Push Charts have always been something of a White Whale for me. I understand their importance and have always been on the lookout for them, but I haven't had an updated one in over a decade now. I always sort of meant to create my own but I could just never get myself to start. (If you don't know, a push chart is a chart showing how often games land on a certain number for any period of time, usually 3-5 seasons. For instance, say you were looking at a 100 game NFL sample and you saw that 15 games ended up with the home team winning by exactly 3. You would say that -3 has a push percentage of 15%). Push charts show you the value of each number and of moving on or off of each number. They're especially useful for football where points are scored in clumps, mostly 7s and 3s. Say a game is lined at -7 -108 / +7 -102. Say you can bet -6.5 -120 at another book. Is that a better bet than -7 -108? What is the breakeven point of getting that extra half point, either to -6.5 or +7.5? What's the fair value of going from -2.5 to -3.5? How much equity do I pick up teasing a team from +2 to +8? What is each half point worth? Remember, each individual number is unique. Push charts answer these questions.
I stumbled upon a new site the other day that advertised push charts. I emailed them and they said they could give me a 5 year sample for $3k. That seemed a bit steep so I said I would probably do it for about half that. He then got back to me way too quick that he could do it for $1500 and wanted to 'send me paperwork.' I thought about it some more and I thought even $1500 seems high. I thought 'let me throw an hour at this and see if I can't do it on my own.' It ended up taking a lot more than an hour and I had to learn some new things in excel, but I did it! I created my own real, updated, double checked push charts! Right now I have the last 3 years (25, 24, 23) but I'll have 5 years soon. I have each year individually and all three together. So if anyone is interesting in buying them from me, shoot me a message here or on X (@poogsBLOG). I'd let them go for cheaper than the guy I talked to was going to. (Honestly now that I've done it, $3k is an absurd ask).
I'll have a post up soon, probably before this weekend as I have some thoughts on the games and even a couple weird bets that I think are super +EV. So check back soon and let me know if you want any push chart action!
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