping EG but hurting EV).
I'll have A LOT more on the hot dog eating contest as we get closer to July but thats what I have thus far.
That's it for today, make sure to check back Friday or Saturday for a stock market update!
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