Overall I gotta say they did a pretty amazing job production wise so hats off to ESPN/the NFL. They had like 6 people on remotely through zoom and they weren't talking all over each other at all. I watched for the first hour or so and the whole thing was pretty seamless. It was cool seeing the owners and GMs at their houses in their little war rooms and seeing the players with their families reacting in real time was interesting too. And I actually liked the delay because everyone at home that you'd see didn't know they were on TV until like 30 seconds later so you could really see people in their natural habitat. Jerry Jones at home was exactly how I imagined; him sitting by himself on a big couch in a gigantic, empty hospital-looking room with his terrified-looking wife and son (I assume) making brief appearances to awkwardly half hug him after spending another first round pick on a fast wide receiver...just perfect. And I thought Goodell was actually pretty good too, albeit stiff as a board (*robot voice* "come on fans. lets hear it. you can boo harder than that. ha. ha. ha.")
So let's dive in and see how we did. Did we hit any middles? Did we get roasted on any polish middles? Did we make some money? Let's find out.
Georgia players drafted:
o1.5 -125 to win 1.5u W
u1.5 +140 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0
More PAC12 players over BIG12:
PAC12 +1 +180 risk .56u L
BIG12 -.5 -280 to win .5u W
This was a half middle where I was hoping to push the +1. It was close with it being 5 and 3 but they dont pay you for being close.
Result: -.06u
Clemson players vs Ohio St players:
Clemson: +.5 -140 to win 1.5u W
Ohio St: -.5 +155 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
Defensive players drafted:
u15.5 -145 to win 1.5u W
o15.5 +155 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
Defensive Backs drafted:
u6.5 -175 to win 1.5u W
o6.5 +200 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
ACC players drafted:
u2.5 +195 risk 1.5u L
o2.5 -190 to win 1.5u W
Result: 0u. Starting to regret not making some of these even arbs :(
Offensive Lineman drafted:
o5.5 -275 to win 1.5u W
u5.5 +300 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
Alabama players vs LSU players:
Bama -.5 +125 risk 1u L
LSU pk +230 risk .75u W
This was the polish middle where Id win if they picked anything other than the same amount, which luckily they did. LSU picked 5 and Bama picked 4 where was right around what was expected (lines for both schools were 5/5.5ish). So I consider this one a job well done.
Result: +.8u
LSU players drafted:
u5.5 -225 to win 1.5u W
o5.5 +245 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
Ohio St players drafted:
u2.5 -340 to win 1.5u L
o2.5 +400 risk 1.5u W
Finally a free roll that went my way. One of the juicier ones too.
Result: +.9u
Oklahoma players drafted:
u2 +145 risk 1.5 P
o2 -135 to win 1.5u P
Both pushed. Result: 0u.
First WR drafted:
Jeudy +115 risk 1u L
Lamb +120 risk .6u L
Absolute blunder. This was the only bet I made that I truly hated in hindsight. Henry Ruggs went first to the Raiders (of course). Either way, I definitely wasn't getting good enough numbers for this to be a good bet. Lost both. Bummer.
Result: -1.6u.
Justin Herbet draft position:
o5.5 -110 to win 1.5u W
u5.5 +125 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u.
I. Simmonds draft position:
u6.5 -115 to win 1.5u L
o6.5 +124 risk 1.5u W
I have the same bet but for more volume coming up. The numbers on this guy were all over the place on all my accounts, all the way up until the start of the draft too.
Result: +.14u
Offensive players drafted:
u15.5 +230 risk 1u L
o16.5 -140 to win 1u W
This was another polish middle where I'd only lose if it was exactly 16. The final number was 18 which was a LITTLE bit too close for comfort but I'm ok with this bet. Sizing could have been better though. I wish I went a little bit smaller on the over bet to lock in profit either way.
Result: 0u
QBs drafted:
o4.5 +380 risk .5u L
u4 +120 risk .5u P
Polish middle where I was betting on anything other than 4 QBs being taken. It was exactly 4 and I lost on it but that doesnt necessarily mean it was a bad bet. I could have got way better odds on the over bet though - I think I was seeing +500 late on Friday. So I don't think it was a great bet by any stretch but I don't think it was terrible either.
Result: -.5u
Clemson players drafted:
u1.5 +175 risk 1.5u L
o1.5 -165 to win 1.5u W
Result: 0u
Wide Receivers drafted:
u5.5 +210 risk 1.5u L
o5.5 -200 to win 1.5u W
Result: 0u
Draft spots:
Jordan Love
o15.5 -120 to win .5u W
Jerry Jeudy
o11.5 -150 to win .25u W
Ceedee Lamb
o14.5 +150 risk .25 W
These were nice (thanks Rsigley!)
Result: +1.13u
Clemson vs Oklahoma players
Clemson +.5 -190 to win 1.5u W
Oklahoma pk +155 risk 1.5u P
Bink! Nailed this one. Both were expected to pick around 2 and both picked exactly 2, so I pushed one and won the other. This one went exactly as planned which is always nice.
Result: +1.5u
Big 10 Players
o5 -165 to win 1.5u P
u5.5 +145 to win 1.45u W
Binkarooski! Here we go! 5 Big 10 players went round 1 so this one went exactly according to plan too. Only possible nitpick is that the under bet could have been slightly bigger but I was up against limits.
Result: +1.45u
Clemson Players
o1.5 -230 to win 1.5u W
u1.5 +300 risk 1.25u L
I was able to pull this arb off twice with two different accounts and at way different odds. This one was particularly juicy and I made sure to lock in profit no matter what.
Result: +.25u.
Linebackers
o3.5 +120 risk 1.45u W
u3.5 +105 risk 1.5u L
This where I switched to arbs instead of free rolls which I maybe should have been doing from the start.
Result: +.25u
ACC Players
o2.5 -305 to win 1.5u W
u2.5 +320 risk 1.45u L
Another arb I was able to hit twice with two very different lines.
Result: +.05u
Auburn Players
o1.5 +280 risk 1.4u W
u1.5 -240 to win 1.5 L
This one was pretty surprising with the juicy over hitting.
Result: +.32u
SEC Players
u15.5 -115 to win 1.5u W
o15.5 +125 risk 1.4u L
Result: +.1u
A. Thomas draft position
u10.5 -105 to win 1.1u W
o10.5 +120 risk 1.1u L
Result: +.06u
Okudah Draft Position
o4.5 +120 risk 1.5u L
u4.5 +100 risk 1.65u W
Result: +.15u
Chaison Draft Position
o16.5 -150 to win 1.5u W
u16.5 +160 risk 1.45u L
Result: +.05u
Pac 12 Players
o2.5 +155 risk .5u W
u2.5 -150 to win .5u L
Result: 0u
Tua Draft Position
u4.5 +220 risk 1u L
o3.5 -270 to win 1.5u W
This was one of the more interesting ones where I was really taking over 3.5 but bought back some with u4.5 for the half arb/middle. In hindsight I suppose I could have just rode naked on the over as there was really no chance at all of Tua going top 3 and he ended up going exactly where everyone thought - number 5 to the Dolphins. I'll take the half unit win here though, gladly.
Result: +.5u
Jeudy Draft Position
o12.5 +150 risk .9u W
u11.5 +115 risk 1u L
This was the polish middle where I win if went anywhere but 12. I was watching this live and thought for sure I was dead. The Raiders were at 12 and actually picked a WR! Luckily they went with Ruggs from Alabama and Jeudy went 15 to the Broncos. Living on the edge somewhat with this one but Ill take it!
Result: +.25u
I. Simmonds Draft Position
o6.5 +105 to win 2.9u W
u6.5 +125 to win 3.1u L
Same as the other Simmonds bet obviously but this one for more volume.
Result: +.33u
J. Love Draft Position
o18.5 -130 to win 1.5u W
u19.5 +130 risk 1.5u L
Result: 0u
So that's it! Final unit count: +6.07 units. Not bad at all; little bit better than I expected actually and I think I ran slightly bad on the free rolls.
So what did we learn? The biggest takeaway from this for me BY FAR is just how juicy this was. Really similar to politics this year; a market I'm somewhat new to with lines absolutely all over the place. I honestly can't think of a single event I've ever bet on with this many free arbs available (and for days.) Maybe the Superbowl with props/derivatives? I think the Superbowl usually has as many or more arbable bets but they're not as juicy. You might see lots of +105, +100 arbs for the Super bowl, but I mean I got +300/-230 on one of these and had plenty of fat 20-cent-plus arbs. On top of the cheap and free middles (I even had a clean free round middle with a 20 cent arb that I put in last minute and didn't count here. It was J Love draft spot: o18.5 -130 and u19.5 +150. I mean that is banana land crazy). So these lines were really out of whack. And yea, the limits are small but they're not exactly peanuts. This isn't big, normal straight-bet limits, but it isn't tiny hot-dog eating contest limits either.
I think my performance/analysis was fine too. Of course I could have spent more time analyzing for some of the polish middles and could have done more (any) research on the actual nuts and bolts of this draft, but I don't see many bets that I wouldn't have made looking back. The first WR off the board bet was obviously trash and the Tua bet was questionable. Take those out and I'm up another 2 units. But everything else was pretty solid in my opinion. And here's the thing; I probably spent 2-3 hours on this total, if that. I've spent more time blogging about it than anything. So yea, you can always spend more and more time on something but time is valuable. Every time you do something you're choosing not to do everything else. My 'hourly rate' on this was terrific and I feel really good about it. Are there other, more profitable (and time consuming) ways to go about betting on something like this? Of course. With the lines being so whacky, I'm sure there were plenty people with excellent draft expertise who really did their research and took positions on it and really cleaned up. Hats off to 'em! Plenty of ways to skin a cat (what an awful saying) and this is just my own way of ridding a cat of his skin (fur? What is skinning a cat exactly?)
Second takeaway is bet sizing (as usual). As you can see, a lot of the free rolls went against me. On the second day I started turning the free rolls into more evenish arbs and was able to pick up a good 1-2 units or so in loose-arb-change. I think on something like this in the future, I'll err more towards arbs and locking up profit no matter what instead of taking a side. I'll have to think about that more though.
So that is it for the 2020 NFL Draft. If you aren't really into all this with the unit counts and the bets and odds etc, I dont blame you. It isn't the most exciting content and most posts won't be like this. But thank you for reading either way and I'll be back discussing politics and political trading going forward. Next blog will be later today or tomorrow. I'm going to find a way to set up an email newsletter or something similar that people can sign up for and get notifications when there is a new post. Until then continue to check back and you can count on one post per week at the very least. Let me know what you think in the comments. Bye!
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