If you are a regular reader here, this post will mostly be stuff we've covered before. I've been working on my Aliens post for a while now but it has been a little more challenging than I anticipated. There are just so many different avenues to go down and things to explore. I don't even know if anyone is really looking forward to it or anything but I will have it out at some point in the near future. I might even make it a multi-post kind of thing but we'll see. I've been skimming some of my old alien books and will probably make it part book review.
But with the NFL preseason underway, I thought it would be a good idea to touch on some +EV strategies for betting on the NFL in 2025. Also, some things that work specifically in the preseason. This will be a bit of a basic bitch post, but if you're relatively new to +EV sports betting, you'll find some nuggets in here. And if you are a grizzled veteran and a regular reader here, this might be a good post to link to to get noobs on board. If you're like me and truly believe in things like Bitcoin, free markets, the evils of central banking, inflation, and The Fed, the evils of our ruling class barely hiding the fact that they're bug-eyed lizard people who fuck children and openly despise us, then getting this blog out there is a good thing. It costs nothing, no ads, no 'premium membership' to unlock full posts, no substack asking for money...nothing but thoughts, uncensored and for free. Old school internet. So maybe use this post to link to and send out. The more people on our side, the better. Here is my X account @poogsBLOG that I only use for when I have a new post for a reminder.
Ok. So. The 2025/2026 NFL season is upon us. As you may or may not know, I was a pro sports bettor for a while a little bit ago and still do bet for profit, just not professionally anymore. I still get high six figures in volume down a year, I have never had a losing year betting sports in my life and NFL has typically been my best overall sport. So I think I still very much have some insight to offer in this space. Let us start with some basics, delve into the preseason specifically and go from there.
The best and surest way to make money in the NFL and in any sport, really, is to attack the smaller markets, especially if you're starting out on your +EV journey. The smaller the limits, the better. If your typical bet/unit size is in or under the $300-$500 range, you will be much better off betting in markets where that is a max bet or close to it. Most people I know bet something like a hundred bucks a play in markets where one could get down $50k if they wanted. That isn't a great strategy. If a market is big, mature, and efficient enough to take a $50k bet, almost by definition, you are not going to beat it if your unit size is less than four or five hundred bucks. That doesn't mean it's impossible, but if you don't know exactly what your edge is, how to calculate it and why you have said edge, you don't have one.
You generally want to be close to the limits for your bet size. So if you usually bet one or two hundred bucks max, you should be looking at bets and markets where that is considered a big bet. What markets fall into that category? Props and derivatives, of course. A derivative is any market that is based on, or derived from the main spread and total. Things like half time lines, team totals, live bets (although live betting is its own animal entirely), game props like sacks or total field goals, or any kind of exotic bet. The reason these lower limit bets/markets are more attractive is that because they have such small limits, the guys at the upper end of the food chain don't even bother with them. And because the high limit sharps don't bet them, they can be wildly off from their true probabilities, all the way until game time. You are not going to know something about an NFL matchup that the guys who bet and re-bet $50k a pop don't know. You might, however, be able to find an edge on a team total or a game or player prop in a market where the big boys don't even bother to look.
Let's look at some of those markets. First, you have props. They came in two basic forms; player props and game props. I made a living for nearly a decade betting in these kinds of markets so I would consider myself pretty close to an expert in the field. With DFS being in the mainstream now, some might say the party is over in the player prop markets. From like 2010 to about 2018, most people had no idea what a player prop even was. They were soft as baby poop. They have gotten considerably sharper since DFS came about, but there are also a lot more options these days. Things like prop builder, live props, the ability to parlay props and the fact that a lot of books will put up lines on just about every player for every stat you can think of, are all new-ish things that offer plenty of low limit +EV. So it's a bit of a double edged sword.
Player props are growing in popularity but due to their low limits, they will probably always be fairly soft. But one thing the DFS crowd has largely overlooked is game props. How many sacks will each team get, how many field goals, total first downs, total rushing/passing yards, the longest or shortest field goal, the total TD's in the game, etc. The more obscure, the lower the limit, the more likely it is to be ignored by bettors with large bankrolls, and therefore more likely to be +EV. And don't worry about not being able to get enough money down. That isn't something you need to worry about until it happens, and when/if it does happen, with a little bit of hustle, accounts will find you. With two sports books you basically double your limit right there. I was bashing these teeny markets for the better part of a decade and not being able to get enough money down wasn't even on my top 10 list of problems. Well, not in the top 5 anyway for sure. Don't forget, for each game you have literally hundreds of prop/derivative options. So the limits on each bet might be small but overall you can get plenty of money down. So, again, look for the absolute smallest, most obscure markets and work your way up from there.
Another two derivatives to always look at are team totals and alt-lines. These are purely based on the main spread and total and if you try, you can easily find books that mis-price these and/or are slow to move them when the main spread and total move. With access to at least a few accounts, you can often find juicy middles on team totals, full game and first half (and even quarter team total lines can be found these days). These are great because it takes no handicapping at all and you can fly through them. Look for key numbers in the NFL like 17, 21, 24, 28 for full game to middle, and 7, 10, 13, 14 and 17 for first half. One of the very first team total middles I ever hit was on a college football game of over 13.5 -110 and under 14.5 -110, maxed out on both sides which was a big bet for me at the time. It landed on 14 and for whatever reason, I'll always remember it. Hitting clean middles is one of the best feelings in betting. A great thing about middles is that since you can't possibly lose both, you can max bet them and give yourself a nice chunky payout. Don't be afraid of half middles too, something like over 9.5 -110 and under 10 -110 for first half team totals would be profitable. It's hard to know exactly where to draw that line though. For instance, would over 9.5 -130 and under 10 -120 be profitable? Probably not but it's close. You don't want to be drowning in juice but you also only need to hit these a small percentage of the time to be +EV. If you can work some kind of odds boost or percentage off losses into the equation, then you're really cooking.
Now, for the preseason in particular, there are some specific things to keep in mind and be on the lookout for. First, let's discuss the nature of the preseason. How is it different than the regular season? For one, the betting limits are a lot smaller. Why? There is more uncertainty about who will play and for how long, as well as how much each team/coach even cares about winning, so with some work, you can find edges that way. You'd be surprised at how much value you can find in certain coaches interviews leading up to a preseason game.
Another major difference between pre and regular season NFL is the lower totals. Totals in preseason are generally a good ten or so points less than the regular season, or roughly 20% lower. That's a big difference. With less points being scored, that means each point is worth a little bit more. How can we take advantage of that? Through teasers, mostly. With teasers, you're paying to move the spread and capture the points in between the regular spread and what you get for the teaser. For example, if you do a 6 point Wong teaser from +1.5 to +7.5, you're capturing the 2 through 7. Since there will be less points scored overall, the value of capturing those 2-7 points should be higher than normal. The same logic applies to buying and selling points, but only do that if you know what a push rate chart is. If not, give it a google. (An important point regarding teasers I have mentioned on here probably 3 times already but I consider it that important: understand the odds you're getting with teasers. With two team, 6 point teasers, never pay more than -120. You really shouldn't pay more than -110 but those are actually kind of hard to find these days. I mean, not really, but if you're a true noob with no PPH access, you might have to settle for -120. +180 for three team, 6 point teasers is great. +170 is ok and anything less than that I would not bet unless the line is way off. If you are going to bet teasers for any kind of money, it's worth it to find a book that offers at least -110 for two teamers and/or +170 for three teamers). Lots of books now offer all kinds of different teasers, like 10 or 7 pointers. These are sometimes worth playing if the juice isn't bad and you can capture a key point, usually with the main spread being a little bit off. You can get all kinds of creative with teasers, hedges, middles and alt-spreads but I've discussed this before.
There are a few upcoming preseason games that look great for teasers right now. New Orleans is +1 -115 on Pinnacle right now with a total of 40. If you can find a +1.5, that would be a great leg of a 6 point teaser. Same with Chicago at +1 -111 and a total of 40. Dallas at +1 -103 with a total of 37 is great too. In general, these kinds of spots are about as good as you can do with Wong teasers. Something where the market has a team at +1 with a total in the low 40's or lower. You find a +1.5 and tease it up to 7.5. Same thing the other way, if you can find a team where the market is -9 or -9.5, look for a -8.5 and tease it down to -2.5. Now, one important caveat here, especially in the preseason; be on the lookout for teams that like to go for two. Going for two is kind of a new school, analytics type move that is gaining a little bit of traction in the NFL. This makes key numbers a little bit less key and is obviously bad for Wong teasers. There's this new thing now in the NFL where when a team is down by exactly 14 points and score a TD, they'll go for two instead of kicking the extra point. I remember the Lions did that last year in the playoffs. That's pretty devastating for Wong's so something to keep in mind.
With a new NFL season upcoming and with the NFL being the most popular sport to bet on, now would be a good time to make some sort of sheet or system to keep track of your results if you don't already. I've always said that keeping track of at least your money won/lost every week is a must if you're at all trying to make money betting. Now is also a good time to look for and get more accounts. Either regular, legal books like Draft Kings and Fanduel, or offshore books, or PPH's. Ideally, all three. Don't be afraid to e-mail books and ask for deposit bonuses or anything else. Worst they can say is no. (Digression time: back in the day when I was playing on Full Tilt Poker, they announced they were giving rakeback deals to new customers only. I sent them an e-mail saying that I was a loyal customer for years and I didn't think it was fair that a new customer should get a rakeback deal and not me. And they gave me rakeback! Forever. My poker playing friends couldn't believe it. Don't be afraid to send e-mails like that).
If you do get a new PPH account in the next couple weeks, a good strategy would be to do a bunch of Wong teasers and any other breakeven or slight +EV, noob looking bets. If you win, great, you made some money. If you lose, pay your guy in full with no problems and ask for a rebate. Something like 10-20% off of weekly losses. You might need a bad two or three week run to get it, but any kind of rebate like that is a goldmine that you can lock into for the whole NFL season, or at least as long as he keeps you.
Lastly, changing gears a little bit, I have read two new sports betting books recently. 'Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Bettor' by, Elihu Feustel (Justin7 who we've talked about before) and 'But How Much Did You Lose; How To Win More At Sports Betting By Losing Less' by Dan Abrams. (By the way, is that not the single worst title of a sports betting book you have ever seen?? I actually hid this book while I was reading it I thought it was so embarrassing). And boy were they both duds. Two of the least interesting books on betting I've ever read. Maybe it's me but the last three books on betting I've read have been absolute slogs. The one by Elihu has some kind of online worksheet 'answer key' thing attached which is the same thing that the last book I read had. The one by Andrew Mack that I threw on the ground while reading. And can I just say right now to sports betting book authors; please stop doing that. I don't want an online companion to a book. I have no idea if I'm in the minority here with this opinion, but I can't stand it. I just finished it and I honestly cannot tell you one single nugget or idea I got from the book. And the 'how much did you lose book' was basically one idea, over and over. That hedging is actually good and EG is more important than EV. Something I agree with and have understood for a while so it's not like I didn't like the book because I disagree with it. Lots of mind numbing, multi-page math formulas to show exactly how much you should hedge given your bankroll, edge, and the size of the original bet. Just the same thing, over and over again. He actually says in it 'the most important aspect in betting is figuring out how much to bet.' It is?? I always thought finding and maintaining edges/new accounts was far more important. And just to show I'm not being a sourpuss, here is a positive review of the book by OG +EV bettor/author Joseph Buchdahl, the author of "Fixed Odds Sportsbetting", another book I got nothing out of.
That's it for today. Probably some more sports betting posts coming up with the NFL starting and the Aliens post will be up soon. Talk soon, bye for now!
BTC price: $117k
BTC marketcap: $2.33T
BTC dominance (including stables): 59%
Total crypto marketcap: $3.95T
Total cryptos on coinmarketcap: 19.55M
No comments:
Post a Comment