Been a while since we really checked in on the Bitcoin/crypto world, and with BTC at the quietest all time high in its existence, I thought now would be a good time. I also want to do a rundown of the stocks I own and trade as well as my general strategy and outlook on stocks in general. A little bit of politics with the whole Epstein case back in the news. Finally, a look at a few books I've been reading plus some other things I've been meaning to talk about on here but aren't worthy of their own post. Also, I have officially begun writing my Alien Post in my head, so be on the lookout for that in the next week or so. But today, let's do a big look around, shall we?
First off: crypto. Bitcoin just ever so casually sitting at about $120k with a beefy $2.35T market cap, flirting with new all time highs. I know I've said it before but it's interesting how every cycle has it own little narrative. This cycle has largely been the alt-coin reckoning, BTC dominance and BTC ETF show. But another interesting aspect of this cycle that I haven't seen talked about too much is the utter lack of retail. Not like it's simply more quiet than other cycles, but it's more like retail just is literally not there at all. My favorite crypto youtube guy, Ben Cowen, has all kinds of charts and videos on the subject which you should check out, but it's pretty obvious even without any kinds of charts. I see Bitcoin mentioned in financial news and media all the time but that's really it. Remember how insane things were in the 2020 cycle? You would see or hear some kind of Bitcoin reference every single day, outside of the finance world. Now? Barely a peep. I can't remember the last time I personally talked to anyone about it. It feels like the adoption phase is fully behind us now. You're either on board or you're not. I feel like a lot of people seem to think they missed the boat but that really isn't the case at all. As I will try to show, I think Bitcoin still has a long, long way to go before it begins to level off somewhat.
Personally, I've pretty much stopped talking about it with friends and the like. I was quite the BTC proselytizer in the first few years I got involved, but looking back, I really can't say it did a whole lot. I got my wife and and I guess a couple close friends into it, kind of, but most people either get it or don't. The vast majority don't, and a good chunk pretend to, I think. But I can really only think of like one or two people who actually bought it. And I really don't give a shit anymore. I always think back to that great Michael Saylor quote: 'everyone will buy bitcoin at the price they deserve.' It has been by far the best performing asset since its inception, it is super easy to purchase and hold, and it has just quietly and systematically mowed down every instance of FUD in its path. Every silly argument against it, batted down one by one like flies. I will never forget the sentiment in late 2022 during the last bear market. The cringe inducing 'r/buttcoin' subreddit with tens of thousands of people cheering and celebrating every leg down. The smarmy, fake-smart, insufferable and always wrong economists and 'academics' taking victory laps as bitcoin plunged under $20k. Even people in my own friend group, some of who helped me get into crypto in the first place, calling it an 'interesting experiment that failed' and making fun of people who held it. Truthfully, it shocked me to my core seeing how fickle people are. Now where are these people? Probably pretending they supported it the whole time. (Honestly, now that we're well past it, how fucking insane was the 2020 'covid era'? So many people, famous and not, just completely abandoning any pretense of integrity or idealogical consistency. I had no idea how many people are just completely blowing in the wind, adopting and abandoning 'principles' just as fast. I truly am a different man having lived through all that. I will never see people the same again). I remember telling a few friends that I was buying when BTC was at the bottom of the bear market and I'll never forget their reactions. It was like I told them I was investing in literal shit and piss. I can still picture their faces. They couldn't believe I would be buying bitcoin during a bear market! Hello! That's the goal, people. Buy low, sell high. One of the biggest shocks I have received since I got into investing was how many people get this completely backwards. They FOMO into shit at tippy tops and then panic sell at the bottom. I genuinely did not know that that was the general noob investor trend before I got into it all myself. The urge to be one of the herd is more powerful than I realized (he said from his throne, hair blowing in the wind. I realize how pretentious this all sounds but it is true).
Even with BTC being at an all time high, the technicals are still showing we're nowhere near over heated. Ben Cowen's logarithmic regression band actually has the total crypto marketcap as under fair value right now! The BTC regression band is still calmly in the green accumulation zone. I'm going to do something I rarely do here and give out a price prediction, whatever it's worth. I think BTC hits $200k this cycle quite easily, and I think $300k is in play. The very bottom of the red bubble zone in Cowens model is $300k in December of 2025, and the top of the band is $450k. If you believe in diminishing returns, as I do, that might be a bit too high. But I think we see $200k this cycle and somewhere around $250k for a top sometime in the winter, and I think that is being conservative.
It is also starting to feel like alt-coin season might be here soon. We've seen a big move from ETH and other related alts the past month or so. ETH/BTC has bounced hard off of .018 and is now at about .028. Alt season typically brings retail back in, as noobs FOMO into stuff like BoobAndDickcoin. THAT is who I plan on selling a good chunk of my alts to. Personally, I know I will be using this upcoming alt season to convert most of what I have into solely bitcoin. I'll always keep some exposure to ETH and my little Chainlink and LTC sidepieces, but I want it closer to like 75% BTC, 25% everything else. I will for sure be dumping my Matic when/if the price rebounds this cycle. I'll be looking for BTC/ETH to hit around .07, .08 to start unwining a good chunk of my ETH holdings and turning them into BTC.
Speaking of alt season, however, if you look at a BTC/ETH chart, you'll notice that in June of every year for the past 4 years, ETH has pumped against BTC only to get whacked back down again. This time may be different with the halving being about a year behind us and a rate cut or two in the pocket of the Fed, but I would not be shocked to see ETH fall off a cliff again.
Like I've said a millon times before though, there really isn't a whole lot more to say about crypto. If you're not on board by now, you probably never will be. The only advice I have to give is to buy as much Bitcoin as you possibly can and hold onto it, preferably in cold storage. Other than that, I don't know what else to say to convince anyone, nor do I really care to anymore either.
Switching gears somewhat, one thing I've never really got into on here was Stocks. Stonks. I barely know what the fuck I'm doing with them so it never felt right to discuss as I am far from an expert. But you know what? Neither is anyone else. And now with a good 5 years under my belt and an ROI in just stocks approaching 100%, I think I have at least something to offer. Before I get into specifics though, let me just give you the single best advice about stocks I can possibly think of. Something I wish someone had told me 20 years ago, which is this: start. Just start. It isn't nearly as complicated as it seems, you can get it going from scratch in a matter of days, and you can start with as little money as you want. You can start with 20 bucks! (This is another thing that real n00bs get wrong that I didn't understand until I saw it firsthand. A lot of people, apparently, don't realize you don't have to buy full shares of companies. If a stock is, say, $1200 a share, you don't have to have $1200 to invest in it. You can invest literally one dollar in anything on Robinhood. I know this is noob city stuff, but two people I've talked to about stocks and crypto didn't know that. One of my college friends who is no dummy thought you had to buy a full Bitcoin if you wanted to invest at all, and another was bitching about being priced out of the stock market. He didn't know you could buy partial shares of stocks!) So again, my biggest piece of advice in stocks and crypto and investing in general is just start doing it. You honestly have to try to lose money in the stock market. It just goes up! (All it's really doing is tracking real inflation anyway). Sure there's volatility but have some balls. Start slow and small, learn and add as you go, don't use leverage or options or anything like that, certainly not at the beginning. Buy stock in companies you understand and/or use, don't panic sell, and in a few years you're almost guaranteed profit. Oh and also, keep track. This is something I carried over from my heavy sports betting days. Keeping really good records in excel or google sheets is a must. I could share my sheet if anyone is interested, but it's pretty simple. For each stock I own, I have a section in my sheet where I put in each buy and sell with a date. They all add up so you know your exact position. The things I have it calculate are total shares, net money spent, total current value, average price, and net money up or down and ROI. I have a line for 'market price' that I update every time I check it and then a section at the top that adds everything together. So I know how much I've invested, how much I'm up, what everything is worth currently and the total ROI of everything. It's very simple but effective. Without it, everything would be a blur.
I've noticed something of a mental block for most people when it comes to stocks and investing. It's like they view it as something that is just out of reach for them. But like I said before, it honestly isn't nearly as complicated as it seems. Seriously, if there is one general thing I could do over in my life, it would probably be to get into investing way earlier. (Fun aside: when I was a kid, something like 14 or so, I called a Charles Schwab office on the phone trying to get money invested. My parents owned some stocks, I think, but they weren't exactly the type to like, teach me stuff, which may be the subject of a post down the line. That boomer-parent, millennial-child weird relationship where no one explained anything or told us a fucking thing that as I get older I find more and more bizarre. Anyway, stocks and investing always sort of had a spot in my brain but I didn't know the very first thing about it. So I somehow called a Charles Schwab office and left message. I remember panicking a few days later when they called back and I saw their name on my parents caller ID. It felt like I was doing something wrong for some reason. My grandmother was there watching me and my brother (so I must have been really young actually now that I think about it) and some guy told her that the minimum to get started was something like $20k. I pretended I had no idea what she was talking about. I don't even know why I'm even telling this story except for the fact that that is how investing felt to me and I assume other people my age too. Like a big secret, not for people like me and something wrong that I could get in trouble for even broaching. That's strange, isn't it?)
My general strategy for stocks has been to own something like a dozen or so at a time and buy and sell them accordingly. My biggest mistake at the start was way too much selling. The sports bettor/trader in me always wants to buy something, sell it for a profit, then buy it back again for cheaper. When that works you feel like a genius but looking back, I would have been better off had I not made so many sells. You get whacked with a tax bill every year too which is something I have to learn more about.
So for whatever it's worth, here is my stock portfolio and a little info on each one.
In order of my biggest holdings to smallest:
Amazon. Average price $95 per share, currently about $225 per share. You know why I started buying this stock in 2022? I was once on a ski trip in the middle of the woods and rented a movie from Amazon on my kindle. I had really bad service where we were but the movie played fine until the end. It started to freeze and play shitty and I think I gave up on trying to watch it. I figured I was lucky to watch it at all with the spotty service, it was something like 3 bucks and I didn't really care about the movie so I just forgot about it. The next day, I got an unsolicited e-mail from Amazon saying that they noticed I had trouble finishing my rented movie and they refunded the purchase. I thought, if they have this attention to detail with a three dollar movie rental in a hundred billion dollar company, they must really know what they're doing. Again, I didn't even email them about it. So I started buying small when it was around $100/share and made some really good sells when it shot straight up and did a good job buying it back when it went down. I've also seen many interviews with Jeff Bezos and even though he's a cringey, bug-eyed lizard person with the worst taste I've ever seen, he certainly knows business. And now we all know how good they are at delivery and I like having exposure to big companies fucking around with AI. My ROI is 135% in Amazon so far and I just add a little bit anytime it drops. This is one of the stocks I own in a company I truly believe it and plan on having forever.
Tesla: Average price $156/share, currently $330. One of the first stocks I bought in 2021 for around $270/share. I have done a really good job trading this stock with my average buys being $220 and average sells being $268. Not much I can tell you about Tesla that you don't already know. The knock on them has always been that they're over valued but I think the old school way of valuing stocks doesn't really work anymore. I think Elon is a bonafide genius and a modern day Henry Ford. Similar with Amazon, one thing I like to do in stocks is bet on the man. The way I see it, as long as Elon is in charge, Tesla stock will generally go up. I also like the volatility. Make some small sells when it shoots straight up and scoop it back up when it goes down. Like Amazon, I plan on holding exposure to Tesla for a very long time, at least until Elon leaves. My ROI is just over 100%.
Eli Lilly: Average price $595/share, currently $775. I heard about them in early 2023 when I was on a plane and read an article about them in the Economist. That was the first time I heard about how they were basically solving weight loss. My first buy was for $350/share and I'll always regret not being more aggressive with it. I've added slowly to my position and have made some nice sells at around $780 in mid 2024 and around $900 in February this year. This is another one I really believe in and plan on holding and adding to basically forever. My ROI is only 30% which isn't great, but their next thing is attacking alzhymers disease and as more people get used to the GLP 1's, I think it has plenty of room to run. They also pay a little dividend which is nice.
Netflix: Average price $60/share (!), currently $1200. This is one of my best performing stocks ROI wise, but I own less than a full share. I will always be kicking myself for how I handled this stock. I first starting buying in early 2022 when their stock fell off a cliff and went from $690 to $200 after one bad earnings report. Everyone I knew not only had Netflix but were kind of addicted to it. I knew Netflix wasn't going anywhere. But I couldn't help myself and made a bunch of sells as it rebounded into the $500 range. I wasn't really able to get back in and I stopped selling when it crossed $600. My Netflix experience was a really good learning curve. You don't have to sell something just because it's way up. I'll be looking to buy back in if they ever have a dip but this is one I just like to hold. My ROI is 1888%
Robinhood: Average price $10.4 share, currently $110. I started buying this mid 2024 around $18/share and really timed it nicely. I made one sell mid 2025 for $64/share so that's how my average price is so low. Robinhood took a massive hit, rightfully so, with the GME debacle. But other than that, I have to say, they have one of the most user friendly apps I have ever used. Everything is very simple and intuitive. They basically game-ified investing. When I'm out and about, I see random people on their phones checking their RH accounts all the time. They have a young user base who will only grow and get more money as time goes on. This is another one that I kick myself for not being more aggressive with. ROI: 960%.
Draftkings: Average price $23/share, currently $43. I've talked about them numerous times on here but this is one of those companies that just has a license to print money. Seriously, think about the amount of people you know that use DK. Despite what they say, nearly 100% of them will be lifetime losers and will be happy to keep re-depositing. Their app is really good too and I also saw an interview with their head trader once and he impressed me. This isn't a stock that I'm married to but I'll definitely be looking if it dips at all. ROI: 85%.
McDonalds: Average price $234/share, currently $300. Little bit of a diversification play. I know I don't need to sell you on McDonalds. Just a behemoth of a company. Also, super predictive macro looking chart. Seriously, look at their chart. From 2015 on, it's basically a perfectly diagonal line up to the right. Pretty easy to trade and they also pay a nice little 2.32% dividend. ROI is only 28% but this is a super long term play.
Nividia: Average price $43/share, currently $170. Another once I'll be kicking myself over forever. I remember reading about them all the time on reddit back in 2020 when they were like $10/share. All the gamers knew about chips and how important they were going to be. I started buying early 2024 at about $60/share and have been adding on slowly since. I made a little sell at $105/share and bought back in at $96, and made a sell at $140 a couple months ago which is how my average price is so low. This is another one I would have been better off not selling at all though obviously. This stock is valued pretty high now and everyone knows about it so I don't plan on adding much. It pays a tiny .02% dividend which is strange. ROI: 294%.
Carvana: Average price less than $0/share, currently $340. This is my best performing stock ROI wise as I have sold more of it than I invested, so I'm completely free rolling. I only own 1 share exactly so it hasn't been a huge raw return, but I'm up more than double the share price. I actually started buying this stock early 2023 when my wife told me this story: Her friend was shopping for a car which we all know is such a brutal process. The slimy salesman got her number from the paperwork and texted her to ask her out! She was beyond grossed out. I just thought, this whole industry is like something from the past, like watching a bear ride a bike or something. It's ripe for an overhaul. In late 2023 it absolutely crashed all the way to $4/share and I scooped up another 5 shares for like 20 bucks. I've made a ton of sells and a few buys for less on its way up. I don't give a shit about the company and everything I read about it sounds like a complete sham. Yet all it does is go up. It bounces around a lot so it's easy to scoop up dips and sell tops and I am not even remotely married to this stock, but it has been quite the performer for me. ROI: technically infinity.
Compass: Average price $8.5/share, currently $4.3. They can't all be winners. This is one of three of my 'mushroom stocks.' I started buying this early 2022 at around $15/share and added more on its way down. My thesis for these mushroom stocks is that I know from personal experience that there is absolutely something there with psilocybin (magic) mushrooms. I think they may have the power to actually treat stuff like depression and anxiety, and the current medicine for that is woefully ineffective and possibly even harmful. I wanted exposure to companies fucking around with mushrooms and I still think it's a good long term play, but this stock has been a dud so far. It's also a foreign company which costs a small amount of money every month to hold in Robinhood. I think these plays will pay off sometime down the line, and I do keep up with their research trials, but it's iffy at best. There are many hurdles. ROI: -54%.
Cybin: Average price $24.75/share, currently $8.4. Basically the same exact thing as above, only a little worse. ROI: -66%.
Mind Medicine: Average price $4.15/share, currently $9 and pumping. Another mushroom play but this has gone a bit better. I started buying this late 2022 when it was over $40/share. I kept buying as it went down and then for basically this entire year, I've sold a little every time it went to $7.75 and higher, and bought back in when it went under $7 and even $6. I also hit the bottom nicely early 2024, picking up about 20 shares at $3.6/share. This has been one of my favorite stocks to trade. For this whole year, it basically oscillated between $8 and $6, very predictably. From January to June, I was able to net 10 shares for less than 10 bucks with a bunch of small buys and sells. A couple more sells and I'll be free-rolling on this one just like with Carvana. The only real risk I'm taking with selling when it hits $8 and $9/share is missing out on a big, real run back up to something like $40. But with no news and the ability to see the order book with Robinhood Gold, I feel pretty confident that isn't about to happen. I also now never sell all of a stock. With it being above $9 now, I'll keep making small sells and then start buying back in when/if it goes sub about $7.5 share. ROI: 117%.
Ally: Average price $22/share, currently $40. I started buying this mid 2023 when Warren Buffet announced he bought a big stake in it. I don't really know or care much about this stock and I have made two nice sells at $40/share in the past couple years and bought back in lower. Small exposure, really more of a diversification play and it does pay a nice little 3% dividend. I'll probably just sit on this forever. ROI: 74%.
Google: Average price $147, currently $184. Another one I will be kicking myself over for a long time. I have a very clear memory of almost buying this stock in February 2023. Remember when they released their AI bot thing named Bard and it made a mistake during its demo? Here's the story if you don't. I clearly remember that day and thinking it was a perfect time to buy Google stock. I put in a limit order to buy at $80 share and it fucking bottomed at $85! It's been basically straight up since then. That was a good lesson. Sometimes you just have to pounce, period. I bought the latest dip in March this year for $147 and have just held steady since. I would like more exposure here as they're investing heavily in AI but it feels like I missed the boat. ROI: 25%.
So that's everything I own, but for completeness sake, there have been a good amount of stocks that I owned at one point and sold all of. I'm down a small amount total on all of these. Real quick:
SOL, PYCO, TIL, TSP: I don't even remember most of these. I think they were European power supply companies I bought when the Russia/Ukraine war started that never really panned out.
GameStop: Fucking disaster. This was actually the very first stock I ever bought and was the initial reason for getting Robinhood in the first place. I was a little late to the party though and eventually capitulated a year or so later, down a couple hundred bucks after an absurd roller coaster of a ride and lots of a buys and sells.
AMC: Same thing but even worse. I had to learn this shit the hard way.
ROKU: Bought a little bit when Cathie Wood announced they bought it. Exited with a small profit. I've never met anyone who actually uses Roku.
Penn: One of the very first stocks I bought from a recommendation from a friend who apparently only bought it because Dave Portnoy did. Again, this is how I learn. Trial and error. That friend, by the way, is one of a couple who I use as top signals. When he tells me to buy a stock I know it might be a good idea to start selling.
DJT: I bought this during the debate with Biden as I was watching Biden melt in real time. I thought it was a good proxy for Trump exposure which was a good idea in hindsight, just not great execution. I didn't have any way to bet on him winning the election at that time though. I exited completely a couple months later basically breaking even.
So that's my entire history with stocks. Altogether I've basically doubled my money since early 2021. I started out super small and my stock exposure is like 20% of my crypto exposure, but it has been worth it. One thing you might have noticed is that I never mentioned anything about P/E ratios or market caps or any kind of technicals. I do look at that stuff, but my general thesis is that all of that information is embedded in the price already. I really don't think there's anything in earning reports or technical analysis that I'm going to uncover that JP Morgan or any of the other hundreds of thousands of hedge fund guys don't. I like betting on the man like with Amazon and Tesla, anything with a big company tinkering with AI is attractive to me. I also look for dips with established companies like with Netflix and Google. I like to keep up with the big boys like Warren Buffet and Ark Invest and dabble when they do. Similar to chasing steam in sports betting. But I generally like to keep it to roughly the same companies and buy and sell accordingly, sometimes adding in a new one or selling all of something. After a while with a stock, you start to get a feel for different levels of support and resistance and the way it moves. I think Robinhood Gold is worth paying for too, just for the access to the order book.
Another positive aspect of trading stocks is that it really forces you to stay in tune with the news and world events. It's always on my mind, when I see a big story I think about how the market might react. It's interesting to think about that, too. What is the market, exactly? You're kind of betting on not only what you think your neighbor thinks, but it's more like what you think your neighbor thinks about his neighbor. Maybe I'm not explaining it correctly but just like with sports betting and even poker to a lesser extent, investing is predicting the future. You have to know people to be able to do it on your own, and that is something I've always been decent at. Long term profitability in the stock market without using any leverage or options or any kind of technical analysis or knowledge is evidence of that, in my opinion anyway. One last thing, I have another personal top signal that is kind of a joke but actually works. Whenever I have the urge to show my wife my Robinhood account, I start thinking about selling a little bit. That has historically been a sign for local tops for me.
On another note, the disgusting Epstein story marches on, now with Trump and his administration getting their hands dirty in it. The way they have handled everything so far has been breathtaking in its stupidity. From Pam Bondi releasing 'Phase 1' of the client list, only to back track and say there never was a client list in the first place, is truly astounding. And then for them to release that jail cell video with a minute missing, AND for it to have been edited multiple times in Adobe Pro! And now it looks like that may have not even been Epsteins' cell? Just truly unbelievable that they thought that was a good idea. Like we'd all watch that and just be like 'oh ok, case closed then!'
I can't tell you anything about Epstein you haven't seen before and I'm not going to do a deep dive on the whole story, but this is the best article I've ever seen on it. It has a ton of links in it that you can follow for basically as long as you want. It is as confusing, bizarre, shady, disgusting and shocking as it is depressing. Just a cesspool of rape, coercion, murder, lies, 'suicides', CIA, the fucking Mossad, pedophilia, billions of dollars out of nowhere. It's like every possible evil word in the English dictionary all in one place.
Tim Dillon had a great line this week: "You have to choose the pedophile you agree with. Which pedophile has a pro business attitude? You cannot ask that they don't fuck kids. That's a bridge too far." It really is fucking insane, isn't it? They aren't even hiding it anymore. I mean, do we really just have to accept the ruling class in America are literal pedophiles, barely even attempting to hide it? Is that really where we are right now? We are so over due for a true reckoning in this country. It's like the end days of Rome. I'm sure Trump will weather this like he has every other thing in the past, but he sure does make it hard to be even a tepid supporter of his. Him calling the whole thing a "Democrat hoax" is beyond a slap in the face. Imagine being one of those girls and hearing him say that? To think that of the entire Epstein saga, the only person in prison being a woman is again one of those things people will read 200 years from now and think it can't possibly be true.
Lastly, (shifting gears so hard the drive train falls out) I want to touch on a book I just finished. Well, a couple books, and they were actually comic books, or 'graphic novels.' I've never been a comic book/graphic novel guy in my life. Anytime I've seen a couple pages of them my eyes just glaze over. However, a couple months ago my family and I were on a walk and we came across a weird laundry basket full of books. It was in front of a house that I'm pretty sure was going through a divorce. Every week it seemed like a new bag or basket full of a mans things were outside to be taken or as trash. This time it was a whole bunch of books. So I stopped to check it out and I ended up taking like 6 or 7 of them. Among them were two comic books, V for Vendetta and The Watchmen. They sat in my room for months and months before I decided to give V for Vendetta a try and I was more than pleasantly surprised. Having never read one before, I was surprsied at how easy it was to read. I could almost feel something like a new pathway opening in my brain as I took in this new-to-me art form. V for Vendetta was awesome, really cool read. Once I finished I wanted more, so I started The Watchmen. And let me know tell you something. Having finished it now, The Watchmen was one of the very best books I have ever read. Top three, easily. If you've never read it and don't consider yourself a comic book guy, I heavily suggest you give it a try. It's amazing the amount of information and detail that can be conveyed through that medium. The combination of words, dialogue and pictures sets such a good, moody tone, and the story itself is so rich, so deep, it's hard to really describe. I can't wait to read it again. I get why they tried to make a movie and TV show out of it, and I get why neither of them were all that successful (though I will say, the HBO show was decent). Neither of them come remotely close to touching the greatness of the book though. I honestly can't stress enough how fucking good this thing was. Do yourself a favor and order a copy right now and thank me later. If anyone out there reading this has read it, I would love some recommendations on more graphic novels similar to The Watchmen, and if you do read it based on my recommendation, I'd love for you to comment and let me know how you liked it.
So that's about it for today, be on the lookout for my big alien post coming soon. Thanks for reading!
BTC price: $118k
BTC marketcap: $2.36T
BTC dominance: 60.2%
Total cryptos on coin marketcap: 18.7M
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