Quick little post to wrap up the Super Bowl and the 2024/2025 NFL season. I will have a meaty post coming up soon dealing with Elon Musk, DODGE, Trump and everything else. What has been going on the past couple weeks in politics has been breath-taking. It's astonishing. I couldn't love it anymore if I tried. I've been trying to consume some left-wing, Democratic content lately to see what their argument even is and I will have all that and a lot more soon.
But today let's put a bow on the NFL season, tally up the bets I posted and talk some sports betting.
First things first, the bets I posted:
Mahomes under 1.5 passing TD +137 L
Hurts under .5 INT -141 L
Mahomes under 253.5 passing yards -112 L
Phi under 1.5 4th down conversions -130 W
Phi more first downs +100 W
KC under 19.5 first downs +120 W
Xavier Worthy u5.5 receptions -120 L
Juju Smith Schuster under 1.5 receptions +114 L
Little parlay: D Hopkins o1.5 receptions, over 12.5 yards +128 W
S Barkley over 13.5 rec yards -117 W
Then I have tons of NO on players to score TD's
5-5, -.25 units.
That was only a small fraction of my total prop action but all in all I profited about 2 units on props, which was pretty disappointing. The garbage time production by Mahomes and KC at the end of the game turned what would have been a really good prop SB into just an okay one. I was showing huge edges in all the first down, 3rd and 4th down conversion markets which all went my way, but I didn't quite get enough down. Most of my NO's on Player X to score a TD won too. I'm noticing that I seem to do a lot better on Game props as opposed to Player props so that may be something I lean on heavier next year. I have always felt more confident in my modeling of game props over player props in all sports anyway.
I also am slowly changing my prop betting philosophy. I have always lived and died by the Justin7 motto of 'do a lot of props, quickly'. My prop action has always been TONS of bets, most of which have small edges. But now with the market getting harder to beat and having so few places to play, I've been leaning more towards less bets but more money down per bet, bigger edges per bet, and more time spent really zeroing in on a market/bet. For instance, in the bets above, I really did my homework on all the first down and 4th down conversion stuff and saw a few bets with huge edges, namely that under 1.5 4th down conversions for PHI (-130) and PHI more 1st downs (-100). So maybe next year I can give out one play a week or something that I really have confidence in and see how that goes.
Like I mentioned in my last post, I got down at +125 for PHI money line early in the week and spent the full two weeks slowly arbing it out as the price on KC came down all week. I ended up with a position of winning 4ish units if KC won and 20ish units if PHI won, which obviously worked out well for me.
Overall, it was a decent year of NFL betting for me. Teasers absolutely crushed. Straight bets and team totals I did fine on, props I made a small profit. I lost a little bit Live betting which I take as a personal challenge for next year. I lost one of my all time favorite, last man standing PPH account this year, which sucks. This was the account that let me buy through the NFL 7 for 10 cents per half point which was extraordinarily exploitable for years and years. I got kicked out of three books total this year which is about par for the course for me at this stage of my career.
Side note: I made my first withdrawal from Draft Kings this past week, just a portion of my balance. And the money was in my account less than 24 hours later. I have to say, I have been quite impressed by Draft Kings ever since I opened an account. I am obviously completely unaffiliated with them or anyone so don't think this is an ad or anything, but I really think they're a great book. And have you noticed their stock price? It's waaay up the past few months. In my 'overall sportsbook handle' post a while ago, I mentioned that I thought DK was a good stock to buy or at least keep an eye on. My reasoning being simply that old school Las Vegas, brick and mortar sports books were able to make a good sized profit with 5% handles operating in one city. DK's handle is closer to 10% (and rising), they're strictly online and they can service half the country (and rising). So I would think that they can net at the very least whatever the old school LV books did, and possibly quite a bit more.
That's it for now but check back soon. I have a doozy cooking, I promise!
BTC price: $98.5k
BTC marketcap: $1.95T
Overall crypto marketcap: $3.27T
BTC dominance: 59.6%
Total cryptos on coin market cap: 11.35M
No comments:
Post a Comment