Quick Update On Last Post

 Quick little update here in case anyone is reading this blog really closely. I have my position for the MNF game mostly finalized here a couple hours before kickoff, and it is quite different from what I summarized it was in my post. Since I basically worked all week to generate this position, I figured it would make sense to be more precise about it. So in the interest of full disclosure and since in my head I'm always writing this blog to an amalgamation of the meanest and most brutal sports betting forum users I can remember, here is my official position for tonight:

SF covers 7.5: +17 units.

CAR wins outright: +6 units.

SF wins by 7: +25 units.

SF wins by 4-6: +27 units

SF wins by 2-3: +35 units.

SF wins by 1: +22 units.

Not too shabby! Let's go SF by 3! I'll actually add a little bit more CAR ML after writing it all out like this. I really should have it my sheets so I can see it like this in real time. This was a good little exercise to do. That's it, talk soon!

NFL Week 12 Betting Recap, NFL Look Ahead And More On Flight MH370

 Another good week last week. Nothing crazy as I only netted a couple units for the week, but I rolled so many teasers and hedges over so that I have a massively juicy position on tonights game. I have SF -.5 to -1.5 as the last leg on just about every teaser I made, so I got myself basically SF money line at about 20 units to win 30. I'll scalp out most on CAR money line (at the somewhat enticing +320 at DK) and then some on CAR +7.5 and +3.5 at +170ish. My final position will be something like: I win 5 units if CAR wins outright, 12 units if SF win by 7 or more, 17 if they win by between 4-7, and 20 units if they win by 2 or 3. Even if SF wins by exactly one, I do fine as most of my teasers are SF -.5. 

Let's take a quick look at how we got here, a little look ahead and then more on the missing plane video.

The first thing that sort of kicked off the betting week for me was my weekly $200 max bet, 25% NFL parlay promo that I've been getting from Draft Kings lately. As I said in my last post, the way I exploit these is a mix of using 4 games in different time slots (the time slot thing has been a great idea and I'm somewhat embarrassed I didn't think of it earlier on), finding off-market numbers (or as off-market as possible), and lastly, looking for teams I'll probably need action as hedges to teasers anyway. And I would consider those factors in that order. And you should be max betting the parlay too, assuming you're going to scalp/hedge at least some of it.

So I had the under in the Thursday night game, CIN +8.5, NO-1.5 and the under in the Monday Night game. The first under bet hit (for the first leg, I generally only scalp up to half of the original bet, if that. If I let anything ride naked, it'll be that very first bet. I can usually find a good enough number though that I do scalp usually about half of it). I was pumped the first leg hit because CIN +8.5 was a great number AND a hedge to my biggest position of the 1:00 slate by far: teasing the Patriots down to -.5 to -2.5. This was a play I was talking a lot about in my last post and I went pretty bananas with it. I had the PATS teased down to mostly -1.5 and scalped out most of it with the juicy +320 Draft Kings money line on CIN. I also had the CIN+8.5 parlay leg and took some CIN +7.5 game day (after scooping up a little bit of PATS -6.5 mid week when Burrow was rumored to play. I felt like there was no chance he played and almost put in a massive bet at PATS -6.5, planning on middling the 7 when the line went back to -7.5. However, the line somehow drifted down to -5.5. This made me re-think the play. Then it did go back to +7.5. If I really had balls, I would have gobbled up -5.5, getting the 6 covered, then middled it with +7.5 gameday like I planned on doing. That would have been awesome and I was close to it).

All in all, I managed to get myself basically a synthetic PATS money line of roughly 3 units to win 5 with a small CIN +8.5/7.5 middle. The only nightmare scenario was PATS winning by exactly 1. I planned on covering that live betting if there were any odds scores, but it never looked like a remote possibility. (The only thing that scares me though with doing these is when the dog is losing by exactly 7 late in the game with the ball. I'm always scared they're going to score a TD and then go for 2 and miss instead trying to tie it with the XP. I'm sure that'll happen to me one day).

Anyway, the game landed pretty close to perfect with the PATS winning by 6. My teasers all won and my big parlay was still alive. 

The 4:00 slate was a little tough to find good legs. One of them I used was JAX, going from -2.5 to +3.5 in one of my 6.5 point 'through the zero' teasers. With the PATS winning and the teaser still being alive, that meant I had to get some ARZ exposure. They were a solid +2 at kickoff, so I put them as the first leg in a few 2 and 3 team teasers and took a nibble of ARZ ML. JAX won by 3 so besides the small ARZ ML bet, everything here won. 

The other 4:00 leg I used was ATL, teasing them up to +7.5. This worked out nicely as I had NO -1.5 as the 3rd leg of my big parlay. So I had a juicy middle of NO -1.5 at big plus odds and ATL +7.5 nearly even odds. I let that ride and did fine with ATL winning outright. But man oh man, if that big 6 point middle hit I would really considered myself to have walked on water.

The other 4:00 leg I used was teasing PHI -2.5 to +3.5 early in the week. I hedged that with DAL money line and could not believe I actually binked that middle. I scooped up a little bit live betting DAL money line at +500, too. Wasn't for a big amount though.

I made a cool 5 units live betting last week. That puts me solidly in the green for the year. Again, the middles I was able to get were close to absurd. Not as insane as two weeks ago but plenty of scalps and fat middles available. I middled the 3 on the JAX game a couple times which is where I made most of my profit. 

I had LAR -.5 last night for a bunch which I hedged mostly out of with TB money line and some +7.5. LAR crushed so it was fine.

The big thing for the week though was the gigantic bet I created for myself on SF tonight. If SF wins by exactly 2 to 7, I will officially be running good.

I had a thought the other day that the way I bet these days: using specific teasers from specific sites, hunting for the best odds and combos, maximizing my edges with hedges, scalps and middles, having access to Pinnacles lines as the worst I can do. Maximizing promos, de-vigging lines and using parlay calculators, sometimes bonus hustling. It's fairly advanced. Not crazy advanced but to a lay-man it definitely is. It made me think, this, in some way, is what big time traders must do on Wall St. I hear them all the time talk about 'creating' things like 'synthetic shorts/longs' and playing with derivatives and shit like that. Even inventing derivative markets. The same way I create myself a 'synthetic money line' combining the right kind of teaser with the right odds with the right team with an opponent money line at a good-enough-number. With stocks, you have all kinds of different options and futures. I'm sure there's a way to do something similar to what I do in sports betting, where you use a bunch of money/credit to make all kinds of related and correlated bets, all ending up with the synthetic bet/exposure that you want. If anything, it's actually probably easier, considering the difference in 'house edges' in each industry. It's something I always think about when thinking about futures on Robinhood. I know there must be some way to do something like buy a ton of Bitcoin and then buy bearish options on it to lock up money no matter what, or at least get yourself far better odds/entrance prices. I'm sure it obviously isn't as easy as that though. Imagine how hard it would be to explain my Wong teaser/underdog money-line strategy to someone who didn't know the first thing about betting? It would be nearly impossible. So I bet there is a way with equities, it's just something that super insiders only know. I don't know, just something I always think about. I often wonder if any of those guys ever wonder the same thing about sports betting? Probably not considering the amount of money in play on Wall Street.

Anyway, looking ahead at the NFL lines, tonights game is still pretty juicy. Anytime you have a 7.5 favorite, you can get creative with teasers as any regular reader here knows by now. You can tease them down to -1.5 and just let it ride as a good +EV leg of a teaser. Or you can go bigger than you normally would on the teaser and scalp out what you don't want to have at risk on the opponent money line. Depending on your teaser odds, you need about +260 or better for this to be profitable. Car is +320 right now pretty widely available so this is an option. You get crushed though if the favorite wins by exactly 1, so, depending on your book and your risk tolerance, you might want to do a 6.5 point teaser to get yourself SF -.5, or basically SF money line. (My book has me do a 6 point teaser and lets me buy half points for way too cheap which is a fun exploit). Know your books rules on ties with teasers, too. Assume it's a loss on any push unless you for sure know different. You can also middle this teaser by betting the opponent on the spread of +7.5 or maybe an alt spread of +3.5. If you really want to cover that chance of getting scooped if the favorite wins by 1, sometimes you can scalp with the opponent +2.5 or +1.5 at big odds. The odds will usually be way worse than the money line though so this is almost never worth it.

GB looks like a decent leg to pair with SF. Same with BAL and then NYJ and then PATS. That's more than enough combos to start getting some exposure and see how the week develops. I love having SF teased down to -.5 and -1.5 tonight though with the CAR +7.5 and +3.5 hedge and ML scalp.

Switching gears to the missing plane video I talked about last post. I've done more digging and honestly, it's fucking insane. I am 99% convinced, at this point, that the two videos of flight MH370 being surrounded by orbs and then vanished into a portal is real. I think it is slam dunk proof of alien tech and I think the world is going to look back on the videos very, very differently in the future. 

I went back and read my post and I was a little bit too all over the place. So I'm going to a very short and concise summation of everything so far. 

So first, the plane goes missing. Months later, the first video (the black and white one taken by a satellite, NOT the thermal vision one) hits youtube, uploaded by a very small, random youtuber named 'RegicideAnon.' This guys channel had under 100 followers and only had a few small UFO videos on them. He does't claim to have made or taken the video and the source says 'confidential.' He posts the video and it gets very little attention. 

A few weeks later, the second video hits youtube, also originally from RegicideAnon. This is the thermal vision video that was taken by a drone. This video has a ton more information in it and is really the smoking gun.

A scientist with a Youtube channel named Ashton Forbes has been the driving force behind everything. He made 2.5 hour video a couple months ago where he goes through literally every single detail, proving that these videos are real. Here is the video. He can be a bit hard to follow at times but overall this dude is doing an amazing job at getting this out there. And he is selling nothing. That's important to consider.

If you're interested in this stuff, I cannot possibly recommend you watch that video any harder. It is just point after point, proving beyond a reasonable doubt that these videos are of Flight MH370 and are real. With the ability to really dissect these videos that we have today, Forbes is able to show the tiny minute details on everything from the way the clouds move to the way they're shaded. The way certain things make a shadow and how some don't. The way the orbs behave. The way they all flatten out and then point at the plane at the very end. The way they actually descend on the middle of the plane in the very last frame. And how the plane is slightly colder and smaller in the very last frame of the video, right before it vanishes. The way that the portal was cold and not hot. The small fire on board the plane and how it behaved in thermal vision. I mean there are literally hundreds of points like this that Forbes makes in his video, and that is only one video of a bunch. He's almost posting too much evidence to be honest.

This situation reminds me of a story I read about years ago in Malcom Gladwells book 'Talking To Strangers'. He tells the story of a man whose name I forget who knew that Bernie Madoff was a fraud years before anyone else did. This guy, we'll call Mike, was a big hedge fund trader guy on Wall St., and his logic was pretty simple. He said that the guys who are trading in these top level, multi billion dollar markets on Wall St all pretty much know each other. They know who they're dealing with because there just isn't that many people trading in these specific markets that Madoff said he was trading in. Mike looked into Madoff, did some digging and found out he was just running an elaborate ponzi scheme. But this Mike guy wasn't a normal dude. He was a bit of a conspiracy guy, thought people were following him, etc. He worked on making a file on Madoff for, I believe, years. He had him dead to rights, pretty much. 

And he tells Gladwell this story about how he put together this gigantic document proving that Madoff was a crook. He dresses up in a disguise complete with top hat, sunglasses and trench coat, puts the document in a suitcase, and goes to something like a press conference where a high ranking IRS official was speaking. He tried to covertly give the IRS guy the suitcase but couldn't get close to him. He said something like he tried to clandestinely give him the suitcase in a hallway but the guy didn't get it. He tried a similar handoff again but it never worked. He never ended up getting the document to anyone and it just died on the vine. Years and years go by and Madoff is finally exposed and this Mike guy was right the whole time. (Fun thing to always remember about Bernie Madoff: he never actually got caught. His kids, who worked with him, found out what he was doing and made him turn himself in. But the government never actually 'caught' him. Makes you wonder how many guys like him are still out there).

Anyway, Gladwell eventually asked him; "Mike, why didn't you just tell the IRS guy normally? Like, make a phone call and a meeting and hand him your evidence?" And Mike said he basically just didn't consider it. The only way he could think of to get this evidence out was to do it in this ridiculous spy novel way because that's just how his brain worked. It made me think of this MH370 plane/Ashton Forbes scenario. The same way the evidence for the biggest financial scam in the history of Wall Street was sitting in some random guys suitcase for years before he got caught is similar to the way that evidence for alien tech and aliens in general has been sitting on youtube, out in the open, for almost a decade now. And Ashton Forbes is so on top of it that he's almost too on top of it. Like I said in my alien post before, there is almost too much evidence of aliens at this point to where it starts to feel like a big mess.

So that's it for me today. I'll have more on this missing plane for sure. And I am telling you right now that you will be hearing about these two plane videos in the future. Remember where you heard about it first!

One Of The Most Intriguing Videos I Have Ever Seen: Flight MH370

I came across a video last week that I just have not been able to get out of my head. It's actually two videos cut together and the second one is the really mind blowing one. But the first part of the video sets the second part up nicely and at only 5 minutes is definitely worth a watch. Even if you're not into this stuff, the whole video is under 18 minutes long and it's worth giving it a shot at least. I was ready to tune it out but after the first minute I was hooked.

The video deals with flight MH370, the Malaysian plane that vanished out of the sky in 2014. Four days after it disappeared, a mysterious video hit the internet (actually two videos), seemingly showing the plane being surrounded by 3 orbs who encircle it very strangely. They seem to be in perfect synchronization but in a very weird pattern. Then they speed up, you see some sort of portal/cloud thing appear and POOF, the plane is gone.

On first look, the video looks fake. I mean, it HAS to be, right? But I'm telling you, watch this video, especially from 5:05 on. 

VIDEO HERE

(Seriously, watch the video. This post won't make much sense without it)

A few things right off the bat. Number one, there are actually two separate videos of the whole thing, one from a satellite and one from a drone that's in thermal vision. The youtube guy in the video I linked to, Ashton Forbes, (who we'll be talking about a lot here) traced the original video back as far as it goes and found where it originated from. The very first time the first video hit the the internet was only four days after the plane vanished. This will come into play later. It was uploaded by a random youtube channel that had something like 100 followers at the time. His previous videos were mostly all UFO sightings, and most of them were bad. Like, clearly fake. The channel and the guy have both been wiped from youtube completely, but Ashton Forbes tracked it down with the archive function thing. There is ZERO chance the original youtube guy made the video. When he posted it, it originally said "source: confidential" when all his other videos named a source. So it seems that whoever wanted to leak this video, sent it to this original guy in order for it to be leaked.

Also, a sneaky interesting fact: the first video that came online was the satellite video. The original description was "Satellite Video, Airliner And UFO's." Nothing about 'missing plane', 'Flight MH370' or 'Malaysian airliner.' This tells me that whoever titled that video probably did it before the story even came out. If someone was going to make these hoax videos, don't you think they'd put something like 'MH370' or 'Missing Malaysian Plane' in the title? It seems to me that whoever made the title did it without even know exactly what it was. It's not a home run piece of evidence obviously but it's something.

Second: Ashton Forbes tracked down both sources of the videos. One is from a military drone and one is from a satellite. He was able to track down the coordinates of the satellite and drone that took the videos and they match up perfectly with where they each were on the videos (you can track these things online, apparently). 

A very important point here that I haven't really seen online that much is the fact that the two videos match up perfectly with each other. The fact that there's two videos matching each other perfectly lowers the odds of them being fake by a shitload. Also, the fact that they would have to have been made inside of four days is suspect. 

Third: the guy who apparently leaked the satellite video, Lt. Commander Edward Lin, was accused of being a spy at first. He went to prison but the court details from his case are redacted. Forbes tried reaching out to him and his lawyer but he said the lawyer deactivated his phones once he got a hold of him, and no one can find 'Edward Lin' on any prison database. And if there was no video, then what crime did this guy commit? And where is he now? No one can find him.

Now when you get into the second video, you really start to pay attention. He goes frame by frame, super zoomed in on the plane and the orbs. 

There's one part of the video that keeps one of the orbs in perfect focus the whole time, super zoomed in and super slow. In the last moments, right before the plane vanishes, the orbs all sort of flatten out and orient themselves perfectly with the middle of the plane. And RIGHT before the plane goes, in the very last frame, the orbs descend on the plane. Then the plane gets blurry and in the infra-red video, the plane is getting smaller and cooler. Then when the 'portal' appears, on the infra-red video it's black, which would mean it's cold. According this Forbes guy, you would have to understand math better than most PHD's to fake the way the orbs moved and to know what that portal thing would look like. He says the the reason the plane looks smaller and cooler in the last frame is that we're seeing it begin to travel at light-speed. (By the way, quite the detail to add in to a fake video; that is, making the plane slightly colder on the very last frame). Another small tidbit: right before the very end of the video where the plane vanishes, the operator of the drone video zooms out. It's the only time he ever zooms out. Ashtons theory is that he knew it was coming and wanted to be sure he captured it perfectly in frame. He doesn't freak out when it disappears either. The camera moves a little bit side to side, almost like the operator is pretending to look for it.

Now look, I'm just describing what I saw in the video. Watch it for yourself to get all the information. There's a TON more. He super-imposes a picture of the plane onto the video and every single little detail is perfect. Like, down to the pixel. Even the way the flames would look in the air on an infra-red video (Ashton and others claim the plane was on fire before it disappeared). And the orbs are actually leaving a trail of their movement in front of themselves, somehow, which you can only see on the infra-red. Again, quite the detail for a hoax.

And the thing that gets me is that obviously this video is either fake or not, right? It's either a fictional video that someone made, or it's a video of something that really happened. And I think that either way, the implications are terrifying. If this is a fake, if someone really did just create both of these videos, synching them up perfectly with each other, then that means that we can no longer trust any video we see anymore. NOTHING can be believed. If this is a fake, it is utterly indistinguishable from a real video. That's almost as scary as if it's real. Don't forget, this is over 10 years old now. If two fakes that convincing can be made in under 4 days, 10 years ago, then no video anywhere can be trusted in 2025. And if it's a real video? Then, I mean, you don't need me to tell you the implications. I mean the plane fucking vanished into thin air! There were apparently 9 or 10 scientists on board who were working on something to do with super conductivity. Did we see AI or humans of the future saving themselves in the past? If that's true, then where did the plane go? What the FUCK was that portal thing? A creepy fact is that quite a few of the family members of the people on the plane said that when they tried calling them, the phone calls would actually connect but there would be silence on the other end. This apparently lasted for days.

Lastly; there have been more than a few comments from different people on different videos saying that fishermen and others reported seeing the plane land at Diego Air Base. Obviously this doesn't mean much on its own but it's interesting. I've seen more than a few comments like that.

One of the main detractors of this video, the 'proof' that it was debunked, was that someone claimed that the clouds in the video matched up perfectly with clouds from a video game. This little 'de-bunking' claim was pretty much the only reason this video and story vanished from the mainstream news quickly, but Ashton said he was able to trace the API data back and showed that the clouds in the video were added in after this plane video came out. Now, I have no idea how to prove that either way. But I will say something here that bears remembering.

Remember the now-famous 'tic-tac' video from a few years ago? 2017 actually. (Link is to the 60 minutes story). There were two videos captured by our military showing what looked like UAPs and one of the radarmen was able to lock onto one of them. The story eventually made it to the front page of the New York Times and the pilot of one of the planes testified in front of Congress. Here is the NYT article but its paywalled.  It was huge news at the time, the pilot testified at the same hearing as David Grousch who you probably remember hearing about. Anyway, the two videos they were talking about are 100% real. The government, Congress and US military confirmed it.

Now, when these videos were first leaked online, they were heavily and immediately 'debunked'. Again, they turned out to be 100% real and they were sitting online, out in open in forums and on 4chan for years. Something you have to know about the UFO community in general is that de-bunking is like the new bunking. People LOVE to de-bunk everything. Nothing is ever real in any UFO forum. So it's important to know that the general vibe with these videos is almost always that they're laughable, obvious fakes at first. So when you see a video like this and you see the first comment or the general consensus is that it's a fake, and an obvious one at that, just know that they said that about every single video and picture, including at least two that have been confirmed as real. And there's probably tens of thousands of very powerful, very rich men who have a LOT to lose if these videos and the technology do get confirmed publicly. And if you think the CIA or whoever else isn't on reddit and on 4chan and in youtube comments, you're woefully naive.

Another point about the video game clouds: if Ashton is right and the clouds were added in after the plane video came online, then that's really all you need to know. That's the smoking gun. The ONLY possible reason someone would have for doing that is to fake de-bunk the plane video. And what possible motive would one have for doing that?

If these two videos, the drone and satellite ones, are fakes, then why? Why would someone do that and not take credit for it? Like a lot of these situations; the orb videos, the crop circles, when you really break it down and think about it logically, it often requires a bigger leap of faith to believe that they're hoaxes (a little bit like atheism and The Creator Theory, actually). Like the group of 50 plus year old men who said they pole vaulted into the center of a crop circle and then back out of it in order to make it without leaving any footprints. Why would someone fake these two videos, matching them up perfectly with each other as well as matching up perfectly with the coordinates of where the satellite and drone actually were that day, and not take credit for it? Even if you could come up with a reason and a motive, it still leaves a gaping hole in the 'how' of it all. Don't forget, these videos are over 10 years old. I doubt anyone could make two fakes this good today, in 2025, with the use of AI and in under 4 days. But in 2014? No fucking chance.

Again, if these videos are fake, then any video anywhere can be a fake. You have industry experts breaking them both down, frame by frame, and concluding that they cannot possibly be fake, and the youtube guy that first uploaded them for sure did not create them.

What if they are real videos? Let's run with that for a minute. At first it looks like aliens but Ashton doesn't think so. He thinks this was a military operation. For one, it was suspect that both a drone and satellite were right there, perfectly able to capture it. He said that drone is a slow recon drone, so there's no way it caught up to the plane. It had to have been in place beforehand. Also, it would have been odd to have a drone as close as it was to the plane by chance. His theory is that it was the US military using alien tech to either save this plane or disappear it, and it had something to do with sending a message to China and with the 10 super conductor scientists on board. No one can possibly know the reason obviously, but the bottom line, in my opinion, is that I believe there is a greater than 50% chance these two videos are real. That means that at the very least, someone on the planet had access to off-world tech in 2014. Either that or it really was aliens. Either way, we're talking portals, time travel, travel at the speed of light, orbs, black holes... I mean, again, assuming these videos are real, this is earth shattering. 

I've been following this Ashton Forbes guy since seeing this video and he seems like the real deal. He's a real scientist who interviews all kinds of real deal scientists and physicists. It's hard to really follow what he's talking about a lot of the time, but there's one thing about him I instantly understood and it made me believe he's the real deal: he gets in these back-and-forth dick measuring contests with other scientists/physicists. A thing I learned from high level sports betting and learning about science and scientists later on is that high level fields seem to be nearly exclusively moved forward by the top guys absolutely hating each other. Even going back to the 1600's with scientists sending nasty letters back and forth, trying to disprove each other and getting into these life long vendettas. The top guys in the top fields are all like this, and Ashton Forbes is one of these guys. I saw it constantly when I was full-time sports betting. The top guys on the forums would go at each others throats, spilling their closely guarded secrets in order to make a point to a stranger. That's how I learned half the shit I know about sports betting. I know this is a long way to go to make this point but I do think it's worth making. The fake guys always pussyfoot around, trying to fit in with everyone. If not they get exposed quickly. The real deal guys are constantly in the trenches fighting with each other.

So that's about it. The main thing I wanted to do here is just share this video. I think this is something people will look back on very differently in the future. Will we ever know the truth? Probably not. But I do honestly believe that these videos are real and we saw evidence of off world technology and possibly of either time travel and/or travel at the speed of light. Obviously it's fucking insane if true.

I have more to say about betting this week and a lot more on crypto, but I'll save that for the next post. I'll try to get it up before Sunday but we'll see.

Thanks for reading, talk soon!

NFL Week 11 Betting Recap, Looking Ahead, Bitcoin And More

 I have my missing plane/alien tech/orb post in the works, but I had to make a betting recap post today. I had my single best week of not only the year, but since early 2021. I absolutely walked on water yesterday so let's do a recap as well as a look ahead as I see a couple intriguing Week 12 spots already. A couple more random things I want to touch on as well.

Per my last post, I mentioned that this year has been a somewhat disappointing one for me betting wise. Going into last week, I was up almost exactly one unit for the NFL season. That is dreadful. Not only that, but it felt like I've been generating all kinds of really good spots all season yet running quite bad, especially live betting. I didn't really get too discouraged though and just kept hammering away, trusting the process. Well last week I finally managed to cash in on a lot of the +EV/Sklansky bucks I've been stacking. It was a nearly divine week so let us dive in!

My main Wong bets were: GB -1 and -1.5. BAL -2.5, DET +7.5, 8.5 and 9.5. A little bit of ARZ +8.5 and WASH +8.5.

I hit PHI +7.5 on the MNF game as well as the under on the PATS Thursday night game, but nothing big. The first big position of the week was the early Sunday game of WASH/MIA in Spain. (How great are these 9:30 AM Sunday games, by the way? Great to have on in the background as you make a big Sunday breakfast. I imagine someday in the future there being an NFL game on every single time slot, every single day). The line was hovering between WASH +2.5 and +3, so I don't usually Wong these teams. However, earlier in the week, I got a nice +25% Draft Kings promo with a $200 max bet for a 4 team NFL parlay. The way I try to exploit promo's like this is to make 4 bets on teams all playing at different times. That way I can arb/middle each one and make money no matter what happens. I line shop and find 4 decent bets on their own, de-vig each line (using Pinnacle as the true line) and put the parlay into a parlay calculator. With the 25% odds boost, I was making a +EV parlay on its own. My first leg was the under in the PATS game which won. My second leg was MIA -2.5. Now I start hunting for +EV spots on WASH. I was able to get +130 on the money line which was off market at the time (and through the close) as well as +3 -120. Both were good bets. On the morning of, lots of money came in on WASH so the line drifted to +2.5, +2. Now it was an official Wong. With my big parlay now as the 'hedge', I fired WASH +8.5 in a bunch of teasers and whatya know, it landed perfectly with MIA winning by 3. My parlay was still alive, my WASH teasers were still alive and I pushed on WASH +3. A very good start.

For the 1:00 slate, my parlay had LAC ML as the next leg. Now with 2 of the 4 legs won already, I could hedge/middle even more. I found a breakeven +3 on JAX and unloaded on it pretty heavy. JAX blew them out so the parlay died but I was able to extract a good amount of value from it. Playing/hedging parlays like this really isn't the by-the-book way to do it, but if you can find at least break even hedges, it's completely fine. Super long term, it's probably better to just ride naked on the parlay. But if you can find at least breakeven hedges and over-bet the original parlay to maximize the odds boost, planning on hedging, it's a good move. Always good to remember: you can run worse for longer than you think.

My biggest play of the one o clockers though was on the GB/NYG game. DK put up a juicy +320 for a while yesterday on the NYG money line, so I did a classic little GB teaser hedged with NYG ML. I got GB at -1.5 and then -.5, so the only nightmare scenario was a tie. GB winning by exactly 1 would have stung pretty bad too, but I was fine with the risk. With both plays being +EV, I basically fired as much as I possibly could. I sniped a nice little NYG +7.5 -105 at one point too, only for two units though. I basically made it so I was 'big free-rolling' on GB money line with a small little NYG +7.5 hedge. As you know, GB won by 7 so it landed perfectly.

I got in bad early last week on a couple HOU -1.5 Wongs that I hedged with TEN +7.5. HOU won by 3 so again, perfect.

On to the 4:00 slate. I had ARZ +8.5 which was literally over after the first 4 possessions of the game. Luckily it was small exposure, but unluckily, it was the only 4:00 game I didn't hedge. I simply ran out of time after the GB game took so long and looked like it could go either way all the way to the end. I planned on hedging on SF betting live, but the line literally went from -3 to -7.5 after the very first possession. So I had to bet SF -7.5 -110 and just lock in a small loss. The only real blunder of the day.

I had LAR +3.5 in a couple of my screwball-through-the-zero Wongs that I didn't love but needed the 6.5 point leg. I hedged that with SEA ML and -2.5 plus odds which was a little bit of a bummer. If I hadn't got so cute and played SEA +3 or even +2.5, I would have binked both sides. Certainly not complaining though. 

I had DEN +10.5 (same logic as the LAR +3.5 bet. I was piling in on GB -.5 as a 6.5 point teaser for which I needed 4:00 or later legs to pair with. Teasing a team from +4 to +10.5 is generally pretty bad, but not as bad as I thought when I compared it to Pinnacles alt-line of DEN +10.5. And does anyone remember the infamous 'Bill The Cop' road dogs teaser strategy? Only true OG's will. Real quick, Bill The Cop was a big poster on the SBR forums back in the day, and he apparently found that teasing road dogs from exactly +4.5 to +10.5 was profitable for a good 5 years or so. For whatever reason, that caused a SHIT SHOW on the forums. (It really is hard to explain early 2000s forum culture these days). The whole thing even made it into Justin7's 'Conquering Risk' book. Long story short, it was more of a function of road dogs over performing for a few years until the market caught up, and less of a function of the teasers themselves being any good. But if you ever need a 6 or 6.5 point 'filler' leg for a teaser, you can do a lot worse than going from 4.5 to 10.5. I wouldn't consider it a +EV leg on its own though). Anyway, DEN won straight up so it was a good result. If KC had won by between 7-10, it would have been perfect though.

Then we come to the BAL/CLE game. BAL -1.5 and -2.5 was my second biggest Wong exposure of the day. I hedged with mostly CLE +3.5, but also some ML and +7.5. BAL won by 7 so it was nearly perfect. I attacked this game pretty heavily in live betting which I'll get to soon.

Finally, we get to the Sunday Night game. DET was a light +2.5 all week, so while it wasn't a great leg on its own, I used it as the last leg in most of my teasers. And as my teasers were all winning, it meant I had a really big position of DET +7.5, 8.5 and even 9.5 going into the game. I was getting ready to hedge out of it at mostly PHI -7.5 for +230 when I stopped and thought about it some more. Why add in this last leg at all if I'm just going to completely hedge out of it? And getting only +230 on PHI -7.5 meant I would be essentially paying money to do so (as stated here before, you need about +260 or better to hedge out of a 3 teamer profitably). So I fired only a couple units on PHI -7.5 and then hedged with PHI -3.5, a little bit of money line and -2.5, and then the bulk of it at -5 at Pinnacles price. And BINK! PHI wins by 7, nearly perfect. Only thing that would have been slightly better was a PHI win by 8 but I'm not THAT greedy.

So the Wongs were good to me last week. Very good. But as good as they were, live betting was even better. I CRUSHED live betting last week. I got myself almost into the green for the entire year in basically one day. As I said last week, I couldn't believe how all over the place the live lines were between my PPH and DK. Well this week was no different. The only difference was that I didn't treat DK as an efficient market and just did nearly 100% middles/scalps. And boy did it work. I was getting fat 2 and 3 point middles on totals. On more than one occasion, I got a scalp and a middle on the same bet! (Over 40.5 +130, under 41.5 -115 for example). I managed to middle the 7 on the BAL/CLE game like 4 times, all mostly at the same time. And this was with just two books and a toddler hanging on me for some of it. Like I said last post, live betting still seems very ripe. I have half a mind to open up 2 or 3 more legal accounts and just go bonkers betting live the rest of the season. I find it surprising and actually somewhat encouraging that books even offer live betting the way they do. DK essentially puts up a line and leaves it there for the entire game. When there's a full slate of games, there is no way to stay on top of everything the way they really need to. I know it's obviously a model/algorithm and there isn't some guy frantically changing the lines. But you gotta know about when guys get injured and move in and out of the game, the changing motivations, the coaches tendencies, the game state, etc. The book has to be on top of every single line for every single game, all day and for the whole day. You just sit back and pick em off, one by one. It almost doesn't seem fair!

All in all, a tremendous week. However, I don't want to get too ahead of myself here. I'm still slightly down for the year live betting and I'm down a good chunk lifetime (a lot of live bets I made in the past were hedges). But I'm not really reacting to the result, more-so how wide the discrepancies were between my PPH and DK. And I lost live betting on my PPH. That's how much I crushed DK in it. For the first time since getting this account, I'm actually starting to get nervous about getting the boot. I usually get some kind of useable promo or odds boost every day, but nothing today. If/when I do get kicked out, I'll just start using FanDuel or something else similar. I really should have a Fanduel account already, but I just don't have the time on Sundays anymore to really lock in all day like I used to. 

Anyway, like I said, I definitely don't want to get too over my ski's here after just one good week. Not too high, not too low. Even though it put me back on track to have a good/average year, this result would have been a blip when I was full-time. I haven't had a week like this in years though and it felt great today doing my weekly numbers. I knew I was due! Hopefully we can keep this going and ride some momentum into the second half of the year.

Speaking of looking ahead, I see a good 'near free money' opportunity already next week. The Patriots are heavy -7 favorites at CIN and you can get CIN money line at +280 pretty easily right now. So I like teasing PATS down to -1 and maybe even -.5 if your teaser odds are good for a big chunk and hedging it with CIN ML at +280 or better. Right now I have a 3 teamer with PATS -1.5 hedged with CIN money line. The other two legs are JAX +3.5 (through the zero, not great but not terrible) and SF -.5. (As I'm typing this, the PATS are getting bet up to -7 -120 and -7.5 -110 in some places). I like the idea of getting in early on the Patriots at -1/-.5 and hedging out a little bit on CIN money line. Then keep an eye on the line all week and take more nibbles of CIN money line as the line gets better. I'm already seeing some +290 in just the time it took me to write this post. 

ATL/NO looks like a possible 'get both sides of a +7.5 teaser' spot. The line has already bounced around through the zero a little bit, so I'll look for a +1.5 on either side and hit it. 

We have some correlated parlay potential with the JETS and SEA games. I'll probably have a small full game or first half parlay on both games in some fashion. If you can tie in an odds boost that would be great.

And finally, GB, PATS and SF look like possible teaser/ML hedge plays. We'll have to see how the lines move.

Changing gears here, crypto is taking a shit as we speak. Looks like BTC is about to go sub $90k and alts are getting hit even harder. With a weekly close below the 50 day moving average ($100kish), it's looking more and more like $125k was the top and this cycle is over. If true, this has a LOT of interesting implications. The biggest one being the complete lack of an alt-coin season. I made the point a while back that it really doesn't make much sense at all to accumulate a stack of any kind of alt-coin, certainly not one without a capped supply (looking at you ETH). If you do need an alt coin to do things on the blockchain, it seems to me that it would make much more sense to hold BTC as your wealth preservation stack and then use it to buy alts when/if the need arises. Are we seeing the market digest this notion in real time? It's much too early to say for sure either way, but it is looking more and more likely. If I was sitting on a big bag of ETH or Matic or Solana or whatever else right now, I'd be pretty nervous. I'm about 60% BTC, 40% alts currently and I want to get that closer to 80/20 eventually. It looks like I might have to wait a whole cycle for that though. Even if this cycle top is in, and even if alts are dying, I still think we'll get at least one more alt season eventually. They're just too sexy-seeming for n00bs to have the potential drained out of them completely in 2025. Maybe alts will get on some sort of 8 year cycle? Like they miss every other cycle? Who knows. All I know is I'm still stacking BTC and probably will forever. One positive aspect of no alt-season/blow off top is that we probably won't get such a brutal low. I have $50-$70K in mind as the bear market low, or about a 50% drawdown. Bear cycles usually get to about 80% down from the high, which would put the low at about $25k. But I think as the asset matures and the market cap grows, the swings are going to get less and less volatile both ways. It just makes logical sense that a $2 trillion asset would be less swingy than one with an $800 million marketcap, like last cycle.

One good lesson to take away from the last month or so has been that patience almost always gets rewarded. Every BTC buy I've made since April of this year is now underwater. My overall BTC price is $37kish so I'm still sitting very pretty. But nearly every single 'chasing it' / FOMO buy I've ever made has been regrettable, only because I could have gotten a much better price later on. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing. I will for sure be looking to increase my stack with this upcoming bear market, whether it's now or later down the line. That's the time to buy, not when it's above its all time high. And if you're out there and feel like you missed the boat on Bitcoin, get yourself ready. Start buying soon, go slow, never panic sell, and if you're going to dabble in alts keep it to 50% of your total MAX. NoT FiNaCiAl AdViCe though!

Another very important lesson that I learned from last bear cycle was that no one called the bottom. I want to repeat that because I think it's so important. NO ONE, at least no one that I'm aware of anyway, called $15k as last cycles bottom. Everyone thought it was going lower, and I do mean everyone. Really good thing to keep in mind in the coming months/years.

This is getting long so I'm going to wrap it up soon. I have a lot more to say about crypto and the possible end of the four year cycle though. The next couple weeks/months into the new year are going to be huge, especially for the future implications. I want to do another Stonks update as well. My ROI in Stocks is actually higher than it is for crypto for the first time ever, which is interesting.

Lastly, I want to share a cool link/video I saw recently. Here you go. It's a poker hand from a massive $500k/$1k no-limit game (plus a $2k big blind ante because why not? Talk about nose bleed stakes). The hand itself is incredible to watch if you like poker like me. It's a heads up pot between Nik Airball and Alan Keating. Keating has quietly become one of, if not THE best all around live poker players in the world right now. He so looks and acts the part, too. Has that big 'I'm good with math' forehead. Dresses really nice, carries himself well, plays like a super controlled lunatic, always gives good interviews. If it weren't for the fact that he's such a winner, he seems like he would be a joy to play with. Just seems like a really solid dude all around. Then you have Nik Airball, who is almost like the bizarro Keating. Loud, obnoxious, spewy, looks and acts like a slob. I'd bet money that he often smells bad. He loves to slow roll too which is a new thing in the games that I can't stand.

Anyway, Airball opens pre with 65 of diamonds and only Alan calls in the big blind with 84 off suit. Alan making this call (with the straddler behind him because of course there's a straddle. $3500 in dead money in the pot before anyone gets dealt a card just isn't enough) out of position with 84 off is one of those things where only when you really know the rules, can you break them. And this is just straight up disrespect for Airball but it'll make more sense in a minute.

So the flop comes 843, two diamonds. Alan flops top two pair, Airball flops an open ended straight flush draw. Very important context here: they are both SUPER deep. Effective stack is $1.1 million (of real money), or over 1,000 big blinds. Alan check raises pretty big, Airball calls, and the turn is one of the worst cards in the deck for Alan: an off suit 3. It pairs the board so now Alan loses to any pocket pair of 99 or above in Airballs hand. Alan bets near pot and now Airball raises 3x. Most everyone would fold here but Alan calls with the smoothness of Philly cream cheese. Pot is now $550k and the river is an Ace of Spades. So Alan has a super weak two pair and Airball misses entirely. Alan checks and Airball bets near full pot of $525k. The pot is $1.07 M now. Alan thinks and thinks and eventually finds the call! $1.6 million dollar pot, the biggest pot in the history of televised poker. 

It's an awesome hand to watch on its own, but the reason I wanted to post it was because of the interview he gave after. Besides the interviewer being terrible (can ANY interviewer just ask one question and then shut the fuck up?!) I thought it was very revealing. He makes the somewhat obvious point about how Airballs line made no sense unless he had exactly A3 of clubs. But then he says that Airball never bluffs with big amounts, and recalls how he (Alan) said that at the table earlier multiple times. "I said that a couple times in an hour, so I think I planted the seed in his head where it became somewhat of a challenge." Alan essentially challenged Airball to run a huge bluff against him, but did it in such a subtle manner that Airball didn't think Alan was aware of it. He basically stayed exactly one level above Airball, which is exactly where you want to be all the time. (If you're two levels above, you're a level under. This is the game of 'he knows that I know that he knows that I know, etc.) It's a super interesting look into the leveling wars that take place at games like this and I just found the whole thing to be really cool. Maybe you will too!

That's that for today. Thanks for reading, leave a comment why don't ya, and check back soon! We're talking crypto, aliens, anti-gravity and teleportation! 

BTC price: $92k

BTC marketcap: $1.83T

Overall crypto marketcap: $3.11T

BTC dominance (including stables): 58.8%

ETH dominance: 11.6%

Total cryptos on coin marketcap: 27.2 M

Coin marketcap fear/greed: 17/100

NFL Week 10 Betting Recap, NFL Look Ahead, Crypto/Stocks, Flight MH370 And More

 Lot to get to today. I have a good chunk of time to myself here and I have about 3 different posts swirling in my brain. I had a fairly interesting week betting mostly NFL so I thought we would do a quick little recap as well as a look ahead at week 11. Bitcoin dumping, looking like it's losing the fight for $100k, alt-season nowhere to be found, and the real reason I wanted to make this post. I saw recently a super interesting video that was somehow like a year old and only had a couple hundred views. It was dealing with flight MH370, that plane that vanished into thin air years ago. Bear with me if you think the whole thing was nonsense. I did too at first.

So first off, week 10 was a good week. Up about 8 units altogether. Crushed wongs, lost on NFL straights/hedging the wongs, lost a little live betting and won a little on random things, mostly DK promos. (I know I say this constantly but I really like Draft Kings and I'm always surprised at how much they give away. They must be making it back and then some though, obviously). My favorite play of the day was on the CLE/NYJ game. I had CLE +7.5 as the last leg of a 3 team teaser from the week before. It was a beefy one too, something like 5 units to win 8.5. It was one I hedged/middled the whole way through. Well in between me making that bet and the game starting, the Jets made some trades and the line went from Jets -2 to Jets +2. If you're a regular reader here, you know what that means. One of my all time favorite spots in betting: getting both teams in a Wong teaser. I needed to bet on the Jets anyway to hedge my Cle +7.5 position, but now I could really unload. Take the belt off, as they say. I managed the get the zenith of the Jets number too, getting them at +8.5 AND +125 on the money line where they closed at +110ish. The line closed at +1ish. (By the way, little digression coming here, but I have recently learned something about closing lines that I found interesting. I was watching a recent Circles Off video, one where it was just Rob talking. [If you don't know what the fuck I'm talking about, just bear with me here for a minute.] That channel is goofy sometimes but Rob is legit. Anyway, he mentioned sort of quickly that sometimes sharp groups will try to move a line right before game-time so that the sports books/markets live betting models will be anchored to an incorrect closing line. I made a comment asking about it and he said he's heard of it but can't discuss it. You could find the video and comment on youtube if you wanted. If that's true, that's pretty interesting. And I have to say, being someone who watches and has watched these lines every single Sunday for decades, almost always right up until close, I have seen quite a few big, odd looking moves right at the last minute, pretty often. Enough that I for sure noticed it before I heard Rob say that. I never made the connection to live betting, but it does make sense. That would throw off the 'closing line' for historical purposes too. That's a really big deal if true. You would need a lot of money to move the whole NFL market right before kickoff, but you can get quite a lot down live betting these days, and for hours. And the line moves during the game are kind of insane. You can tell it's a fairly new market/concept still. Live betting is for sure being eaten up by some groups out there right now. So, to bring this home, when I say a line closed at something, I might not be talking about what it actually literally went off the board at. More so what it was for the hour before game time. And if you're into betting like I am, this is all something to consider when thinking about 'the closing line' in general.)

What a digression, huh. Anyway, Jets vs Cle. So I have Cle +7.5 for a bunch, now I get to bomb away on NYJ +8.5 and +7.5 for a bunch, as well as a little money line. With a total in the 30's and two bad offenses, I absolutely loved this position. And whatya know, they both hit. Jets win by 7, absolutely perfect. 

Anyway, pretty much all of the Wongs won for the day. I even had a little IND -.5/ATL ML teaser/ML hedge that went my way, although not before the slight heart attack with it going OT. I had IND teased down to -.5 and hedged it out with ATL +270 money line (you can do that if you can get the opponent money line at +260 or better, assuming you're betting a 3 team teasers at +170 odds. A 3 teamer at +170 is like having 3 separate bets at -255. 3 teamers at +170 is generally the best teaser you can realistically find these days). The only way you can possibly lose money on a play like this is if the game ends in a tie. Since 2017, 8 games have ended in a tie in something like 4,900 games, or about 0.15% chance. Even less with a spread over 6, I'm sure. I'm not going to keep going with the math, but I know a +270/-255 scalp is still good with a .15% chance of losing both. And it's actually more like .09% since if the team with the money line bet wins, you'll typically get that bet refunded at least. So, bottom line, these plays are +EV, but tiny. You might lose one of them in your life (and having one go to OT like I did last week, especially in a stand alone game, is quite the experience). Really kind of up to you if you think they're worth it. I always look for any kind of teaser I can do that isn't strictly a Wong.

 The only minor downer was losing PIT +8.5 in the Sunday night game, but that wasn't a great leg so I didn't have much exposure at all, and actually had LAC +3.5 in a couple of my small screwball/cross the zero Wongs that hit.

One very satisfying thing happened while live betting, too. During the afternoon slate, I had my PPH account and DK up at the same time, looking for middles/scalps live betting. Really just looking at the market and getting a feel. I don't usually have the time to really dig into live betting on Sundays, but I did last week. First thing I see is lots of discrepancies. A surprising amount. I start pulling off a couple small arbs/middles, and I see a really juicy number on the NYG money line. They were up late in the game and for some reason, the money line on them on my PPH account got stuck at -270. I think it was when they went up by 10. I don't even know, all I know is that the line on DK was like -400 and climbing. So I hit -270 for 2 units. Then it was -500/ +390 on DK. My PPH still at -270! I hit it again for 2 units and buy some back on CHI on DK at +390. I'm about to max out -270 and then I stop. I realize this is drifting into 'bad line' territory. The line on DK keeps climbing and the -270 is still up, now for way too long. This is bad. They're going to delete the fucking bet and then I'm going to lose my hedges on DK. And sure enough, the whole line comes down, and then I see them deleted in my history. I'm apoplectic. This is not the first time something like that has happened at this book, either. (If you're a true regular reader, this is the book that deleted my stock bets AND my Kamala Vice President bets). I'm pissed at myself for even doing this, middling live bets with a PPH that can and will 'delete' bets at will. I really was fuming. And then, well, you know the rest. CHI came back and wins outright! So I binked a nice 2 units at risk at CHI +390 ML that I would have otherwise never bet. THAT is running good. (Though I will say that I still, somehow, lost a tiny bit overall live betting, which is embarrassing. I couldn't believe how many scalps and middles I was seeing though. I was mostly treating DK as the 'true line' which was dumb though in hindsight. If I do that again it will all just be middles/scalps and for small amounts spread out. Really no reason to ride naked at all in a market like that.)

Looking forward, unfortunately, I don't see much at all in Week 11. Everything I jumped on small early has moved against me. I have GB -1.5, ARZ +8.5, DET +7.5 and BAL -2.5, all of which you can do better on right now. DK is fairly off market with NYG ML so I'll probably do a little GB -1.5, NYG ML play and just hope GB doesn't win by exactly 1. Not for big amounts though. A team winning by 1 is a lot different than the game ending in a tie. 

Here at the rough mid point of the NFL season (when you include playoffs), I have to say it has been a somewhat disappointing year betting. I'm up an ok amount overall, but nothing great and pretty well off my yearly average, even for the past few years of lower volumes. I'm way up in teasers but down everywhere else except for props. But I'm up tiny on props, only really playing them with an odds boost or something. I made a good 5 units on NHL blocks but gave more than half of that away on NHL Shots, somehow. I'm up more than 4x on teasers than what I'm down on NFL straights, so I really don't think I'm over hedging. I'm down a good amount on 'non NFL straight bets' though, and down a little bit live betting. Something to think about going forward. I bet you I end up in the green live betting at the end of the year though. Little bet with myself. Down about 11 units so far.

On the bitcoin front, it looks like we might be losing the battle for $100k. Not for sure yet, but it's looking more and more like $125k was this cycles top. To be honest, I still don't think so. I still think there's another leg up this cycle and I do have a bunch of underwater futures backing that opinion up, but I haven't been adding on or anything. It wouldn't shock me if we go sideways/slightly down for the next year or so. If we don't get the blow off top, we probably won't get the in-the-coffin low though, either. I still think it's hilarious that under $100k is bear market territory. I remember hearing about when bitcoin crossed $10k. Really wasn't that long ago. Just going to keep accumulating mostly Bitcoin and look to trade in a good chunk of my ETH when given the chance. Not much change in strategy.

You know something, I'm going to make the next part a new post. I'll have more on crypto but really it's going to be about this plane and the video I saw. If you like this blog, you'll like this post. If you're reading this today, Nov 14th, be on the lookout for a new post soon. I'm going to leave this post like this, too. I like keeping a sort of stream of conscious feel to this blog. I don't even know why. Everything is so fake and AI generated and soft and perfectly curated these days, maybe I like having this weird little blog where I can puke up my thoughts on anything. And people read it! Even people from like, Vietnam and Brazil and Norway. Maybe they're just VPN's but hello out there if not and thank you for reading! Check back soon!

NFL Week 6 AND 7 Betting Recap, A Look Ahead, And An Honest To God Real Life FLASHCRASH

I wrote a Week 6 recap last week but never published it. I planned on adding more to it but just never did. And I'm sitting here trying to write my Week 7 recap but my heart just isn't in it. I think I'm only going to do these recaps if it was a particularly interesting betting week. I'll do a quick Week 7 recap here but I think this will be my last one unless, like I said, it's an interesting week.

I'll include the Week 6 recap at the bottom as well since I wrote it anyway.

So. Week 7. Finally a good week. I actually lost on Wongs again but more than made up for it elsewhere.

My biggest Wong/play of the day was with the Jets vs CAR game. As I said in the my Week 6 recap below, this felt like an absolutely perfect Wong-middle play. Two shitty teams, low total, a spread of PK through +2 Jets depending on where/when you bet. I got in early on the Jets at +7.5 and hedged big on CAR ML -113 and -2.5 +125ish. The game went just as expected, super low scoring, super low variance and it ended up perfectly with CAR winning by 7. I even managed to middle the 7 during live betting. It feels great to have a game go exactly the way you predict and bet it that it would. It's rare but when it happens it's great.

I teased MIN up to 7.5 and hit the PHI ML hedge/middle.

IND won outright.

DEN won by exactly 1 which could have been a disaster if I went with the DEN -1.5, NYG hedge that I sometimes do.

GB won but didn't cover which was perfect.

The only real bummer was the SNF game. I had the stand alone ATL +8.5 leg in almost every teaser I made. I hedged out of most of it but if that game had stayed under 8, we'd be eating good this week.

Anyway, it was a good week. Up about 9 units to bring me to basically exactly break even for the NFL season so far. It feels like I'm on the upswing though.

Looking ahead, there are quite a few juicy looking possible Wongs coming up. ATL looks good, CAR maybe, PHI looks decent. Perhaps a PATS/CLE Wong/ML hedge. But the best one on the board right now is SF +2 against HOU. Super low total, neither offense is explosive at all. I put SF +7.5 as the 3rd leg of a couple teasers from last week that are still pending and I will be slowly adding more and more all week. My 3 best looking Wongs as of today, in order are: SF, ATL, and PHI. None of them really need to be pounced on quite yet though. If I start seeing some +1.5s on SF I will and if the other two drift into -8 I will too. But I'll be mostly waiting and watching these over the next few days.

Switching topics to crypto, we had ourselves a good ol' fashioned FLASH CRASH last week where everything except The King dumped like 50% or more. It was really bizarre. I managed to scoop up like 5 LINKS for $10 per LINK. I also managed to sell exactly one LTC for $125 and bought it back for $83 in the same day which is always nice. I had 8 orders rejected during the crash. I'm a bit light on dry powder for the moment which sucked. I was trying to scoop up as much cheap LINK (LINK crashed the hardest that I saw) and LTC as possible but between getting all my orders rejected and not having a ton of cash on hand, it was a bit of a missed opportunity. Good lesson though. These markets are still fairly new and weird shit happens from time to time. Got to be able to capitalize.

I'm steadfast in my BTC prediction that I've had for the past 6 months or so now. I still think we have one more big run up to go. I think $150k is going to be the top and I think we see it before the end of the year. I think ETH is going above $5k, too. My futures positions are mostly all underwater now which sucks. I was definitely too cocky with these too early. This is the only way I really learn stuff though. I think with futures, it's good to have small positions and to be ready to pounce when there's a big change. I still think they're going to make money when all is said and done, but I for sure could have gotten better prices on most of them. Futures trading feels like the next big thing though and something I will be keeping an eye on at the very least.

I'll post my Week 6 recap below for anyone interested but that's about it for me today. I have a couple ideas for a new post up soon, something longer form. There's a company that has been quietly releasing something like 'earnings reports' for BTC every quarter that I think is interesting. I've been reading some new books I'd like to discuss, lots of alien news and some political topics I've been following. So be on the lookout, don't forget to follow me on X @poogsBLOG for updates and check back soon. Bye for now!

*WEEK 6 BETTING RECAP*

Week 6 is in the books and we are officially a third of the way through the season. Feels like preseason was just last week but here we are. It was another lackluster week for me and Wong teasers. Let us take a quick look back and then a look ahead.

The first game of the week was the Thursday night game with PHI at NYG. PHI was mostly -7, steaming to -7.5 closer to game time so it wasn't a slam dunk leg. I did go kind of big on it tough looking back, but that was because I was able to get a good price on NYG ML. So I went for the free money/heart attack arb (if PHI won by exactly 1 I'd have been shut out completely). I left some risk on PHI so it was a small loser. Never a good sign when the first stand alone Wong game of the week loses. It's a bad omen.

I got a great number on the Jets (+7.5 -120 which was a two cent-arb with Pinny at the time) which won, however I gave back a chunk of profits live betting DEN for some reason.

For the 1:00 o'clock slate, I got in early on IND at -5.5 which closed at -8.5 yet lost. I had JAX +7.5 in a bunch of teasers and they got within 8 and went for two for some reason. Stuff like this always terrifies me with regards to Wongs. Something to keep in mind going forward with JAX and other teams that do shit like that.

I did a 'through the zero' teaser with PATS and TB, making them both go from -3 to +3.5 which won. I got great numbers on CAR and CIN which won. The Sunday Night game was a good leg for DET up to +8.5 which did not cover. All in all, I was up slightly minus live betting. Ended the week down about 1.5 units. Pretty mediocre week, all around. I got crushed on Wongs but mostly evened things out with straights. I don't have any official stats but it feels like Wongs have been getting mostly crushed so far this year. I know I'm down on teasers. I still very much think they're profitable (and maybe even due?) but there have been quite a few changes in the league over the past couple years, rule-wise and just the way teams play. Going for two more often is a Wong killer so definitely something to at least keep an eye on. 

Looking ahead, there are a couple Wongs I'm jumping on early. The biggest one is the Jets *low, daunting horror movie music start playing in the background* which is +1 -105 at Pinnacle but +1.5/+2 at most books. Fairly low total too of 41.5. They're at home against CAR, so that's two teams that will be thrilled to just get a win. Being able to get CAR at -113 on the ML or plus odds of -2.5 for the hedge/middle is great. I think I'll go for a really big middle on this one. So the Jets are a great leg to start building off of, slow at first and see how the week develops. 

The only other possibilities in the 1:00 slate are the PATS at a heavy -7 and MIN at a light +1. I think the PATS are generally undervalued in the market overall. They were a DISASTER last year but have gone through a complete culture turn around with Vrabel and McDaniels and Maye taking a huge step forward. I think the market is slightly undervaluing how much of a disaster last year was with Jerod Mayo (the stories that have trickled out since he got fired have been humiliating for him. Notice you haven't heard a single WORD about Mayo since he got fired? Ain't no one looking to hire him. He was so unbelievably out of his depth as a head coach) and also how much of a boost Vrabel and McDaniels are. Anyway, that's a long way of saying that I think PATS at -7 -115 is a decent teaser leg, even though it isn't an official Wong yet.

And MIN +1 is a standard 'look for a +1.5 and tease it up to +7.5.' My book is a flat +1 so I'll be looking at that all week. Catching a foundering PHI team on the road, too. 

The remaining possibilities are IND +1.5, DAL +1.5 and the big 'Sunday Night last leg of every single teaser of ATL +2.5.' The other possibility is maybe GB -6.5 teased down to -.5 if you can get a good number on ARZ ML (+280ish or better depending on your teaser odds) or maybe find a rouge +7 if you're lucky. 

NFL Week 5 Betting Recap, Crypto, Plus More

 I skipped the Week 4 recap because it was rather uneventful and I'm not sure how captivating these posts are exactly. I had one of those strange weeks where it felt like I did good but when all the dust settled, I was down about a unit. That's a unique thing about being a semi-pro bettor; I usually have no idea how I'm doing until I do my figures for the week. Especially when I was full time, I would have something like a dozen accounts, each one with a different percentage and most of them being shared. You add in props and the phone only guys, and I typically would have no idea if I was up or down for the week or what I needed to happen in any given game. It would be a running joke between me and a couple of my degen friends who were always sweating some awful parlay. 

'How are you doing today/this week? What do you need?' 

'I don't know.'

Anyway, Week 5 was a damn near catastrophe. Except for one, every single Wongable game lost. Just a bloodbath for teasers. 

Before I dive in though I want to make one thing clear. I know I've made a few 'culture war/politics' posts on here lately. And while I absolutely stand by every thing I've said and make no apologies, I don't want any regular readers here to feel ostracized or feel like this blog isn't for them anymore. The political stuff is few and far between. So even if you're a true shit-lib marxist, you are more than welcome to be here and enjoy my inane ramblings. Not that anyone needed my permission or anything obviously, but I just wanted to put that out there.

On to the Week 5 massacre.

First Wongable game was the Thursday night game with the LAR closing at -8 against SF. I had LAR teased down to -2 with a SF +3.5 and +8 hedge/middle. LAR ended up losing in OT which was a heart breaker but luckily I didn't have much on this game at all. This game bothered me for a different reason though: Mac Jones. I have been quietly waiting for this spot for years, only to pass on it when given the chance. See, I have always felt like Mac Jones was a decent QB. He had an incredible rookie year (something everyone forgets) under Bill Belichick and it looked like the Patriots weren't going to miss a beat after Brady. Then Belichick went literally insane and started banging girls FIFTY years younger than him and coaching like he was actually trying to lose. He fucked Mac Jones up about as badly as possible. He made a defensive line coach and a special teams assistant Jones' offensive coordinators and tanked The Patriots, Mac Jones, and even himself. Jones had a terrible last couple years here in New England, then played one game as Trevor Lawrences back up and threw one of the ugliest pick sixes I can ever imagine. It was all over the highlights that week and ever since that throw, people have written Jones off. But I always felt like he got a raw deal, especially here in New England. How many second and third year guys would excel in a system where the head coach is arguably trying to lose, and also not talking to you because you dared to ask your college QB coach for help dealing with Matt fucking Patricia calling your games? So I always sort of kept it in the back of my head that if Mac got another crack at starting a game, the market would probably under value him. Well, he played his ass off against the Rams but I just couldn't pull the trigger on him. Sad! It'll be interesting to see what happens with him this year and next year though. I think he's clearly better than at least a handful of starting QB's in the league today.

Anyway, the possible Wong's for the 1:00 slate were: NYJ, BAL, NYG, and CAR. The Jets were playing DAL and a ton of late money came in on the Jets to move them from +1.5 to -2.5. My book was slow to move so I hammered the Jets +7.5 pretty hard. I was able to get Dal +7.5 in a couple teasers and hedged a bunch with Dal -2.5 but I was heavy on the Jets +7.5 and it was over before half-time. By the way, how many times in my life have I had this situation play out? I get in 'great' on the Jets only for them to get completely blown out. I think the NYJ might have cost me more money than any other professional sports team on the planet.

Similar thing with BAL. Most books had them +1 where mine was at +1.5. Super late money came in on HOU to make the closing line mostly HOU -2.5, but it was HOU -1 for most of the week. Another one that was over before the half. (WTF is up with Baltimore? It looks like their window is closed before it even opened. It'll be interesting to see what happens there in the next few months).

NYG/NO was a little interesting. When the line opened at about NO -1, I actually jumped on NO -2.5 +116 pretty hard, which is the opposite of what I normally do. I just knew that the Giants won last week but it was all smoke and mirrors as they got insanely lucky. I figured the line would move in favor of NO and then I could pounce on the Giants with a teaser. That did happen pretty much exactly as I thought so I had a really juicy middle of NO -2.5 at plus odds with a NYG +8.5 Wong. It was looking good for a while and then somehow NO ended up winning by 12. This wasn't so bad as I had more on NO than I normally would have, but still stung.

CAR was the only team that prevented the clean sweep. I got in early on CAR +7.5 pretty big and also had it as the last leg in a few 3 teamers left over from Week 4. With game day money coming in on CAR, I mostly let this one ride and it was my biggest position of the day. Even though they quickly went down 17-0 (there was a 15 minute period yesterday where every single Wong I had was losing by like 4 scores), then managed to come back and win and save me an 0-4 start to the day.

The 4:00 slate was more of the same. I had a middle with ARZ -1.5 and TEN +7.5 that didn't hit thanks to another player celebrating a would-be touchdown by dropping the ball before he crossed the endzone. Is that not the most braindead fucking thing you have ever seen in your life? And it's already happened a couple times this year! (By the way, I have to mention this little fun piece of trivia: in the history of the NFL and players dropping the ball on purpose before scoring, it has never happened to a White player, as far as I've seen and I've looked into it. Funny!)

I got SEA -3 -118 (which lost) on Draft Kings early in the week which was a good bet considering it closed at a heavy -4. I also did a small -2.5 -120, +3 -110 middle on the LAC game which obviously didn't hit. Draft Kings put up a CIN +10.5 -112 line for most of the day where Pinnacle was at DET -10.5 +120ish. I unloaded my entire balance on CIN +10.5 at -112 and -115 and set up a nice scalp with Pinnacle. It made my effective bet something like 3 units of CIN +10.5 +150 where the market was at -125ish, no vig. So obviously an incredible bet that just didn't go my way.

Lastly, we had the SNF game. I put BUF -1.5 as the last leg of every single teaser I made. Even though most of them were toast by then, I did have a few sneak through. So I had a pretty big position of BUF -1.5. I hedged it out evenly though and got a decent number on the Pats ML so I made it so I made money no matter what happened. BUF winning would have been way better but I lost a lot of my risk appetite after the 4:00 slate and mostly evened the bet out. (For any n00bs reading this, that is generally what you should do during a downswing or even a really bad day/session. Lotta people do the opposite. They start pushing it if they lose big, especially at the starts or ends of sessions. I've seen it first hand countless times in many different forms/games. When things aren't going your way for the month, week, or even day, you slow down. Maybe take a little money off the table. The time to push is when you're already winning or up, which is usually when most people start to get a little risk averse, wanting to 'book a win.' This isn't just me saying that either, that's the correct thing to do in theory, too. You want to push edges when you're winning and protect yourself when you're not.) The only nightmare scenario was BUF winning by exactly 1 but I was ok with the risk. 

As bad as this week was, the final count could have been a lot worse. I lost 7ish units for the week which puts me down roughly 5 units for the NFL season. I'm up about 20 units total for the year, largely due to crushing Wongs at the very end of the last NFL season. Despite a rocky start to this year, I feel as confident as ever. I know I'm getting in good and it's only a matter of time before I have a week where I hit a few of these Wong middles clean. I'm fine with busting my DK balance too. I should have a decently long leash there and I should also be seeing a reload bonus in my promo's soon. Weeks like these make me appreciate my hedging/middling strategy when it comes to Wongs. If I had been riding naked on these, it would really have been a bloodbath. 

Shifting gears a bit, I have been getting more and more into futures trading on Robin Hood. Their sports markets are mostly un-usable with the high juice, but the other future options are very interesting. I bought a bunch of bullish options on the price of BTC a couple months ago, and then did something I rarely do: I doubled down a couple weeks ago when BTC corrected down to $110k. I had a bunch of bets that BTC would hit $125k this year and before Nov 2025 which obviously cashed this weekend.

Looking at these futures everyday has made me get in tune with the flow of them a little bit. One thing that stood out to me right away was how panicky they feel. Wild swings every time BTC drops or gains a couple percent. It made me think, is it possible that the market for crypto futures is largely old school Wall St, finance guys? And could it be that they aren't exactly familiar with the volatility in crypto markets? A 10% drop in a day with Bitcoin is really nothing. But to a grizzled 55 year old Wall St. guy, a trillion dollar asset dropping 10% in a couple hours is probably panic-inducing. It was weird seeing my entire slate of futures go from green to red and then back to green with a super typical BTC day/week. Perhaps it's a good strategy to scoop up bullish futures on red BTC days? I mean, that's fairly obvious I suppose, but I do think there's a good chance that the futures market hasn't fully absorbed the volatility inherent in crypto markets. 

My crypto outlook has really solidified for the next few months. Pretty much the same thing I've been saying: we haven't really even started the bull run yet. We've been hugging the 'fair value' trendline since June 2022, more than 3 years now, by far the longest we've gone without a blow-off top. For the past 4 cycles, BTC has been fairly predictable in post halving years. Up in the summer, down in Aug/Sept, touch the 50 week MA, and then up in Oct into our alt season/blow off top. The big question now is will there even be an alt-season this year? Alt-coins have really kind of shown their ass this cycle as BTC dominance continues its steady climb. As long as we stay above $100k, I think the bull cycle is still firmly in play. This cycle will be a really big one for the future of alt-coins. If retail doesn't come back and we get no alt-season at all, I would be really nervous holding a big bag of any of them, ETH included. The King stays The King.

Anywho, that's it for me for today. Talk soon, bye for now!

BTC price: $126k

BTC marketcap: $2.496T

Total marketcap: $4.29T

BTC dominance (including stables): 58.1%

Total cryptos on coinmarketcap: 22.26 M