Super Bowl Sunday!

Well the big day is here! I'm up against it a little bit with time on the computer, a full house and 7 inches of snow on my driveway so I'm just going to post a few of my favorite plays so far and a couple other small things.

First off, for the props I posted last week, you can pretty easily see how they moved yourself on Draft Kings, even if you don't have an account. At a glance, they seemed to mostly have drifted towards overs which was expected. Juju got his receptions bet up quite a bit which is interesting. The QB markets didn't seem to move a ton, although Hurts completions and attempts got bet up a good amount. Both QB's had their passing TD's bet down a little bit.

Overall though, my prop action for this game is not nearly as big as it used to be. I can only play props at Draft Kings now, plus my confidence in them is fairly low as we've discussed on here many times. Sadly, DK doesn't have cross sport props either which is a real bummer. I really used to absolutely crush those. I didn't see a whole lot of Novelty/Fun props in general this year. 

The game line was oddly steady for the whole two weeks leading up to today. On Pinnacle, KC opened at -1 -109, got as high as -1.5 -115, and is currently at -1 -101. The KC moneyline opened at -117, got as high as -132, and is now at -110. The total opened at 49.5 and is now at 48.5 -110 on the under. So really not too much movement at all.

Just basing it on market-handicapping, it seems that the sharp money is on Phi and the public is on KC. Phi is the far superior team on paper but KC and Mahomes have the God-mode factor in their favor. My last standing PPH account put up +125 for Phi money line all week so I obviously maxed that out and have been slowly scalping it out all week. I'm glad I didn't jump all in on KC -122 when it opened. I put Phi ML in a lot of parlays the past two weeks (which my agent was not thrilled about but this feels like the last week I'm going to have this account anyway) so I have a lot on Phi money line. I've slowly been scalping it out all the way from KC -122 down to -109 today. So I have a really nice position on the game tonight. I win money no matter who wins, but if Phi wins I do a lot better.

OK so on the props. Again, I don't have near the confidence in my prop edge that I used to and I am very clearly not selling you anything here or giving you advice or anything. But even though my prop edge is largely gone, the Super Bowl is a whole different ball game. The numbers get whacked around by the public enough to make them pretty clearly +EV, even if you don't love your model. Anyway, here are some of my favorite bets so far:

Mahomes under 1.5 passing TD +137

Hurts under .5 INT -141

Mahomes under 253.5 passing yards -112

Phi under 1.5 4th down conversions -130

Phi more first downs +100

KC under 19.5 first downs +120

Xavier Worthy u5.5 receptions -120

Juju Smith Schuster under 1.5 receptions +114

Little parlay: D Hopkins o1.5 receptions, over 12.5 yards +128

S Barkley over 13.5 rec yards -117

Then I have tons of NO on players to score TD's

Normally I'd have a lot of NO's on Overtime, two point conversions, safety's, etc. But like I said, I am very up against it with places to play and raw powder to fire with. I have yet to really price the running backs either, which I will probably get into here soon. So check back before the game starts in case I find something I really like.

That's it for now. Good luck tonight and if I don't make another post today, check back early next week as I have an NFL season wrap up post cooking.