I will have a post up soon about Charlie Kirk and Iryna Zarutska, the Ukrainian (actual) refugee who was murdered by a black man on a public train and left to bleed out in front of a dozen or so other blacks who barely even looked her way. Between her murder, Charlie Kirks murder and the reaction to both of them, I am so beyond full of rage. Like, white hot, blinding, trembling rage. I can barely muster a comprehensible sentence about all of it right now so I'm going to fester for a couple more days before I write about it. But a post is coming soon.
Today I am going to continue this new thing I'm doing this year which is a recap of my bets for the NFL for the prior week. So let's dig in.
First off, as is typical with NFL teasers, I had a few bets from week 1 that were still pending into week 2, all of them being Chicago +7.5 teasers. I hedged with various Vikings bets and again got a little too cute. I got decent numbers on a couple Vikings -1 and -2.5 which won, but I mostly hedged with Vikings -3.5 +150ish. The Vikings ended up winning by 3 so my teasers all won and a couple of the hedges won too, so a good result that should have been way better. A recurrent theme this week that we'll see...
I did a few 'non-standard' teasers this week which is usually when I get a team at -3 -130-ish and tease them to +3 and the buy half a point. I can actually get these 6.5 point teasers at -120 which is really good. Besides these teasers being +EV on their own, I like the idea of doing any teasers that aren't exactly Wong teasers. It throws the agent/bookmakers off the scent a little bit and they look square. I teased GB, SF and PIT from heavy -3's into +3.5s. The Steelers were the only team to not cover +3.5.
I also had many different small teasers with IND +8.5 and +7.5 as well as KC +7.5. I was able to get KC +7.5 by jumping on KC +1.5 early in the week. I had KC +7.5 in almost all of my teasers so I hedged with some PHI -1 and -2.5, but mostly -3.5 and a little -9.5. Again, getting too cute. PHI won by 3 so it was the same thing as the CHI/MIN game. A good result but a half point away from being amazing.
I had a fairly big position on the NYJ at +6.5 -105, -102 and +6 -108 I got throughout the week, all of which were arbable with Pinnacle. I did my half-scalp thing and got myself plus odds of NYJ +6 and +6.5 where Pinnacle was at like -115ish, no vig. They got blown out of course but they were fantastic bets.
I had the Patriots teased to +7.5 in a few teasers and was able to hedge with MIA ML at -125 on Draft Kings which was a couple cents away from being arbable at Pinnacle. If MIA won by 7 or less points it would have been a huge winner. I still made money as I had way more on the Pats. It didn't work out perfectly but again, I was finding a ton of really good spots like this all week. I actually cashed out of most of my MIA bets near the end of the game for small amounts which is something I almost never do but worth thinking about. I did the same thing with a small DAL -4.5 bet I had. They were down by 4 with the ball for the last possession of the game. There was, I believe, zero chance they would score a TD to go up by 3 and then NOT kick the extra point. I couldn't see a single possibility where they could cover 4.5. The cash out was small, something like 15% of the bet, but I did it and it got me thinking about the cash outs a little bit. Usually you can find a better option then cash outs through live betting, but not always. I think if you are able to scoop up these little 10-20% cash out rebates it may be worth it. I think they might be leaving them up a little too long, especially when the cash out option is tiny. (However, in general, cashing out is almost always bad).
My PPH account put up DEN -107 moneyline which was off market and on the verge of being arbable with Pinnacle. However, close to kick off, Draft Kings put up IND +110. So I had a nice clean little arb there which I basically maxed out. (Terrific way to clear a bonus I had too). I had IND teased to +7.5 and +8.5 from early in the week as well, so hedging that with a -107 DEN ML and then arbing THAT with IND +110 ML is a traders wet dream. IND won with a walkoff field goal, but if DEN had won by less than a TD it would have been perfect. Again, a decent result that was inches away from being amazing.
The Sunday Night game was interesting. The market was bouncing between Min -3 and -3.5 all day. I wanted some more KC +7.5 right before it started and my PPH had KC +1 which was slightly better than market. So I paired it with MIN -3 -115 and bought half a point, which gave me KC +7.5 and MIN +3.5 for one big bet of a 6.5 point teaser at -120. Once KC covered, I knew I had to hedge some of the MIN bet. The best number I could find was Draft Kings who had ATL at +3.5 -115 (Pinnacle was at +3.5 -123ish). However, my PPH dealt MIN -3 -110, where Pinny was at -3 -114. This was one of those rare scalp opportunities where you have two slightly off market numbers instead of one off market number. So I fired hard on MIN -3 -110 and even harder on ATL +3.5 -115. I had $500 worth of bonus bets from DK too so I used them all on ATL +3.5, plus a lot more. If it was a 3 point game either way, I would have done quite well and if MIN won by exactly 3 I would have absolutely cleaned up. ATL won outright which wasn't ideal but I had more on ATL. I also had a nice little Draft Kings same game parlay with a 50% boost of ATL +3.5, under 44.5 and under JJ Mccarthy passing yards. The boost made it go from 4 to 1 to 6 to 1. That was a nice little addition but for a really small amount with the $30 max bet for the promo.
Other than all that, I had a few small live bets with bonuses and a couple small MLB props, again with bonuses. Nothing worth writing about though. All in all I'm basically break even after two weeks with some teaser equity going into week 3. Speaking of week 3, so far I have TB +8.5 tonight as the last leg of a couple teasers. I jumped in small on DEN +8.5, GB -2.5, ARZ +7.5 and DAL +7.5 for Wongs. For my non-standard 6.5 point teasers, I have one with BUF -6.5, IND +3.5 and Patriots +7.5 (they opened at +1.5/2 but are now PK/+1. Another example of jumping on those +1.5's early in the week).
Anyway, that's about it for today. Be on the lookout for my next post, should be up soon.
Thanks for reading, bye for now!
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