I wrote a Week 6 recap last week but never published it. I planned on adding more to it but just never did. And I'm sitting here trying to write my Week 7 recap but my heart just isn't in it. I think I'm only going to do these recaps if it was a particularly interesting betting week. I'll do a quick Week 7 recap here but I think this will be my last one unless, like I said, it's an interesting week.
I'll include the Week 6 recap at the bottom as well since I wrote it anyway.
So. Week 7. Finally a good week. I actually lost on Wongs again but more than made up for it elsewhere.
My biggest Wong/play of the day was with the Jets vs CAR game. As I said in the my Week 6 recap below, this felt like an absolutely perfect Wong-middle play. Two shitty teams, low total, a spread of PK through +2 Jets depending on where/when you bet. I got in early on the Jets at +7.5 and hedged big on CAR ML -113 and -2.5 +125ish. The game went just as expected, super low scoring, super low variance and it ended up perfectly with CAR winning by 7. I even managed to middle the 7 during live betting. It feels great to have a game go exactly the way you predict and bet it that it would. It's rare but when it happens it's great.
I teased MIN up to 7.5 and hit the PHI ML hedge/middle.
IND won outright.
DEN won by exactly 1 which could have been a disaster if I went with the DEN -1.5, NYG hedge that I sometimes do.
GB won but didn't cover which was perfect.
The only real bummer was the SNF game. I had the stand alone ATL +8.5 leg in almost every teaser I made. I hedged out of most of it but if that game had stayed under 8, we'd be eating good this week.
Anyway, it was a good week. Up about 9 units to bring me to basically exactly break even for the NFL season so far. It feels like I'm on the upswing though.
Looking ahead, there are quite a few juicy looking possible Wongs coming up. ATL looks good, CAR maybe, PHI looks decent. Perhaps a PATS/CLE Wong/ML hedge. But the best one on the board right now is SF +2 against HOU. Super low total, neither offense is explosive at all. I put SF +7.5 as the 3rd leg of a couple teasers from last week that are still pending and I will be slowly adding more and more all week. My 3 best looking Wongs as of today, in order are: SF, ATL, and PHI. None of them really need to be pounced on quite yet though. If I start seeing some +1.5s on SF I will and if the other two drift into -8 I will too. But I'll be mostly waiting and watching these over the next few days.
Switching topics to crypto, we had ourselves a good ol' fashioned FLASH CRASH last week where everything except The King dumped like 50% or more. It was really bizarre. I managed to scoop up like 5 LINKS for $10 per LINK. I also managed to sell exactly one LTC for $125 and bought it back for $83 in the same day which is always nice. I had 8 orders rejected during the crash. I'm a bit light on dry powder for the moment which sucked. I was trying to scoop up as much cheap LINK (LINK crashed the hardest that I saw) and LTC as possible but between getting all my orders rejected and not having a ton of cash on hand, it was a bit of a missed opportunity. Good lesson though. These markets are still fairly new and weird shit happens from time to time. Got to be able to capitalize.
I'm steadfast in my BTC prediction that I've had for the past 6 months or so now. I still think we have one more big run up to go. I think $150k is going to be the top and I think we see it before the end of the year. I think ETH is going above $5k, too. My futures positions are mostly all underwater now which sucks. I was definitely too cocky with these too early. This is the only way I really learn stuff though. I think with futures, it's good to have small positions and to be ready to pounce when there's a big change. I still think they're going to make money when all is said and done, but I for sure could have gotten better prices on most of them. Futures trading feels like the next big thing though and something I will be keeping an eye on at the very least.
I'll post my Week 6 recap below for anyone interested but that's about it for me today. I have a couple ideas for a new post up soon, something longer form. There's a company that has been quietly releasing something like 'earnings reports' for BTC every quarter that I think is interesting. I've been reading some new books I'd like to discuss, lots of alien news and some political topics I've been following. So be on the lookout, don't forget to follow me on X @poogsBLOG for updates and check back soon. Bye for now!
*WEEK 6 BETTING RECAP*
Week 6 is in the books and we are officially a third of the way through the season. Feels like preseason was just last week but here we are. It was another lackluster week for me and Wong teasers. Let us take a quick look back and then a look ahead.
The first game of the week was the Thursday night game with PHI at NYG. PHI was mostly -7, steaming to -7.5 closer to game time so it wasn't a slam dunk leg. I did go kind of big on it tough looking back, but that was because I was able to get a good price on NYG ML. So I went for the free money/heart attack arb (if PHI won by exactly 1 I'd have been shut out completely). I left some risk on PHI so it was a small loser. Never a good sign when the first stand alone Wong game of the week loses. It's a bad omen.
I got a great number on the Jets (+7.5 -120 which was a two cent-arb with Pinny at the time) which won, however I gave back a chunk of profits live betting DEN for some reason.
For the 1:00 o'clock slate, I got in early on IND at -5.5 which closed at -8.5 yet lost. I had JAX +7.5 in a bunch of teasers and they got within 8 and went for two for some reason. Stuff like this always terrifies me with regards to Wongs. Something to keep in mind going forward with JAX and other teams that do shit like that.
I did a 'through the zero' teaser with PATS and TB, making them both go from -3 to +3.5 which won. I got great numbers on CAR and CIN which won. The Sunday Night game was a good leg for DET up to +8.5 which did not cover. All in all, I was up slightly minus live betting. Ended the week down about 1.5 units. Pretty mediocre week, all around. I got crushed on Wongs but mostly evened things out with straights. I don't have any official stats but it feels like Wongs have been getting mostly crushed so far this year. I know I'm down on teasers. I still very much think they're profitable (and maybe even due?) but there have been quite a few changes in the league over the past couple years, rule-wise and just the way teams play. Going for two more often is a Wong killer so definitely something to at least keep an eye on.
Looking ahead, there are a couple Wongs I'm jumping on early. The biggest one is the Jets *low, daunting horror movie music start playing in the background* which is +1 -105 at Pinnacle but +1.5/+2 at most books. Fairly low total too of 41.5. They're at home against CAR, so that's two teams that will be thrilled to just get a win. Being able to get CAR at -113 on the ML or plus odds of -2.5 for the hedge/middle is great. I think I'll go for a really big middle on this one. So the Jets are a great leg to start building off of, slow at first and see how the week develops.
The only other possibilities in the 1:00 slate are the PATS at a heavy -7 and MIN at a light +1. I think the PATS are generally undervalued in the market overall. They were a DISASTER last year but have gone through a complete culture turn around with Vrabel and McDaniels and Maye taking a huge step forward. I think the market is slightly undervaluing how much of a disaster last year was with Jerod Mayo (the stories that have trickled out since he got fired have been humiliating for him. Notice you haven't heard a single WORD about Mayo since he got fired? Ain't no one looking to hire him. He was so unbelievably out of his depth as a head coach) and also how much of a boost Vrabel and McDaniels are. Anyway, that's a long way of saying that I think PATS at -7 -115 is a decent teaser leg, even though it isn't an official Wong yet.
And MIN +1 is a standard 'look for a +1.5 and tease it up to +7.5.' My book is a flat +1 so I'll be looking at that all week. Catching a foundering PHI team on the road, too.
The remaining possibilities are IND +1.5, DAL +1.5 and the big 'Sunday Night last leg of every single teaser of ATL +2.5.' The other possibility is maybe GB -6.5 teased down to -.5 if you can get a good number on ARZ ML (+280ish or better depending on your teaser odds) or maybe find a rouge +7 if you're lucky.
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