One thing I have always talked about on here is Arbing. But I've never really gone into depth with exactly what they are and how to do them. So let's do a little bit of that today, plus some other stuff. First post in a while.
I have always felt that, in general, people are terrible at explaining things. They tend to assume you know more than you do. The person having something explained to them also seems to have a very clear bias to show that they understand and not really ask questions. I think it's that deep-seated thing in us to not want to be outcast from a group. You want to nod along and not look stupid, even if the explanation is bad. You want to be part of the group that knows whatever is being explained. And I think sometimes the explainer ends up just trying to show off what they know and impress people instead of accurately and effectively communicating an idea. My Dad was always a terrible explainer so maybe this is just a me thing but it's something I've become a lot more aware of as I get older. All of this is to say that I'm going to take a thousand foot up approach here (and with most things) and assume you have never even heard the word "arb" before. To any professional or semi-pro bettor, this will be elementary. But it is good to go back to basics once in a while and make sure your foundation is solid.
So let's really look into Arbing, scalping, hedging and middling. All slightly different variations on the same theme.
"Arb" is short for arbitrage. Arbing refers to the practice of betting on both sides of an event and locking up profit, no matter what happens. You can do this in all different kinds of industries and in many different ways, but for today we'll keep it mostly confined to sports betting. Here's an example of a glaring arb. You're looking at various books' odds for an MLB game, Red Sox vs Yankees. One of your books has Red Sox -120, NYY +110. Another book has Red Sox -145, NYY +130. You can lock up money no matter what happens by betting on the Red Sox at the first book at -120 and the Yankees on the second book at +130. All you're looking for is for the plus number to be bigger than the minus number. That's it. Very simple.
However, it starts to get interesting when we start talking about exactly how much to bet on each side. Let's say each book has a $1000 limit. Let's say you bet 1200 to win 1000 on the Red Sox and 1000 to win 1300 on the Yankees. If the Sox win, you're even. If the Yankees win, you win $100. But what if you want to lock up the same amount of money, no matter who wins? You'd simply bet a little less on the Yankees. Something like 957 to win 1244. Now you win about $43, no matter who wins. (Notice in the first example there was $100 possible to win and the second one there is $86. Something to keep in mind). So far so good. This is easy stuff.
To me, arbing is when you take on no or very little risk. I would call both examples I just gave Arbs. You don't really care who wins. You have a clear position in the first example but you aren't risking anything in either.
Scalping, as I understand it anyway, is similar but you typically take on some risk. You semi-arb, or scalp, to get yourself better odds than just straight betting.
Let's use the same example above. Let's say you have an arb of BOS -120 and NYY +130. For any arb involving a game line, especially a major sport like MLB, one line is usually going to be off-market and the "+EV" line to bet. In this instance, let's say the +130 line is off market. If your roll justifies it and you don't mind the risk, the best play to make would be to max out the bad +130 line, suck up all the EV and move on. However, that isn't the case for everyone, all the time. If you don't really trust the market line, or if there isn't one, or it's far away from the game starting, or maybe you just need a win even. There's plenty of reasons to not simply just max out the bad line and do nothing else, even if your roll justifies it. However, if your roll does NOT justify a naked max bet, your choice is sort of made for you. Let's work through that real quick.
Let's say that with your bankroll, your max bet is $500. Let's use the same example above, a +130, -120 arb with a $1k limit on both sides. One option would be to simply bet $500 on the bad line and move on. So you'd have the Yankees risking $500 to win $650. This is what most people do. However, with just a little bit of creativity you can do even better. IF you only want to risk $500, the optimal thing to do here is max bet the bad +130 line. So you'd have $1000 to win $1300. You then 'scalp' out the amount you don't want to have at risk, in this case $500. So you bet $600 to win $500 on the Sox at -120. Now, if the Yankees win, you win 1300 and lose 600, for a net of 700. If the Sox win, you win 500 and lose 1000 for a net of 500. So your effective bet is NYY 500 to win 700, which is +140 odds. Isn't that a neat trick? So you're getting +140 (instead of +130) on something that should be +110. The more you scalp out, the better your effective odds are. However, the more you scalp out, the more EV you're leaving on the table, too. But this line of thinking sort of assumes that you can make enough bets like these to iron out the variance. And if you're a pro or even semi pro bettor with multiple years of sample, this will be true. But it isn't true for everyone. So don't be afraid to scalp. Remember, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Sometimes it's fine to just take the free money, reduce your risk, and sleep easy.
A little digression here; I WISH I would have done that for the past decades worth of Super Bowls. The Super Bowl is a great example of an event where you'll find all kinds of arbs, often even on the game lines. And sure, over the long run of like 20 years, you'll definitely show a better profit if you just ride naked on all the bad lines. But man, I cannot tell you how many times I've spent the full two weeks setting up absolutely incredible middles instead of taking the free arb money that just never hit. I would have been better off if I had just clean arbed every +3.5, -1 middle I set up.
Speaking of middles, middles are exactly what they sound like. You can technically middle anything by buying/selling points or betting a favorite on the money line and the dog on the spread. When I or anyone talks about setting up a middle, they mean a 'profitable middle'. You can get really creative with middles with money lines, spreads, teasers, parlays, etc. But every single -EV bet you make costs you money, even in a middle. Great thing to remember when thinking about setting up a middle: No combination of bad bets can ever equal a good bet. Something to always keep in mind.
To find a good middle, you almost always have to find an off market line. If not, then you need two slightly off market lines. I used to find juicy middles with team totals, full game and first half, all the time. Not so much anymore though. It seems to me that books finally caught on to the team total EV they were leaving lying around this year, by the way. But something like an NFL 21.5, -110 on the under and 20.5 -120 on the over is probably profitable. It's hard to know for sure to be honest. (Actually with a good database it wouldn't be that hard to figure out). But I always use pinnacles lines as a rough guess which is fine. Something I've done every Saturday for the probably the past two decades is pull up two books' college football lines, 1H and full game, and run down the team total lines for the entire day. You'll find plenty of middles on the 10 for the first half and 20-24 on the full game. And I usually do just clean middle them because how efficient is a first half team total market on some random college football game? It's hard to know which line is 'correct' because there probably isn't a 'correct' line. So you set up a middle or an arb and move on. That's something that absolutely every beginner bettor can and should do every week.
Arbing and middling have become my main thing now the past few years or so. Every week I hunt for something mispriced and max it out. If the max is more than I want to have at risk, which it usually is, I then hunt the other side and look for the best possible number(s) to scalp. One of my books has a massive limit so if the off market bet is on there, I'll have multiple thousands of dollars worth of bets to scalp out of it. I usually do some combination of an arb and a middle. I used to always go for the big middle but like I've said on here before, I have run cartoonishly bad on them that now I cleanly arb out of most of it, and will set up a small middle.
Here's an actual, real world example for TWO middles I actually hit last week (am I due this year!?) Last Sunday, looking over lines at the two PPH books I have right now, I noticed one of them put up -2.5 -110 for the Seahawks, who were playing the Patriots. The market line everywhere was an even -3 -110 (Pinnacle was -105 most of the day). So this is clearly a bet, and a really good at one that. So first thing I always do is refresh everything, make sure I'm not making a mistake. Sometimes, in some markets you have to be lightning fast to pick off arbs with things moving all over the place, quickly. This wasn't one of those times. This account does this sometimes. He'll move random games sometimes a full point or even more. This being the Pats home opener and me living in MA probably had something to do with it, but he moves random stuff all the time. Anyway, once I confirmed everyone was at -3, I maxed out Sea -2.5 -110. Now, believe it or not, but this account actually takes big bets. (I have never really quite figured this account out actually, to be honest. This is one of the very first accounts I ever got. It's from a dirty agent that I've worked with since the beginning on all different stuff. I slowly lost access to everything on this account except strictly straight bets. Props, team totals, futures, stock market bets, horse racing, video game bets, even live betting. I lost access to them each one by one over the years. But they let me bet straights and teasers, take big bets, and at least once a week, he'll move a number way into arb-able territory. I asked my agent why he did that and apparently it's because he wanted the lop-sided action because he had 'inside info' on these games. I was licking my chops when I heard that, however, I swear to God, after like three years of getting killed on these, I kind of think he actually does. I ran naked on these moves for so long and just got destroyed. Sometimes, by like, a lot. I know it doesn't make sense, how could this PPH guy possibly have inside information on an NBA or NFL game? But the numbers don't lie and this guy is really high up in the PPH ecosystem. After a good 2 or 3 years of getting killed on these moves, week after week, I mostly just arb or middle them out and take the free money. I know it sounds preposterous that this guy could be better than the market, but man, I don't know anymore. I cannot tell you how many times I've lied awake at night after a big loss on an absurd number I 'got in good' at, knowing I could have locked up money with an arb. Anyways, back to the example).
So I've got Sea -2.5 -110 for, let's say 10 units. And I really only want to be exposed for 2 units, 3 max. So I need to buy back about 7 units on the Patriots. It's important here to really line shop, you really need to get the best possible number on the scalp for this all to work. Access to Pinnacles lines is a must but I try to do even better than that. First, assess all your options, and understand you don't have to arb it out all at once place. If you want the clean arb, you can bet the Patriots at +2.5 at something like +123 at Pinnacle. You can lock up money on both sides or give yourself something like +140 odds using the example I gave above. Nothing wrong with that, but if you want a little action, a little spice, you can go for the middle or the semi-middle. You can bet the Patriots at +3 at the best price you can find, in my case it was -105, and hope Seattle wins by exactly 3. Your other option is a little counter intuitive but absolutely worth knowing. You can do a 'Polish middle' or 'heart-attack middle' where you would bet on something like the Patriots money-line at +140 as your hedge. Now you win both sides UNLESS Seattle wins by exactly 1 or 2. Then you lose both, hence the 'heart attack' moniker. It really all just depends on what you can get. If I found a good, off market number on the Pats money-line, that's what I would have done. Maybe not for all of it but certainly for some. Also, don't forget to look at alt spreads, especially at games that have moved a lot. You could hedge with something like Patriots -2.5 +160, even. What I call the 'holy grail' of middling or arbing is when you find +EV bets on both sides. That's the sweet spot.
What I did was bet the Patriots +3 -105 and accepted the middle and lo and behold, it actually hit. Seattle won with a walk-off field goal and my big Sea -2.5 won and my Pats +3 all pushed.
The other middle that I hit was Cin +7.5. Early in the week the line was moving around 6.5, 7, and pinnacle was at something like Cin +6.5 -105. The other book I had put up +7 even! I bought half a point for 10 cents (which is an exploit I heavily use at this book, the 10 cent half point buys off the 7) and got myself Cin +7.5 -110. I waited a couple days and hedged with Houston -6 -103 and Hou ended up winning by 6. It wasn't nearly as big as the Pats middle but two in one week! Maybe I am due for some positive variance.
Another thing to consider with middling/scalping is WHEN to bet. Sometimes I'll find something off market early in the week and will wait days to scalp it out. That's risky as the market can move against you, and sometimes you can arb out a little bit and then wait a couple days to arb out the rest of how much you want. The more you do it, the more you will start to develop a little bit of a 'feel' for the market and how it moves. Look at books who cater to different bettors and see where they differ. I always look to see what Bovada is at versus Pinnacle. That's a good indicator of square/sharp sentiment and where the market might drift towards.
Another thing I like to do with scalping/middling is with Wong Teasers. Sometimes I'll find a game that I really want to "Wong Middle" into. Something like a game where the spread at Pinnacle is +1, my book has +1.5, and the total is in the 30's (there's actually a couple of those games this coming week). I'll put that team into as many teasers as possible with teams playing later or earlier in the day. Then you bet on their opponent, either the money line for the big middle, or an alt spread of -6.5 or something. Or, let's say a Sunday night game is -9 everywhere. I'll be looking all week for one of my books to drop to -8.5 and put it in as many teasers as possible. Depending on how the day goes, you'll end up with a big position of that team at -2.5. You can then hedge with the opponent at +9, or maybe you find a 9.5 and buy up to 10.5 (buying through the 10 at 10 cents each half point is usually worth it). Or you can go for the Polish middle and bet the opponent at big plus odds on the money line if you find a good number. Or you do some combination of all of them.
An important thing to remember here though is that every -EV bet costs you money. Sometimes you can get a big middle going and you end up giving away a ton of your EV buying it all back. You have to be making +EV bets in the first place for any of this to work.
The key thing here though is pretty much the same thing we always come back to, which is getting soft PPH accounts. That really is the whole name of the game and everything pretty much flows from that.
I listened to a really good interview the other day on the "Circles Off" podcast. Here is the youtube link. It's with a guy who bets on futures for a living. Definitely worth a listen if you're into this kind of stuff. That podcast in general is decent if you don't know about it.
That's it for today I suppose. Check back soon, I should have some BTC stuff up.
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