Taking a little break from the modeling today. I actually busted it out for the first Car/Fla game and went 2-0 with Reinhart and Stankoven under SOG bets but I didn't get around to posting them. I'm on the fence with this model, I think if I do want to continue modeling I do need to step up my base knowledge. I kind of stopped learning about math and data and programming once I got my models going and I never even considered using anything other than poisson. I just ordered a new book by Andrew Mack from a recommendation in the comments and on X that I think will help me progress. I have a few new sports betting books waiting to be read once I finish my alien books so I will probably have another book review coming up. I will have a post about aliens soon too. If you don't know anything about it, prepare to have your mind completely fucking blown. I'm not kidding, it is easily the craziest shit I have ever read. I'm just finishing John Mack's main book and then I think I'll get into it.
But today I want to get into something else. I suppose this is politics adjacent, but it's more than that. The situation in South Africa and the fact that America took in 60 White refugees has exposed the American left for their utter, naked, impossible to deny anymore hatred of White people. I know it sounds hyperbolic but don't know how else to say it. How else can you possibly explain their reaction to, again, 60 people fleeing actual, open racial violence wanting to come here as refugees? The same people who protest in the streets with gigantic signs saying 'Refugees Welcome' and who have made immigration and 'refugees seeking asylum' as their entire ethos, wildly and belligerently opposing 60 White people applying for asylum? Again, sixty people. Not 6 million, not 60,000, not even 600. Not even 60 families! 60 people. Like, barely more than the number of active players for a single NFL team. We're talking half of one plane load of people!
Let's look at the facts first.
If you're completely unaware of the situation, I wouldn't blame you. The mainstream news hasn't touched this story with a ten foot pole until the South African refugees were granted asylum and their president made the trip to the White House and 'GoT AmBuShEd!' But basically, South Africa has been falling apart for a while now. I first started seeing things in the middle of the pandemic if I remember correctly, 2020, 2021ish. I'm not going to do a whole in-depth piece on the history of South Africa, but the very broad strokes are that they used to operate under Apartheid rules, which were race based laws that were unfavorable to the black population. It was in place from 1948 to about 1993. Ever since it ended, South Africa has drifted into the same sort of collectivist, racially segregated civilization as it was before, only with the roles flipped. Did you know that there are more race based laws on their books now than there ever was during Apartheid? The only difference is now the blacks are in charge and the laws are meant to hurt the whites. It's the main reason Elon Musk lives in America. His companies would never have been possible in South Africa. He still can't get Starlink up in SA because it doesn't have a black owner. The fact that Elon Musk is literally from South Africa doesn't seem to matter.
I've read some really good in depth pieces on SA and Rhodesia (modern day Zimbabwe) so instead of trying to rehash what I've read, I can just link them. Why Rhodesia Matters is a good one. This is another good one. That whole "substack spider web" is a good resource. The view from a thousand feet up is that basically, the blacks in SA are out for revenge on the whites, specifically the farmers, or 'Boers' as they're called. On X there are countless, and I do mean countless, horrific pictures and videos and stories of entire white farmer families being brutally murdered (and worse) by black South Africans. There's a couple of videos going around with literal stadiums full of black South Africans at political rallies singing along and chanting 'Kill The Boer'. 'Kill The Boer, Kill The Farmer' is actually, somehow, considered 'protected speech' and 'part of their tradition' by the South African Supreme Court, which, apparently, is a thing.
There was a terrifying video I saw recently where a white family was attacked by a group of blacks and escaped to a police station. The attackers followed them to the police station, INTO the police station, and attacked them there! For a while, too. They were trying to get their phones which had evidence of the attack. No one stopped them and you can actually see black policemen just kind of standing around, watching. Can you imagine the terror? Nowhere to go. There have also been pictures and reports of some of the farm murderers having radio signal jammers on them so the family can't call anyone during the attack. The jammers are like $15k and military grade. It's hard to possibly explain how a disgruntled ex farm hand would get his hands on something like that. So the violence is somewhat state/military sponsored, if not outright encouraged. Black leaders have called for the expropriation (fancy word for theft) of white famers lands to give to black people, without compensation. Search "south africa" or "south african farm murders" on X if you're a sick fuck and you want to see for yourself what's going. We're talking entire families massacred, including their dogs, mothers and 5 year old daughters being raped in front of everyone. It's about more than robbery and wanting land back and even more than murder. There's a particular, terrifying malice and burning white hot hatred at the center of it. So you can understand why some of these white farmers with families might want to escape.
The stats for South Africa are horrific too, of course. As of 2023, it had a higher per capita crime rate than Somalia. It has 80 murders a day, a farm murder a week, a rape every four minutes, and two riots a day. There are 3 welfare dependents for every net taxpayer. And by the way, the numbers are all reported mostly by the South African government, who we just have to take at their word. So they're almost certainly a lot worse in reality.
[Sources: (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/crime-rate-by-country)
(https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/a-boers-view-of-the-crisis-in-south)
This is a good X account from someone who lives in Pretoria who is basically documenting the collapse of South Africa in real time: https://x.com/k9_reaper ]
Here is a terrifying excerpt from the article I just linked to:
"TAT: And while we’re on the security situation, what can you tell us about the infamous farm attacks? Are the thugs really using signal jammers?
K9: Ok, so farm attacks in South Africa are extremely brutal events. You’ve got people who are breaking into farms, farmhouses, etc. And they’re not just taking stuff. They’re staying for hours and hours once they’ve brutally tortured these individuals.
Now, the torture can be anything from pouring boiling water over them to literally putting their babies in stoves, burning them with hot irons, shoving broken glass bottles up female anatomy, dragging alive individuals behind vehicles, hanging them, burning them. It’s really, whatever you can imagine as the worst torture method possible; that’s what these individuals are doing.
And one of the favorites, unfortunately, is to attack the farmhouse, break-in, and it tends to always involve rape, unfortunately. So they will rape the daughter, no matter how old she is. Whether she is five years old, ten years old, twenty, etc. And they’ll rape the mother, all the other females. And they do it in front of the males, every single time. The male family members will obviously be tied up, usually shot in the leg, then they’ll proceed to rape the other family members in front of them. Now usually, when they do the rape thing, it usually involves someone dying. And it’s usually the male member of the household because they tend to shoot them when they leave.
Farm attacks seem to be a very racially driven thing in South Africa…at the end of the day, the attacks are mostly blacks attacking whites because that’s just how it is. And somehow, that’s just not apparent enough for people to accept. And, obviously, there’s the brutality behind it when it comes to blacks attacking whites with regard to farm attacks. There’s definitely a racial element to it.
Signal jammers are being used for everything from everything from hijackings, cash-in transfer heists, home invasions, and farm attacks as well. So the signal jammer, depending on the model, works at blocking all incoming and outgoing signals from everything from cell phones to radios to even some security cameras in a range of 25 to 100 meters. The sole goal of a signal jammer is to ensure that your target can’t call for help. The reason they use them for farm attacks is that a lot of farmers are out of the community safety initiative and they rely on radios to be able to call for help to one another, to come and assist.
You’re probably thinking of that famous picture of that guy with the signal jammer backpack during a farm attack. It was like a black-and-white photo, and he had that proper military signal jammer. That wasn’t just anything you could get from Alibaba, or even from Mozambique and just driving it over the border or something. That was a proper military use jammer pack in use with the SADF. You’ll see a lot of military and ex-active duty military personnel in these farm attacks, and they often just take what they need from the military before they go out on the attacks.
In essence, the farm attacks are the most brutal thing anyone can imagine. They make those attacks going on in Israel and Gaza look like a walk in the park. And the use of the signal jammer packs is real. It is happening on a daily basis. Both to the citizens of the Republic of South Africa and to people they want to assassinate.
So yeah, South Africa is an exceptionally dangerous place and it’s never going to change. In fact, it’s only going to get worse, no matter how much we try to stop it. But all we can do is keep trying. There’s nothing more we can do."
Is that not one of the most disturbing, depressing things you've ever read in your entire fucking life?
So imagine you're a member of the American left currently. You've defended and supported literally tens of millions of immigrants coming to the US since Biden took over, with a lot of them claiming refugee status. And not just supported and defended, but basically made it the backbone of your entire platform. Anyone and everyone can claim asylum, even if they pass over a dozen safe countries on their way here, even if they regularly vacation to the place they're supposedly fleeing from. Even if it's just like six young men who are, by their own and the lefts own admission, fleeing their home country because of fear of violence, but are ok with leaving family behind. All of that is not only ok, but it is a duty for us as Americans to take them in. Now imagine, after this sea of immigration for four plus years, tens of millions of people from all over the globe; Sudan, Honduras, China, Pakistan, India, Africa, Venezuela, Mexico...you name it. Signing up for benefits at a higher rate than American citizens, being given preferential treatment in housing and hiring, while a good chunk of them openly detest America and a loud minority of them actually call for the destruction of America while enrolled at some of the most (formerly) prestigious and expensive colleges in the world. Imagine you hear about 60 people from South Africa, mostly families, all workers, who want to come here as refugees to escape a brewing genocide where children are literally being put into ovens. Small groups of them, again, sixty in total, with their little kids in tow, waving American flags. How would your position NOT be "yes the refugee system is a vitally important program to help people flee violence, and anyone fleeing violence should be swiftly taken in by America." That would give the whole program more legitimacy and their own position more legitimacy. But they just can't. The reaction to these people has been insane. Unhinged. Look for yourself on social media and on the mainstream news. Watch Tim Kaine and Marco Rubio go at it the other day.
They are quite literally 'well actually-ing' a genocide!
https://x.com/NewsHour/status/1925271647872807169
Here's a tweet from PBS stating that White farmers have been murdered in South Africa. But those murders account for less than 1% of more than 27,000 annual murders nationwide.
Experts said the deaths do not amount to genocide, and President Donald Trump misleads about land confiscation. (via ) https://to.pbs.org/4msUep6
However, there are about 44k White farmers in SA, or about .07% of the population. So if they make up 1% of murders, that's an over representation of over 1300%!
So the question is obvious. Why? Why the open hatred of these people? Why the petulant, panicked, breathless debate about if it's technically a genocide or not? Quibbling over murder/population numbers like it's an SAT question. Did you ever hear something like that with regards to asylum seekers before? No one denies that America has the room for these 60 people and no one even denies that they'll be a net positive for us. No one even denies that they're being targeted for violence! It's just 'WE DON'T WANT THEM' screeched loudly.
I guess the left is saying that the administration is giving these people preferential treatment over, say, Venezuelans, but again, it's 60 people! They're here already! I don't even expect the left to actually believe themselves when they say something like 'yes the refugee system is vital, they and everyone else should be welcome.' But they can't even bring themselves to lie!
The only sensible conclusion that I can come to is that these people, by and large, simply hate white people, and they aren't even hiding it anymore. What other reason could there be? Imagine an entire stadium filled with white Australians. A hundred thousand of them signing 'Kill The Brown Farmer.' Imagine that the white Aussies were attacking brown farm owners, massacring their family, dragging them behind their cars to death, raping their 5 year old daughters in front of them. Imagine a political party in Australia whose slogan is 'Kill The Brown Farmer.' Now imagine 60 of those brown farm owners wanted to flee and come to America as refugees. Do you think that people on the left would oppose them coming here? Do you think they'd take pictures of them at the airport and find one fat guy and say that they can't possibly be fleeing from anything? Do you think they'd go to the airport to greet them with a sign disparaging them? Or do you think they'd be protesting in the street, gluing their hands to highways in support of them? So what's the difference? Only one I can see is the fact that these people are white. I know it's somewhat 'uncouth' to say something like that, but why, exactly? Also, I just truly do not give a shit what I'm allowed to say or think anymore, at all. And a lot of people agree with me. Which brings me to my next point. The growing schism on the right.
There has been a pretty big crack forming in the online right ecosystem. This is a little inside baseball (and bordering on too-online, I will admit) so maybe it isn't common knowledge, but the big split is basically between the sort of establishment, Ben Shapiro, Babylon Bee 'cucked' right (as some might say), and the Jared Taylor, Nick Fuentes, kind-of-Matt Walsh-now-somehow, more collectivist 'woke' right (again, as some might say). A lot of it has to do with Israel and Jews in general, but I think it's even bigger than that. The Ben Shapiro side is clinging to the 'we're all the same, we should strive for a colorblind society' mantra (and Israel is as important as America, for some reason). They're more libertarian leaning, I guess, but they're still far from libertarians. The Jared Taylor side claims that humans are tribalistic no matter what and the entire world is race conscious and advocates for their racial group and whites are being left behind, doomed to dwindle away to nothing some day. By not being concerned with our race, at least as much as other groups are, they would say that we're in a fight but we've decided to tie an arm behind our backs.
And I cannot deny where I stand, nor do I want to, and it ain't on the cucked side. Libertarianism, individualism, free markets, democracy, these are all great, precious, delicate things. Hallmarks of a successful civilization. But I'm beginning to think they aren't like these blank slate variables that can have anyone or anything plugged into them and work seamlessly. Different people are different and they value and want different things. I'm not even saying one way is better, either. I know which way I think is better for me, but I can only speak for myself. Libertarianism assumes everyone in a society to be a rational actor, rational acting to make himself and his surroundings better, always with the long term in view. But is that really the case?
Nothing encapsulates my current thinking about libertarianism better or more succinctly than this meme:
This entire blog was an excuse to post that. Just kidding, but I do love it.
I know I'm veering all over the place here but I guess I've had this post churning around for a while. I've considered myself a libertarian for almost two decades but I am fully out now. It's perfect on paper and in theory but so is communism, technically. It just assumes too much about people and leaves you open to attack. There's also this new idea floating around that I see more and more about how Democracy always eventually ends with groups of people voting for more and more resources for themselves. As they get more things and grow, their vote share gets bigger and bigger, so politicians are incentivized to acquiesce to them. A feedback loop begins and before you know it, one group dominates society and decides they're entitled to whatever another group has and war breaks out and it all collapses on itself. Kind of what's happening in South Africa right now.
I think the driving force behind the 'collectivist right' is that it's either we're a colorblind meritocracy or we're not. We're fine either way but you gotta pick one. We're done playing by the rules and pretending race isn't real while everyone else acts like they're stars in a Spike Lee movie. Would you condemn a Japanese man for wanting Japan to stay Japanese? Would you scream 'racist' at a Black man who wanted to live in a Black community? Does Israel have the obligation, to the world, to be multicultural? Does a Muslim nation have the moral duty to accept non-Muslims who openly despise Islam, mock it and openly call for the destruction of it? So why do White nations and people have different rules?
Look, I know you probably didn't come here to read stuff like this. This is a little bit much, I'll admit, and I will probably have a part two to this. Sometimes I get kind of stream of consciousness-y and, again, this is a completely free blog. Not even any ads on the godamn sides. This is and will always remain a blog mostly about advantage gambling. But what I see feels so absurdly unjust to me, so blatantly hypocritical, that it feels wrong not to at least address it somehow. Not that making a blog post is really 'doing something' but everyone has a role. It just feels like we've all gotten too comfortable, too docile, too eager to go along to get along. Eager to believe insidious lies about ourselves, lies that we knew were lies. We've let strangers take something from us that we barely knew we had.
But I think that's just about over now, actually. You can kind of feel it, a little tiny bit. What kind of world do we want for our kids and their kids? Did we stop thinking about that? Or did I just start? Anything worth having will have to be defended at some point. That's what the word 'worth' means. Everyone is a 'blood and soil nationalist' for their own people. Everyone. It's time we stop pretending we don't know that.
