Another good week last week. Nothing crazy as I only netted a couple units for the week, but I rolled so many teasers and hedges over so that I have a massively juicy position on tonights game. I have SF -.5 to -1.5 as the last leg on just about every teaser I made, so I got myself basically SF money line at about 20 units to win 30. I'll scalp out most on CAR money line (at the somewhat enticing +320 at DK) and then some on CAR +7.5 and +3.5 at +170ish. My final position will be something like: I win 5 units if CAR wins outright, 12 units if SF win by 7 or more, 17 if they win by between 4-7, and 20 units if they win by 2 or 3. Even if SF wins by exactly one, I do fine as most of my teasers are SF -.5.
Let's take a quick look at how we got here, a little look ahead and then more on the missing plane video.
The first thing that sort of kicked off the betting week for me was my weekly $200 max bet, 25% NFL parlay promo that I've been getting from Draft Kings lately. As I said in my last post, the way I exploit these is a mix of using 4 games in different time slots (the time slot thing has been a great idea and I'm somewhat embarrassed I didn't think of it earlier on), finding off-market numbers (or as off-market as possible), and lastly, looking for teams I'll probably need action as hedges to teasers anyway. And I would consider those factors in that order. And you should be max betting the parlay too, assuming you're going to scalp/hedge at least some of it.
So I had the under in the Thursday night game, CIN +8.5, NO-1.5 and the under in the Monday Night game. The first under bet hit (for the first leg, I generally only scalp up to half of the original bet, if that. If I let anything ride naked, it'll be that very first bet. I can usually find a good enough number though that I do scalp usually about half of it). I was pumped the first leg hit because CIN +8.5 was a great number AND a hedge to my biggest position of the 1:00 slate by far: teasing the Patriots down to -.5 to -2.5. This was a play I was talking a lot about in my last post and I went pretty bananas with it. I had the PATS teased down to mostly -1.5 and scalped out most of it with the juicy +320 Draft Kings money line on CIN. I also had the CIN+8.5 parlay leg and took some CIN +7.5 game day (after scooping up a little bit of PATS -6.5 mid week when Burrow was rumored to play. I felt like there was no chance he played and almost put in a massive bet at PATS -6.5, planning on middling the 7 when the line went back to -7.5. However, the line somehow drifted down to -5.5. This made me re-think the play. Then it did go back to +7.5. If I really had balls, I would have gobbled up -5.5, getting the 6 covered, then middled it with +7.5 gameday like I planned on doing. That would have been awesome and I was close to it).
All in all, I managed to get myself basically a synthetic PATS money line of roughly 3 units to win 5 with a small CIN +8.5/7.5 middle. The only nightmare scenario was PATS winning by exactly 1. I planned on covering that live betting if there were any odds scores, but it never looked like a remote possibility. (The only thing that scares me though with doing these is when the dog is losing by exactly 7 late in the game with the ball. I'm always scared they're going to score a TD and then go for 2 and miss instead trying to tie it with the XP. I'm sure that'll happen to me one day).
Anyway, the game landed pretty close to perfect with the PATS winning by 6. My teasers all won and my big parlay was still alive.
The 4:00 slate was a little tough to find good legs. One of them I used was JAX, going from -2.5 to +3.5 in one of my 6.5 point 'through the zero' teasers. With the PATS winning and the teaser still being alive, that meant I had to get some ARZ exposure. They were a solid +2 at kickoff, so I put them as the first leg in a few 2 and 3 team teasers and took a nibble of ARZ ML. JAX won by 3 so besides the small ARZ ML bet, everything here won.
The other 4:00 leg I used was ATL, teasing them up to +7.5. This worked out nicely as I had NO -1.5 as the 3rd leg of my big parlay. So I had a juicy middle of NO -1.5 at big plus odds and ATL +7.5 nearly even odds. I let that ride and did fine with ATL winning outright. But man oh man, if that big 6 point middle hit I would really considered myself to have walked on water.
The other 4:00 leg I used was teasing PHI -2.5 to +3.5 early in the week. I hedged that with DAL money line and could not believe I actually binked that middle. I scooped up a little bit live betting DAL money line at +500, too. Wasn't for a big amount though.
I made a cool 5 units live betting last week. That puts me solidly in the green for the year. Again, the middles I was able to get were close to absurd. Not as insane as two weeks ago but plenty of scalps and fat middles available. I middled the 3 on the JAX game a couple times which is where I made most of my profit.
I had LAR -.5 last night for a bunch which I hedged mostly out of with TB money line and some +7.5. LAR crushed so it was fine.
The big thing for the week though was the gigantic bet I created for myself on SF tonight. If SF wins by exactly 2 to 7, I will officially be running good.
I had a thought the other day that the way I bet these days: using specific teasers from specific sites, hunting for the best odds and combos, maximizing my edges with hedges, scalps and middles, having access to Pinnacles lines as the worst I can do. Maximizing promos, de-vigging lines and using parlay calculators, sometimes bonus hustling. It's fairly advanced. Not crazy advanced but to a lay-man it definitely is. It made me think, this, in some way, is what big time traders must do on Wall St. I hear them all the time talk about 'creating' things like 'synthetic shorts/longs' and playing with derivatives and shit like that. Even inventing derivative markets. The same way I create myself a 'synthetic money line' combining the right kind of teaser with the right odds with the right team with an opponent money line at a good-enough-number. With stocks, you have all kinds of different options and futures. I'm sure there's a way to do something similar to what I do in sports betting, where you use a bunch of money/credit to make all kinds of related and correlated bets, all ending up with the synthetic bet/exposure that you want. If anything, it's actually probably easier, considering the difference in 'house edges' in each industry. It's something I always think about when thinking about futures on Robinhood. I know there must be some way to do something like buy a ton of Bitcoin and then buy bearish options on it to lock up money no matter what, or at least get yourself far better odds/entrance prices. I'm sure it obviously isn't as easy as that though. Imagine how hard it would be to explain my Wong teaser/underdog money-line strategy to someone who didn't know the first thing about betting? It would be nearly impossible. So I bet there is a way with equities, it's just something that super insiders only know. I don't know, just something I always think about. I often wonder if any of those guys ever wonder the same thing about sports betting? Probably not considering the amount of money in play on Wall Street.
Anyway, looking ahead at the NFL lines, tonights game is still pretty juicy. Anytime you have a 7.5 favorite, you can get creative with teasers as any regular reader here knows by now. You can tease them down to -1.5 and just let it ride as a good +EV leg of a teaser. Or you can go bigger than you normally would on the teaser and scalp out what you don't want to have at risk on the opponent money line. Depending on your teaser odds, you need about +260 or better for this to be profitable. Car is +320 right now pretty widely available so this is an option. You get crushed though if the favorite wins by exactly 1, so, depending on your book and your risk tolerance, you might want to do a 6.5 point teaser to get yourself SF -.5, or basically SF money line. (My book has me do a 6 point teaser and lets me buy half points for way too cheap which is a fun exploit). Know your books rules on ties with teasers, too. Assume it's a loss on any push unless you for sure know different. You can also middle this teaser by betting the opponent on the spread of +7.5 or maybe an alt spread of +3.5. If you really want to cover that chance of getting scooped if the favorite wins by 1, sometimes you can scalp with the opponent +2.5 or +1.5 at big odds. The odds will usually be way worse than the money line though so this is almost never worth it.
GB looks like a decent leg to pair with SF. Same with BAL and then NYJ and then PATS. That's more than enough combos to start getting some exposure and see how the week develops. I love having SF teased down to -.5 and -1.5 tonight though with the CAR +7.5 and +3.5 hedge and ML scalp.
Switching gears to the missing plane video I talked about last post. I've done more digging and honestly, it's fucking insane. I am 99% convinced, at this point, that the two videos of flight MH370 being surrounded by orbs and then vanished into a portal is real. I think it is slam dunk proof of alien tech and I think the world is going to look back on the videos very, very differently in the future.
I went back and read my post and I was a little bit too all over the place. So I'm going to a very short and concise summation of everything so far.
So first, the plane goes missing. Months later, the first video (the black and white one taken by a satellite, NOT the thermal vision one) hits youtube, uploaded by a very small, random youtuber named 'RegicideAnon.' This guys channel had under 100 followers and only had a few small UFO videos on them. He does't claim to have made or taken the video and the source says 'confidential.' He posts the video and it gets very little attention.
A few weeks later, the second video hits youtube, also originally from RegicideAnon. This is the thermal vision video that was taken by a drone. This video has a ton more information in it and is really the smoking gun.
A scientist with a Youtube channel named Ashton Forbes has been the driving force behind everything. He made 2.5 hour video a couple months ago where he goes through literally every single detail, proving that these videos are real. Here is the video. He can be a bit hard to follow at times but overall this dude is doing an amazing job at getting this out there. And he is selling nothing. That's important to consider.
If you're interested in this stuff, I cannot possibly recommend you watch that video any harder. It is just point after point, proving beyond a reasonable doubt that these videos are of Flight MH370 and are real. With the ability to really dissect these videos that we have today, Forbes is able to show the tiny minute details on everything from the way the clouds move to the way they're shaded. The way certain things make a shadow and how some don't. The way the orbs behave. The way they all flatten out and then point at the plane at the very end. The way they actually descend on the middle of the plane in the very last frame. And how the plane is slightly colder and smaller in the very last frame of the video, right before it vanishes. The way that the portal was cold and not hot. The small fire on board the plane and how it behaved in thermal vision. I mean there are literally hundreds of points like this that Forbes makes in his video, and that is only one video of a bunch. He's almost posting too much evidence to be honest.
This situation reminds me of a story I read about years ago in Malcom Gladwells book 'Talking To Strangers'. He tells the story of a man whose name I forget who knew that Bernie Madoff was a fraud years before anyone else did. This guy, we'll call Mike, was a big hedge fund trader guy on Wall St., and his logic was pretty simple. He said that the guys who are trading in these top level, multi billion dollar markets on Wall St all pretty much know each other. They know who they're dealing with because there just isn't that many people trading in these specific markets that Madoff said he was trading in. Mike looked into Madoff, did some digging and found out he was just running an elaborate ponzi scheme. But this Mike guy wasn't a normal dude. He was a bit of a conspiracy guy, thought people were following him, etc. He worked on making a file on Madoff for, I believe, years. He had him dead to rights, pretty much.
And he tells Gladwell this story about how he put together this gigantic document proving that Madoff was a crook. He dresses up in a disguise complete with top hat, sunglasses and trench coat, puts the document in a suitcase, and goes to something like a press conference where a high ranking IRS official was speaking. He tried to covertly give the IRS guy the suitcase but couldn't get close to him. He said something like he tried to clandestinely give him the suitcase in a hallway but the guy didn't get it. He tried a similar handoff again but it never worked. He never ended up getting the document to anyone and it just died on the vine. Years and years go by and Madoff is finally exposed and this Mike guy was right the whole time. (Fun thing to always remember about Bernie Madoff: he never actually got caught. His kids, who worked with him, found out what he was doing and made him turn himself in. But the government never actually 'caught' him. Makes you wonder how many guys like him are still out there).
Anyway, Gladwell eventually asked him; "Mike, why didn't you just tell the IRS guy normally? Like, make a phone call and a meeting and hand him your evidence?" And Mike said he basically just didn't consider it. The only way he could think of to get this evidence out was to do it in this ridiculous spy novel way because that's just how his brain worked. It made me think of this MH370 plane/Ashton Forbes scenario. The same way the evidence for the biggest financial scam in the history of Wall Street was sitting in some random guys suitcase for years before he got caught is similar to the way that evidence for alien tech and aliens in general has been sitting on youtube, out in the open, for almost a decade now. And Ashton Forbes is so on top of it that he's almost too on top of it. Like I said in my alien post before, there is almost too much evidence of aliens at this point to where it starts to feel like a big mess.
So that's it for me today. I'll have more on this missing plane for sure. And I am telling you right now that you will be hearing about these two plane videos in the future. Remember where you heard about it first!
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