NFL Week 3 Betting Recap Plus More

I had a decent Week 3 betting the NFL. Volume was down slightly but ROI was good and it put me officially and solidly into the black for the NFL this year so far, so let's take a quick look back at my action.

I only had one teaser left over from Week 2 which was the Patriots +7.5 paired with TB +8.5 for the MNF game. TB won outright and it wasn't a big bet so I just let it ride. Small but good start to the week.

The Thursday night game was MIA at BUF which closed at BUF -11. It opened at -13.5ish and I needed a leg to make some of my 2 teamers into 3 teamers, so I teased BUF from -13.5 to -6.5 (getting a 6.5 point teaser at -120). One the very few 'non Wong teasers' that I throw in here and there to throw the bookmaker off a little bit (he's already reacting to my Wongs which I'll get into later here). To be clear, teasing any NFL team from -13.5 to -6.5 is really bad. You're paying to cross a ton of useless numbers. Think about it, how many games are won by exactly 12 or 11 points? Or 9 and 8? I get the 10 and 7 which are good but this wasn't a good leg, even before the market moved against me. I did have good reasons for it though which I think in totality make it a +EV (or +EG) bet. Number one, the most flimsy reason being the one I just said. It throws the bookmaker off a little bit. By and large, this is usually not worth it. But this is a special PPH account that I've had forever and I know the agent and bookmaker do talk a lot about me (or the person they think is betting on this account, which would be a more accurate way to phrase that). I also killed him on Wong's last year so I'm sure he is looking at me. Number two, I had two more legs that I wanted to fire on for 6.5 point teasers and the odds for 3 teamers is better than 2 teamers. And lastly, because it was a stand alone game, I was able to fully hedge/middle it.

That is what I ended up doing, taking MIA +12.5 -110 on Draft Kings which was slightly off market. BUF won by 10 so I middled this one nicely. I also hit MIA +7.5 first half which was nearly arbable with Pinnacle when I made it. So a good start to the week though these bets weren't spectacular.

The 1:00 slate was busy for me. The other two legs of my BUF 6.5 point teaser bet were IND at a heavy -3 which I turned into +3.5 and PATS at +1 which I turned into +7.5. IND got bet all the way up to -6 somehow and covered easily. The Patriots game was like a fever dream. I was listening to it on the radio and it was almost comical how cursed they were. They turned the ball over FIVE times, twice in the Steelers red zone. I had their RB, Stevenson, to score a TD with some DK bonuses, and his second fumble of the game came from trying to score. That was a big swing as I thought for sure the Pats were going to blow +7.5. I bet PIT live a little bit at -3.5 for a small amount. PIT ended up winning by 7 exactly so this one worked out well but it was a rocky ride.

I had GB -2.5 in quite a few of my teasers. I got arbable numbers on CLE +8.5 and CLE ML so I ended up kind of turning those into my bets and using the teasers as my hedge. My only nightmare scenario was GB winning by 1 or 2. GB winning by less than a TD would have been absolutely ideal and it was bizarre following that game through the play by play. I'm sure you know what happened so no need to go over it. CLE won outright which was better than GB blowing them out, I think, but worse than GB winning by 8 or less.

I had HOU +7.5 small which I let ride. My book put up PHI -3 -130 instead of -3.5 so I did a 6.5 point teaser, turning that into a +3.5. I did that mostly because I wanted to pair it up with CHI +1, turning it into +7.5. I wanted THAT because I was heavy on DAL +7.5 already, so getting CHI +7.5 as my hedge was perfect. I ended up getting PHI +3.5 in quite a few teasers so I wanted to hedge it a little bit. I got LAR ML +172 which was a decent number. I came oh so close to binking this one, as the Rams had their game winning FG (to win by a perfect 2 points) blocked. This and the GB game both featured blocked, game winning field goals at the very end of the game which is quite rare. This is about as much whining about a bad beat as you're going to get out of me though. They work both ways and you only notice the bad ones.

Probably the most interesting thing I did on the 1:00 slate though was with the TB/NYJ game. Market was TB -6, 6.5, drifting towards TB. Draft Kings put up a juicy number on the Jets ML (+270) as well as NYJ +7, so it gave me an idea. I could bomb away on the Jets ML and a little at +7 and scalp out as much as I wanted to on a TB -.5 teaser. I ended up doing that for a big amount and the game ended perfectly with TB winning but NYJ +7 also covering.

The 4:00 slate was busy as well, as I had Wongs on every single afternoon game. DEN I teased up to +8.5 and bought back LAC -2.5 for a nice middle which hit. I got SEA -1.5 early in the week which was never in doubt. I did hedge a little bit with NO +7.5 and some more live which all lost. I had ARZ teased up to +7.5 and hedged with SF -2.5 at plus odds. Little too cute, SF won but only by 1. I almost bet SF ML instead of the -2.5 too, but the -2.5 was a slightly better bet.

DAL/CHI I already touched on briefly. I jumped on DAL +1.5 when it opened, teasing it to +7.5. (I love teasing a +1.5 opener for the reason I'm about to show). I put it as the last leg in quite a few 3 teamers so I had a lot of DAL exposure. As the game drew nearer and they were still live, I saw that DAL had taken a lot of money and moved from +1.5 to -1.5. You know what that means. The Holy Grail of Wong teasers and their hedges. This meant now I could bomb away on CHI +7.5 which is exactly what I did. If that game had been won by 7 or less by either team, it would have been an unreal week. CHI won in a blowout which wasn't ideal but I did end up having more on CHI.

The SNF game was quiet for me. I got a good number on the NYG ML, so I set up a small little KC +6, NYG ML middle which obviously didn't hit.

All in all, a good week. Put me up something like 5 units for the year. Nothing to write home about but this is the grind. Without doing any props or team totals this year, I'm able to really focus in on these Wongs and their hedges and so far with about 1.2 years worth of sample, the results have been encouraging. 

Looking ahead, tonight is SEA at ARZ and the market is at Sea -1, -1.5, -125 ML. Roughly. Bovada has SEA -2. My PPH book, however, has put up the bizarre looking SEA -.5, -111 line. It's not quite a money line because it would lose if they tie, but for all intents and purposes, it's a money line. However, he also has a money line of SEA -130, ARZ +108. (I swear this guy is retarded sometimes). So the SEA-.5 -111 and ARZ ML +108 is actually 3 cents away from being arbable at the same book. Even for this guy, this is a weird move, and I'm about 75% sure he only did it because of me. I think he's trying to protect against me teasing ARZ +1.5 or even ARZ +1. This is the little cat and mouse game that goes on between books and sharps. It also tells me I need to maybe go easy on or disguise some of my Wongs, especially the 6.5 point ones for -120.

I fired on SEA-.5 -111 for a normal amount. I'll see what he does closer to game time. Like I've said before, this guy loves moving lines around and he is certainly no 'NFL push rate master' so I might get a nice juicy arbable number later on. But we'll see.

BTC is going through a healthy, minor little correction as we speak, down to $109k. Isn't that hilarious to say, by the way. It's down to under $110k. It feels like only yesterday that $100k was the big, mythical number to claim. Now it would nearly be bear market territory. I think these pullbacks are actually good. I have learned that with crypto or stocks, you need these pullbacks to clear out messy leverage and get the paper hands to fold to longer term holders. It makes the next run up much more solid. When something just shoots straight up, it usually means it's going to come down just as hard eventually. But a nice steady climb with a few corrections on the way is probably the best way to go. My short term plan is I think we go down for another couple weeks, maybe into mid October, maybe go sub $100K, and then we blast off into the final leg of the bull market. I've been slowly scooping up some bullish options on crypto with Robinhood futures with this latest down turn. I'll have more on these RH futures soon as I've been slowly learning more and more about them.

That's it for today I suppose. Check back early next week for my Week 4 round up and possibly another post in the meantime. Thanks for reading!

We're Sick Because Our Money Is Sick

I've been quietly sitting with my thoughts since the horrific murder of Iryna Zarutska, the assassination of Charlie Kirk and especially the aftermath of it. I have been really trying to parse out exactly how I feel as logically as possible, really for my own sanity more than anything else. I have really been trying to organize my thoughts and feelings because these two murders and their aftermath felt new. They felt new and different for some reason. Like a line had officially been crossed and instead of grumbling and conceding more ground and making a new line, people have finally said 'enough'. I mean, maybe. It's hard to know this stuff in real time. It's always clear in hindsight and whatever happens 5 and 10 years from now, people will say 'I knew it was coming! It was so obvious!' But really being in it like this, you have to admit you really have no fucking idea what's coming.

I'm going to do this post a little bit different than usual. I'm going to short-rapid fire some opinions because it feels like I need to get this stuff out. I know most people don't come here to read this stuff but I just can't not write anything about it. We'll get back to our regular programming shortly, but if you're interested, here is what I have to say:

-I am officially OUT on 'unity' or 'lowering the temperature.' I don't know how many times we need to get hit with a stick before we realize that someone is trying to hit us with a stick. 

-The celebration after the assassination was something I really had never seen before, and I'm a true millennial. I have seen and been on the internet since its inception, really. Like others my age, I had completely unrestricted access to the internet at 15/16 years old, before anyone even knew what the internet was. I have seen just about everything. Two girls one cup? Childs play. I saw the famous cartel-chainsaw-group-decapitation video (if you have no idea what I'm talking about, congratulations. But it was a video of 5 or 6 guys handcuffed to a long table and one guy with a chainsaw just agonizingly slowly, cutting off their heads. One by one, through shoulders and arms and all. The chainsaw sputters and shuts off a few times. It takes FOREVER. And you're watching the guy who's up next just sitting there with pure resignation on his face, along with gore and viscera being flung at him. It is a truly horrific video is my point here). War videos, murder, beatings, deaths, bombs, stuff you can't even imagine. I have proverbially seen it all. And even I was absolutely shocked at the utter glee with which a lot of these people celebrated with. October 7th was a peak into these people's minds but this was like looking through one of those old school, put a quarter into this funny looking telescope thing. These people are deranged and evil is a real thing.

-Charlie Kirk was a 31 year old, married man with two children under the age of 5. Everyone keeps saying he was 'far-right' but he really wasn't. Like, at all. He is to the left of me on just about every major issue. And even if he was 'far-right', does that excuse his murder?? Does half this country really want me to die? Not only that, but would they celebrate if I was a known person and got killed? It sure seems that way. Maybe I'm naive but I really did not know that. I despise shit libs, I hate the modern left and its ideology with a burning passion but I don't wish death on these people. Not even close. I saw a great meme describing this feeling which I will paraphrase: "When I say I hate liberals, I mean that I think they're dumb and wrong and goofy but I would save them from a house fire. When liberals say 'Just Be Kind!' they mean that they want me and my entire family to be murdered."

-The people that celebrated almost all did it openly and proudly with their full first and last names. They were shocked that anyone even disagreed with them, never mind that they would suffer consequences. That was one of the most unnerving parts of this whole thing. These people, largely teachers and nurses by the way, were SHOCKED that anyone else would be shocked at them for gleefully celebrating a 31 year old young father getting assassinated in front of his family, all for nothing but speech. Take a minute and think of the implications of that...

-One thing that was impossible not to notice about the ghastly celebration of Kirks murder all over social media was the stark and obvious difference between the people celebrating his death and the people who were defending him. The people celebrating were almost universally revolting. Not just physically ugly, though that was largely the case, but ugly in their souls. Dead eyes. Very few spouses or kids. Very few business owners or people who build or run anything. Lots of students, jobless adults, teachers (which is horrific, by the way. WTF is going on with academia?), nurses and 'government job' types of people. Every video I saw was a person alone and in a lot of their bios was a list of their mental problems. Like they're bragging. They pretend to hate this country or society or whatever else but they pretty clearly hate themselves. I'd say roughly 75% of the ones I saw were from a person that a toddler would be terrified at the sight of. I don't care what your politics are, gleefully celebrating the murder of a young man and father of two whose biggest crime was effectively sharing his opinions is irreversibly damaging to your soul. And we can all see it on your faces.

-Charlie Kirk was not a politician. He wasn't even a CEO. He was a guy who debated with people who disagreed with him. That's it! And the left celebrated like it was their 21st birthday party when a confused, gay, loner shot him in the neck with a fucking sniper rifle. 

-Am I the only person who remembers that up until like 10 minutes ago, the whole world knew that male cross dressing is like top of the list for signs of a severely disturbed, dangerous and violent person? Are we all just pretending not to know that?

-Iryna Zarutska was the Ukrainian smoke-show who had her throat slit on a train by a black man with FOURTEEN prior arrests. Fourteen! What kind of a sick, depraved society lets loose a man like that onto its own population? And why?

-I watched the actual, raw video of her murder and the aftermath. And I have to admit, for the first time in my entire life after watching a video online, I actually cried. If you haven't seen the full video, do your soul a favor and don't watch it. It is beyond brutal. And the way the people around her act like she isn't even there. Utterly confused, she cries into her bloody hands and then falls over and dies from blood loss. No one even looked at her in the video, never mind touched her. I honestly can't even really think about it without getting emotional and angry. 

-After her murder, the official Black Lives Matter X account posted a video saying 'oppressed people have the right to violence.' I looked myself, it wasn't a mistake or fake news. It's real. They really posted that and got tens of thousands of likes. Maybe even over 100k now.

-Do you understand that? Are you seeing this same shit as me? THEY WANT YOU DEAD AND THEY AREN'T EVEN HIDING IT ANYMORE.

-Unity? UNITY?! Jimmy fucking Kimmel?! I mean are you kidding?

-My view on the detestable, cringey, hacky, puppet that is Jimmy Kimmel is very similar to what Gavin Mccinnes said. Something like 'Jimmy Kimmel getting fired is bad, government pressure like that is bad and it's hypocritical of us to celebrate it. But I am a hypocrite on this. I'm glad he was fired and I want bad things to happen to him.' 

-I am DONE upholding rules for people who mock the idea of rules in the first place. I refuse to be the most principled man in the mass grave. People say 'we shouldn't do this because then they'll do it back to us!' They already did! And they're going to anyway, whether we stay 'principled' or not. I mean, did the whole world forget covid? How many times did we hear 'you have freedom of speech, just not freedom of consequences'? They LAUGH at our principles! 'Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent.'

-At a time when people are the most fed up with the two party system, libertarians have not won one single thing in my entire lifetime. If anything, they've gone backwards. What good is the 'best theory on paper' if it only ever remains on paper?

So that is sort of my thoughts on this, puked up on page in bullet form. Whether you're right or left, white or black, American or not, there is one thing I think we can all agree on. We are sick. Whatever the reason, whatever the symptoms, I don't think anyone can argue that there isn't a sickness deep in the hearts or souls or minds of the modern Western human being today. Why is that?

I think that upstream of all of this, the entire culture war, the identity politics, the race acrimony, the corruption, the perverse incentives, all of the rot is from one thing; money printing. Money is the blood that runs through the veins of our country. And since our country is so much bigger and more powerful than any other country, our blood spills over into theirs. The whole world does business with USD. And just like how getting bad blood corrupts an entire body, bad money corrupts anyone who has it.

Think about 100 years ago when we were still on the gold standard.  Every single dollar in existence was backed by an equal amount of gold. It was real, hard, honest money. The only way to earn any of it was to actually earn it. You had to provide value for someone. Ever since we went off the gold standard in the 70's, that dynamic has changed. Now money can be created out of thin air. Need a loan from the bank? They just create the money right then and there with a few keystrokes. (Did you know that, by the way? When you get a loan from the bank, it isn't like they take cash from their vault and loan it to you. They just create the new loan money right there on the spot. Does that seem right to you?) A few gigantic businesses in 'key industries' got insanely greedy and stupid and are about to go bankrupt? We can't have that so let's print trillions of dollars and bail these companies out, effectively rewarding them for reckless and stupid behavior. Not only that, but also signaling to everyone else that whatever happens, the American Taxpayer won't let you go bankrupt. So leverage yourself as much as possible, take enormous unjustifiable risks and worst case, the federal government will simply steal money from the public and give it to you (that is essentially what happens when they print money out of thin air). A 'pandemic' has broken out? Quick, let's print even more trillions of dollars and this time, we'll give out 'forgivable loans' (much like the term 'quantitative easing', or 'Q.E' there's always a cheese-dick term/acronym for what it really is: creating money out of thin air. Why do you think they always have to call it something else?)

What kind of a system does that loose, 0% interest rate, money-printing dynamic produce? What kind of a person do you think that environment attracts? What sort of business people get interested and active when they hear that you no longer need to build or create or innovate to get rich, but simply need to know the right people? Or beg loudly enough? Or put yourself in the middle of deals, or create an obstacle and then sell the way around the obstacle?

'Money is the barometer of a society's virtue' - Ayn Rand.

Once these people are here, what sorts of things do they do? What do they 'build'? Who do they support in positions of power? What are their goals? Justice? Prosperity? National strength and unity? A high trust society? Please. How do you think a guy (who belongs on the other side of the planet) with fourteen arrests, a knife, no job and no train ticket gets on a train and slits the throat of the innocent White girl sitting in front if him? It's akin to the growth of the 'management class.' When you grow a company and hire more people, you have to hire people to manage those people. You then have to hire people to manage THOSE people, and on it goes. Corruption leads to more corruption like sickness leads to more sickness. A bloated bubble. We've had over 50 years of fiat bullshit. 50 years of subversion, of lies, of crooks. 50 years of money grubbing, hand rubbing men getting rich from taking, not giving. Extracting, not producing. Destroying, not creating. Not providing value but by sucking off of people who do.

What kinds of children and families do you think these men produce? What sorts of institutions arise around them? What kind of art do they like? Have you noticed how modern and 'post-modern' art is almost always bad on purpose? It's like a literal zombie bite or a vampire movie. Once you invite the Fiat Monster in, you can never get him out. 

Unless, of course, you find a way to introduce new, real, hard money built for the future that has nothing to do with the federal government or the Federal Reserve. Imagine that. Built from the ground up, no CEO, no company, no nothing. Just pure, real, money, built by creators, FOR creators.

Imagine that.

BTC price: $112k

BTC marketcap: $2.23T

Total crypto marketcap: $3.86T

BTC dominance (with stables): 57.7%

Total cryptos on coinmarketcap: 24.31M

(NFL Week 3 betting recap coming tomorrow or the next day. Thanks for reading, bye for now!)

NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

 I will have a post up soon about Charlie Kirk and Iryna Zarutska, the Ukrainian (actual) refugee who was murdered by a black man on a public train and left to bleed out in front of a dozen or so other blacks who barely even looked her way. Between her murder, Charlie Kirks murder and the reaction to both of them, I am so beyond full of rage. Like, white hot, blinding, trembling rage. I can barely muster a comprehensible sentence about all of it right now so I'm going to fester for a couple more days before I write about it. But a post is coming soon.

Today I am going to continue this new thing I'm doing this year which is a recap of my bets for the NFL for the prior week. So let's dig in.

First off, as is typical with NFL teasers, I had a few bets from week 1 that were still pending into week 2, all of them being Chicago +7.5 teasers. I hedged with various Vikings bets and again got a little too cute. I got decent numbers on a couple Vikings -1 and -2.5 which won, but I mostly hedged with Vikings -3.5 +150ish. The Vikings ended up winning by 3 so my teasers all won and a couple of the hedges won too, so a good result that should have been way better. A recurrent theme this week that we'll see...

I did a few 'non-standard' teasers this week which is usually when I get a team at -3 -130-ish and tease them to +3 and the buy half a point. I can actually get these 6.5 point teasers at -120 which is really good. Besides these teasers being +EV on their own, I like the idea of doing any teasers that aren't exactly Wong teasers. It throws the agent/bookmakers off the scent a little bit and they look square. I teased GB, SF and PIT from heavy -3's into +3.5s. The Steelers were the only team to not cover +3.5.

I also had many different small teasers with IND +8.5 and +7.5 as well as KC +7.5. I was able to get KC +7.5 by jumping on KC +1.5 early in the week. I had KC +7.5 in almost all of my teasers so I hedged with some PHI -1 and -2.5, but mostly -3.5 and a little -9.5. Again, getting too cute. PHI won by 3 so it was the same thing as the CHI/MIN game. A good result but a half point away from being amazing.

I had a fairly big position on the NYJ at +6.5 -105, -102 and +6 -108 I got throughout the week, all of which were arbable with Pinnacle. I did my half-scalp thing and got myself plus odds of NYJ +6 and +6.5 where Pinnacle was at like -115ish, no vig. They got blown out of course but they were fantastic bets. 

I had the Patriots teased to +7.5 in a few teasers and was able to hedge with MIA ML at -125 on Draft Kings which was a couple cents away from being arbable at Pinnacle. If MIA won by 7 or less points it would have been a huge winner. I still made money as I had way more on the Pats. It didn't work out perfectly but again, I was finding a ton of really good spots like this all week. I actually cashed out of most of my MIA bets near the end of the game for small amounts which is something I almost never do but worth thinking about. I did the same thing with a small DAL -4.5 bet I had. They were down by 4 with the ball for the last possession of the game. There was, I believe, zero chance they would score a TD to go up by 3 and then NOT kick the extra point. I couldn't see a single possibility where they could cover 4.5. The cash out was small, something like 15% of the bet, but I did it and it got me thinking about the cash outs a little bit. Usually you can find a better option then cash outs through live betting, but not always. I think if you are able to scoop up these little 10-20% cash out rebates it may be worth it. I think they might be leaving them up a little too long, especially when the cash out option is tiny. (However, in general, cashing out is almost always bad).

My PPH account put up DEN -107 moneyline which was off market and on the verge of being arbable with Pinnacle. However, close to kick off, Draft Kings put up IND +110. So I had a nice clean little arb there which I basically maxed out. (Terrific way to clear a bonus I had too). I had IND teased to +7.5 and +8.5 from early in the week as well, so hedging that with a -107 DEN ML and then arbing THAT with IND +110 ML is a traders wet dream. IND won with a walkoff field goal, but if DEN had won by less than a TD it would have been perfect. Again, a decent result that was inches away from being amazing.

The Sunday Night game was interesting. The market was bouncing between Min -3 and -3.5 all day. I wanted some more KC +7.5 right before it started and my PPH had KC +1 which was slightly better than market. So I paired it with MIN -3 -115 and bought half a point, which gave me KC +7.5 and MIN +3.5 for one big bet of a 6.5 point teaser at -120. Once KC covered, I knew I had to hedge some of the MIN bet. The best number I could find was Draft Kings who had ATL at +3.5 -115 (Pinnacle was at +3.5 -123ish). However, my PPH dealt MIN -3 -110, where Pinny was at -3 -114. This was one of those rare scalp opportunities where you have two slightly off market numbers instead of one off market number. So I fired hard on MIN -3 -110 and even harder on ATL +3.5 -115. I had $500 worth of bonus bets from DK too so I used them all on ATL +3.5, plus a lot more. If it was a 3 point game either way, I would have done quite well and if MIN won by exactly 3 I would have absolutely cleaned up. ATL won outright which wasn't ideal but I had more on ATL. I also had a nice little Draft Kings same game parlay with a 50% boost of ATL +3.5, under 44.5 and under JJ Mccarthy passing yards. The boost made it go from 4 to 1 to 6 to 1. That was a nice little addition but for a really small amount with the $30 max bet for the promo.

Other than all that, I had a few small live bets with bonuses and a couple small MLB props, again with bonuses. Nothing worth writing about though. All in all I'm basically break even after two weeks with some teaser equity going into week 3. Speaking of week 3, so far I have TB +8.5 tonight as the last leg of a couple teasers. I jumped in small on DEN +8.5, GB -2.5, ARZ +7.5 and DAL +7.5 for Wongs. For my non-standard 6.5 point teasers, I have one with BUF -6.5, IND +3.5 and Patriots +7.5 (they opened at +1.5/2 but are now PK/+1. Another example of jumping on those +1.5's early in the week).

Anyway, that's about it for today. Be on the lookout for my next post, should be up soon.

Thanks for reading, bye for now!

Back At It. NFL Week 1, My Process, Robin Hood Futures And More

Week 1 of the 2025/2026 NFL season is in the books. I have never been less interested in a new football season as I was going into this year and to be honest, I wasn't planning on doing any real betting at all. However, come this past Sunday, I found myself at my battle station and settled right into my old routine. And I must admit, it actually felt good. I had somewhat of an internal resurgence for betting, and I didn't even have a good week! That's how I know it was real. So something I think I'll do this year is make a post on Mondays or Tuesdays detailing how the prior week went, betting wise. I'll detail my exact positions (for the most part) and we can all go on this little journey together. It occurred to me the other day that after every slate/week, I mostly just delete everything on my pending sheets and start over for the next slate of games/week. I of course keep very good records of win/loss in every category as well as overall ROI, but the actual positions I took and the bets I made get lost forever. So this will be a good way to keep something like a betting journal. I have no idea if people are interested in this but my gut tells me yes.

First off, I am unfortunately working with only two books right now, plus Robin Hood futures which we'll get into later. I expect to have at least one or two more eventually, but for now all I have is one really good, beefy PPH account that I've had forever. They don't let me bet anything other than straights and teasers but have massive betting and credit limits plus I have never once had a problem with the agent in over a decade. That's my main book, plus I have a Draft Kings account. Very much like last year, my main thing this year will most likely be Wong teasers, off-market straights, alt lines, and the occasional prop/parlay on DK. I am planning on taking Live betting more seriously this year too but we'll see how that goes.

First thing I did on Sunday was look for Wong teasers. Aside from getting Atl teased to +7.5 early in the week, I actually missed the 1:00 slate completely (having a two year old at home makes locking yourself in front of your computer all day on a Sunday impossible) but I got into gear for the afternoon games. Except for LAR/HOU, every single game after the 1:00 o'clocks was Wongable. So I had Sea, Den, Det and Buf in a bunch of 3 team, 6 point teasers (at +170 which is decent and slightly better than two teamers at -110). I actually usually don't really do that; that is, having teasers with teams playing at the same time. I like to have them playing at all different times so I can hedge/middle each one. I decided to mostly let them ride this week though and just bet smaller amounts. I also tied Chi +7.5 into a bunch of them as well. A couple I did fire big on - for instance this teaser: Den -2.5, Buf +7.5 and Chi +7.5. They were all on different times so I was able to hedge/middle each one. 

I managed to get +120 on Detroit ML where Pinnacle was at -100/-110, so I maxed out Det +120 and hedged most of it out with GB -110. I also got Det +2.5 -110 which was arb-able with Pinnacle with GB -2.5 +116. (This is from that same mythical PPH account that I've talked about a bunch on here before. The one where the agent moves lines around way into arb-able territory for seemingly no reason at all. And another instance of him being right. He wanted action on Detroit and he got it from me. And wouldn't ya know it, they got blown out by Green Bay. I've mostly learned my lesson on this now though and generally just take the free money, though I did have plenty of exposure to Det. With the ML and spread being arb-able PLUS being in Wong range, it couldn't be avoided.) Anyway, all the Wongs won except for Detroit. If Detroit had covered +8.5, I would have had an amazing week.

I got a little too cute on my hedge on the Titans against Denver. I had Denver -2.5 in every single teaser so I knew I wanted some action on the Titans. I could have got +9 -110 but I always try to pay as little juice as possible on hedges, so I went with +7.5 +107 instead. I also bet Titans ML at +370 which was a good price. My nightmare scenario was Den winning by 1 or 2 and they were winning by exactly 2 deep into the 4th quarter. I panicked a little bit and hit Den to win straight up live betting on Robin Hood a few times late into the game which worked out but wan't a great play. Denver ended up winning by 8 so even though it all worked out, it should have been a lot better.

Seattle was only in a handful of my teasers so I let that ride and they covered +7.5.

Going into the late Buf/Bal game, I had a few teasers still alive, one being massive (for me). This is how my Sundays typically go; I end up with a huge position on the Sunday Night Game. This time it was Buf +7.5. I hedged with Bal -6.5 +190, some -2.5 +105 and -3.5 +145. I usually keep my hedges so that I still have a position on the original bet since that's where the EV comes from, but sometimes I manage to find +EV hedges which is like Indiana Jones finding that jewel or skull or whatever it was (I don't think I've ever actually seen Indiana Jones). I also managed to lock up some free money with small Live arbs on DK (I don't have the stats to back this up yet but I find that betting against the team that just scored a TD is usually a good play with live betting). So if Bal won by anything between 3-7 I would have absolutely cleaned up. As we know, Buf ended up winning by one so I made out ok but it was tantalizingly close to a dream week.

I tied Chicago +7.5 to a lot of these teasers as well, especially with Buffalo. So last night was similar to Sunday night as I had a big position of Chi +7.5 going into the game. I hedged with a mix of Min -3.5 +150ish, Min -1 -110, a nibble of Min ML, and then a bunch of Min +7.5 -125 and Min +3.5 +155 live betting in the first quarter when the Vikings offense looked like a high school team. The Vikings ended up winning by 3 which was a half point away from being absolutely ideal. If they won by 4-7 I would have won nearly every single bet I made on that game which would have been quite nice for me. I can't complain though, anytime your main teaser wins and you win or push on any of your hedges, it's a great outcome.

Looking ahead, I already put in a couple teasers for next week. One is Chi +7.5 (which won already) with KC +7.5, and the other is Patriots +7.5 and Colts +8.5. I like to take small nibbles at the start of the week and slowly ramp them up as the week goes on.

Like I mentioned up top, Robin Hood came out with Prediction Markets a few months ago and now they include sports too. Interestingly, they leave them up all game so you can use them for live betting. There's no spread or total so it's just moneyline betting, but it sure is intriguing. I imagine they'll eventually get spreads and totals and other things on there too. Robin Hood really does want to do it all; brokerage, credit card company, retirement accounts and now sports book/exchange, and so far they've done a really good job in my opinion. I've fucked around with it before and have a bunch of small positions on the price of BTC and ETH as well as how many cuts the Fed will make this year, but this week was the first time I was really digging into the futures and seeing exactly the price they were dealing after fees. Sadly, the fees are higher than they seem at first. Anytime I figured out exactly what they were dealing, it would be something like -120/-110. 20% commission. That will definitely need to come down if they want more volume but I could see RH being the next Matchbook. A highly liquid, small fee exchange that US players can play on. I had them and Draft Kings up at the same time with live betting and most of the time DK had the better price, but there were spots where RH was the best price/slower to move. Something to keep in mind.

Looking ahead to Week 2, there have been some pretty big line moves. It's interesting to see how the market reacts to the first week of the season. Buf is at the Jets and that spread moved from Jets +8 to Jets +6.5. Dallas went from -3 to -6 against the NYG. New Orleans went from +7 to +4.5 against the 49ers. The possible Wongable games are the Patriots at +1 against the Dolphins. That's one to watch all week to see if you can find a rouge +1.5 somewhere and tease it up to 7.5. Be careful with that though, the Pats are notoriously bad in Miami. Even during the Brady run when they were far and away the best team in the league and the Dolphins were terrible for like a decade straight, weird stuff always seemed to happen in Miami. This one I'll probably completely hedge/middle. KC is also +1, playing at home vs Phi. Same thing, look for a +1.5 to tease up to +7.5. Pats are on at 1:00 and KC is 4:00 so it's an ideal pairing. (Some books let you do open teasers which is an underrated option and perfect for stuff like this. With an open teaser option, you don't need both legs to be Wongable at the same time.) Finally, you have Ind at +2.5 -119 at home vs Denver. Definitely a good leg and one I'm jumping on small now. Other possibilities are Buf at NYJ at -6.5 if they get bet up to -7.5 or if you can get really good teaser odds and tease them down to -.5 and hedge with NYJ ML. Again, only if you can get really good numbers on both bets. That game a fairly high total though so not ideal. Lastly, TB is +2.5 +101 right now at Pinnacle as the MNF game. If TB takes some money during the week it might be a good leg to throw in as the last leg of a 3 teamer as a stand alone game. Fairly low total too which is good.

That's it for today. These posts will probably be shorter than normal. Please comment if you like these little wrap ups. Check back soon, I will have a longer post up. If you see the news (online) you probably know what I'm going to talk about. Bye for now!

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