Big VP Moves And Betting On The Lottery?

Lots of action in the VP market since my last post, a really good VP nugget and a terrific little little PPH find/exploit dealing with the lottery. Let's dive right in.

In my last post I detailed my case against Kamala Harris as VP. A few days after that Politico came out with an article basically saying that Kamala Harris was in the lead in the betting markets and that Biden had started the vetting process with her. None of this was news but nonetheless she got a big bump that day on Predict It, going from 28% to 38%. She slowly slid from there to 32% until Biden made his "you aint black" statement, which put her up to 34% currently. Klobuchar has been in second place. Her price dropped to 16% the day of the article and has drifted up to 20% currently.

After Biden's latest gaffe ("if you don't know if you're for me or from Trump then you ain't black"), I'm a lot less optimistic about Klobuchars chances. I think that the DNC was already afraid of alienating their minority base if they rolled out two old white people again - now with this latest comment I just don't see them picking a white woman from Minnesota who polls terribly among black voters. Of course, the other school of thought is that the left is so gung-ho against Trump that they'll vote Dem no matter what, and they should go with the midwestern white governor to capture undecided voters.

Even thought I think it'll be a terrible pick, I'm starting to think it will be Harris. Not just because of Biden's latest gaffe, but there's another really interesting reason. My little nugget for the day: Wikipedia. You can actually track politicians pages and see how often they get edited and by whom. In the run up to Tim Kaines VP announcement in 2016, his wikipedia page had a crazy amount of edits - way more than anytime previously and way more than the other people in the running. Well someone has looked into the wikipedia edits of the people in the running this time, and Kamala Harris has a lot more than anyone else. I don't want to post the link with the actual numbers but if you dig hard enough you can find it. It's like more than 4 times the edits as anyone else. And the person doing the editing seems to be a Biden staffer or at least connected to him in someway. Personally I think this is a pretty big find. I generally think that all public info is already imbedded into an efficient markets price, and I guess this wikipedia edit info is technically public information, but how many traders in this market do you think actually know that? That Tim Kaines wikipedia page was edited furiously in the lead up to his announcement, and now Harris's page is undergoing the same thing? I don't know the number and I could be wrong of course, but I wouldn't bet on more than half. So is it really factored into the line? Honestly I don't know. But I do know one thing; if Biden does end up picking Harris, then we can really look into this wikipedia edit thing as a leading indicator of all kinds of changes.

I still think the vetting process is going to be tough on Harris and all the things I said about her in my last post still apply. There is a LOT for Trump to go after if Biden picks Harris, but the sad thing is is that none of that may matter. The twitter/online mob seems to be fully behind Harris and there have been more than a few articles out since Bidens latest gaffe saying now his pick MUST be a black woman. It is starting to feel like Harris is squarely in the lead now. Not just because she's ahead in betting markets but in the media and everywhere online, too.

I got in on Harris at +175 risking 1.5 units the day of the Politico article, which is about break-even right now. That was the best I could get, now the only Harris I could find is +125 which is obviously way too low. I'll post a full update on everything I have in this market but it's basically the same: if it's Klobuchar or Warren I win a bunch, if it's Whitmer (which it won't be) I win a little, if it's Harris I lose a little, if it's Abrams, Baldwin or Grishman I lose about half of my total investment in this market, and anyone else I lose it all. I have almost the exact same amount at risk in this market as I have to win if/when Biden is officially named the nominee so in some sense it's a free roll. I'll continue to watch and be ready to pounce on the +125 if her prices shoots up again but like I said before, I'm basically standing pat here. Definitely learned some lessons in this market that I'll get into after the election.

Since my last post the betting opportunities available to me have slowly but surely dwindled down. That's why there hasn't been a post in a while; not much to post about. Really looking forward to sports starting back up again.

I had a good week on one account doing horse matchup arbs so that got shut off. Same with video game arbs at two places, and I got the stock sections shut down on another account. This is generally what happens; you find a good exploit, hit it hard for a couple weeks or months if you're lucky, it gets shut down (or you do) and you find another market or account and start it over again. However, this time I found something quite niche and something I've never even looked at before; the lottery.

One of my accounts offers bets on a local lottery drawing. It's really small and I've never seen it anywhere else so I don't mind explaining it. It's simple; they draw 5 balls from a pool of balls numbered 1 through 39. The bet offered is if the lowest number ball pulled will be over or under 5.5. Under is even odds. Well it doesn't take a math genius to figure this one out. The odds of any ball being 1-5 are 12.8%. Multiply that times 5 (since they pull 5 times) and you get 64%. I'm getting it at even odds! And it's actually even better than that since whatever ball they pull can't be pulled again. So as non 1-5 balls get pulled, the odds of a 1-5 ball coming through increase. That means my odds are even better than 64%. This is a huge edge and it's almost every day. I'm sure this too will get shut off fairly soon but it's nice in the meantime. This is the kind of stuff that I just love.

That's it for now. I found something that will let people sign up to get e-mails whenever I make a new post that I'll have ready for next time. Other than that have a good long weekend everyone, stay safe and check back soon!