How To Make Money On The Super Bowl

 I've talked about this quite a bit on here before but I don't think I've ever made a post solely focusing on what and how to bet on The Super Bowl. So let's do a quick dive.

First off, to really get the full picture here, you need to zoom out and understand why the SB is such a different animal than literally any other sporting event on the planet. Let's look at it from the sports books view first.

You know that saying when someone is describing something huge in some field or industry. 'It's their super bowl!' Well this is THE Super Bowl for bookies, obviously. The amount of super square, public money that comes in on the SB is astounding. People who otherwise never make a bet in their lives will put money down on it. Normally public money means next to nothing to sports books. Think of public money like flys on a lion. Barely noticeable until there's a shit load of them. Then they're very noticeable. Sports books biggest season is NFL and they've ground out their 5 or 6% 11 or 12% hold for the year. (Some year end figures were just released which showed that online books had an over 12% hold in 2025. That is insane and will be something I'll discuss in the future). The last thing these books want to do is give it all back to the public in one game. Typically they'll be happy to take your action, let you all pile in on the wrong side, not move the line at all and go into the game with a good position. Over time they crush you doing this. But for the SB, the handle will be so high that even the biggest guys in town have to somewhat respect it. And the little guys? The mid and lower tier books? They really want even action and those are the places that will put up a +7 when everyone else is +6 or something similar. So the main takeaway here is that the SB is different than anything else and the incentives for sports books are different than normal. In general, they're not trying to accurately pick the game but rather just have balanced action. Again, very generally speaking here. Basically, it's what most people think sports books do anyway.

Another aspect to this is that books will be fighting over this public money. I think just about every PPH account I ever had introduced some sort of unique market for the SB. Draft Kings and Fan Duel have a ton of unique stuff up already. A lot of it is one way market trash with absurd house edges, but anything unique with a two way market is worth looking at. You have to realize here, with these kinds of small unique markets, you might be against one guy. One guy who works at the sports book might be in charge of making the cross sport or entertainment lines. How much time do you think gets put into those lines? Or the novelty/exotic section. They put up lines, put a $500 limit up and move on with their day. These kinds of new, unique, sort of odd looking markets are the low hanging fruit that you might hear people talking about. 

Now from the bettors side, how do things look? Who are all these square bettors and what are they betting on and why? This is pretty obvious if you know (or are) square bettors. They want action. They want to bet on their guy or their team to do something. To get a lot of catches, to score a TD, to get an INT, they want safeties and over time and lots of points. They want action.

So what happens when we put these two things together? A massive contingent of public bettors that the market has to respect, if only because of the sheer size? Plus brand new, completely unique, one week only markets? We get opportunities. 

The trick you want to pull here is to simply fade the action craving public. So what does that mean? We look for under's and no's, especially on star players. Any player that your mom might know. Think of a thrilling, high scoring, back and forth game. Now think of the exact opposite of that. What would have to happen for a boring game? Lots of 3 and outs, not a lot of passing, a lot of punts, a lot of no's and under's. 

You might think this is too obvious to actually work, and these days, to be honest, you could be right. But it's worked for me for almost 20 years now. I know there's a lot more focus on player props these days, but you could argue that that's a good thing for sharps. Now your bartender might fire on Darnold over 1.5 TD instead of just SEA -4.5 parlayed with the over.

There's another cute trick you can pull off in the SB specifically.

There are two bets that the public loves: the favorite on the spread, and the underdog money line. With the amount of public money that comes in on the SB, these two markets will almost always get pushed out of whack at least a couple books. If you really line-shop and have access to a good amount of books, you can almost always get a profitable middle going with the favorite money line and underdog with the points. The higher the spread, the better. 

There are all kinds of NFL moneyline/spread conversions online. Basically, what the money line should be on a game with a given spread, or vice versa. On game day, if you look for the very best lines, you should be able to find a mis-priced number on the favorite ML and dog with the points. I've probably had some version of this middle/position on every SB for the past 15 years. And obviously with all middles, you can't possibly lose both, so you can really unload if you want. And you don't have to have an even amount on both sides either. Say you find a really good number on the favorite money line and a break even or very slightly +EV number on the dog plus points. You could over bet on the money line and buy back some on the dog. So you have a position on the favorite winning but if they win and don't cover you really clean up. With this game being lined at 4.5/5, this is actually possible. Most Super Bowls usually have a spread under 3 or 3.5 which makes this middle hard to hit at all. But with it being 4.5, you have a roughly 15% chance of it hitting. You can't do this blindly, you should look into the conversion charts for a baseline, but it's a bread and butter sharp SB play.

There's a couple of bridge jumper bets that are almost always +EV for the SB, too. These aren't anything juicy and they won't make you rich, but they're usually worth betting if you have some dry powder left on game day. Specifically, NO on will there be a 2 point conversion (attempt and actual conversion), safety, over-time, or pick six. This is so widely known now that I've actually noticed these lines get sharper over the years, but they're usually worthing looking into. 

As far as the nuts and bolts, don't want until a couple hours before the game to start to do anything. You have over 10 days to do some work. Either opening new accounts or doing some capping work on your own. Remember, capping this stuff really isn't as hard as it seems and trying at all will put you ahead of most people. With player props you want to focus on averages and medians. Don't forget about medians. You need the stats for the average NFL defense and SEA and NE defenses. Think about how they differ from the average and by how much. The SB is the perfect event for the Justin7 style of 'do lots of props, quickly'. Also, you can absolutely get an edge on markets like the the length of the national anthem, too. There's a lot of small youtube channels out there that give out edges they don't even know they're giving out.

Betting props on the Super Bowl is kind of where I got started handicapping at all. If you aren't gonna cap any props for the Super Bowl, you ain't a capper at all. It really is a feeding frenzy and completely passing on it is just unthinkable to me. Plus it's fun! The whole world is in on it. 

Lastly, and this is for the fellow sharps out there and something I wish someone told me 15 years ago: don't be a know it all with your friends/squares. Over the next 10 days, you might have an inordinate amount of people talking about betting with you. Explaining their dreadful 5 leg parlay that they're probably paying over 30% juice for, or what they think will happen in the game. Maybe they're asking you for bets. Don't explain this shit to people who don't want to hear it and don't be a dick. I used to know this one kid that used to hound me for bets, especially on the SB. He was obnoxious and a sweaty little gnat, but plenty of other people are just making conversation or looking for you for one 'lock.' They aren't trying to 'exploit' you. I wish I was more graceful with these people when I was really in my hey-day of betting. (Although one thing I will say: stay away from giving out actual plays to complete betting n00bs. If it wins they'll be happy but if it loses they'll be apoplectic. "I thought you were like a professional or something?!" They don't understand that they have something like a 6% edge, not 90%. I've learned the hard way that this is just not worth it.) Once you have a few good years of betting/capping under your belt, you can start to feel like you've cracked the code and you can't even relate to what other people are saying about sports and betting. You hear them talk and just can't stop yourself from correcting or explaining something to them. 'Well Axtchually-ing' them. Don't be that guy. For 99% of the world, this is a silly, fun event that they're putting their yearly 50 dollar wager on. Don't correct them or explain anything to them. They don't want to hear any of it. Trust me. 

Lastly, as a little secret thank you to anyone who is a regular reader here, I'm going to give you some of my push chart results. If you know what this means you'll know how valuable this is.

This is from the past 4 seasons, 2022-2025.

Here are the most important numbers and their push percentages:

(Positive means home team won).

-3: 7.45%

+3: 7.36%

+7: 4.05%

-7: 3.96%

+6: 3.96%

+2: 3.22%

-1: 3.22%

Pretty interesting to see +6 so high and +2 and -1 at all. No 10's or 14s. Makes sense that I don't think I've ever hit a 10 middle in my life. I thought the 10 would be right under the 7s to be honest. And I think my screwball through the zero teasers are even better than I thought.

Contact me if you want the full report. Some guy at Sports Solutions was going to charge me $3k for this info, plus I had to sign something that I was only using it for (bold and all caps his) RECREATIONAL - NON COMMERCIAL PURPOSES ONLY. A bit steep if you ask me! We all know how to use google sheets now!

Finally, completely unrelated, I just finished a wicked good book. 'Tender Is The Flesh' by Agustina Bazterrica. It was written in Spanish in 2017 and translated into English in 2020. It's about the near future where animals get some virus deadly to humans and all have to be eradicated, so they legalize cannibalism. State sanctioned cannibalism and all the implications. I love horror movies and TV shows but I haven't delved too far into horror books. Boy was this one a fucking gut punch. Especially the very end. Go into it cold if you're going to read it. 

That's it for today. I will definitely have some Super Bowl plays up before next Sunday so check back soon. Bye for now! (By the way, you know how people always say 'stay safe' or 'be safe!' as a goodbye? Can you picture anyone from any other time period saying that? Can you imagine a hippie chick in the 60's saying 'stay safe!' as a goodbye? Or a 1980's Chad? Of course not. Just something I thought about recently. We are so godamn safe these days, aren't we?)

Prop Openers, Thoughts On The Super Bowl And A Potential BIG Injury

 I want to touch on a few things today. I know the ICE operations and the two people that got killed in MN are top of the news right now, and while I have plenty of thoughts on the matter, I thought we would take a little break from all that right now. I'll have a big post up eventually about what I see as the death of libertarianism and atheism that will encapsulate my thoughts on the issue at hand, for whatever they're worth. But for now I want to discuss the Super Bowl, a possible Poogs Scoops McGee under-reported injury, and a funny PPH anecdote.

First off, it's Super Bowl time. Two weeks out from the biggest yearly sporting event on the planet. If you are at all an advantage gambler, a sharp, or a regular bettor just trying to lose less and eventually, maybe, make some money betting, this should be a big 10 days. Most everyone knows this by now, but sports books absolutely lose their fucking minds for the Super Bowl. They all try new things, they almost all offer some sort of in-house prop market and most all of them offer my favorite market of all time: cross sport props. Even though I have largely hung up my prop betting uniform, the Super Bowl is always worth busting out the old models and putting them to use. You have to look deep into your sports books. Alt prop prices, 'novelty bets', anything with the word 'exotic' in it. These are the types of bets that you absolutely can handicap yourself and can make money on. Pretty easily, honestly. Sports books take in so much money for the Super Bowl and a lot of it is super square and unlike basically every other game during the year, this square money will be reflected in the market. And yes, the limits on these novelty bets are generally small, but you can usually get at least a couple hundred down on anything and there are so many of them. Plus you have two full weeks and what the fuck else are you doing anyway?

I'll have another post closer to the game with some of my bets and also how to bet on the SB specifically and what to look for. But for now, let's take a look at what Draft Kings opened with for a few of the bigger name prop bets. Seeing how these move throughout the week will give us some information on its own. (In general though, with props in the SB, you want to be mostly betting close to gametime, usually the closer the better. The reason is that most of the value on props is almost always on unders and No's. It's fairly obvious, but most square prop bettors like to bet on exciting outcomes. Overs and Yes's. You let this money come in and shape and push the market up. Then you come and clean up an hour before gametime when everyone in the world is betting over and yes on everything. I'll have more on this later, but any kind of bet that implies a boring game will usually be profitable). 

I took a screenshot of a bunch of Draft Kings props markets last night, Tuesday 1/27. So these aren't exactly openers and they've probably already been hit a little bit by the first wave of prop opener bettors. But the limits are still small so the big boys, who usually don't even bother with props but will for the SB, haven't even looked yet. So I would still consider these openers.

Anyway, here's a smattering of what DK has:

MAYE: 

223.5 yards, -112 both sides. 

1.5 TD, -151 under.

.5 INT, -145 over.

30.5 Pass Attempts, -112 both sides.

19.5 Completions, -118 under.

DARNOLD: 

228.5 yards, -112 both sides.

1.5 TD, -122 over.

.5 INT, -142 over.

29.5 Pass Attempts, -114 over.

20.5 Completions, -134 under.

RECEIVING YARDS:

(even juice on both sides unless otherwise stated)

Njigba: 95.5

Diggs: 44.5

Henry: 38.5

Kupp: 31.5

Boutte: 31.5

Hollins: 27.5

Shaheed: 22.5 -116 under

Walker: 21.5 -116 over

Stevenson: 21.5

Douglass: 10.5

Hooper: 10.5

RECEPTIONS:

Nijigba: 6.5 -148o

Diggs: 4.5 -128u

Henry: 3.5

Walker: 2.5 -175o

Stevenson: 2.5 -165o

Kupp: 2.5 -164o

Barner: 2.5 -161o

Hollins: 2.5 -129u

Boutte: 2.5 -145u

Shaheed: 1.5 -147o

QB and Receivers used to be my bread and butter for NFL player props so I'll leave it at that, for now at least. 

Oh and one more thing about prop betting but this applies to all betting, all the time: stay away from one way markets. Markets where they don't have to give both sides of a line. I've talked about this before but it bears repeating with the SB in view. The DK, Fan Duels of the world love these kinds of markets and it's easy to see why. If you have to give out a two way line, you can never get too greedy with one side because then you make the other side +EV. For example, say the true price of an event is even odds. In a two way market, a book can offer -110 or -120 both sides and sleep easy. If they want to take a side, maybe they make it -105 / -115 or even +100 / -120. But they can't go past -120 because they would then be offering +105 or better on the side, giving you the best of it. (Books can and do offer +EV bets and this is why we're all here, really, but they try not to).

In a one way market, they don't have this problem. If they know the true price should be +100, they can just put up -140 or whatever and move on. And this is what they do. I have priced some of these markets and I don't think I've ever found a +EV bet. They're just drowning in juice. So always look for two way markets as a baseline. Don't even waste your time in one way markets. This is super simple stuff but I see people bet in one way markets all the time, with no thought at all.

Moving on, there's a developing story you may or may not know about. It's pretty big news here in New England but I'm not sure how mainstream it is. Drake Maye might have an injured throwing shoulder. There's all kind of videos and back and forth on X, but there's a bigger, sneakier reason I think this story might have legs. And it is this article: 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47738481/can-drake-maye-patriots-offense-shake-postseason-woes-super-bowl-seahawks-defense

Now on the surface, that article doesn't look special. But something I have learned over the years with sports reporters (and probably all reporters) and other media personalities, is that all of the big, reputable people have some sort of 'camp' that they gets their information from. It could be the players, it could be the owners/team, it could be the agents, or it could even be the training staff or people around the locker room. Maybe I'm naïve here and maybe I just didn't really think about it before, but I didn't really know this until a few years ago. Some reporters are more like 'team' reporters and while they'll fight and shout down this kind of accusation, a lot of what they report is what the team wants reported. And the same goes the other way. Some reporters are close with the players and/or agents so they'll sort of represent that side. 

I say all this because the reporter who wrote the article I just linked to, Mike Reiss, is THE Patriots Team reporter. He is a Robert Kraft, The Patriots Organization mouthpeice, for lack of a better word. And if you're into this sort of thing, here is a great segment from 2024 of Mike Reiss going at it with Mike Felger, the main guy on the biggest sports talk radio show in Boston (and we take our sports talk radio seriously here, believe me). In this clip, Felger has taken issue with Reiss's reporting that the Patriots offered Brandon Ayiuk the biggest contract offer that he subsequently turned down, for some reason. They get into it and Felger calls him out for being a team mouthpeice guy. It's worth watching if you're into this shit. Also, that's a huge thing here in Boston and a good tell about which reporters are team guys which ones aren't. Every single off season, The Patriots will be 'in' on a big free agent only to have him sign elsewhere. Someone will report that The Pats or Red Sox or Bruins 'actually offered him the best deal' but he didn't take it for some reason. (That reason is almost always that they didn't actually offer him anywhere near the best deal when you really look at the offer and the wording). Those are generally the team guys.

So Reiss is a confirmed Team Guy. And now the day after the Patriots win the AFC and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl, after winning four games last year and completing an epic turnaround, Mr. Team Reporter comes out with this absolute downer of an article. 

Let's look at a couple of lines in it. Again, this is the day after they beat the Broncos to go to, again, the Super Bowl.

Maye hopes for a better result for his team this time around but knows some things likely have to change on his part for that to happen.

Maye's 51.1 QBR in the playoffs is the fourth lowest of any quarterback entering the Super Bowl since 2006

The Patriots will make history if they upset the Seahawks, as no team has beaten four top-10 scoring defenses in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.

Overall, the Pats are averaging 18 points per game in the playoffs, the fourth fewest by a team entering the Super Bowl and the fewest since 1979.

Maye's physical condition also could be a factor. As part of his regular routine, Maye planned for time with team physical therapist/athletic trainer Zach Gerber, whom the signal-caller has credited for helping him endure through the physical grind of the season. Maye was sacked five times on Sunday and took other hits. One noteworthy hit came at the end of a 13-yard run late in the third quarter; on the play, Maye slid somewhat awkwardly and was tackled by safety Talanoa Hufanga, with Maye landing on his throwing shoulder.

"I think a lot of those guys in that locker room are battling through things," he said. "At the same time, the best thing about it is we have another chance at it. Another chance at it to get healthy. Two weeks -- a chance to go win the Super Bowl. That's what it is, and that's pretty cool."

Now, I'm not saying there's anything really earth shattering here. But you have to consider the source. Think of this as The Patriots talking. It's almost like they're building the excuse in beforehand. This line is interesting too now that I think about it: 'The Patriots will make history if they upset the Seahawks, as no team has beaten four top-10 scoring defenses in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.' That isn't a stat you just come upon. Mike Reiss had to have thought about what he was looking for before he started researching that, and he had to have a reason for looking for it. Again, it's almost like Robert Kraft saying after they get blown out: "What did you expect? Our QB was hurt and did you know that no team has beaten four top 10 scoring defenses in a single postseason??" And Robert Kraft is absolutely, 100% the type of guy/owner that cares about this stuff and uses the media like this. The Patriots are famous for shit like this.

And the part that I bolded is interesting too. I didn't catch it the first time but reading it now, that's a bit of an odd way of saying that Maye saw the team trainer. Again, picture the team itself saying this. Why would the team want you know in a really subtle manner that their QB saw the team trainer, especially, as they say, its 'part of his regular routine'? How is that news?

So, again, I don't know if this is a major story, but I do think it's worth keeping an eye on. And I don't think it's at all reflected in the line since it hasn't moved much at all since it opened right after the Broncos game ended and no one could have known about the injury. It definitely isn't factored into the prop lines. With Seattle having a great defense and the nature of the SB, I'll probably have a bunch of PATS player unders anyway, so it isn't super actionable. But I do think that he is hurt more than the market knows and that alone is obviously worth something.

Lastly, I had an incredible conversation with my last man standing PPH agent the other day. It was so funny to me and this is really the only place I can share it where anyone will know what the fuck I'm talking about. So I've talked about it before but I have had one PPH account that has lasted for my entire betting career, roughly 15 years now. I lost access to everything on there except straight bets and teasers, but the account has never been shut down. I've shared this account with various different groups of sharps and have taken quite a lot of money from it over the years. I've learned why it hasn't gotten shut down too, and that has to do with the relationship between my 'agent' and the main guy taking action. My 'agent' is actually the guy pretending to own the account and he and the main guy have some of weird relationship where the main guy feels 'too proud' to shut it down and, I guess, 'admit defeat'. (Honest to god, bookies are the some of the dumbest motherfuckers I have ever met). 

If/when I finally do lose this account for good, I'll talk more about it. But for now, just know that the guy I deal with who we'll call the 'agent' has been working with me since I started. He took my action first but then switched to getting me accounts for a piece of my action. He was a well respected, entrenched bookie in the area so he could get good accounts and always get paid. Worked out great for me. Anyway, a feature of this long standing account that I have is that the main guy will move lines way into arbable territory, all the time, for seemingly no reason at all. I've talked about this many times on here. But he's been doing this forever, moving lines across key numbers, sometimes moving them like a good 2 or 3 points. It's insane. And this account has massive limits. Massive for me, anyway. If my normal bet is 1 unit, the max bet is 25.

So when this guy moves a line that is arbale with Pinnacle, I'll almost always max it out and scalp out whatever I don't want on the other side at Pinny's price. For a while, like, years, these plays got crushed. For whatever reason, they just ran bad. But recently and this year especially, I have been killing it on his moved plays. And the main guy finally seems to be noticing and has been bitching about it to my agent. Why he doesn't just lower my max bet (or stop moving games) I have no idea. That would make too much sense. 

But the money shot here that my agent, this guy I've been dealing with for 15+ years now and has been getting me accounts and a piece of my action all this time, said this to me recently after meeting with the main guy: "I think if you max out the game before he moves the line, that would be fine." I literally laughed out loud when I read it. He STILL, to this day, doesn't understand that I'm only betting these games because he moved the line. The concept of the market, off market lines, scalping/arbing, Pinnacle...none of it means anything to him. This guy has been a bookie for more than 20 years! This is who you're up against in the PPH world. They're dumb but they're even dumb about sports betting! And these are professional, long time, real deal bookies. This is also why the PPH world is dying off but that's a post for another time.

That's it for now, check back soon as I'll for sure have at least one other post up before Sunday.

Talk soon, bye for now!

NFL Push Charts! Get Your Push Charts!

 Push Charts have always been something of a White Whale for me. I understand their importance and have always been on the lookout for them, but I haven't had an updated one in over a decade now. I always sort of meant to create my own but I could just never get myself to start. (If you don't know, a push chart is a chart showing how often games land on a certain number for any period of time, usually 3-5 seasons. For instance, say you were looking at a 100 game NFL sample and you saw that 15 games ended up with the home team winning by exactly 3. You would say that -3 has a push percentage of 15%). Push charts show you the value of each number and of moving on or off of each number. They're especially useful for football where points are scored in clumps, mostly 7s and 3s. Say a game is lined at -7 -108 / +7 -102. Say you can bet -6.5 -120 at another book. Is that a better bet than -7 -108? What is the breakeven point of getting that extra half point, either to -6.5 or +7.5? What's the fair value of going from -2.5 to -3.5? How much equity do I pick up teasing a team from +2 to +8? What is each half point worth? Remember, each individual number is unique. Push charts answer these questions.

I stumbled upon a new site the other day that advertised push charts. I emailed them and they said they could give me a 5 year sample for $3k. That seemed a bit steep so I said I would probably do it for about half that. He then got back to me way too quick that he could do it for $1500 and wanted to 'send me paperwork.' I thought about it some more and I thought even $1500 seems high. I thought 'let me throw an hour at this and see if I can't do it on my own.' It ended up taking a lot more than an hour and I had to learn some new things in excel, but I did it! I created my own real, updated, double checked push charts! Right now I have the last 3 years (25, 24, 23) but I'll have 5 years soon. I have each year individually and all three together. So if anyone is interesting in buying them from me, shoot me a message here or on X (@poogsBLOG). I'd let them go for cheaper than the guy I talked to was going to. (Honestly now that I've done it, $3k is an absurd ask).

I'll have a post up soon, probably before this weekend as I have some thoughts on the games and even a couple weird bets that I think are super +EV. So check back soon and let me know if you want any push chart action!

Props Results, NFL Playoffs Week 1 Review And Some Random Thoughts

Quite the slate of games this past weekend, huh? 

First of all, prop results from Saturday:

Stafford UNDER 33.5 passing attempts -106 (DK) 1.5 units.

LOSS, 42 attempts. This play assumed LAR would be holding a lead late and running a ton. CAR has a bottom 10 rushing defense, too. I liked this play and still think it was +EV. -1.59u.

Kyren Williams OVER 68.5 rushing yards -112 (FD)

LOSS, 57 yards. Absolutely no idea how this didn't cash as he averaged a chunky 4.4 yards per rush with 13 attempts. He was gashing them every run it seemed but LAR relied heavily on their pass game for most of the day, especially late. Going 3/13 on third downs was one of the big reasons this game was as close as it was. I needed about 3 more touches for Kyren. -1.12u.

Blake Corum OVER 42.5 rushing yards -112 (DK) (half unit). (This is a bit of a hedge to the Kyren bet. I like these two combined).

WIN, 45 yards. Glad I threw this in as a sort of Kyren hedge. Again, CAR is pretty bad against the run. +.5u.

Bryce Young OVER .5 INT -126 (DK)

WIN, 1 INT. This could have been 1.5 units as the edge was pretty decent. +1u.

Bryce Young OVER 1.5 TD's +185 (DK)

LOSS, 1 TD. If you knew Young was going to throw it 40 times and CAR would end up with 31 points, you'd for sure think this bet would cash. -1u.

Kyren Williams OVER 14.5 rush attempts -113 (DK)

LOSS, 13 attempts. I could have cashed this out profitably in the first half as LAR was feeding him and he was gashing. But they went air heavy in the second half especially. -1.13u.

Stafford OVER 255.5 yards -112 (FD)

WIN, 304 yards. Never in doubt, really. +1u.

Parlay: B Young over .5 pass TD and over .5 INT +140 (PPH) (half unit)

Nice little square looking win. This probably should have been a full unit. +.7u.

And a nice little First Quarter semi middle with Stafford under 64.5 yards -114 (DK) and over 60.5 -115 (FD). Under = 2 units. Over = 1 unit.

LOSS of 1.3 units. 67 yards! So close. Not exactly sure if this was profitable in hindsight but I think it was. I usually look for prop middles like this to be at least 10%. For instance, over 100 yards and under 110 yards. This was only about 6.5% but with it being only a quarter of the game, I think it was a good middle. The very last play of the first quarter was a 15 yard pass from Stafford to Parkinson. If he gets tackled 2.5 to 6.5 yards shorter, we bink. Oh well! -1.3u

Little first half CP action: Car +6.5, under 23.5 +180 (FD)

LOSS, although Fan Duel had a couple very arb-able alt first half lines of +6.5 and +3.5 which I unloaded on which all won. -1u.

All in all -2.94 units on props, not counting the first half CP. So I guess -3.94 units total but the CP was tiny.

These all 'felt' really good and I don't even regret betting them. I think long term altogether they were +EV. However, I've 'felt' this way about my props for like 5 years now and have been break even with props at absolute best. I'll probably do this again for a few more games and I would like to get in the green for NFL playoff props in total but we shall see. Really depends on if I have the time but with so few games remaining, I think I will. I saw some things in prop land that I haven't before and I had some ideas flowing. But, whatever! Props are just not quite my jam anymore. You DFS fucks ruined the whole godamn thing. *Mike Ehrmantraut from Breaking Bad: 'We had a good thing you stupid son of a bitch!'*

I had an OK week in total. I lost about 3 units overall but I have the last leg of a massive teaser pending tonight (PIT +8.5). [I wrote most of this Monday]. I can lock up more than 12 units if I go with straight arbs, but with the super low total (38) I'll definitely go with some middles. Depends what I can get on HOU.

I managed to get both sides of Wonging JAX/BUF for big amounts which was good. I had to use PHI +.5 as a leg for a lot of my teasers which obviously lost. That wasn't a great leg anyway so I fully hedged it with SF ML, SF -2.5 and some SF +3.5. If PHI won by 3 or less it would have been perfect.

Looking ahead, SEA and DEN look like juicy Wongable games. My PPH has DEN +1 so I'll be watching that close, looking to snipe a +1.5 teased up to +7.5.

Random football thoughts:

-Why do O-Lines telegraph the snap so much these days? It seems like nearly every game I see, the Guard throws his arm up so the center can see it, then the center snaps the ball. Every single snap. Or, like Tony Romo used to be famous for, snapping it with 1 second left on the play clock in nearly every single situation. It lets the defense really tee up. I know with Romo it was more to see as much of the defense pre snap as possible, but that isn't the case with what I see these days. I especially noticed it last night with the Chargers. Every play the Guard looks back at the QB, waves his hand near the centers face, then they snap it, essentially giving the defense a count down to the snap. Doesn't that seem stupid? And if you are going to do that, how do you not put a couple fakes in mid game? Like, establish that that is your pattern, then on a have-to-have it down, you have the guard wave his hand and then NOT snap it right then? Or quick snap it with no hand wave? Where's the deception? Similarly, every single QB has a pre-snap cadence. You can probably hear some of them in your head right now. I feel like I never hear them use that to their advantage. Establish your cadence, use it every single down, but then mid game change it up. I think Aaron Rodgers does shit like that but I don't think anyone else does. Curious!

-Another similar thing that has always bugged me is on field goal defenses. I see this all the time and it's so obvious that I think I must be missing something. Say an offense is lining up to a kick a field goal where there is a zero percent chance that they're going to run a fake. Something like 4th and 20 on the 35 yard line, down by 2 with 1 second left in the game. It doesn't even have to be that dramatic but let's use that as an example. ZERO chance that the offense is doing anything other than kicking the field goal. You'll see two, sometimes three players on defense drop back to defend the possible fake. I know there are rules for rushing/blocking a kick, but can't you line up guys on the outside of the formation to rush? I know you can't jump over the center anymore (which is gay) and you can't use leverage, but I don't think there are rules dictating how many guys can rush the line. (I just spent 20 minutes trying to look this up online but can't find anything). I've seen literally Super Bowl game winning kicks with no time left on the clock with 2 or 3 guys on defense basically dropping back into coverage. Again, curious!

Random non-football thoughts:

-I saw an absolutely filthy hockey highlight the other day from womens hockey, actually. Abbey Murphy, who plays for Minnesota and who was recently named to the Olympic team, made a big brain play that was as unique and smart as it was athletic. To be honest and with recency bias in mind, I have to say that it was one of the best hockey assists I think I have ever seen. This article has a 12 second slow motion replay of it, but seeing it full speed and at a couple different angles is worth it. Actually, this video is even better. If you can't watch it, real quick, she's skating into the offensive zone with the puck on a 2 on 1. With the defender right in front of her, she flicks the puck up in the air, bats it down lacrosse style through the defenseman's legs, gathers it back on her stick and dishes it across to her teammate who buries it. Nasty. (Speaking of women and hockey, it is still so incredibly jarring to me when I put on an NHL game and hear a woman commenting. Let's be honest: it sucks. And who is it for, exactly? I don't even believe that the 8 women watching hockey on their own like it. Do girls want straight men giving running commentary during something like a Victorias Secret fashion show? If everything is for everyone then it's really for nobody).

-I came across a video and a guy recently that I liked so much, I have to share. His name is Benjamin Zander and he's a pretty famous conductor. He's currently the musical director of the Boston Philharmonic Orchestra and the Boston Philharmonic Youth Orchestra. He's given Ted Talks and I guess if you're into classical music you probably know about him. Well, he does these things where he takes a student playing their instrument in front of a small audience and he walks them through their performance, giving all kinds of insight into the song and music and even life in general. I've watched a bunch of his videos now and they're all incredible. However, one really stuck out to me. It's from 10 years ago and has over a million views on Youtube. Here it is. Seriously, do yourself a favor and watch it. (Start watching it at 5:30 the first time you watch it as the first 5 minutes is the student playing the song by himself. The magic happens when Zander gets involved). I've been a musician my whole life (guitar and drums) but even if you aren't one, it is still for sure worth watching. Seriously, I've watched this video now 5 times. Besides the song being awesome on its own (I'm kind of starting to get into classical music a little bit now?), you just gotta see how passionate and knowledgeable this guy is. It's hard to explain. If you trust my taste at all at this point, watch the video. His TED talk is worth a watch too.

-I watched a documentary on Netflix recently called 'In Waves and War.' It was about soldiers, PTSD and mushroom therapy (I'm still holding my mushroom stocks like a shroom-cuck at this point). It was an OK doc, I suppose worth watching. Right on the edge of being worth it actually. But something really stood out to me. This is not going to sound great and I debated even bringing this up but bear with me here for a minute. The basic gist of the doc is a group of veterans who are all really struggling with PTSD and depression and adjusting to life back home. These are real deal, in combat Navy Seal dudes. They take Ibogaine which is basically magic mushrooms and it immensely helps them, short and long term. Besides giving me some much needed confidence in my Cybin, MindMed, and Compass stock positions, I had something of a surprising reaction. I found myself sort of really not liking these guys. Not in an anti-military way at all, but there was almost something, dare I say, fake about them? Like they were just way too into being soldiers and maybe too into being wounded soldiers? (I told you this wasn't going to sound good.) They were all so unbelievably impressed with themselves but also looked to be desperate for you to be impressed. Plus it was like they were impressed at themselves for not being impressed by themselves, even though they clearly were. They all viewed themselves as professional soldiers, almost like comic book hero's, and seemingly nothing else. The way they talked about their trauma and their wounds and the shit they went through was in this weird way whey they almost seemed to like it? And there was a thing where they acted like they didn't want to talk about it but they clearly loved every minute of it. And part of me couldn't help think something like 'you know, thanks and everything, genuinely, but no one made you do any of this. No one even really asked...?' (I'm whispering and gingerly taking baby steps here). I've seen a lot of WW2 docs and those guys were like night and day with these guys. I remember one WW2 pilot veteran was talking about seeing an enemy shooting at paratroopers. He says "I circled around and opened up on him. That was the end of that" just super nonchalant and not trying appear nonchalant. 

I was thinking about it because I think we're all missing something. Some sort of deeper connection, a purpose and identity inside ourselves. With these soldiers in the doc, it was like if they weren't soldiers then they were nothing. Like there was nothing in or about them that wasn't 'soldier'. I get that they were all fucked up for real but one guy was screaming 'get the fuck away from me!' at his wife and kids while watching war videos in his garage with a whiskey and a gun in his hand. It was almost like they were acting. (Just to be clear here, I do have immense respect for anyone who sees any kind of actual combat. I know as much as anyone that we need walls and protectors and one of my favorite quotes of all time is "people sleep peacefully in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.") So I'm really not talking about veterans in general here. I'm talking more about the lack of anything in these soldiers other than 'SOLDIER'. And I know that obviously these guys don't pick their missions, but so much war and mayhem over the past 25 years has been for murky and nebulous and even nefarious reasons. Fucking oil pipe lines and Haliburton stock. It almost made me want to say 'hey man, just go skydiving or race cars or something.' Ya know. If it's going to make you want to kill your family, like, just do something else maybe?

I don't even know what the fuck point I'm trying to make here exactly. A semi-professional gambler who grew up on a cul de sac weighing in on Navy Seal combat veterans being just a bit too into themselves, lol. I told you it wasn't gonna sound great. But something about the guys in that doc was off-putting in an awfully strange way and I've never had that feeling watching something like that before. Usually when I watch war docs like this, I'm halfway standing at attention with a crisp salute and misty eyes. But in this one I couldn't help but feel like saying 'we will all be okay if you guys just become personal trainers or downhill mountain bike riders, especially if it means you don't threaten to Chris Watts your wife and two little kids. The Lockheed stock ain't that important.' It made me think of what a waste it is to use up men like that, too. Fierce, loyal, super competent warriors destroying their lives and their families lives for, ultimately, what? Soldiers and symptoms of a sick, dying, hollow, late state regime perhaps.

We'll end here on this happy note. Check back soon, lots of action coming up.

Some Quick NFL Props For Today

 I had some time today to go through the LAR/CAR game for props, so here is what I have, roughly in order from my favorite on down.

Quick reminder: I have not made any money betting NFL props for years. Again, I am not a profitable prop bettor anymore. I have always done better in the playoffs than regular season, but I am NOT telling you to follow me on these. This is just what I have going today:

All one unit unless otherwise stated.

Stafford UNDER 33.5 passing attempts -106 (DK) 1.5 units.

Kyren Williams OVER 68.5 rushing yards -112 (FD)

Blake Corum OVER 42.5 rushing yards -112 (DK) (half unit). (This is a bit of a hedge to the Kyren bet. I like these two combined).

Bryce Young OVER .5 INT -126 (DK)

Bryce Young OVER 1.5 TD's +185 (DK)

Kyren Williams OVER 14.5 rush attempts -113 (DK)

Stafford OVER 255.5 yards -112 (FD)

Parlay: B Young over .5 pass TD and over .5 INT +140 (PPH) (half unit)

And a nice little First Quarter semi middle with Stafford under 64.5 yards -114 (DK) and over 60.5 -115 (FD). Under = 2 units. Over = 1 unit.

Little first half CP action: Car +6.5, under 23.5 +180 (FD)

Pretty square looking to be honest. I have CAR ML boosted to +480 which is probably my favorite bet today. I'm trying to middle the 10 but I can't quite get it profitably. 

Anyway, good luck and check back soon for results!

2025 In Review; Sports Betting, Crypto, Futures, Politics, Books And More

 2025 kind of flew by, no? I feel like I didn't write '2025' or '/25' all that much for it to be a full year. I like the theory that as you get older, everything seems to speed up since each passing year, or passing minute, really, is a smaller percentage of your lived life. A year to a 10 year old is 10% of his whole life so far. To a 50 year old, it's only 2%.

2025 was a good year for me, betting wise. Not great but not bad at all. Ever since 2019, when my volume really dropped off and I was no longer full time, I have made what I would consider about bare minimum to be as into betting as I am. 2020 was a good year with all the whacky Covid era video game and stock market bets, plus these weird KHL correlated parlays I was able to bet, but 19, 21, 22 and 23 were pretty low. I have never had a losing year betting in my life, but after 2023 I really gave up the idea of modeling with any kind of seriousness. 2024 was somewhat of a bounce back year. By throwing in the towel on modeling props, I was able to really hone in on other stuff, mainly team totals and teasers. I've always bet Wong teasers but these past two years I really learned a lot more about the math of it all and I made a nice google sheet to show all my pending bets cleanly. That google sheet was probably the best thing I did recently betting wise and I highly suggest anyone out there do the same. I used to not put all my pending bets anywhere which I can't even really believe thinking back. Then I would do it with pen and paper which always eventually got messy enough to be useless. Having all my positions readily available nice and neat has been great. As soon as I make a bet I put it in the sheet, then I have a set up for each matchup so I know exactly what I have on each side. One of those things that you can't believe you ever lived without once you start using it.

So 2024 was good and 2025 was a little bit below, but more than double the down years. It's odd, for the 4 years I didn't do as good I made almost the exact same amount all 4 years. My volume was up slightly in 2025 from 2024 but the ROI was a little bit less. (3.02% ROI for the year which really isn't bad at all). I actually took most of the summer off as I had zero action all of July and August. I've never taken that much time off before. But from September to the end of the year was a Dustin Pedroia laser show. I crushed NFL this year, going 12 for 18 for winning weeks. The week of 11/10 this year was my best week since late 2020.

I made more betting teasers this year than I ever have, including when I was full time. I will admit though that that's a bit misleading since I lost more in straight NFL bets than ever before, which was due to all the teaser hedges. I made more than double in teasers than what I lost in NFL straights, however. Something to think about going forward is just how much the teaser hedges got crushed. I would have obviously been much better off not hedging anything, but then I wouldn't be able to fire as much on teasers. Maybe I am over hedging a little bit though. Something I need to think about for next year, assuming I still have this PPH account.

This was the first year I really tried out legal sports books, too. Really no idea what took me so long. I honestly had no clue how many promos and odds boost they give out. I was so used to the wild wild west days of scammy books fucking everyone over, it didn't hit me that these legal books were simply dying for new customers. My results on both Fan Duel and Draft Kings for the year are pretty close to break-even with big volume, which is perfect. I'll have a long leash at both places and I do bet some hedges at widely available numbers on both sites, so I should be able to stay long at both and eat up the rewards. I'm already up on DK with the Gold/Silver/Platinum thing.

Besides the NHL Shots on Goal/Blocks foray, I bet very little props this year, really only betting with an odds boost or a promo. All together I made like 3 units. So I'm pretty much done with props unless it's something glaring. I made a decent 8 units Live Betting, which was good. Ending in the green Live Betting was a personal challenge for me in 2025. 

One strange thing was that I lost 10ish units on 'Straights' which I have in my sheet as any straight bet that isn't on NFL. That's almost exclusively odds boost bets which are almost always arbale with the market. Hard to understand how I lost in this, but I made money in 'non NFL straights' from September on, so I think this will be green in 2026 as I get better at using the promos/odds boost.

I lost a tiny amount with Robin Hood futures. Looking back, buying a bunch of bullish crypto futures at the very end of the bull market this year was horrific. Really kicking myself over that, actually. I have plenty of crypto exposure, there was no reason to add to it, especially with the market being at all time highs. Seriously, what the fuck was I thinking? I actually remember buying a few of these, thinking in the back of my head that they should all be the other side. Oh well.

All in all, a good year betting. I binked what felt like a few more middles than usual and not capping props at all was an absolute load off this year. Really freed me up for other stuff. I might actually break out the prop models for the playoffs this year a little bit but we'll see.

2025 was, somehow, somewhat of a disappointing year for crypto. Bitcoin actually officially had a red year, coming in at about -6%. With all the ETFs and the mainstream acceptance of BTC, it's hard to wrap your mind around the down year, until you realize that it was at $42k Jan 2024, and $17k Jan 2023. Same thing I always say with Bitcoin: just zoom out and keep stacking. I'm waiting for this bear market to officially hit us so I can scoop up a lot more at a discount, but it feels like everyone is thinking the same thing. I can't imagine the bottom is already in but crazier things have happened. Personally, I'm waiting for a break under $86kish, which feels like the new floor. All the pundits think roughly $50k will be this years low but obviously no one knows anything.

The biggest news in crypto this year, besides the ETF's, was the complete lack of an alt-season. We've discussed that on here before but that really is a big deal. It makes some people nervous, but I think it's just a healthy market correction. For how long could you really expect Joe Blow to be speculating into NFTs and meme coins? (Remember Bored Apes lol. How embarrassing.) The BTC/ETH chart is almost exactly dead even for 2025, but that's been in a big macro down trend since 2022. Early 2022 you could get .088 BTC for one ETH. Today, that number is .034. (And mid 2025 it was .019, so it's actually kind of been pumping lately).

Politics has been pretty insane here, honestly. The amount that things have shifted since the 2020 madness is mind boggling. I've honestly turned into a one issue voter. I want deportations, and a lot of them. The free lunch is over. I say this all the time but we really have absolutely no idea how good we could and should have it in America. I've made a few posts like this recently so I won't get too into it now. But for me, the economy, the foreign policy, even the Fed, it all takes a back seat to getting hateful freeloaders the fuck OUT of here, and the first step of that is to say it. No more fear. At all. I'm actually ashamed at how absurd we all let it get, thinking back. But anyway.

I read quite a few books in 2025. The best one by far was The Watchmen comic. Seriously, give that a read if you haven't before. I read Doomsday Clock afterwards too, which is considered somewhat of a sequel to Watchmen. It was ok. Worth reading but too comic-y for me. Not in the same league as Watchmen. Another book I read recently was The Alchemist (again I got it for free walking around my neighborhood. I've never been one for signs or anything of the sort, but it is a little bit strange the books that have just like literally ended up right in front of me, for free.) The Alchemist is a pretty famous book, for sure worth reading. Not long or hard to read at all, either.

Personally, my daughter is now 2.5. My wife and I are still going strong and my 'real' career is going great. I admit I can get a little bit down sometimes but when you look at it all from a couple steps back, it's all pretty good. I turn fucking 40 this year which is a bit of a mind fuck. Sometimes I forget I'm not 16 anymore. Though I will say I'm not as freaked out as I thought I might be. 30 really fucked with me. I was such a 20-something year old. But at this point, I guess I do feel 40. Or at least, like, 32.

All in all, I am grateful. I could definitely have more of a social life these days - it's pretty crazy how that just drops out when everyone starts having kids. But anytime I go out these days I'm looking to get home pretty early. I'm not going to do any goals for 2026 or anything, but I would like betting to be at least as good as 2025 and I definitely want to play more poker. If we get a big bear market, I want to really load up on Bitcoin. I want to be a good father too, which I think is important to think about. I'm not so sure my parents thought like that when I was my daughters age.

I'm going to wrap it up here. I will have some sort of Christmas/New Years bizarro post out soon. 

And from me to you, genuinely, thank you for reading. I like doing this blog, it's fun. See ya later!

Minnesota And The Tipping Point

As I am sure you are aware of by now, massive fraud has been uncovered in Minnesota recently. MASSIVE, as in perhaps the biggest case of fraud in the history of America, which generally means in the history of the world. We're talking tens of BILLIONS of dollars of fraud, and we're just getting started. The sheer dollar amount is, of course, staggering, but there are so many things at play here. The brazenness, the complete disinterest from the mainstream media, the fact that a random Youtuber was the guy who broke the story, the fact that the State or at least some agencies in the State seem to be in on it. The fact that we're talking about fucking Somalian pirates in the state of Minnesota at all. The general incompetence of the fraudsters to where it's almost comical and how they all seem to be not even trying to hide it anymore. This feels like a real tipping point. 

While there are thousands of these little fake daycare centers in MN, 'The Quality Learing Center' has emerged as the face of all of them, and the events that have transpired there in the past couple of weeks is nothing short of breath taking for the sheer incompetence and brazenness.

For starters, obviously, they spelled the word 'Learning' wrong on their fucking front door. THEY MISSPELLED THE WORD LEARNING ON THE FRONT DOOR. I mean, if you read that in a story by George Orwell or Ray Bradbury, you would think it's too on the nose.

So the day that Nick Shirley's video comes out, another Youtuber (@NickSortor) goes to the Learing Center and starts filming. They notice that not only is the word 'learning' misspelled, but the street address, which is posted just under their business name and stuck to the front window, is incorrect too!

Keep in mind, this at about midnight. Have you ever heard of a daycare center with a dozen of young men employees working at midnight? Anyway, literally 8 or 9 of these guys are all milling around the front door, trying to figure out how to fix the sign and the address letters. They kind of figured out the sign, sort of, but they give up trying to figure out how to detach letters from glass and just tape up printing paper with the correct address on it! Again, it reminds me of an SNL skit. If it weren't for the fact that it's MY country being raped, it would be literally laugh out loud funny.

But we're not done yet. Not even close. So the next day, 'manager' of 'Nokomis Daycare Center, Nasrulah Mohamed' comes out to have some sort of press conference. Again, like a skit, everything is on the nose perfect. You've got the Standard Issue dopey, dead eyed liberal White woman in the background, choking back tears, holding a sign with words written in yellow so they're impossible to see. What looks like her cucked-out husband standing behind her, looking like he's envisioning driving his car 120 MPH into a wall. Some sort of trans looking White person with the yellow 'pedo-glasses.' A 'trying to look intimidating Somali guy' wearing his best Adidas hoodie for the occasion. But the best part? The kid making the statement, with his fitted Yankees cap, trying his hardest to use the right words in the right order, is wearing $2500 designer glasses. Again, you couldn't make this up if you tried. $2500 designer glasses! Have you ever spent over $2k on glasses? Do you know anyone who has? This kid is (pretending to be) a manager of a daycare center. And he's on TV, in front of the nation, having just been accussed of mind boggling fraud. And he's wearing $2500 on his face!

But it doesn't stop there.

Besides denying everything, of course, besides playing victim and calling everyone and anyone racist, he says that last night, someone broke in and stole all their paperwork! All the papers that they might be asked to provide to prove that they are, in fact, running a daycare center, are now stolen! What luck! What timing! 'We saw that our office doors was broken into as well. We saw that, unfortunately, we saw that important documentation, enrollment of the children (the (((White))) woman in the background begins to cry) and also employee documentation was gone.'

In another one of these SNL, Kids In The Hall, Kafka-esque, Somalian daycare center 'press conferences/skits', a young Somali woman with a hijab steps to the mic. The cast is again complete with the perfunctory sad-looking White woman in the background to facially scold us all and people holding signs that look like children drew. The Somali girl says that she won't be able to go to school or work if these government funded daycare centers lose their funding. Ignoring the logic there for a second, she says 'I know that fraud is bad' and catches herself. She puts her hand to her mouth, looks around absolutely terrified, and then just leaves. But not before flashing her left hand to show a gigantic engagement ring. I mean, it's comical. It's so brazen, stupid, bizarre that you almost have to tip your cap to them.

On the topic of non-Whites stealing from us en masse, here's another example, albeit a distinctly different flavor. This is on the completely other end of the fraud spectrum: just as evil, only the incompetence is replaced with a malicious cunningness. Here is a video of three young Jewish men talking to each other on a podcast. They all have their little hats and the weird hair curl things that Orthodox Jews have, and you know what they're discussing? The fact that 'Section 8, people don't know this, Section 8 has a program where instead of paying your rent, the government will pay your mortgage.' The other guy almost falls off his seat he's so impressed. 'They'll pay your mortgage!?' 'They pay the mortgage so basically they buy your house for you.' And here's the kicker: "Now before you reach out to me for this, I have no idea about it' (they all laugh). 'ChatGPT it but it's all legal.' He knew that what he said was like putting chum in shark infested waters and didn't want to get inundated with requests from his 'audience' on how to defraud the American people through Section 8 housing. If you wrote this exact script in a comedy show in England, you might honestly get jail time.

As I've been reading and watching all this unfold in real time, something occurred to me. Can you imagine people from Norway or Japan doing this? Or a Frenchman or an Englishman? In one of these videos I mentioned, you have about a dozen masked young men milling around the front of a fake daycare center at midnight. They can't figure out how to fix the multiple misspellings on their front signage and eventually give up and use taped up printer paper. They try to menace the guy filming, walking all around him oddly and taking multiple pictures of his license plate. They stage a fake break-in at one of the centers and claim that all their paperwork got stolen. The two people making the public statements crying about needing government aid have $2500 eye-glasses and a huge engagement ring. And it's all so they can keep their obviously fake daycare center schemes running, among a population that is over 70% on welfare. So I ask again, can you even picture in your mind White immigrants doing ANY of this? Fraud on top of incompetence on top of fraud. Of course not. It's beyond preposterous. 

I haven't even gotten into the Tim Walz and Jacob Frye of it all. Jacob (((Frye))) dancing around on stage in Minnesota like a little girl, putting down the rainbow flag just long enough to pick up and wave around a Somali flag. Tim Walz blaming 'White Supremacy' when someone first asked him about the fraud. The complete disinterest turned to hostility towards Nick Shirley from the corporate media. It's all been laid bare right in front of us. If this isn't a tipping point, then maybe there won't be a tipping point.

Speaking of tipping points, a short little video came across my timeline recently that I absolutely loved and want to share. From something called The Battle Of Ideas 2025, it's an absolute smoke-show young woman from Ireland who lives in London. She's addressing some sort of panel of people that look straight out of Shit Lib-Globalist casting. She spends about 2 minutes defending Western culture and talking about how dangerous and dirty London has become. She says 'we are NOT a nation of immigrants' and points out the fact that more people have come to England since 1997 than between 1066 and 1997. Her whole statement is great, right off the cuff and passionate. But the reason I want to share it is for the last 30 seconds. She finishes her point with a touch of mic drop attitude and gets the loudest and longest applause of the night. It was a meaningful and pointed applause, but the money shot is right at the end. Seriously, pause the video at 2:48. The camera pans to the panel of the pro-immigrant globalist shitlibs and they look miserable. Absolutely miserable. Arms crossed, sunk in their seats, hands over their mouths, looking meekly at each other. They felt something in that crowd and in that applause. The clock has officially begun.

Finally, one more video. A group of young Muslims (or whatever) in France stumbling upon a nice, grand piano, graciously sitting somewhere in public for people to use for free. Literally like monkeys seeing a, well, piano, they start kicking it. Even the girls can't help themselves from stomping on the keys with their feet. One of them lifts it up a couple feet and slams it back down. Is that not an absolutely perfect metaphor? Do you know the collective minds that have to come together to produce a grand piano? And it's not like they're just mystified or impressed by it. They're hostile to it. To a piano! Have you ever, in your entire fucking life, seen a grand piano and thought about stomping on the keys with your feet?? Two of them did that! Or picking it up to slam it back on the ground?? My two year old daughter treats her little toy keyboard with more respect. They hate us, they hate everything about us, they steal from us and they talk about stealing from us on podcasts. This simply cannot and will not last.