NFL Playoffs

Another short little post here, just wanted to touch base about betting on the NFL in the playoffs and maybe give a nugget or two.

First off, I hope you all cashed in on my correlated parlay nugget from my last post. The Bengals won that week 18 game I was talking about (but didn't cover -2.5 by a half point! Hence why I said to do the money line and why line shopping is so important) and the Chargers went from -4.5 to -7 and even -7.5 at some places after the Bengals win. So you could have rode naked on it and been happy, or middled it with Raiders +7 -105ish or +7.5 -115ish. Or you could have taken Raiders +4.5 at about +130 for a little bit for the nice scalp/arb. My initial bet was bigger than I wanted as I did plan on hedging at least a little bit and that is what I did. I took a little bit of Raiders +7, got a nibble at +7.5 and took a little bit +4.5 +130. I had way more exposure to the Chargers though who won and covered easily. The Raiders ALMOST pushed on +7 too which would have been sick.

This past weekend was a great one for Wong Teasers. Buffalo was in Wong range most of the week and somehow closed at -7.5 (there was a LOT of late money coming in on Denver for some reason). Draftkings actually put the Ravens at -8.5, who were 9/9.5 everywhere else, for a little while yesterday and I put them into a few teasers. 

I've mentioned it before, but DK's teaser odds are generally bad. -120 for two teamers, +160 for three teamers and +260 for four teamers. What you really want is -110 for two teamers, +180 for three teamers and +300 for 4 teamers (or better, obviously). You used to be able to find those odds (or even better sometimes) just about everywhere a few years ago. But the public slowly, very slowly seems to be finding out about these so we've seen the odds get worse and worst over time, very gradually. If you're paying the DK odds, or worse, and not playing Wong teasers absolutely perfectly, you're going to torch money. However, there are some spots that come up where they can be +EV. The example from the Ravens game yesterday is a good one. Generally, it's where DK has a team a half point or a full point off from market, putting them in Wong range. They actually have one up right now. They have the Bills at +1.5 -120 where most of the market is at a pk. Pinnacle is actually at +1 -109 now, so it isn't as great as when they were -1 +102 this morning, but still a good leg. It's the Sunday Night game too, so you can put it as the last leg in your teasers and then go for a nice chunky middle, scalp some or all of it out, or just let it ride. Either way, you should have some attractive options.

Speaking of Wong Teasers, every single NFL game with a line right now is Wongable if you look hard enough and have a little bit of creativity. Right off the bat we have a nice one tonight with the Rams being +2.5. I jumped on this one early last week when I found a +1.5 when everyone else was at pk or +1. But then the game got moved to Arizona due to the fires, so the line went to +2/2.5. I put this one in as the last leg in a lot of my teasers from last week, so I have a big position of LAR +8.5 and +7.5 tonight. I'm scalping out of some of it with Min -2.5, -4.5, -7.5, and a little bit of -9.5, but still exposed for a good chunk on LAR.

Next up is Washington/Detriot. This opened at Det -8.5 -105 and is currently Det -8.5 -113 on Pinnacle. Just about everyone else has -9 or -9.5. If you can find a -8.5, I highly suggest putting it in some Wong teasers. I whacked Draftkings on it pretty good this morning and they moved to -9.5 right after. (When that happens, I will usually take the other team at +10.5 for at least part of my hedge, buying through the 10 which is generally worth it at 10 cents per half point.) It's hard/impossible to predict NFL line moves, but I would imagine that this line will not go any lower than 8.5. So my plan is to get in at -2.5 with Wong teasers and take nibbles on Washington throughout the week at +9, +10.5, +7.5 reduced juice, and the money line. I think the best time to bet Washington though will be right before kickoff. I was listening to a good podcast this morning and they were talking about Washington this year and how 'lucky' they've been. They have run very hot on converting 3rd and 4th downs, and have scored an unsustainable chunk of their points on drives where they've converted a 4th down. Not something I'd exactly take to the bank but worth considering. With the high total, this is a spot where I'll take nibbles on +9 and +10.5 etc like I said above, but will probably bet Washington ML and +3 as my hedge instead of going for the big middle.

The Saturday night game is Hou at KC. KC is -7.5 and feels like a 'licking my chops' kind of teaser. The Chiefs are kings of winning-but-not-covering this year and this game has a nice low total (41.5). The expected/implied score is KC: 24.5 HOU: 17 which is both under their average points scored per game. Lower scoring generally means less variance, so I love the play of teasing KC down to -1.5 and hedging with Hou +7.5 or even better if this line moves to 8 or 9. This definitely one where I'm not waiting though and firing on them today. I cannot imagine this line goes down or crosses the 7. Another one where I think the best time to bet Hou will be close to game time.

Finally, we have Baltimore at Buffalo. I already went over this game above, but definitely look for any Bills +1.5 and consider Wonging them up to 7.5. The great thing about the playoffs in particular when it comes to Wongs is that all the games are on at different times. So this makes middling/arbing a lot easier and way more clear. 

I dusted off my NFL player prop models for a couple games yesterday and even though I lost a few units overall, I felt like I was finding a lot of decent spots on Draftkings. They have more than a few unique markets which seem exploitable. I'm going to dive into them right after I make this post and if I find a couple really good props I'll post them here. So check back later today if you're interested. No promises though.

That's it for today. I have two really big posts still cooking so make sure to check back soon if you're into that sort of thing. And don't forget to follow me on X for updates @POOGSblog. Bye for now!

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