Just one game left in the 2024/2025 NFL Season: The Super Bowl. Today I'm going to post some prop openers that Draft Kings put up this morning. It'll be fun and quite interesting to track these and see how they move during the next two weeks. I will definitely be betting props for this Super Bowl and will post some of my favorite plays here in the run up to the game. Big time, one-off events like this are gold mines for prop bettors and just about everyone involved in sports betting should be looking to get down some money somewhere in this game. If you're a noob or a low level bettor, you really should be licking your chops. Books tend to lose their minds a little bit for the Super Bowl and will put up all kinds of original, in-house markets where the price gets set by literally like one or two guys. My all time favorite market to bet on is cross-sport props so be on the lookout for some of those plays posted here (for free, as always of course). Cross sport props and unique low limit stuff are the low hanging fruit of the sports betting market. So unless your bankroll is so big that $500 and $1k max markets are way below your pay-grade, if you call yourself an advantage gambler (or even an aspiring one), this should be a busy two weeks for you.
For me personally, in the next few days I will be really updating my NFL models. The first step is to get all the league averages dialed in, taking into account the most recent playoff games. I'll probably weigh early games as less important as the most recent ones when coming up with averages. Double checking everything in the model since I didn't use it a ton this year. I'll be consuming as much useable content as possible, using Youtube and DFS articles and channels. Try to get as familiar with each team as possible. I will also track all the major markets and see how they move. This year is a little different than normal for me as I didn't do much prop work at all this season. But the Super Bowl is too whacky and potentially profitable to sit out prop-wise, even though my prop edge has largely diminished. I doubt I'll have nearly the amount of volume in play as I have in the past, but I will for sure get a decent amount down. This time next week is when I'll probably start to price everyone and start sprinkling in some bets. The majority of my bets will probably go in on Saturday and Sunday though, as I usually have a lot of Unders and No's, and those prices will probably be best as close to game time as possible. If I see any glaring Overs or Yes's on anything I will probably look to get those in early in the week.
OK so on to the prop openers. The following bets are all from Draft Kings and are from this morning (Monday Jan 27th). Again, these will be very interesting to follow and I will update them as close to game time as possible to see where and how they moved. If anything moves big during the week I will try to update that as well.
QB's: (If I don't put down any juice assume it's roughly even for both sides)
Completions / Attempts / Yards / Passing TD's / INT / Pass+rush yards
Mahomes:
23.5 -120 over / 35.5 -121 over / 252.5 / 1.5 -188 over / .5 -117 under / 287.5
Hurts:
17.5 / 26.5 / 210.5 / 1.5 -179 under / .5 -160 under / 257.5
Receivers:
Receptions / Yards
AJ Brown: 5.5 -143u / 71.5
T Kelce: 6.5 -135u / 64.5
Worthy: 5.5 -140u / 57.5
D Smith: 4.5 -138u / 50.5
D Goedert: 4.5 -141u / 46.5
M Brown: 3.5 -135 over / 42.5
Hopkins: 1.5 -147 over / 17.5
S Barkley: 2.5 -160 over / 14.5
Juju: 1.5 -119u / 13.5
N Gray: 1.5 -117u / 12.5
Hunt: 1.5 -144u / 7.5
Perine: 1.5 -225u / 6.5
Pacheco: 1.5 -211u / 5.5
Draft Kings does a weird thing with yes/no on 'will this player score a TD?' They have one sided "yes" on all players to score a TD, score the first TD, and score 2 or more TD's. I hope that if you're reading this blog, you know that one way markets are almost always terrible and you should almost never bet into them. I actually have found value on the "yes" for anytime TD's in some spots, but by and large, markets like these should be avoided. (If you don't know what I mean by one way market, it simply means that you can only bet on side, the 'yes' in this example. Markets like these are generally terrible because they can put up any number they want without having to worry about anyone taking the other side).
However, they also do this thing where they put two or sometimes three players together and offer normal 'yes/no' on will either of them score a TD. I have found some good value in this market.
Some quick ones:
Barkley and Hurts: Yes -650 / No +425
Barkley and AJ Brown: -450 / +310
Hurts and Kelce: -260 / +195
Kelce and Worthy: -250 / +155
Hurts and Mahomes: -180 / +135
D Smith and Kelce: -145 / +110
Some random ones:
PAT made:
Elliot: 2.5 -112 over
Butker: 2.5 -115 under
Kicking points:
Elliot: 6.5 -132 over
Butker: 7.5 -124 over
KC total first downs: 19.5 -145 over
PHI total first downs: 20.5 -130 over
Total first downs: 40.5 -150 over
Total players to have a passing attempt: 2.5 -270 under
Obviously I could go on and on but those are the major ones, for me at least. I'll make at least one more post here before the game (probably more than that) and I'll update those bets to see how they moved.
Finally, changing gears here, one quick econ lesson. This is a very basic premise that goes back to Milton Friedman. It's very simple but the first time I heard it, it was very eye opening for me and maybe it will be for you too.
There are only four possible ways to spend money. First, you can spend your own money on yourself. You will care about price and quality. Second, you can spend your own money on someone else. You'll care about the price but won't care as much about the quality. Third, you can spend someone else's money on yourself. You won't care about price, but you will care about the quality. Fourth, you can spend someone else's money on someone else. You won't care about price or quality. And what does the government do? What is the ONLY thing they can do? The last one. Spending other peoples money on other people. It will ALWAYS be inefficient, at best. Just a neat quick little lesson that always stuck with me.
That's it for today but be sure to check back soon as I will for sure have a post or two in the next couple weeks. Also, don't forget to follow me on X for updates on new posts @poogsBLOG. Bye for now!
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