NFL Week 14 Betting Recap, A Look Ahead Plus Fanduel VS Draft Kings

 Right on cue, a red week. I knew it was coming. Lost a cool 20 units last week, however it wasn't nearly as bad as it seems because I have so many pending teasers rolled over onto this week. So I have a massive position on tonights game, plus I got in really good on getting NYG at +8.5 and they're now at -2. So I'll be able to Wong both sides of the NYG/WASH game. 

I'll do a quick recap of the betting, outline my position for tonight and then a look ahead into next week plus some more stuff.

As I said in my last post, this week was a YUGE one for Wongs. The MNF game started us off with a nice little win with the PATS blowing out NYG. Then we had quite a few interesting spots in the 1:00 slate. I built up a nice position all week on SEA/ATL. I was sniping ATL money line at +270 all the way up to +320 early in the week. I waited quite patiently for SEA to drop from -7 to -6.5 on my PPH and did a classic 'SEA teased to -.5, ATL money line hedge', effectively giving me SEA moneyline at like -140 odds. That worked out nicely.

I did an old school 'Bill The Cop' teaser with TEN going from +4.5 to +10.5. Again, using Pinnys alt lines as a guide, that bet is a lot better than I would have thought at first. It's right around break even and with the super low total I think it was +EV. It was really just a filler leg for me but when conditions are perfect, those might be decent ones to throw in.

I had NYJ +8.5 from the prior week which I let ride which lost. I had JAX +8.5 for small amounts.

The biggest position for me for the 1:00 clockers though was on the TB/NO game. TB was moving between -8 and -9 all week, so I was able to selectively tease them down to -2.5 a few times. I got a REALLY good number on NO moneyline from FanDuel, so I had a massive 'TB-2.5, NO money line' play. I added in some NO +3.5 at a good number, too. So if TB won by 3, I would have won something like 40 units. It was close too! NO pulled it out in a nail biter so it was fine, but would have been much better if TB won. Did you see any of that games highlights, by the way? TB dropped like 3 sure touchdowns late in the game, plus a bunch of weird turn overs. Oh well.

I had quite a big blunder on the WASH/MIN game. I jumped on WASH +8.5 early in the week for a decent amount. Come Sunday, I see the line moved through the zero and now I was able to bet MIN +7.5. One of my favorite spots in betting, getting both teams in a Wong teaser. The only problem was that both teams were my first legs. So I went big on WASH +8.5 and even bigger on MIN +7.5. It was a good spot, definitely +EV, but I sprayed too much. If that game stayed inside of a TD either way I would have absolutely cleaned up, but the inverse was true. If either team won by more than 8, I would take quite a bath, and quite a bath I ended up taking. Down a good 7 units on this game alone.

The afternoon slate was great. I had all 3 favorites teased down to between -.5 to -2.5 and had some +7.5 for the hedges. LV somehow covered +7.5 with a walk off FG to be down 7. Love it when that happens. (By the way, I saw the Dave Portnoys of the world lose their minds over this. That is Square City. You should really almost never have a team at -7.5. There are just so many other better ways to bet a -7.5 favorite. Doing a teaser like I do is the most obvious one, but you can usually find a way to buy through the 7 profitably with enough line/book shopping. I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I don't think I've ever bet a team naked at -7.5).

Teasing SEA and GB both down to -.5 and then hedging with the opponent money line was the big brain play of the day for me. Both were different time slots and I was able to get really good money line numbers on both opponents at FanDuel, plus a little bit of +7.5 on both. Quite literally free money.

Speaking of FanDuel, this was my first real week using them and I have some thoughts. Number one, the app is bad, borderline terrible. It's 'sticky' feeling, like you have to wait a second after clicking anything. The color scheme is god awful, all wishy washy blues and blacks. The betting history is hard to read. The promos are decent, similar to DK except for one glaring issue: they're mostly $25 max where DK is usually $100 max. $25 max is barely usable. The good thing though is that their money lines on dogs are almost always the best number on the board, or at least close to it. I've found a couple other small exploits on there too that I don't want to talk about just yet. Nothing major. All in all it's for sure worth having but a clear step below DK for usability.

Even though it was a down week, I have so much teaser equity going into this week that I would consider it a good week. The Monday Night game, tonight, is PHI at LAC. PHI was a heavy -2.5, light -3 early in the week, so for a lot of my 3 team teasers, I put PHI +3.5 as my last leg. As the week progressed and the line moved to PHI -2, I switched to LAC +8 and +8.5. And I did put them in probably close to half of all my teasers. So I have a massive middle on the game tonight with PHI +3.5 and LAC +8.5. With free bets and odds boosts I've added more, mostly PHI money line. 

If PHI wins by 9 or more I win 9 units.

If LAC win by 4 or more I win 13 units.

If PHI wins by 1-6 I win 20ish units.

If PHI wins by exactly 7, or if either team wins by 3, I scoop just about everything for over 50 units.

Hoping for a close game tonight, as you can see.

Looking ahead, I see A LOT of good Wong spots for week 15. Except for the Thursday night game, the Arz/Hou game and the 3 games lined at 13, every other single game is Wongable in some fashion. Lots of +1, +1.5s, so that is certainly something to keep an eye on all week. A lot of low totals, too. This could be a holy grail type of week for Wongs, so be on the lookout for another post before Sunday. Perhaps. But I'm jumping on some of these early, for sure.

In other news, there was another 'search' for the MH370 plane the other day. Pretty odd actually, it's been radio silence for almost a decade now and then all in one month we get the Ashton Forbes stuff and then this new 'search'. Weird timing. There's a lot more to discuss with the plane, too. People are really starting to look at the videos in a new light and are starting to actually kind of figure out what happened. Or at least what they think happened, of course. It's pretty insane. That will probably be my next post; more on the missing plane. There really is a lot more to get into.

That's it for today. Do you guys care about these recap posts? I can't tell. I suppose it's better than nothing but it really is the same thing every week. Wong teasers and hedging and middling. I'll probably keep them going but this missing plane is the big thing on my mind right now.

Check back soon and thanks for reading!

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap And A Look Ahead

 Another solid week in the books. Four green weeks in a row and 6 of the last 7 weeks have been green. And with a bunch of pending teaser equity going into this week, I think we can safely say we are running good. It's been nice wrapping things up here every week, too. I think I would have been more easily discouraged around mid October when I was basically breaking even week after week. I wouldn't have thrown in the towel but I probably would have toned it all down at least. But writing it all out and going over everything, it's clear that I was just running bad for a month or so. Now I seem to be on the other side of it. 

So let's dig in, shall we?

The week started off with SF blowing out CAR on Monday Night. If you remember from my last post, I had a big position on that game and even though SF covering 7.5 was the second worst outcome, it still netted me a cool 16ish units. I had BAL teased down to -.5 and -1.5 as the last leg of a few teasers from last week left over which all lost. I hedged out pretty evenly though with CIN money line so that was ok.

The biggest position of the week though was on the NYJ/ATL game. I had NYJ +8.5 as the second leg of a big teaser, so I logged on Sunday morning looking for the best possible number on ATL. And what do you know, my infamous PPH account put up ATL -1 -115 and -120 money line! The market was mostly ATL -3 and -170ish ML. Another one of those times when this PPH account moves a random game WAY into arbable territory and wins! (That was the reason for my quick update post yesterday. I've talked before about how this account moves spreads and totals on games like this, again WAY into arbable territory, and almost always wins. It's like he knows something and baits me into these plays. With the game going into OT it clearly could have gone either way and I'm not at all suggesting this guy "knew something" about this game, but it's just funny how things work.)

Anyway, this account takes a beefy 50 units max bet, so I maxed out ATL both on the spread and ML, and even added in a couple parlays with ATL money line for good measure. I scalped out as much as I wanted so that I locked in profit no matter what. I scalped with mostly NYJ money line, but I also took some +1, +3, +3.5, and I had the +8.5 teaser still live. So if ATL had won by 8 or less it would have been unreal, and if they won by exactly 3 it would have been perfect. SO close! But can't complain about a free roll and I locked up a good 7ish units anyway, completely risk free.

The only other note-worthy play was on the Sunday Night game. I had DEN teased down to PK as the last leg of a bunch of my teasers. I scalped that out with mostly WASH +7.5 and +6.5 which all cashed. I got a little too cute and also hedged with WASH -2.5 instead of the normal +3.5. This game actually had my potential nightmare scenario play out with WASH scoring a TD to go down by 1 and going for two and missing it to lose by exactly 1. DEN was mostly -6 so I had them teased down to a PK and not -1.5, but that is what it would look like. Scary!

I almost exactly broke even live betting which was disappointing. Plenty of middle and scalp opportunities still but it's easy to fuck them up. You gotta fire so fast and everything is constantly moving, so sometimes you get a real good middle or scalp lined up and it vanishes before you can hit both sides. That happened to me twice and I had to lock in a couple small losses. I'm still somewhat figuring out live betting and my set up is not optimized for it (I only have one screen currently. I used to have 3 which is awesome and really the only way to go if you bet/trade like me. And oftentimes I have my daughter on my lap on Sundays so we need a window open for kids youtube videos too.) 

I opened a FanDuel account recently. Actually not really sure why I didn't do that earlier. According to my odds screens, they seem to have the best number on big NFL dog money lines pretty consistently so this should be a good addition to my overall strategy. I already have my whole balance in play, mostly on NYG money line at +300. I have about 4 other units at risk on NYG ML at Draft Kings at about +380 with various odds boosts. Those are all hedges against my main play which is PATS teased down to -1.5 and -.5. 

So if PATS win by 8 or more I win about 9 units, if NYG win outright I win about 3 units. If PATS win by 4-8 I win about 11 units, and if they win by 2 or 3 I win about 20 units. Only nightmare scenario is PATS winning by exactly one. Then I would lose 6 units. 

Looking ahead, it looks like a nice and juicy week for Wongs. On top of the PATS tonight, you have SEA, NYJ, maybe TB, JAX, MIN, DEN and LAR all as Wongable games right now. If you really wanted to get nuts, you could throw in DET as a -3 to +3.5 through the zero screwball teaser. You could also get in on some TEN action if you really want to get crazy. They're mostly +3.5 -115 but a few books have them at +4 -120 for some reason. If you need a leg for a 6.5 point teaser, getting them at +10.5 is probably at least close to break-even. Depends on how the market moves this week. 

My idea/play for the week/tonight is fairly standard now if you've been a regular reader here. Tease PATS down to -1.5 and/or -.5. Depends on your book and the odds and the rule on pushes for how you want to handle having them at -1.5. Then scalp out whatever you don't want at risk on NYG money line. +290 is widely available now and FD has +300. Draft Kings had +320 for most of last week and like I said, with various promos and odds boost they give out, I was able to get down about 4 units at about +380. So I basically have a 'synthetic' money line bet on the PATS with a small +7.5 and +3.5 NYG middle opportunity with the nightmare PATS winning by exactly 1 scenario live. Gotta keep things spicy!

I'll have a crypto post up soon as there are a few things I want to touch on. I will also for sure have more on the missing plane video and more on aliens coming up too. Some political/culture war stuff too. Check back soon!

Quick Post

 Just a quick post here at 10:30 AM EST. I got ATL -1 -115 and Moneyline -120 at my PPH that likes to move lines quite insanely. This will make sense and be important tomorrow. Possibly more to come today.

Quick Update On Last Post

 Quick little update here in case anyone is reading this blog really closely. I have my position for the MNF game mostly finalized here a couple hours before kickoff, and it is quite different from what I summarized it was in my post. Since I basically worked all week to generate this position, I figured it would make sense to be more precise about it. So in the interest of full disclosure and since in my head I'm always writing this blog to an amalgamation of the meanest and most brutal sports betting forum users I can remember, here is my official position for tonight:

SF covers 7.5: +17 units.

CAR wins outright: +6 units.

SF wins by 7: +25 units.

SF wins by 4-6: +27 units

SF wins by 2-3: +35 units.

SF wins by 1: +22 units.

Not too shabby! Let's go SF by 3! I'll actually add a little bit more CAR ML after writing it all out like this. I really should have it my sheets so I can see it like this in real time. This was a good little exercise to do. That's it, talk soon!

NFL Week 12 Betting Recap, NFL Look Ahead And More On Flight MH370

 Another good week last week. Nothing crazy as I only netted a couple units for the week, but I rolled so many teasers and hedges over so that I have a massively juicy position on tonights game. I have SF -.5 to -1.5 as the last leg on just about every teaser I made, so I got myself basically SF money line at about 20 units to win 30. I'll scalp out most on CAR money line (at the somewhat enticing +320 at DK) and then some on CAR +7.5 and +3.5 at +170ish. My final position will be something like: I win 5 units if CAR wins outright, 12 units if SF win by 7 or more, 17 if they win by between 4-7, and 20 units if they win by 2 or 3. Even if SF wins by exactly one, I do fine as most of my teasers are SF -.5. 

Let's take a quick look at how we got here, a little look ahead and then more on the missing plane video.

The first thing that sort of kicked off the betting week for me was my weekly $200 max bet, 25% NFL parlay promo that I've been getting from Draft Kings lately. As I said in my last post, the way I exploit these is a mix of using 4 games in different time slots (the time slot thing has been a great idea and I'm somewhat embarrassed I didn't think of it earlier on), finding off-market numbers (or as off-market as possible), and lastly, looking for teams I'll probably need action as hedges to teasers anyway. And I would consider those factors in that order. And you should be max betting the parlay too, assuming you're going to scalp/hedge at least some of it.

So I had the under in the Thursday night game, CIN +8.5, NO-1.5 and the under in the Monday Night game. The first under bet hit (for the first leg, I generally only scalp up to half of the original bet, if that. If I let anything ride naked, it'll be that very first bet. I can usually find a good enough number though that I do scalp usually about half of it). I was pumped the first leg hit because CIN +8.5 was a great number AND a hedge to my biggest position of the 1:00 slate by far: teasing the Patriots down to -.5 to -2.5. This was a play I was talking a lot about in my last post and I went pretty bananas with it. I had the PATS teased down to mostly -1.5 and scalped out most of it with the juicy +320 Draft Kings money line on CIN. I also had the CIN+8.5 parlay leg and took some CIN +7.5 game day (after scooping up a little bit of PATS -6.5 mid week when Burrow was rumored to play. I felt like there was no chance he played and almost put in a massive bet at PATS -6.5, planning on middling the 7 when the line went back to -7.5. However, the line somehow drifted down to -5.5. This made me re-think the play. Then it did go back to +7.5. If I really had balls, I would have gobbled up -5.5, getting the 6 covered, then middled it with +7.5 gameday like I planned on doing. That would have been awesome and I was close to it).

All in all, I managed to get myself basically a synthetic PATS money line of roughly 3 units to win 5 with a small CIN +8.5/7.5 middle. The only nightmare scenario was PATS winning by exactly 1. I planned on covering that live betting if there were any odds scores, but it never looked like a remote possibility. (The only thing that scares me though with doing these is when the dog is losing by exactly 7 late in the game with the ball. I'm always scared they're going to score a TD and then go for 2 and miss instead trying to tie it with the XP. I'm sure that'll happen to me one day).

Anyway, the game landed pretty close to perfect with the PATS winning by 6. My teasers all won and my big parlay was still alive. 

The 4:00 slate was a little tough to find good legs. One of them I used was JAX, going from -2.5 to +3.5 in one of my 6.5 point 'through the zero' teasers. With the PATS winning and the teaser still being alive, that meant I had to get some ARZ exposure. They were a solid +2 at kickoff, so I put them as the first leg in a few 2 and 3 team teasers and took a nibble of ARZ ML. JAX won by 3 so besides the small ARZ ML bet, everything here won. 

The other 4:00 leg I used was ATL, teasing them up to +7.5. This worked out nicely as I had NO -1.5 as the 3rd leg of my big parlay. So I had a juicy middle of NO -1.5 at big plus odds and ATL +7.5 nearly even odds. I let that ride and did fine with ATL winning outright. But man oh man, if that big 6 point middle hit I would really considered myself to have walked on water.

The other 4:00 leg I used was teasing PHI -2.5 to +3.5 early in the week. I hedged that with DAL money line and could not believe I actually binked that middle. I scooped up a little bit live betting DAL money line at +500, too. Wasn't for a big amount though.

I made a cool 5 units live betting last week. That puts me solidly in the green for the year. Again, the middles I was able to get were close to absurd. Not as insane as two weeks ago but plenty of scalps and fat middles available. I middled the 3 on the JAX game a couple times which is where I made most of my profit. 

I had LAR -.5 last night for a bunch which I hedged mostly out of with TB money line and some +7.5. LAR crushed so it was fine.

The big thing for the week though was the gigantic bet I created for myself on SF tonight. If SF wins by exactly 2 to 7, I will officially be running good.

I had a thought the other day that the way I bet these days: using specific teasers from specific sites, hunting for the best odds and combos, maximizing my edges with hedges, scalps and middles, having access to Pinnacles lines as the worst I can do. Maximizing promos, de-vigging lines and using parlay calculators, sometimes bonus hustling. It's fairly advanced. Not crazy advanced but to a lay-man it definitely is. It made me think, this, in some way, is what big time traders must do on Wall St. I hear them all the time talk about 'creating' things like 'synthetic shorts/longs' and playing with derivatives and shit like that. Even inventing derivative markets. The same way I create myself a 'synthetic money line' combining the right kind of teaser with the right odds with the right team with an opponent money line at a good-enough-number. With stocks, you have all kinds of different options and futures. I'm sure there's a way to do something similar to what I do in sports betting, where you use a bunch of money/credit to make all kinds of related and correlated bets, all ending up with the synthetic bet/exposure that you want. If anything, it's actually probably easier, considering the difference in 'house edges' in each industry. It's something I always think about when thinking about futures on Robinhood. I know there must be some way to do something like buy a ton of Bitcoin and then buy bearish options on it to lock up money no matter what, or at least get yourself far better odds/entrance prices. I'm sure it obviously isn't as easy as that though. Imagine how hard it would be to explain my Wong teaser/underdog money-line strategy to someone who didn't know the first thing about betting? It would be nearly impossible. So I bet there is a way with equities, it's just something that super insiders only know. I don't know, just something I always think about. I often wonder if any of those guys ever wonder the same thing about sports betting? Probably not considering the amount of money in play on Wall Street.

Anyway, looking ahead at the NFL lines, tonights game is still pretty juicy. Anytime you have a 7.5 favorite, you can get creative with teasers as any regular reader here knows by now. You can tease them down to -1.5 and just let it ride as a good +EV leg of a teaser. Or you can go bigger than you normally would on the teaser and scalp out what you don't want to have at risk on the opponent money line. Depending on your teaser odds, you need about +260 or better for this to be profitable. Car is +320 right now pretty widely available so this is an option. You get crushed though if the favorite wins by exactly 1, so, depending on your book and your risk tolerance, you might want to do a 6.5 point teaser to get yourself SF -.5, or basically SF money line. (My book has me do a 6 point teaser and lets me buy half points for way too cheap which is a fun exploit). Know your books rules on ties with teasers, too. Assume it's a loss on any push unless you for sure know different. You can also middle this teaser by betting the opponent on the spread of +7.5 or maybe an alt spread of +3.5. If you really want to cover that chance of getting scooped if the favorite wins by 1, sometimes you can scalp with the opponent +2.5 or +1.5 at big odds. The odds will usually be way worse than the money line though so this is almost never worth it.

GB looks like a decent leg to pair with SF. Same with BAL and then NYJ and then PATS. That's more than enough combos to start getting some exposure and see how the week develops. I love having SF teased down to -.5 and -1.5 tonight though with the CAR +7.5 and +3.5 hedge and ML scalp.

Switching gears to the missing plane video I talked about last post. I've done more digging and honestly, it's fucking insane. I am 99% convinced, at this point, that the two videos of flight MH370 being surrounded by orbs and then vanished into a portal is real. I think it is slam dunk proof of alien tech and I think the world is going to look back on the videos very, very differently in the future. 

I went back and read my post and I was a little bit too all over the place. So I'm going to a very short and concise summation of everything so far. 

So first, the plane goes missing. Months later, the first video (the black and white one taken by a satellite, NOT the thermal vision one) hits youtube, uploaded by a very small, random youtuber named 'RegicideAnon.' This guys channel had under 100 followers and only had a few small UFO videos on them. He does't claim to have made or taken the video and the source says 'confidential.' He posts the video and it gets very little attention. 

A few weeks later, the second video hits youtube, also originally from RegicideAnon. This is the thermal vision video that was taken by a drone. This video has a ton more information in it and is really the smoking gun.

A scientist with a Youtube channel named Ashton Forbes has been the driving force behind everything. He made 2.5 hour video a couple months ago where he goes through literally every single detail, proving that these videos are real. Here is the video. He can be a bit hard to follow at times but overall this dude is doing an amazing job at getting this out there. And he is selling nothing. That's important to consider.

If you're interested in this stuff, I cannot possibly recommend you watch that video any harder. It is just point after point, proving beyond a reasonable doubt that these videos are of Flight MH370 and are real. With the ability to really dissect these videos that we have today, Forbes is able to show the tiny minute details on everything from the way the clouds move to the way they're shaded. The way certain things make a shadow and how some don't. The way the orbs behave. The way they all flatten out and then point at the plane at the very end. The way they actually descend on the middle of the plane in the very last frame. And how the plane is slightly colder and smaller in the very last frame of the video, right before it vanishes. The way that the portal was cold and not hot. The small fire on board the plane and how it behaved in thermal vision. I mean there are literally hundreds of points like this that Forbes makes in his video, and that is only one video of a bunch. He's almost posting too much evidence to be honest.

This situation reminds me of a story I read about years ago in Malcom Gladwells book 'Talking To Strangers'. He tells the story of a man whose name I forget who knew that Bernie Madoff was a fraud years before anyone else did. This guy, we'll call Mike, was a big hedge fund trader guy on Wall St., and his logic was pretty simple. He said that the guys who are trading in these top level, multi billion dollar markets on Wall St all pretty much know each other. They know who they're dealing with because there just isn't that many people trading in these specific markets that Madoff said he was trading in. Mike looked into Madoff, did some digging and found out he was just running an elaborate ponzi scheme. But this Mike guy wasn't a normal dude. He was a bit of a conspiracy guy, thought people were following him, etc. He worked on making a file on Madoff for, I believe, years. He had him dead to rights, pretty much. 

And he tells Gladwell this story about how he put together this gigantic document proving that Madoff was a crook. He dresses up in a disguise complete with top hat, sunglasses and trench coat, puts the document in a suitcase, and goes to something like a press conference where a high ranking IRS official was speaking. He tried to covertly give the IRS guy the suitcase but couldn't get close to him. He said something like he tried to clandestinely give him the suitcase in a hallway but the guy didn't get it. He tried a similar handoff again but it never worked. He never ended up getting the document to anyone and it just died on the vine. Years and years go by and Madoff is finally exposed and this Mike guy was right the whole time. (Fun thing to always remember about Bernie Madoff: he never actually got caught. His kids, who worked with him, found out what he was doing and made him turn himself in. But the government never actually 'caught' him. Makes you wonder how many guys like him are still out there).

Anyway, Gladwell eventually asked him; "Mike, why didn't you just tell the IRS guy normally? Like, make a phone call and a meeting and hand him your evidence?" And Mike said he basically just didn't consider it. The only way he could think of to get this evidence out was to do it in this ridiculous spy novel way because that's just how his brain worked. It made me think of this MH370 plane/Ashton Forbes scenario. The same way the evidence for the biggest financial scam in the history of Wall Street was sitting in some random guys suitcase for years before he got caught is similar to the way that evidence for alien tech and aliens in general has been sitting on youtube, out in the open, for almost a decade now. And Ashton Forbes is so on top of it that he's almost too on top of it. Like I said in my alien post before, there is almost too much evidence of aliens at this point to where it starts to feel like a big mess.

So that's it for me today. I'll have more on this missing plane for sure. And I am telling you right now that you will be hearing about these two plane videos in the future. Remember where you heard about it first!

One Of The Most Intriguing Videos I Have Ever Seen: Flight MH370

I came across a video last week that I just have not been able to get out of my head. It's actually two videos cut together and the second one is the really mind blowing one. But the first part of the video sets the second part up nicely and at only 5 minutes is definitely worth a watch. Even if you're not into this stuff, the whole video is under 18 minutes long and it's worth giving it a shot at least. I was ready to tune it out but after the first minute I was hooked.

The video deals with flight MH370, the Malaysian plane that vanished out of the sky in 2014. Four days after it disappeared, a mysterious video hit the internet (actually two videos), seemingly showing the plane being surrounded by 3 orbs who encircle it very strangely. They seem to be in perfect synchronization but in a very weird pattern. Then they speed up, you see some sort of portal/cloud thing appear and POOF, the plane is gone.

On first look, the video looks fake. I mean, it HAS to be, right? But I'm telling you, watch this video, especially from 5:05 on. 

VIDEO HERE

(Seriously, watch the video. This post won't make much sense without it)

A few things right off the bat. Number one, there are actually two separate videos of the whole thing, one from a satellite and one from a drone that's in thermal vision. The youtube guy in the video I linked to, Ashton Forbes, (who we'll be talking about a lot here) traced the original video back as far as it goes and found where it originated from. The very first time the first video hit the the internet was only four days after the plane vanished. This will come into play later. It was uploaded by a random youtube channel that had something like 100 followers at the time. His previous videos were mostly all UFO sightings, and most of them were bad. Like, clearly fake. The channel and the guy have both been wiped from youtube completely, but Ashton Forbes tracked it down with the archive function thing. There is ZERO chance the original youtube guy made the video. When he posted it, it originally said "source: confidential" when all his other videos named a source. So it seems that whoever wanted to leak this video, sent it to this original guy in order for it to be leaked.

Also, a sneaky interesting fact: the first video that came online was the satellite video. The original description was "Satellite Video, Airliner And UFO's." Nothing about 'missing plane', 'Flight MH370' or 'Malaysian airliner.' This tells me that whoever titled that video probably did it before the story even came out. If someone was going to make these hoax videos, don't you think they'd put something like 'MH370' or 'Missing Malaysian Plane' in the title? It seems to me that whoever made the title did it without even know exactly what it was. It's not a home run piece of evidence obviously but it's something.

Second: Ashton Forbes tracked down both sources of the videos. One is from a military drone and one is from a satellite. He was able to track down the coordinates of the satellite and drone that took the videos and they match up perfectly with where they each were on the videos (you can track these things online, apparently). 

A very important point here that I haven't really seen online that much is the fact that the two videos match up perfectly with each other. The fact that there's two videos matching each other perfectly lowers the odds of them being fake by a shitload. Also, the fact that they would have to have been made inside of four days is suspect. 

Third: the guy who apparently leaked the satellite video, Lt. Commander Edward Lin, was accused of being a spy at first. He went to prison but the court details from his case are redacted. Forbes tried reaching out to him and his lawyer but he said the lawyer deactivated his phones once he got a hold of him, and no one can find 'Edward Lin' on any prison database. And if there was no video, then what crime did this guy commit? And where is he now? No one can find him.

Now when you get into the second video, you really start to pay attention. He goes frame by frame, super zoomed in on the plane and the orbs. 

There's one part of the video that keeps one of the orbs in perfect focus the whole time, super zoomed in and super slow. In the last moments, right before the plane vanishes, the orbs all sort of flatten out and orient themselves perfectly with the middle of the plane. And RIGHT before the plane goes, in the very last frame, the orbs descend on the plane. Then the plane gets blurry and in the infra-red video, the plane is getting smaller and cooler. Then when the 'portal' appears, on the infra-red video it's black, which would mean it's cold. According this Forbes guy, you would have to understand math better than most PHD's to fake the way the orbs moved and to know what that portal thing would look like. He says the the reason the plane looks smaller and cooler in the last frame is that we're seeing it begin to travel at light-speed. (By the way, quite the detail to add in to a fake video; that is, making the plane slightly colder on the very last frame). Another small tidbit: right before the very end of the video where the plane vanishes, the operator of the drone video zooms out. It's the only time he ever zooms out. Ashtons theory is that he knew it was coming and wanted to be sure he captured it perfectly in frame. He doesn't freak out when it disappears either. The camera moves a little bit side to side, almost like the operator is pretending to look for it.

Now look, I'm just describing what I saw in the video. Watch it for yourself to get all the information. There's a TON more. He super-imposes a picture of the plane onto the video and every single little detail is perfect. Like, down to the pixel. Even the way the flames would look in the air on an infra-red video (Ashton and others claim the plane was on fire before it disappeared). And the orbs are actually leaving a trail of their movement in front of themselves, somehow, which you can only see on the infra-red. Again, quite the detail for a hoax.

And the thing that gets me is that obviously this video is either fake or not, right? It's either a fictional video that someone made, or it's a video of something that really happened. And I think that either way, the implications are terrifying. If this is a fake, if someone really did just create both of these videos, synching them up perfectly with each other, then that means that we can no longer trust any video we see anymore. NOTHING can be believed. If this is a fake, it is utterly indistinguishable from a real video. That's almost as scary as if it's real. Don't forget, this is over 10 years old now. If two fakes that convincing can be made in under 4 days, 10 years ago, then no video anywhere can be trusted in 2025. And if it's a real video? Then, I mean, you don't need me to tell you the implications. I mean the plane fucking vanished into thin air! There were apparently 9 or 10 scientists on board who were working on something to do with super conductivity. Did we see AI or humans of the future saving themselves in the past? If that's true, then where did the plane go? What the FUCK was that portal thing? A creepy fact is that quite a few of the family members of the people on the plane said that when they tried calling them, the phone calls would actually connect but there would be silence on the other end. This apparently lasted for days.

Lastly; there have been more than a few comments from different people on different videos saying that fishermen and others reported seeing the plane land at Diego Air Base. Obviously this doesn't mean much on its own but it's interesting. I've seen more than a few comments like that.

One of the main detractors of this video, the 'proof' that it was debunked, was that someone claimed that the clouds in the video matched up perfectly with clouds from a video game. This little 'de-bunking' claim was pretty much the only reason this video and story vanished from the mainstream news quickly, but Ashton said he was able to trace the API data back and showed that the clouds in the video were added in after this plane video came out. Now, I have no idea how to prove that either way. But I will say something here that bears remembering.

Remember the now-famous 'tic-tac' video from a few years ago? 2017 actually. (Link is to the 60 minutes story). There were two videos captured by our military showing what looked like UAPs and one of the radarmen was able to lock onto one of them. The story eventually made it to the front page of the New York Times and the pilot of one of the planes testified in front of Congress. Here is the NYT article but its paywalled.  It was huge news at the time, the pilot testified at the same hearing as David Grousch who you probably remember hearing about. Anyway, the two videos they were talking about are 100% real. The government, Congress and US military confirmed it.

Now, when these videos were first leaked online, they were heavily and immediately 'debunked'. Again, they turned out to be 100% real and they were sitting online, out in open in forums and on 4chan for years. Something you have to know about the UFO community in general is that de-bunking is like the new bunking. People LOVE to de-bunk everything. Nothing is ever real in any UFO forum. So it's important to know that the general vibe with these videos is almost always that they're laughable, obvious fakes at first. So when you see a video like this and you see the first comment or the general consensus is that it's a fake, and an obvious one at that, just know that they said that about every single video and picture, including at least two that have been confirmed as real. And there's probably tens of thousands of very powerful, very rich men who have a LOT to lose if these videos and the technology do get confirmed publicly. And if you think the CIA or whoever else isn't on reddit and on 4chan and in youtube comments, you're woefully naive.

Another point about the video game clouds: if Ashton is right and the clouds were added in after the plane video came online, then that's really all you need to know. That's the smoking gun. The ONLY possible reason someone would have for doing that is to fake de-bunk the plane video. And what possible motive would one have for doing that?

If these two videos, the drone and satellite ones, are fakes, then why? Why would someone do that and not take credit for it? Like a lot of these situations; the orb videos, the crop circles, when you really break it down and think about it logically, it often requires a bigger leap of faith to believe that they're hoaxes (a little bit like atheism and The Creator Theory, actually). Like the group of 50 plus year old men who said they pole vaulted into the center of a crop circle and then back out of it in order to make it without leaving any footprints. Why would someone fake these two videos, matching them up perfectly with each other as well as matching up perfectly with the coordinates of where the satellite and drone actually were that day, and not take credit for it? Even if you could come up with a reason and a motive, it still leaves a gaping hole in the 'how' of it all. Don't forget, these videos are over 10 years old. I doubt anyone could make two fakes this good today, in 2025, with the use of AI and in under 4 days. But in 2014? No fucking chance.

Again, if these videos are fake, then any video anywhere can be a fake. You have industry experts breaking them both down, frame by frame, and concluding that they cannot possibly be fake, and the youtube guy that first uploaded them for sure did not create them.

What if they are real videos? Let's run with that for a minute. At first it looks like aliens but Ashton doesn't think so. He thinks this was a military operation. For one, it was suspect that both a drone and satellite were right there, perfectly able to capture it. He said that drone is a slow recon drone, so there's no way it caught up to the plane. It had to have been in place beforehand. Also, it would have been odd to have a drone as close as it was to the plane by chance. His theory is that it was the US military using alien tech to either save this plane or disappear it, and it had something to do with sending a message to China and with the 10 super conductor scientists on board. No one can possibly know the reason obviously, but the bottom line, in my opinion, is that I believe there is a greater than 50% chance these two videos are real. That means that at the very least, someone on the planet had access to off-world tech in 2014. Either that or it really was aliens. Either way, we're talking portals, time travel, travel at the speed of light, orbs, black holes... I mean, again, assuming these videos are real, this is earth shattering. 

I've been following this Ashton Forbes guy since seeing this video and he seems like the real deal. He's a real scientist who interviews all kinds of real deal scientists and physicists. It's hard to really follow what he's talking about a lot of the time, but there's one thing about him I instantly understood and it made me believe he's the real deal: he gets in these back-and-forth dick measuring contests with other scientists/physicists. A thing I learned from high level sports betting and learning about science and scientists later on is that high level fields seem to be nearly exclusively moved forward by the top guys absolutely hating each other. Even going back to the 1600's with scientists sending nasty letters back and forth, trying to disprove each other and getting into these life long vendettas. The top guys in the top fields are all like this, and Ashton Forbes is one of these guys. I saw it constantly when I was full-time sports betting. The top guys on the forums would go at each others throats, spilling their closely guarded secrets in order to make a point to a stranger. That's how I learned half the shit I know about sports betting. I know this is a long way to go to make this point but I do think it's worth making. The fake guys always pussyfoot around, trying to fit in with everyone. If not they get exposed quickly. The real deal guys are constantly in the trenches fighting with each other.

So that's about it. The main thing I wanted to do here is just share this video. I think this is something people will look back on very differently in the future. Will we ever know the truth? Probably not. But I do honestly believe that these videos are real and we saw evidence of off world technology and possibly of either time travel and/or travel at the speed of light. Obviously it's fucking insane if true.

I have more to say about betting this week and a lot more on crypto, but I'll save that for the next post. I'll try to get it up before Sunday but we'll see.

Thanks for reading, talk soon!

NFL Week 11 Betting Recap, Looking Ahead, Bitcoin And More

 I have my missing plane/alien tech/orb post in the works, but I had to make a betting recap post today. I had my single best week of not only the year, but since early 2021. I absolutely walked on water yesterday so let's do a recap as well as a look ahead as I see a couple intriguing Week 12 spots already. A couple more random things I want to touch on as well.

Per my last post, I mentioned that this year has been a somewhat disappointing one for me betting wise. Going into last week, I was up almost exactly one unit for the NFL season. That is dreadful. Not only that, but it felt like I've been generating all kinds of really good spots all season yet running quite bad, especially live betting. I didn't really get too discouraged though and just kept hammering away, trusting the process. Well last week I finally managed to cash in on a lot of the +EV/Sklansky bucks I've been stacking. It was a nearly divine week so let us dive in!

My main Wong bets were: GB -1 and -1.5. BAL -2.5, DET +7.5, 8.5 and 9.5. A little bit of ARZ +8.5 and WASH +8.5.

I hit PHI +7.5 on the MNF game as well as the under on the PATS Thursday night game, but nothing big. The first big position of the week was the early Sunday game of WASH/MIA in Spain. (How great are these 9:30 AM Sunday games, by the way? Great to have on in the background as you make a big Sunday breakfast. I imagine someday in the future there being an NFL game on every single time slot, every single day). The line was hovering between WASH +2.5 and +3, so I don't usually Wong these teams. However, earlier in the week, I got a nice +25% Draft Kings promo with a $200 max bet for a 4 team NFL parlay. The way I try to exploit promo's like this is to make 4 bets on teams all playing at different times. That way I can arb/middle each one and make money no matter what happens. I line shop and find 4 decent bets on their own, de-vig each line (using Pinnacle as the true line) and put the parlay into a parlay calculator. With the 25% odds boost, I was making a +EV parlay on its own. My first leg was the under in the PATS game which won. My second leg was MIA -2.5. Now I start hunting for +EV spots on WASH. I was able to get +130 on the money line which was off market at the time (and through the close) as well as +3 -120. Both were good bets. On the morning of, lots of money came in on WASH so the line drifted to +2.5, +2. Now it was an official Wong. With my big parlay now as the 'hedge', I fired WASH +8.5 in a bunch of teasers and whatya know, it landed perfectly with MIA winning by 3. My parlay was still alive, my WASH teasers were still alive and I pushed on WASH +3. A very good start.

For the 1:00 slate, my parlay had LAC ML as the next leg. Now with 2 of the 4 legs won already, I could hedge/middle even more. I found a breakeven +3 on JAX and unloaded on it pretty heavy. JAX blew them out so the parlay died but I was able to extract a good amount of value from it. Playing/hedging parlays like this really isn't the by-the-book way to do it, but if you can find at least break even hedges, it's completely fine. Super long term, it's probably better to just ride naked on the parlay. But if you can find at least breakeven hedges and over-bet the original parlay to maximize the odds boost, planning on hedging, it's a good move. Always good to remember: you can run worse for longer than you think.

My biggest play of the one o clockers though was on the GB/NYG game. DK put up a juicy +320 for a while yesterday on the NYG money line, so I did a classic little GB teaser hedged with NYG ML. I got GB at -1.5 and then -.5, so the only nightmare scenario was a tie. GB winning by exactly 1 would have stung pretty bad too, but I was fine with the risk. With both plays being +EV, I basically fired as much as I possibly could. I sniped a nice little NYG +7.5 -105 at one point too, only for two units though. I basically made it so I was 'big free-rolling' on GB money line with a small little NYG +7.5 hedge. As you know, GB won by 7 so it landed perfectly.

I got in bad early last week on a couple HOU -1.5 Wongs that I hedged with TEN +7.5. HOU won by 3 so again, perfect.

On to the 4:00 slate. I had ARZ +8.5 which was literally over after the first 4 possessions of the game. Luckily it was small exposure, but unluckily, it was the only 4:00 game I didn't hedge. I simply ran out of time after the GB game took so long and looked like it could go either way all the way to the end. I planned on hedging on SF betting live, but the line literally went from -3 to -7.5 after the very first possession. So I had to bet SF -7.5 -110 and just lock in a small loss. The only real blunder of the day.

I had LAR +3.5 in a couple of my screwball-through-the-zero Wongs that I didn't love but needed the 6.5 point leg. I hedged that with SEA ML and -2.5 plus odds which was a little bit of a bummer. If I hadn't got so cute and played SEA +3 or even +2.5, I would have binked both sides. Certainly not complaining though. 

I had DEN +10.5 (same logic as the LAR +3.5 bet. I was piling in on GB -.5 as a 6.5 point teaser for which I needed 4:00 or later legs to pair with. Teasing a team from +4 to +10.5 is generally pretty bad, but not as bad as I thought when I compared it to Pinnacles alt-line of DEN +10.5. And does anyone remember the infamous 'Bill The Cop' road dogs teaser strategy? Only true OG's will. Real quick, Bill The Cop was a big poster on the SBR forums back in the day, and he apparently found that teasing road dogs from exactly +4.5 to +10.5 was profitable for a good 5 years or so. For whatever reason, that caused a SHIT SHOW on the forums. (It really is hard to explain early 2000s forum culture these days). The whole thing even made it into Justin7's 'Conquering Risk' book. Long story short, it was more of a function of road dogs over performing for a few years until the market caught up, and less of a function of the teasers themselves being any good. But if you ever need a 6 or 6.5 point 'filler' leg for a teaser, you can do a lot worse than going from 4.5 to 10.5. I wouldn't consider it a +EV leg on its own though). Anyway, DEN won straight up so it was a good result. If KC had won by between 7-10, it would have been perfect though.

Then we come to the BAL/CLE game. BAL -1.5 and -2.5 was my second biggest Wong exposure of the day. I hedged with mostly CLE +3.5, but also some ML and +7.5. BAL won by 7 so it was nearly perfect. I attacked this game pretty heavily in live betting which I'll get to soon.

Finally, we get to the Sunday Night game. DET was a light +2.5 all week, so while it wasn't a great leg on its own, I used it as the last leg in most of my teasers. And as my teasers were all winning, it meant I had a really big position of DET +7.5, 8.5 and even 9.5 going into the game. I was getting ready to hedge out of it at mostly PHI -7.5 for +230 when I stopped and thought about it some more. Why add in this last leg at all if I'm just going to completely hedge out of it? And getting only +230 on PHI -7.5 meant I would be essentially paying money to do so (as stated here before, you need about +260 or better to hedge out of a 3 teamer profitably). So I fired only a couple units on PHI -7.5 and then hedged with PHI -3.5, a little bit of money line and -2.5, and then the bulk of it at -5 at Pinnacles price. And BINK! PHI wins by 7, nearly perfect. Only thing that would have been slightly better was a PHI win by 8 but I'm not THAT greedy.

So the Wongs were good to me last week. Very good. But as good as they were, live betting was even better. I CRUSHED live betting last week. I got myself almost into the green for the entire year in basically one day. As I said last week, I couldn't believe how all over the place the live lines were between my PPH and DK. Well this week was no different. The only difference was that I didn't treat DK as an efficient market and just did nearly 100% middles/scalps. And boy did it work. I was getting fat 2 and 3 point middles on totals. On more than one occasion, I got a scalp and a middle on the same bet! (Over 40.5 +130, under 41.5 -115 for example). I managed to middle the 7 on the BAL/CLE game like 4 times, all mostly at the same time. And this was with just two books and a toddler hanging on me for some of it. Like I said last post, live betting still seems very ripe. I have half a mind to open up 2 or 3 more legal accounts and just go bonkers betting live the rest of the season. I find it surprising and actually somewhat encouraging that books even offer live betting the way they do. DK essentially puts up a line and leaves it there for the entire game. When there's a full slate of games, there is no way to stay on top of everything the way they really need to. I know it's obviously a model/algorithm and there isn't some guy frantically changing the lines. But you gotta know about when guys get injured and move in and out of the game, the changing motivations, the coaches tendencies, the game state, etc. The book has to be on top of every single line for every single game, all day and for the whole day. You just sit back and pick em off, one by one. It almost doesn't seem fair!

All in all, a tremendous week. However, I don't want to get too ahead of myself here. I'm still slightly down for the year live betting and I'm down a good chunk lifetime (a lot of live bets I made in the past were hedges). But I'm not really reacting to the result, more-so how wide the discrepancies were between my PPH and DK. And I lost live betting on my PPH. That's how much I crushed DK in it. For the first time since getting this account, I'm actually starting to get nervous about getting the boot. I usually get some kind of useable promo or odds boost every day, but nothing today. If/when I do get kicked out, I'll just start using FanDuel or something else similar. I really should have a Fanduel account already, but I just don't have the time on Sundays anymore to really lock in all day like I used to. 

Anyway, like I said, I definitely don't want to get too over my ski's here after just one good week. Not too high, not too low. Even though it put me back on track to have a good/average year, this result would have been a blip when I was full-time. I haven't had a week like this in years though and it felt great today doing my weekly numbers. I knew I was due! Hopefully we can keep this going and ride some momentum into the second half of the year.

Speaking of looking ahead, I see a good 'near free money' opportunity already next week. The Patriots are heavy -7 favorites at CIN and you can get CIN money line at +280 pretty easily right now. So I like teasing PATS down to -1 and maybe even -.5 if your teaser odds are good for a big chunk and hedging it with CIN ML at +280 or better. Right now I have a 3 teamer with PATS -1.5 hedged with CIN money line. The other two legs are JAX +3.5 (through the zero, not great but not terrible) and SF -.5. (As I'm typing this, the PATS are getting bet up to -7 -120 and -7.5 -110 in some places). I like the idea of getting in early on the Patriots at -1/-.5 and hedging out a little bit on CIN money line. Then keep an eye on the line all week and take more nibbles of CIN money line as the line gets better. I'm already seeing some +290 in just the time it took me to write this post. 

ATL/NO looks like a possible 'get both sides of a +7.5 teaser' spot. The line has already bounced around through the zero a little bit, so I'll look for a +1.5 on either side and hit it. 

We have some correlated parlay potential with the JETS and SEA games. I'll probably have a small full game or first half parlay on both games in some fashion. If you can tie in an odds boost that would be great.

And finally, GB, PATS and SF look like possible teaser/ML hedge plays. We'll have to see how the lines move.

Changing gears here, crypto is taking a shit as we speak. Looks like BTC is about to go sub $90k and alts are getting hit even harder. With a weekly close below the 50 day moving average ($100kish), it's looking more and more like $125k was the top and this cycle is over. If true, this has a LOT of interesting implications. The biggest one being the complete lack of an alt-coin season. I made the point a while back that it really doesn't make much sense at all to accumulate a stack of any kind of alt-coin, certainly not one without a capped supply (looking at you ETH). If you do need an alt coin to do things on the blockchain, it seems to me that it would make much more sense to hold BTC as your wealth preservation stack and then use it to buy alts when/if the need arises. Are we seeing the market digest this notion in real time? It's much too early to say for sure either way, but it is looking more and more likely. If I was sitting on a big bag of ETH or Matic or Solana or whatever else right now, I'd be pretty nervous. I'm about 60% BTC, 40% alts currently and I want to get that closer to 80/20 eventually. It looks like I might have to wait a whole cycle for that though. Even if this cycle top is in, and even if alts are dying, I still think we'll get at least one more alt season eventually. They're just too sexy-seeming for n00bs to have the potential drained out of them completely in 2025. Maybe alts will get on some sort of 8 year cycle? Like they miss every other cycle? Who knows. All I know is I'm still stacking BTC and probably will forever. One positive aspect of no alt-season/blow off top is that we probably won't get such a brutal low. I have $50-$70K in mind as the bear market low, or about a 50% drawdown. Bear cycles usually get to about 80% down from the high, which would put the low at about $25k. But I think as the asset matures and the market cap grows, the swings are going to get less and less volatile both ways. It just makes logical sense that a $2 trillion asset would be less swingy than one with an $800 million marketcap, like last cycle.

One good lesson to take away from the last month or so has been that patience almost always gets rewarded. Every BTC buy I've made since April of this year is now underwater. My overall BTC price is $37kish so I'm still sitting very pretty. But nearly every single 'chasing it' / FOMO buy I've ever made has been regrettable, only because I could have gotten a much better price later on. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing. I will for sure be looking to increase my stack with this upcoming bear market, whether it's now or later down the line. That's the time to buy, not when it's above its all time high. And if you're out there and feel like you missed the boat on Bitcoin, get yourself ready. Start buying soon, go slow, never panic sell, and if you're going to dabble in alts keep it to 50% of your total MAX. NoT FiNaCiAl AdViCe though!

Another very important lesson that I learned from last bear cycle was that no one called the bottom. I want to repeat that because I think it's so important. NO ONE, at least no one that I'm aware of anyway, called $15k as last cycles bottom. Everyone thought it was going lower, and I do mean everyone. Really good thing to keep in mind in the coming months/years.

This is getting long so I'm going to wrap it up soon. I have a lot more to say about crypto and the possible end of the four year cycle though. The next couple weeks/months into the new year are going to be huge, especially for the future implications. I want to do another Stonks update as well. My ROI in Stocks is actually higher than it is for crypto for the first time ever, which is interesting.

Lastly, I want to share a cool link/video I saw recently. Here you go. It's a poker hand from a massive $500k/$1k no-limit game (plus a $2k big blind ante because why not? Talk about nose bleed stakes). The hand itself is incredible to watch if you like poker like me. It's a heads up pot between Nik Airball and Alan Keating. Keating has quietly become one of, if not THE best all around live poker players in the world right now. He so looks and acts the part, too. Has that big 'I'm good with math' forehead. Dresses really nice, carries himself well, plays like a super controlled lunatic, always gives good interviews. If it weren't for the fact that he's such a winner, he seems like he would be a joy to play with. Just seems like a really solid dude all around. Then you have Nik Airball, who is almost like the bizarro Keating. Loud, obnoxious, spewy, looks and acts like a slob. I'd bet money that he often smells bad. He loves to slow roll too which is a new thing in the games that I can't stand.

Anyway, Airball opens pre with 65 of diamonds and only Alan calls in the big blind with 84 off suit. Alan making this call (with the straddler behind him because of course there's a straddle. $3500 in dead money in the pot before anyone gets dealt a card just isn't enough) out of position with 84 off is one of those things where only when you really know the rules, can you break them. And this is just straight up disrespect for Airball but it'll make more sense in a minute.

So the flop comes 843, two diamonds. Alan flops top two pair, Airball flops an open ended straight flush draw. Very important context here: they are both SUPER deep. Effective stack is $1.1 million (of real money), or over 1,000 big blinds. Alan check raises pretty big, Airball calls, and the turn is one of the worst cards in the deck for Alan: an off suit 3. It pairs the board so now Alan loses to any pocket pair of 99 or above in Airballs hand. Alan bets near pot and now Airball raises 3x. Most everyone would fold here but Alan calls with the smoothness of Philly cream cheese. Pot is now $550k and the river is an Ace of Spades. So Alan has a super weak two pair and Airball misses entirely. Alan checks and Airball bets near full pot of $525k. The pot is $1.07 M now. Alan thinks and thinks and eventually finds the call! $1.6 million dollar pot, the biggest pot in the history of televised poker. 

It's an awesome hand to watch on its own, but the reason I wanted to post it was because of the interview he gave after. Besides the interviewer being terrible (can ANY interviewer just ask one question and then shut the fuck up?!) I thought it was very revealing. He makes the somewhat obvious point about how Airballs line made no sense unless he had exactly A3 of clubs. But then he says that Airball never bluffs with big amounts, and recalls how he (Alan) said that at the table earlier multiple times. "I said that a couple times in an hour, so I think I planted the seed in his head where it became somewhat of a challenge." Alan essentially challenged Airball to run a huge bluff against him, but did it in such a subtle manner that Airball didn't think Alan was aware of it. He basically stayed exactly one level above Airball, which is exactly where you want to be all the time. (If you're two levels above, you're a level under. This is the game of 'he knows that I know that he knows that I know, etc.) It's a super interesting look into the leveling wars that take place at games like this and I just found the whole thing to be really cool. Maybe you will too!

That's that for today. Thanks for reading, leave a comment why don't ya, and check back soon! We're talking crypto, aliens, anti-gravity and teleportation! 

BTC price: $92k

BTC marketcap: $1.83T

Overall crypto marketcap: $3.11T

BTC dominance (including stables): 58.8%

ETH dominance: 11.6%

Total cryptos on coin marketcap: 27.2 M

Coin marketcap fear/greed: 17/100