Props Results, NFL Playoffs Week 1 Review And Some Random Thoughts

Quite the slate of games this past weekend, huh? 

First of all, prop results from Saturday:

Stafford UNDER 33.5 passing attempts -106 (DK) 1.5 units.

LOSS, 42 attempts. This play assumed LAR would be holding a lead late and running a ton. CAR has a bottom 10 rushing defense, too. I liked this play and still think it was +EV. -1.59u.

Kyren Williams OVER 68.5 rushing yards -112 (FD)

LOSS, 57 yards. Absolutely no idea how this didn't cash as he averaged a chunky 4.4 yards per rush with 13 attempts. He was gashing them every run it seemed but LAR relied heavily on their pass game for most of the day, especially late. Going 3/13 on third downs was one of the big reasons this game was as close as it was. I needed about 3 more touches for Kyren. -1.12u.

Blake Corum OVER 42.5 rushing yards -112 (DK) (half unit). (This is a bit of a hedge to the Kyren bet. I like these two combined).

WIN, 45 yards. Glad I threw this in as a sort of Kyren hedge. Again, CAR is pretty bad against the run. +.5u.

Bryce Young OVER .5 INT -126 (DK)

WIN, 1 INT. This could have been 1.5 units as the edge was pretty decent. +1u.

Bryce Young OVER 1.5 TD's +185 (DK)

LOSS, 1 TD. If you knew Young was going to throw it 40 times and CAR would end up with 31 points, you'd for sure think this bet would cash. -1u.

Kyren Williams OVER 14.5 rush attempts -113 (DK)

LOSS, 13 attempts. I could have cashed this out profitably in the first half as LAR was feeding him and he was gashing. But they went air heavy in the second half especially. -1.13u.

Stafford OVER 255.5 yards -112 (FD)

WIN, 304 yards. Never in doubt, really. +1u.

Parlay: B Young over .5 pass TD and over .5 INT +140 (PPH) (half unit)

Nice little square looking win. This probably should have been a full unit. +.7u.

And a nice little First Quarter semi middle with Stafford under 64.5 yards -114 (DK) and over 60.5 -115 (FD). Under = 2 units. Over = 1 unit.

LOSS of 1.3 units. 67 yards! So close. Not exactly sure if this was profitable in hindsight but I think it was. I usually look for prop middles like this to be at least 10%. For instance, over 100 yards and under 110 yards. This was only about 6.5% but with it being only a quarter of the game, I think it was a good middle. The very last play of the first quarter was a 15 yard pass from Stafford to Parkinson. If he gets tackled 2.5 to 6.5 yards shorter, we bink. Oh well! -1.3u

Little first half CP action: Car +6.5, under 23.5 +180 (FD)

LOSS, although Fan Duel had a couple very arb-able alt first half lines of +6.5 and +3.5 which I unloaded on which all won. -1u.

All in all -2.94 units on props, not counting the first half CP. So I guess -3.94 units total but the CP was tiny.

These all 'felt' really good and I don't even regret betting them. I think long term altogether they were +EV. However, I've 'felt' this way about my props for like 5 years now and have been break even with props at absolute best. I'll probably do this again for a few more games and I would like to get in the green for NFL playoff props in total but we shall see. Really depends on if I have the time but with so few games remaining, I think I will. I saw some things in prop land that I haven't before and I had some ideas flowing. But, whatever! Props are just not quite my jam anymore. You DFS fucks ruined the whole godamn thing. *Mike Ehrmantraut from Breaking Bad: 'We had a good thing you stupid son of a bitch!'*

I had an OK week in total. I lost about 3 units overall but I have the last leg of a massive teaser pending tonight (PIT +8.5). [I wrote most of this Monday]. I can lock up more than 12 units if I go with straight arbs, but with the super low total (38) I'll definitely go with some middles. Depends what I can get on HOU.

I managed to get both sides of Wonging JAX/BUF for big amounts which was good. I had to use PHI +.5 as a leg for a lot of my teasers which obviously lost. That wasn't a great leg anyway so I fully hedged it with SF ML, SF -2.5 and some SF +3.5. If PHI won by 3 or less it would have been perfect.

Looking ahead, SEA and DEN look like juicy Wongable games. My PPH has DEN +1 so I'll be watching that close, looking to snipe a +1.5 teased up to +7.5.

Random football thoughts:

-Why do O-Lines telegraph the snap so much these days? It seems like nearly every game I see, the Guard throws his arm up so the center can see it, then the center snaps the ball. Every single snap. Or, like Tony Romo used to be famous for, snapping it with 1 second left on the play clock in nearly every single situation. It lets the defense really tee up. I know with Romo it was more to see as much of the defense pre snap as possible, but that isn't the case with what I see these days. I especially noticed it last night with the Chargers. Every play the Guard looks back at the QB, waves his hand near the centers face, then they snap it, essentially giving the defense a count down to the snap. Doesn't that seem stupid? And if you are going to do that, how do you not put a couple fakes in mid game? Like, establish that that is your pattern, then on a have-to-have it down, you have the guard wave his hand and then NOT snap it right then? Or quick snap it with no hand wave? Where's the deception? Similarly, every single QB has a pre-snap cadence. You can probably hear some of them in your head right now. I feel like I never hear them use that to their advantage. Establish your cadence, use it every single down, but then mid game change it up. I think Aaron Rodgers does shit like that but I don't think anyone else does. Curious!

-Another similar thing that has always bugged me is on field goal defenses. I see this all the time and it's so obvious that I think I must be missing something. Say an offense is lining up to a kick a field goal where there is a zero percent chance that they're going to run a fake. Something like 4th and 20 on the 35 yard line, down by 2 with 1 second left in the game. It doesn't even have to be that dramatic but let's use that as an example. ZERO chance that the offense is doing anything other than kicking the field goal. You'll see two, sometimes three players on defense drop back to defend the possible fake. I know there are rules for rushing/blocking a kick, but can't you line up guys on the outside of the formation to rush? I know you can't jump over the center anymore (which is gay) and you can't use leverage, but I don't think there are rules dictating how many guys can rush the line. (I just spent 20 minutes trying to look this up online but can't find anything). I've seen literally Super Bowl game winning kicks with no time left on the clock with 2 or 3 guys on defense basically dropping back into coverage. Again, curious!

Random non-football thoughts:

-I saw an absolutely filthy hockey highlight the other day from womens hockey, actually. Abbey Murphy, who plays for Minnesota and who was recently named to the Olympic team, made a big brain play that was as unique and smart as it was athletic. To be honest and with recency bias in mind, I have to say that it was one of the best hockey assists I think I have ever seen. This article has a 12 second slow motion replay of it, but seeing it full speed and at a couple different angles is worth it. Actually, this video is even better. If you can't watch it, real quick, she's skating into the offensive zone with the puck on a 2 on 1. With the defender right in front of her, she flicks the puck up in the air, bats it down lacrosse style through the defenseman's legs, gathers it back on her stick and dishes it across to her teammate who buries it. Nasty. (Speaking of women and hockey, it is still so incredibly jarring to me when I put on an NHL game and hear a woman commenting. Let's be honest: it sucks. And who is it for, exactly? I don't even believe that the 8 women watching hockey on their own like it. Do girls want straight men giving running commentary during something like a Victorias Secret fashion show? If everything is for everyone then it's really for nobody).

-I came across a video and a guy recently that I liked so much, I have to share. His name is Benjamin Zander and he's a pretty famous conductor. He's currently the musical director of the Boston Philharmonic Orchestra and the Boston Philharmonic Youth Orchestra. He's given Ted Talks and I guess if you're into classical music you probably know about him. Well, he does these things where he takes a student playing their instrument in front of a small audience and he walks them through their performance, giving all kinds of insight into the song and music and even life in general. I've watched a bunch of his videos now and they're all incredible. However, one really stuck out to me. It's from 10 years ago and has over a million views on Youtube. Here it is. Seriously, do yourself a favor and watch it. (Start watching it at 5:30 the first time you watch it as the first 5 minutes is the student playing the song by himself. The magic happens when Zander gets involved). I've been a musician my whole life (guitar and drums) but even if you aren't one, it is still for sure worth watching. Seriously, I've watched this video now 5 times. Besides the song being awesome on its own (I'm kind of starting to get into classical music a little bit now?), you just gotta see how passionate and knowledgeable this guy is. It's hard to explain. If you trust my taste at all at this point, watch the video. His TED talk is worth a watch too.

-I watched a documentary on Netflix recently called 'In Waves and War.' It was about soldiers, PTSD and mushroom therapy (I'm still holding my mushroom stocks like a shroom-cuck at this point). It was an OK doc, I suppose worth watching. Right on the edge of being worth it actually. But something really stood out to me. This is not going to sound great and I debated even bringing this up but bear with me here for a minute. The basic gist of the doc is a group of veterans who are all really struggling with PTSD and depression and adjusting to life back home. These are real deal, in combat Navy Seal dudes. They take Ibogaine which is basically magic mushrooms and it immensely helps them, short and long term. Besides giving me some much needed confidence in my Cybin, MindMed, and Compass stock positions, I had something of a surprising reaction. I found myself sort of really not liking these guys. Not in an anti-military way at all, but there was almost something, dare I say, fake about them? Like they were just way too into being soldiers and maybe too into being wounded soldiers? (I told you this wasn't going to sound good.) They were all so unbelievably impressed with themselves but also looked to be desperate for you to be impressed. Plus it was like they were impressed at themselves for not being impressed by themselves, even though they clearly were. They all viewed themselves as professional soldiers, almost like comic book hero's, and seemingly nothing else. The way they talked about their trauma and their wounds and the shit they went through was in this weird way whey they almost seemed to like it? And there was a thing where they acted like they didn't want to talk about it but they clearly loved every minute of it. And part of me couldn't help think something like 'you know, thanks and everything, genuinely, but no one made you do any of this. No one even really asked...?' (I'm whispering and gingerly taking baby steps here). I've seen a lot of WW2 docs and those guys were like night and day with these guys. I remember one WW2 pilot veteran was talking about seeing an enemy shooting at paratroopers. He says "I circled around and opened up on him. That was the end of that" just super nonchalant and not trying appear nonchalant. 

I was thinking about it because I think we're all missing something. Some sort of deeper connection, a purpose and identity inside ourselves. With these soldiers in the doc, it was like if they weren't soldiers then they were nothing. Like there was nothing in or about them that wasn't 'soldier'. I get that they were all fucked up for real but one guy was screaming 'get the fuck away from me!' at his wife and kids while watching war videos in his garage with a whiskey and a gun in his hand. It was almost like they were acting. (Just to be clear here, I do have immense respect for anyone who sees any kind of actual combat. I know as much as anyone that we need walls and protectors and one of my favorite quotes of all time is "people sleep peacefully in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.") So I'm really not talking about veterans in general here. I'm talking more about the lack of anything in these soldiers other than 'SOLDIER'. And I know that obviously these guys don't pick their missions, but so much war and mayhem over the past 25 years has been for murky and nebulous and even nefarious reasons. Fucking oil pipe lines and Haliburton stock. It almost made me want to say 'hey man, just go skydiving or race cars or something.' Ya know. If it's going to make you want to kill your family, like, just do something else maybe?

I don't even know what the fuck point I'm trying to make here exactly. A semi-professional gambler who grew up on a cul de sac weighing in on Navy Seal combat veterans being just a bit too into themselves, lol. I told you it wasn't gonna sound great. But something about the guys in that doc was off-putting in an awfully strange way and I've never had that feeling watching something like that before. Usually when I watch war docs like this, I'm halfway standing at attention with a crisp salute and misty eyes. But in this one I couldn't help but feel like saying 'we will all be okay if you guys just become personal trainers or downhill mountain bike riders, especially if it means you don't threaten to Chris Watts your wife and two little kids. The Lockheed stock ain't that important.' It made me think of what a waste it is to use up men like that, too. Fierce, loyal, super competent warriors destroying their lives and their families lives for, ultimately, what? Soldiers and symptoms of a sick, dying, hollow, late state regime perhaps.

We'll end here on this happy note. Check back soon, lots of action coming up.

Some Quick NFL Props For Today

 I had some time today to go through the LAR/CAR game for props, so here is what I have, roughly in order from my favorite on down.

Quick reminder: I have not made any money betting NFL props for years. Again, I am not a profitable prop bettor anymore. I have always done better in the playoffs than regular season, but I am NOT telling you to follow me on these. This is just what I have going today:

All one unit unless otherwise stated.

Stafford UNDER 33.5 passing attempts -106 (DK) 1.5 units.

Kyren Williams OVER 68.5 rushing yards -112 (FD)

Blake Corum OVER 42.5 rushing yards -112 (DK) (half unit). (This is a bit of a hedge to the Kyren bet. I like these two combined).

Bryce Young OVER .5 INT -126 (DK)

Bryce Young OVER 1.5 TD's +185 (DK)

Kyren Williams OVER 14.5 rush attempts -113 (DK)

Stafford OVER 255.5 yards -112 (FD)

Parlay: B Young over .5 pass TD and over .5 INT +140 (PPH) (half unit)

And a nice little First Quarter semi middle with Stafford under 64.5 yards -114 (DK) and over 60.5 -115 (FD). Under = 2 units. Over = 1 unit.

Little first half CP action: Car +6.5, under 23.5 +180 (FD)

Pretty square looking to be honest. I have CAR ML boosted to +480 which is probably my favorite bet today. I'm trying to middle the 10 but I can't quite get it profitably. 

Anyway, good luck and check back soon for results!

2025 In Review; Sports Betting, Crypto, Futures, Politics, Books And More

 2025 kind of flew by, no? I feel like I didn't write '2025' or '/25' all that much for it to be a full year. I like the theory that as you get older, everything seems to speed up since each passing year, or passing minute, really, is a smaller percentage of your lived life. A year to a 10 year old is 10% of his whole life so far. To a 50 year old, it's only 2%.

2025 was a good year for me, betting wise. Not great but not bad at all. Ever since 2019, when my volume really dropped off and I was no longer full time, I have made what I would consider about bare minimum to be as into betting as I am. 2020 was a good year with all the whacky Covid era video game and stock market bets, plus these weird KHL correlated parlays I was able to bet, but 19, 21, 22 and 23 were pretty low. I have never had a losing year betting in my life, but after 2023 I really gave up the idea of modeling with any kind of seriousness. 2024 was somewhat of a bounce back year. By throwing in the towel on modeling props, I was able to really hone in on other stuff, mainly team totals and teasers. I've always bet Wong teasers but these past two years I really learned a lot more about the math of it all and I made a nice google sheet to show all my pending bets cleanly. That google sheet was probably the best thing I did recently betting wise and I highly suggest anyone out there do the same. I used to not put all my pending bets anywhere which I can't even really believe thinking back. Then I would do it with pen and paper which always eventually got messy enough to be useless. Having all my positions readily available nice and neat has been great. As soon as I make a bet I put it in the sheet, then I have a set up for each matchup so I know exactly what I have on each side. One of those things that you can't believe you ever lived without once you start using it.

So 2024 was good and 2025 was a little bit below, but more than double the down years. It's odd, for the 4 years I didn't do as good I made almost the exact same amount all 4 years. My volume was up slightly in 2025 from 2024 but the ROI was a little bit less. (3.02% ROI for the year which really isn't bad at all). I actually took most of the summer off as I had zero action all of July and August. I've never taken that much time off before. But from September to the end of the year was a Dustin Pedroia laser show. I crushed NFL this year, going 12 for 18 for winning weeks. The week of 11/10 this year was my best week since late 2020.

I made more betting teasers this year than I ever have, including when I was full time. I will admit though that that's a bit misleading since I lost more in straight NFL bets than ever before, which was due to all the teaser hedges. I made more than double in teasers than what I lost in NFL straights, however. Something to think about going forward is just how much the teaser hedges got crushed. I would have obviously been much better off not hedging anything, but then I wouldn't be able to fire as much on teasers. Maybe I am over hedging a little bit though. Something I need to think about for next year, assuming I still have this PPH account.

This was the first year I really tried out legal sports books, too. Really no idea what took me so long. I honestly had no clue how many promos and odds boost they give out. I was so used to the wild wild west days of scammy books fucking everyone over, it didn't hit me that these legal books were simply dying for new customers. My results on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings for the year are pretty close to break-even with big volume, which is perfect. I'll have a long leash at both places and I do bet some hedges at widely available numbers on both sites, so I should be able to stay long at both and eat up the rewards. I'm already up on DK with the Gold/Silver/Platinum thing.

Besides the NHL Shots on Goal/Blocks foray, I bet very little props this year, really only betting with an odds boost or a promo. All together I made like 3 units. So I'm pretty much done with props unless it's something glaring. I made a decent 8 units Live Betting, which was good. Ending in the green Live Betting was a personal challenge for me in 2025. 

One strange thing was that I lost 10ish units on 'Straights' which I have in my sheet as any straight bet that isn't on NFL. That's almost exclusively odds boost bets which are almost always arbale with the market. Hard to understand how I lost in this, but I made money in 'non NFL straights' from September on, so I think this will be green in 2026 as I get better at using the promos/odds boost.

I lost a tiny amount with Robin Hood futures. Looking back, buying a bunch of bullish crypto futures at the very end of the bull market this year was horrific. Really kicking myself over that, actually. I have plenty of crypto exposure, there was no reason to add to it, especially with the market being at all time highs. Seriously, what the fuck was I thinking? I actually remember buying a few of these, thinking in the back of my head that they should all be the other side. Oh well.

All in all, a good year betting. I binked what felt like a few more middles than usual and not capping props at all was an absolute load off this year. Really freed me up for other stuff. I might actually break out the prop models for the playoffs this year a little bit but we'll see.

2025 was, somehow, somewhat of a disappointing year for crypto. Bitcoin actually officially had a red year, coming in at about -6%. With all the ETFs and the mainstream acceptance of BTC, it's hard to wrap your mind around the down year, until you realize that it was at $42k Jan 2024, and $17k Jan 2023. Same thing I always say with Bitcoin: just zoom out and keep stacking. I'm waiting for this bear market to officially hit us so I can scoop up a lot more at a discount, but it feels like everyone is thinking the same thing. I can't imagine the bottom is already in but crazier things have happened. Personally, I'm waiting for a break under $86kish, which feels like the new floor. All the pundits think roughly $50k will be this years low but obviously no one knows anything.

The biggest news in crypto this year, besides the ETF's, was the complete lack of an alt-season. We've discussed that on here before but that really is a big deal. It makes some people nervous, but I think it's just a healthy market correction. For how long could you really expect Joe Blow to be speculating into NFTs and meme coins? (Remember Bored Apes lol. How embarrassing.) The BTC/ETH chart is almost exactly dead even for 2025, but that's been in a big macro down trend since 2022. Early 2022 you could get .088 BTC for one ETH. Today, that number is .034. (And mid 2025 it was .019, so it's actually kind of been pumping lately).

Politics has been pretty insane here, honestly. The amount that things have shifted since the 2020 madness is mind boggling. I've honestly turned into a one issue voter. I want deportations, and a lot of them. The free lunch is over. I say this all the time but we really have absolutely no idea how good we could and should have it in America. I've made a few posts like this recently so I won't get too into it now. But for me, the economy, the foreign policy, even the Fed, it all takes a back seat to getting hateful freeloaders the fuck OUT of here, and the first step of that is to say it. No more fear. At all. I'm actually ashamed at how absurd we all let it get, thinking back. But anyway.

I read quite a few books in 2025. The best one by far was The Watchmen comic. Seriously, give that a read if you haven't before. I read Doomsday Clock afterwards too, which is considered somewhat of a sequel to Watchmen. It was ok. Worth reading but too comic-y for me. Not in the same league as Watchmen. Another book I read recently was The Alchemist (again I got it for free walking around my neighborhood. I've never been one for signs or anything of the sort, but it is a little bit strange the books that have just like literally ended up right in front of me, for free.) The Alchemist is a pretty famous book, for sure worth reading. Not long or hard to read at all, either.

Personally, my daughter is now 2.5. My wife and I are still going strong and my 'real' career is going great. I admit I can get a little bit down sometimes but when you look at it all from a couple steps back, it's all pretty good. I turn fucking 40 this year which is a bit of a mind fuck. Sometimes I forget I'm not 16 anymore. Though I will say I'm not as freaked out as I thought I might be. 30 really fucked with me. I was such a 20-something year old. But at this point, I guess I do feel 40. Or at least, like, 32.

All in all, I am grateful. I could definitely have more of a social life these days - it's pretty crazy how that just drops out when everyone starts having kids. But anytime I go out these days I'm looking to get home pretty early. I'm not going to do any goals for 2026 or anything, but I would like betting to be at least as good as 2025 and I definitely want to play more poker. If we get a big bear market, I want to really load up on Bitcoin. I want to be a good father too, which I think is important to think about. I'm not so sure my parents thought like that when I was my daughters age.

I'm going to wrap it up here. I will have some sort of Christmas/New Years bizarro post out soon. 

And from me to you, genuinely, thank you for reading. I like doing this blog, it's fun. See ya later!

Minnesota And The Tipping Point

As I am sure you are aware of by now, massive fraud has been uncovered in Minnesota recently. MASSIVE, as in perhaps the biggest case of fraud in the history of America, which generally means in the history of the world. We're talking tens of BILLIONS of dollars of fraud, and we're just getting started. The sheer dollar amount is, of course, staggering, but there are so many things at play here. The brazenness, the complete disinterest from the mainstream media, the fact that a random Youtuber was the guy who broke the story, the fact that the State or at least some agencies in the State seem to be in on it. The fact that we're talking about fucking Somalian pirates in the state of Minnesota at all. The general incompetence of the fraudsters to where it's almost comical and how they all seem to be not even trying to hide it anymore. This feels like a real tipping point. 

While there are thousands of these little fake daycare centers in MN, 'The Quality Learing Center' has emerged as the face of all of them, and the events that have transpired there in the past couple of weeks is nothing short of breath taking for the sheer incompetence and brazenness.

For starters, obviously, they spelled the word 'Learning' wrong on their fucking front door. THEY MISSPELLED THE WORD LEARNING ON THE FRONT DOOR. I mean, if you read that in a story by George Orwell or Ray Bradbury, you would think it's too on the nose.

So the day that Nick Shirley's video comes out, another Youtuber (@NickSortor) goes to the Learing Center and starts filming. They notice that not only is the word 'learning' misspelled, but the street address, which is posted just under their business name and stuck to the front window, is incorrect too!

Keep in mind, this at about midnight. Have you ever heard of a daycare center with a dozen of young men employees working at midnight? Anyway, literally 8 or 9 of these guys are all milling around the front door, trying to figure out how to fix the sign and the address letters. They kind of figured out the sign, sort of, but they give up trying to figure out how to detach letters from glass and just tape up printing paper with the correct address on it! Again, it reminds me of an SNL skit. If it weren't for the fact that it's MY country being raped, it would be literally laugh out loud funny.

But we're not done yet. Not even close. So the next day, 'manager' of 'Nokomis Daycare Center, Nasrulah Mohamed' comes out to have some sort of press conference. Again, like a skit, everything is on the nose perfect. You've got the Standard Issue dopey, dead eyed liberal White woman in the background, choking back tears, holding a sign with words written in yellow so they're impossible to see. What looks like her cucked-out husband standing behind her, looking like he's envisioning driving his car 120 MPH into a wall. Some sort of trans looking White person with the yellow 'pedo-glasses.' A 'trying to look intimidating Somali guy' wearing his best Adidas hoodie for the occasion. But the best part? The kid making the statement, with his fitted Yankees cap, trying his hardest to use the right words in the right order, is wearing $2500 designer glasses. Again, you couldn't make this up if you tried. $2500 designer glasses! Have you ever spent over $2k on glasses? Do you know anyone who has? This kid is (pretending to be) a manager of a daycare center. And he's on TV, in front of the nation, having just been accussed of mind boggling fraud. And he's wearing $2500 on his face!

But it doesn't stop there.

Besides denying everything, of course, besides playing victim and calling everyone and anyone racist, he says that last night, someone broke in and stole all their paperwork! All the papers that they might be asked to provide to prove that they are, in fact, running a daycare center, are now stolen! What luck! What timing! 'We saw that our office doors was broken into as well. We saw that, unfortunately, we saw that important documentation, enrollment of the children (the (((White))) woman in the background begins to cry) and also employee documentation was gone.'

In another one of these SNL, Kids In The Hall, Kafka-esque, Somalian daycare center 'press conferences/skits', a young Somali woman with a hijab steps to the mic. The cast is again complete with the perfunctory sad-looking White woman in the background to facially scold us all and people holding signs that look like children drew. The Somali girl says that she won't be able to go to school or work if these government funded daycare centers lose their funding. Ignoring the logic there for a second, she says 'I know that fraud is bad' and catches herself. She puts her hand to her mouth, looks around absolutely terrified, and then just leaves. But not before flashing her left hand to show a gigantic engagement ring. I mean, it's comical. It's so brazen, stupid, bizarre that you almost have to tip your cap to them.

On the topic of non-Whites stealing from us en masse, here's another example, albeit a distinctly different flavor. This is on the completely other end of the fraud spectrum: just as evil, only the incompetence is replaced with a malicious cunningness. Here is a video of three young Jewish men talking to each other on a podcast. They all have their little hats and the weird hair curl things that Orthodox Jews have, and you know what they're discussing? The fact that 'Section 8, people don't know this, Section 8 has a program where instead of paying your rent, the government will pay your mortgage.' The other guy almost falls off his seat he's so impressed. 'They'll pay your mortgage!?' 'They pay the mortgage so basically they buy your house for you.' And here's the kicker: "Now before you reach out to me for this, I have no idea about it' (they all laugh). 'ChatGPT it but it's all legal.' He knew that what he said was like putting chum in shark infested waters and didn't want to get inundated with requests from his 'audience' on how to defraud the American people through Section 8 housing. If you wrote this exact script in a comedy show in England, you might honestly get jail time.

As I've been reading and watching all this unfold in real time, something occurred to me. Can you imagine people from Norway or Japan doing this? Or a Frenchman or an Englishman? In one of these videos I mentioned, you have about a dozen masked young men milling around the front of a fake daycare center at midnight. They can't figure out how to fix the multiple misspellings on their front signage and eventually give up and use taped up printer paper. They try to menace the guy filming, walking all around him oddly and taking multiple pictures of his license plate. They stage a fake break-in at one of the centers and claim that all their paperwork got stolen. The two people making the public statements crying about needing government aid have $2500 eye-glasses and a huge engagement ring. And it's all so they can keep their obviously fake daycare center schemes running, among a population that is over 70% on welfare. So I ask again, can you even picture in your mind White immigrants doing ANY of this? Fraud on top of incompetence on top of fraud. Of course not. It's beyond preposterous. 

I haven't even gotten into the Tim Walz and Jacob Frye of it all. Jacob (((Frye))) dancing around on stage in Minnesota like a little girl, putting down the rainbow flag just long enough to pick up and wave around a Somali flag. Tim Walz blaming 'White Supremacy' when someone first asked him about the fraud. The complete disinterest turned to hostility towards Nick Shirley from the corporate media. It's all been laid bare right in front of us. If this isn't a tipping point, then maybe there won't be a tipping point.

Speaking of tipping points, a short little video came across my timeline recently that I absolutely loved and want to share. From something called The Battle Of Ideas 2025, it's an absolute smoke-show young woman from Ireland who lives in London. She's addressing some sort of panel of people that look straight out of Shit Lib-Globalist casting. She spends about 2 minutes defending Western culture and talking about how dangerous and dirty London has become. She says 'we are NOT a nation of immigrants' and points out the fact that more people have come to England since 1997 than between 1066 and 1997. Her whole statement is great, right off the cuff and passionate. But the reason I want to share it is for the last 30 seconds. She finishes her point with a touch of mic drop attitude and gets the loudest and longest applause of the night. It was a meaningful and pointed applause, but the money shot is right at the end. Seriously, pause the video at 2:48. The camera pans to the panel of the pro-immigrant globalist shitlibs and they look miserable. Absolutely miserable. Arms crossed, sunk in their seats, hands over their mouths, looking meekly at each other. They felt something in that crowd and in that applause. The clock has officially begun.

Finally, one more video. A group of young Muslims (or whatever) in France stumbling upon a nice, grand piano, graciously sitting somewhere in public for people to use for free. Literally like monkeys seeing a, well, piano, they start kicking it. Even the girls can't help themselves from stomping on the keys with their feet. One of them lifts it up a couple feet and slams it back down. Is that not an absolutely perfect metaphor? Do you know the collective minds that have to come together to produce a grand piano? And it's not like they're just mystified or impressed by it. They're hostile to it. To a piano! Have you ever, in your entire fucking life, seen a grand piano and thought about stomping on the keys with your feet?? Two of them did that! Or picking it up to slam it back on the ground?? My two year old daughter treats her little toy keyboard with more respect. They hate us, they hate everything about us, they steal from us and they talk about stealing from us on podcasts. This simply cannot and will not last. 

Ol' Dirty Bastard Picked Up Food Stamps In A Limo, On TV. Plus Somalian Pirates.

 In 1995, 'rapper' Ol Dirty Bastard (ODB) from Wu-Tang was being profiled for an MTV biography.  He was a big time up and comer at the time, having just released his first solo album (which went platinum) in the same year, and for which he was paid a $45k advance on. (That's a 1995 $45k too, which, according to official CPI numbers which we know are super low end bullshit, is equal to $95k today.) While on camera, ODB loaded up a stretch limousine with 2 of his kids, his wife, (dripping, of course, with garish gold jewelry and sunglasses), booze and whatever the fuck else and proudly pulled up to the welfare office and picked up $375 in food stamps. Here is the video of it if you don't remember or believe me. I actually remember watching this live, just a completely fucking bewildered 9 year old.

'Dirty asked, “You got the camera on? It’s on? Good. It’s free money. Why wouldn’t you want to get free money? The people that want to cut off the welfare, man, I think that’s terrible. You know how hard it is for people to live without nothin’."'

And people loved it. Besides some stodgy republicans, everyone thought this was just great. 

Now, I don't bring this up to disparage ODB. I couldn't possibly care less about ODB even if you paid me. I bring this up because it's an illuminating look into the mind of a completely foreign culture and attitude than the dominate culture and attitude in America. It's as nearly as ant-ethical to American values as you can possibly get. Not only was he claiming welfare when he wasn't eligible or clearly didn't need it, but he was proudly showing it off. A rich guy sneakily scamming the system of money that he doesn't need is a disgusting, pathetic, shameful crime. But to do it in on camera? Like, call people to make sure that you're on camera? In a fucking stretch limousine, with $95k (of todays money) in your pocket, and probably tens of thousands of dollars of jewelry on you and your wife? That really is something else entirely. It's alien-like.

I'm talking about this now because it's the same sort of thing going on with the hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud being uncovered in Minnesota right now in real time. I might do a big post on that in the near future, but if you're online at all, you probably know all about it. And besides the obvious, you know what links these two stories? These three words that ODB said: 'It's free money'.

That's the problem, right there. It's a complete failure to assimilate or integrate, even a little bit. 'It's free money' implies 'it's money that comes from people that are not me.' They don't care about The Whole because they don't consider themselves part of it. Whether it's a hood-rich rapper in 1995 or Somalian pirates in fucking Minnesota of all places in 2025, it's the same mindset. They want to take as much money from 'the government' or America or American people as possible because they don't consider themselves part of any of it. And truthfully, at the end of the day, we simply can't have this.

You cannot sustain a system that makes honest people feel stupid for being honest.

I think that just about anyone in America could get themselves signed up for some sort of benefit if they really wanted to. The system isn't designed to viciously weed out corruption because it is literally inconceivable to us that anyone would sign up to get benefits that they really don't need. We're like one of those houses that puts out a big bowl of candy on Halloween and expects everyone to take one piece. We have no frame of reference for a mother instructing her kids to empty the entire bowl (and the kids little painted pumpkins) into their bag, and then get into a truck with their companies name on it. Do you understand the levels of shamelessness here?

And do you honestly expect anything to change? Are Somalians suddenly going to experience a wave of American Patriotism? I actually just chuckled out loud typing that. Of course not, and if anything, it'll probably get worse now that they think they're on borrowed time.

Think of your average Somalian guy trying to get into America. Ask yourself this question: if you told this theoretical Somalian guy that he could get into America and get signed up for welfare, but he had to burn down a house with an American family in it. No one would ever know and he wouldn't get in trouble, but an entire American family of four would be burned to death in their own home. Do you think he would turn that down? Do you think more than, say, 10% of Somalians you put that to would turn it down? Honestly think about it. That's a pretty unnerving thought, isn't it? So I ask again, for the tenth time, WHY are we doing this? What benefit does America possibly get from this kind of 3rd world, hellhole immigration? Anytime you ask a liberal this question, they'll start babbling about how great it is for the immigrant. And sure, that's true. But who gives a shit? Somalians have an entire country to themselves that they're free to live in and run however they want. How can anyone make the argument that we owe these people something? Like, forever? It's preposterous. 

Last thing I'll say on this for now is this: if we don't get any real, big time arrests with the situation in Minnesota, then I really think it will be the official beginning of the end of modern America. It will signal to the world that people who steal hundreds of billions of dollars from us didn't even get in any real trouble, so why not try to steal only a couple million? And if you're an honest person who works and pays into the system, you'll feel like such a sucker that maybe you start being a little less honest. Game theory shows that when everyone is cooperating and on the same page, it pays to do the same. But as soon as someone defects and starts cheating, you lose out bad and fast if you keep playing by the rules. Now magnify that feeling times 330 million people spread out across the country. Collapse happens slow at first and then super fast once it gets going.

I'll have more on the Somalian pirates in Minnesota scamming the taxpayers to the tune of $330 billion (more than the entire GDP of Somalia) and counting with fake daycare and autism centers (imagine explaining that sentence to George Washington). The amount of propagandized, mouth breathing, bootlicking people I see online defending them is a whole other breathtaking part of the story too.  But for now I just wanted to get this out there and that ODB thing was something that was oddly stored in brain for my whole life for some reason. Like seeing something you're not supposed to see as a little kid, it was burned in my brain. I remember thinking there had to be more to it. Like, maybe I didn't understand something. How did he not get in trouble? Why wasn't he ashamed? 30 years later and I still have the same fucking questions.

Anyways, check back soon because I'll have my yearly bizarro post where I post something completely out of left field around Christmas time. I have a couple ideas already. Lots of NFL action coming up as well. The very ends of seasons are always interesting and usually offer up some juicy spots. I see 3 or 4 good looking free money Wong hedges/spots this week already. Quite a lot of big line moves too. I'll have a yearly wrap up post too, going over betting in 2025 which really was a unique and interesting year betting wise.

From me to you, genuinely, thanks for reading. 2025 was by far my most active year on this blog and it has been fun. Don't forget to follow me on X (@POOGSblog), have a good New Years (amateur night) and talk soon!

NFL Week 15 Betting Recap And Big Look Ahead At Week 16

 I had another phenomenal week betting NFL in Week 15. My second best week of the year, behind only the one I had 2 weeks ago. I made back everything I lost last week plus a good 10 units, PLUS I have tons of teaser legs pending going into this week. I have absolutley torched teasers this year. I'm on pace to have my best teaser year of all time, including when I was full time. Really dissecting and figuring out the most optimal way to play these this year has been a goldmine. I'm defintely running good but clearly I was way too loose with them in the past as well. Having Fan Duel as the other side of a lot of these teasers has been great, too, as they usually have the best dog money lines on the board. My only worry at this point is losing my PPH which, to be honest, I'm actually a little surprised hasn't happened yet. 

Anyway, I figured I would do a little recap here but mostly do a look ahead as I have quite a few interesting spots brewing. With lots of stand alone games coming up (with low totals), this week looks like another juicy one for teasers.

The PHI/LAC game that I talked a lot about last recap landed nearly perfectly with LAC winning by 3. PHI winning by 3 would have been better, but this was the second best outcome. A great start to the week.

The best play of the week last week was on the WASH/NYG game. I had NYG teased to +8.5 from the prior week, and the line moved from WASH -2 to WASH +2.5 (this was pure luck but it's one reason I love doing Wong's super early. Sometimes you get a line move like this where you'll just be drowning in equity. You're just as likely to have the line move against you as you are with you, but when it happens like this it's boner-incuding). So I had NYG +8.5 as the last leg of a huge teaser, so now I needed to hedge on WASH. I teased them up to +8.5 for some but also got a bunch of WASH -6.5 and -7.5. Lo and behold, WASH wins by 8! Absolutely binking the FUCK out of everything. 

CHI teased to -1.5 was never in doubt. PATS covered +8.5 and my BUF -2.5 and -3.5 hedges hit. DEN +7.5 won outright. I had a huge NO +8.5, CAR -2.5 half middle (I had way more on NO +8.5) that was thiiiis close to binking perfectly. I pulled PIT from a heavy -3 to +3.5 that was never in doubt too for the MNF game.

All in all a tremendous week.

Looking ahead, there are a lot of good spots this week.

For one, the game tonight is a clear Wong. I have LAR +7.5 hedged with a little bit of SEA ML, -1.5, -6.5 and -7.5 at +280ish from earlier in the week.

The two games on Saturday are Wongable as well, though no true Wongs. You can tease PHI down to either -1.5 or -.5 and either middle with WASH +7 or go for the free money scalp with WASH ML at +280ish.

I've managed to tease both sides of GB/CHI as this line has bounced around through the zero a bit. I actually got in a little bit bad on this one as I have GB -3 teased to GB +3.5. I made this bet before Parsons went down. I jumped on teasing CHI +1.5 to +7.5 and took a little bit more of GB teased to +7.5. So this is another game where if it's decided by less than a TD, I clean up. But if it's more than a TD, I lose a fair amount. So not great, actually. I'll be adding more to this game though as it gets closer as I have seen some juicy alt-lines.

I have NO teased from a heavy -3 to +3.5. This is another game where the line movement went my way. I needed a 6.5 point leg from last week and my book had NO -3 -125 where everywhere else had NO -3.5. So now I have NO +3.5 for a big amount and the line is now NO -5.5 with a nice and low total of 40. This gives me all kinds of options for the hedge/middle: I can fire on NYJ ML at +180, I can bet NYJ at -2.5 and even -3.5 at huge plus odds. If I really want to get nuts, I could fire NYJ +7.5 if I find an off market number somewhere for the mega middle. I'll probably do a little bit of everything. You throw an odds boost or free play into any of this and the equity is off the charts.

I made something of a 'big brain correlated parlay' last week that I had never thought of before. Maybe this is obvious but it wasn't to me at the time. I needed to bet on BUF last week as a hedge against my PATS teasers and I had an idea. My PPH always does look ahead lines, so they have nearly a full slate of next weeks games up before this current week even starts. So instead of just betting BUF ML normally, I parlayed them with the look ahead line of BAL -1.5 against the PATS (the game this week). My thinking was that if BUF beats the PATS, the line on the BAL/PATS game will probably move against the PATS. And that is exactly what happened. So now I have BAL -1.5 when the line is currently BAL -3 -115ish. I don't know if that whole line move was due to only the PATS losing (and BAL looking good), but there isn't any big injury news that I'm aware of. So this might be a good sneaky idea to add in on some of the smaller hedges. Parlays always look square too so that's a huge bonus.

One thing I always look for when I'm looking at a new slate of NFL games is the totals. I look for anything extreme: any games with super high or low totals. Any total in the 30's or under 41.5 I would consider low, and anything in the 50's I would consider high. Games with low totals will obviously have less scoring, which means the value of every point is higher than normal. (The inverse is true with high totals). This is something to always keep in mind in general, but especially with teasers and buying/selling points and hedging and middling. That being said, there are three games this week with official 'low totals.' NYJ/NO, LV/HOU and KC/TEN. (BUF/CLE is low too). So there might be a couple possible non-standard teaser opportunities on these games. I talked about NYJ/NO already, but you might be able to tease KC from -3 to +3.5 profitably, or at least as a filler leg. Same with NYJ teased to +10.5. There isn't a whole lot you can do on the LV/HOU game with the 14 point spread, but if you can get decent numbers with some sort of odds boost, you could look to middle the 14 in that game, or go for a full game or first half correlated parlay. The games with high totals would be LAC/DAL and PIT/DET. LAC is a clear Wong with the line being LAC +2, but with the high total I won't fire too much on this game. Also, with games like these with the high total, I usually won't go for any kind of middle at all. With my LAC +7.5 teasers, if I hedge at all I'll probably just do DAL -7.5, assuming I can get it at +270 or better. The lower the total, the more of a middle I'll usually do with my hedges. Another sneaky little thing I like to do with teasers with high totals is a polish middle. Say I have LAC teased to +7.5. Instead of hedging at DAL -7.5 +270, I might do DAL -9.5 at +330 (or whatever the odds are). It's a bit heart-attackish and I wouldn't do that for big money, but high totals = high variance, so that is the time to do it.

In other news, there was a murder of an MIT scientist that you may have heard of. I think it might have something to do with the missing plane we've been discussing on here a little bit. I'll get into that next time though. Until then, thanks for reading and check back soon!

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Nick Fuentes And The End Of The Spell

 Nick Fuentes has been a rapidly rising star in the online 'alt-right' ecosystem lately. I say 'alt-right' but it's more like just 'the right' these days, isn't it? Tucker Carlson interviewed him a few weeks ago and it was a bit of a boring, softball interview that didn't make much news, besides the fact that Tucker had him on at all. Nick was on Piers Morgan a couple nights ago and it was a much more combative interview and has been making quite a bit of news. So I thought I would touch on Nick and more broadly, why I think he's become popular and what it means.

If you don't know, Nick Fuentes is a young Gen-Z influencer on the right. He was one of the first 'cancelled' guys ever. He's been de-banked, 'de-credit carded', thrown off of every single social media site except for Rumble (X recently let him back on but won't checkmark him), kicked out of Boston University, and even had someone try to assassinate him (the would-be assassin ended up getting shot to death in the act). He's been in the online trenches for a while but he sort of burst onto the mainstream on January 6th when he was at the capitol making speeches. I'm not going to give you a whole background of Nick Fuentes. If you're here, you probably know as much about him as I do, which is whatever is on youtube and X. 

His interview with Piers was really good and interesting, definitely worth watching. But there was one moment really early on that I found most interesting and which has the most implications. 

It was obvious from the start what Piers' strategy was. The 'matrix's' view of Nick is that he sort of plays both sides. He's bombastic and super edgy with his followers and on live streams, but tones it down a little bit in more mainstream, formal interviews, and this is why he has any following at all. The 'boomer-left-center' coalition thought this was some sort of chink in his armor, a crack in the foundation they could exploit. Piers thought he would get the toned down, genteel version of Nick and then hit him with his 'worst' clips from his streams and make him either defend/explain the 'un-defendable' (in their eyes) or, more likely, squirm out of or back away from them. The 'look, they're just jokes' cop out. 

So Piers hits him pretty early on with a clip of Fuentes saying 'yes I am a racist' and asks Nick if he'd like to defend that remark. You can see it in Piers eyes that he thought he had him dead to rights here. And Nick just says 'Yes, I agree with myself, I am racist.' And Piers did the shocked Pikachu face. 

'Oh so you're just saying you're racist?'

'Yes.'

'So you openly admit that you're racist?'

'Yes.'

'You just admitted to the world that you're a racist, Nick, correct?'

'Yes.'

The bulk of the interview went like that. 

'So you don't think women should be able to vote? Really? You're a misogynist?

'Yes.'

Piers really didn't have a whole lot more than that. He made fun of Nick for being a virgin and never being in love which wasn't exactly the home run that I think he thought it was.

But I just thought that exchange was so illuminating because it goes to show how much all of this nonsense is self-inflicted. Their power only extends for as far as you let it. The struggle sessions, the groveling apologies that never get accepted anyways, the cancellations, that shit is all over, because there was never anything backing it up anyway. It was a self inflicted spell we were under. Like one of those weirdo, old timey monk-priests who self flagellate themselves, the only pain comes from the self. Remember that bizarro 15 minute video of the little indie-musician girl apologizing with the ukelele song? She got more backlash for the apology than anything else. 

We have been taught our entire lives that being 'racist' is the worst possible thing you can be. Shoved down out throats at every turn, screeched into our ears: 'diversity is our strength!' 'We're a melting pot!' 'Immigrants built this country!' A wall of angry, bored wine moms with an axe to grind. A tornado of HR ladies looking to jump on a quick zoom call. Bad faith bureaucrats blowing in the wind, parroting whatever they think their most obnoxious Twitter followers want them to. It's like the entire world turned into the worst female middle school teacher you ever had, and for whatever reason, it worked! For like, 30 years! Being considered a racist was about as bad for you socially as just about anything else you can think of. Chris Brown beat the shit of Rhianna, very publicly, and I'm sure Bank of America would happily give him a bank account. He has a blue checkmark. But if you dare say 'ya know, black people sure do commit a lot of crime', or 'I care about Jews and Israel the same amount as they care about me and America' and you are essentially turned into a non-person. This has been the deal for about as long as I can remember.

So for finally a guy sort of in the mainstream, up and coming, to just look straight into the camera and say 'yes' when asked if he stands by his statements that he is a racist (and thinks 'Hitler is cool'), is truly a revolutionary act. It's the first step of many of breaking the spell. 

Now for the record, I don't agree with Nick on everything. And what we're talking about when we say 'racist' here probably isn't what you're thinking and you don't need to at all think that 'Hitler was cool' to get what I'm saying here. 

The main point here, the reason why I wanted to talk about this at all, is just the breaking of the spell. The slight lifting of the fog.

White people, White men especially, have been beaten the fuck down for most of my life, and if I was 15 years younger, it would have been for my entire life. In government, in business, on TV, on every single fucking commercial that exists, in every movie, in art (how many art pieces have you seen mocking Jesus or Christianity? Have you ever seen one mocking any other religious figure? You make one about Islam and you will literally get your head chopped off and have the Pope defend the killers!) It is so ingrained that you don't even notice it anymore. It's just baked into everything. A black person can say 'I think we should kill all White people' to a nodding White person like they're ordering breakfast. Steven Colbert, Anderson Cooper and Joe Biden can say 'Whites will be a minority in America soon and that's exciting!" to absolutely no pushback whatsoever. Somehow, every single writer of ever single article or caption or subtitle or substack all got the memo, at the same time, that they should always capitalize the B in Black but never capitalize the W in White, even when it's in a headline.

I'm not going to go on and on with this point. I've made more than a couple posts now doing just that and looking at the population numbers and the data and whatnot. We are being erased and they aren't even hiding it anymore. They brag about it! 

And the worst part of all it is that it is such an own-goal. It is so unnecessary and evil, to say nothing of the fact that it is entirely baseless. 

This is the official beginning of the end of the 'Post WWII consensus', in my view anyway. You may say the ascent of Donald Trump was the real start to the end, and you may be right, but this is kicking it into another gear. 

After World War 2, 'The blame for the destruction of the World Wars was placed at the feet of nationalistic fervor and loyalty. The strong love that people feel for their own family, kin, and people, stirred to ambition and greatness by natural leaders among them (i.e., demagogues), must be tamped down and deconstructed. From hence forth, nationalism would be tied to fascism, Nazism, and populist authoritarianism. The only reasonable option open to a freedom-loving people was a politically and economically open global society." 

This has largely been the case for nearly 80 years now. One thing this coalition cannot let stand is proud White people. Twenty or more White men gathering? Can't have it! Your God, your leaders, your countries founding fathers, your art, your statues, your history, your culture, your ideas, you, it's all bad and you should be ashamed. So ashamed that we're going to replace you in your own country and if you even notice it, you're bad too. It's honestly amazing that this ever worked at all when you think about it.

So to have this little smiling, calm, Gen Z, self admitted incel virgin, look straight down the barrel of an ABC camera and say "Yea I am racist" with no caveats, no explaining, no back pedaling, no apologizing, no groveling, it's a sign. Whatever credit this Post War Consensus had been banking on has officially run dry. 

And look, you don't have to agree with Nick or with me here on everything to be on board. You just have to stop putting the puck into your own net.

We are not sorry nor are we ashamed, and we're done pretending otherwise. And we don't give a fuck what anyone thinks about it.