I want to touch on a few things today. I know the ICE operations and the two people that got killed in MN are top of the news right now, and while I have plenty of thoughts on the matter, I thought we would take a little break from all that right now. I'll have a big post up eventually about what I see as the death of libertarianism and atheism that will encapsulate my thoughts on the issue at hand, for whatever they're worth. But for now I want to discuss the Super Bowl, a possible Poogs Scoops McGee under-reported injury, and a funny PPH anecdote.
First off, it's Super Bowl time. Two weeks out from the biggest yearly sporting event on the planet. If you are at all an advantage gambler, a sharp, or a regular bettor just trying to lose less and eventually, maybe, make some money betting, this should be a big 10 days. Most everyone knows this by now, but sports books absolutely lose their fucking minds for the Super Bowl. They all try new things, they almost all offer some sort of in-house prop market and most all of them offer my favorite market of all time: cross sport props. Even though I have largely hung up my prop betting uniform, the Super Bowl is always worth busting out the old models and putting them to use. You have to look deep into your sports books. Alt prop prices, 'novelty bets', anything with the word 'exotic' in it. These are the types of bets that you absolutely can handicap yourself and can make money on. Pretty easily, honestly. Sports books take in so much money for the Super Bowl and a lot of it is super square and unlike basically every other game during the year, this square money will be reflected in the market. And yes, the limits on these novelty bets are generally small, but you can usually get at least a couple hundred down on anything and there are so many of them. Plus you have two full weeks and what the fuck else are you doing anyway?
I'll have another post closer to the game with some of my bets and also how to bet on the SB specifically and what to look for. But for now, let's take a look at what Draft Kings opened with for a few of the bigger name prop bets. Seeing how these move throughout the week will give us some information on its own. (In general though, with props in the SB, you want to be mostly betting close to gametime, usually the closer the better. The reason is that most of the value on props is almost always on unders and No's. It's fairly obvious, but most square prop bettors like to bet on exciting outcomes. Overs and Yes's. You let this money come in and shape and push the market up. Then you come and clean up an hour before gametime when everyone in the world is betting over and yes on everything. I'll have more on this later, but any kind of bet that implies a boring game will usually be profitable).
I took a screenshot of a bunch of Draft Kings props markets last night, Tuesday 1/27. So these aren't exactly openers and they've probably already been hit a little bit by the first wave of prop opener bettors. But the limits are still small so the big boys, who usually don't even bother with props but will for the SB, haven't even looked yet. So I would still consider these openers.
Anyway, here's a smattering of what DK has:
MAYE:
223.5 yards, -112 both sides.
1.5 TD, -151 under.
.5 INT, -145 over.
30.5 Pass Attempts, -112 both sides.
19.5 Completions, -118 under.
DARNOLD:
228.5 yards, -112 both sides.
1.5 TD, -122 over.
.5 INT, -142 over.
29.5 Pass Attempts, -114 over.
20.5 Completions, -134 under.
RECEIVING YARDS:
(even juice on both sides unless otherwise stated)
Njigba: 95.5
Diggs: 44.5
Henry: 38.5
Kupp: 31.5
Boutte: 31.5
Hollins: 27.5
Shaheed: 22.5 -116 under
Walker: 21.5 -116 over
Stevenson: 21.5
Douglass: 10.5
Hooper: 10.5
RECEPTIONS:
Nijigba: 6.5 -148o
Diggs: 4.5 -128u
Henry: 3.5
Walker: 2.5 -175o
Stevenson: 2.5 -165o
Kupp: 2.5 -164o
Barner: 2.5 -161o
Hollins: 2.5 -129u
Boutte: 2.5 -145u
Shaheed: 1.5 -147o
QB and Receivers used to be my bread and butter for NFL player props so I'll leave it at that, for now at least.
Oh and one more thing about prop betting but this applies to all betting, all the time: stay away from one way markets. Markets where they don't have to give both sides of a line. I've talked about this before but it bears repeating with the SB in view. The DK, Fan Duels of the world love these kinds of markets and it's easy to see why. If you have to give out a two way line, you can never get too greedy with one side because then you make the other side +EV. For example, say the true price of an event is even odds. In a two way market, a book can offer -110 or -120 both sides and sleep easy. If they want to take a side, maybe they make it -105 / -115 or even +100 / -120. But they can't go past -120 because they would then be offering +105 or better on the side, giving you the best of it. (Books can and do offer +EV bets and this is why we're all here, really, but they try not to).
In a one way market, they don't have this problem. If they know the true price should be +100, they can just put up -140 or whatever and move on. And this is what they do. I have priced some of these markets and I don't think I've ever found a +EV bet. They're just drowning in juice. So always look for two way markets as a baseline. Don't even waste your time in one way markets. This is super simple stuff but I see people bet in one way markets all the time, with no thought at all.
Moving on, there's a developing story you may or may not know about. It's pretty big news here in New England but I'm not sure how mainstream it is. Drake Maye might have an injured throwing shoulder. There's all kind of videos and back and forth on X, but there's a bigger, sneakier reason I think this story might have legs. And it is this article:
Now on the surface, that article doesn't look special. But something I have learned over the years with sports reporters (and probably all reporters) and other media personalities, is that all of the big, reputable people have some sort of 'camp' that they gets their information from. It could be the players, it could be the owners/team, it could be the agents, or it could even be the training staff or people around the locker room. Maybe I'm naïve here and maybe I just didn't really think about it before, but I didn't really know this until a few years ago. Some reporters are more like 'team' reporters and while they'll fight and shout down this kind of accusation, a lot of what they report is what the team wants reported. And the same goes the other way. Some reporters are close with the players and/or agents so they'll sort of represent that side.
I say all this because the reporter who wrote the article I just linked to, Mike Reiss, is THE Patriots Team reporter. He is a Robert Kraft, The Patriots Organization mouthpeice, for lack of a better word. And if you're into this sort of thing, here is a great segment from 2024 of Mike Reiss going at it with Mike Felger, the main guy on the biggest sports talk radio show in Boston (and we take our sports talk radio seriously here, believe me). In this clip, Felger has taken issue with Reiss's reporting that the Patriots offered Brandon Ayiuk the biggest contract offer that he subsequently turned down, for some reason. They get into it and Felger calls him out for being a team mouthpeice guy. It's worth watching if you're into this shit. Also, that's a huge thing here in Boston and a good tell about which reporters are team guys which ones aren't. Every single off season, The Patriots will be 'in' on a big free agent only to have him sign elsewhere. Someone will report that The Pats or Red Sox or Bruins 'actually offered him the best deal' but he didn't take it for some reason. (That reason is almost always that they didn't actually offer him anywhere near the best deal when you really look at the offer and the wording). Those are generally the team guys.
So Reiss is a confirmed Team Guy. And now the day after the Patriots win the AFC and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl, after winning four games last year and completing an epic turnaround, Mr. Team Reporter comes out with this absolute downer of an article.
Let's look at a couple of lines in it. Again, this is the day after they beat the Broncos to go to, again, the Super Bowl.
Maye hopes for a better result for his team this time around but knows some things likely have to change on his part for that to happen.
Maye's 51.1 QBR in the playoffs is the fourth lowest of any quarterback entering the Super Bowl since 2006
The Patriots will make history if they upset the Seahawks, as no team has beaten four top-10 scoring defenses in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.
Overall, the Pats are averaging 18 points per game in the playoffs, the fourth fewest by a team entering the Super Bowl and the fewest since 1979.
Maye's physical condition also could be a factor. As part of his regular routine, Maye planned for time with team physical therapist/athletic trainer Zach Gerber, whom the signal-caller has credited for helping him endure through the physical grind of the season. Maye was sacked five times on Sunday and took other hits. One noteworthy hit came at the end of a 13-yard run late in the third quarter; on the play, Maye slid somewhat awkwardly and was tackled by safety Talanoa Hufanga, with Maye landing on his throwing shoulder.
"I think a lot of those guys in that locker room are battling through things," he said. "At the same time, the best thing about it is we have another chance at it. Another chance at it to get healthy. Two weeks -- a chance to go win the Super Bowl. That's what it is, and that's pretty cool."
Now, I'm not saying there's anything really earth shattering here. But you have to consider the source. Think of this as The Patriots talking. It's almost like they're building the excuse in beforehand. This line is interesting too now that I think about it: 'The Patriots will make history if they upset the Seahawks, as no team has beaten four top-10 scoring defenses in a single postseason, according to ESPN Research.' That isn't a stat you just come upon. Mike Reiss had to have thought about what he was looking for before he started researching that, and he had to have a reason for looking for it. Again, it's almost like Robert Kraft saying after they get blown out: "What did you expect? Our QB was hurt and did you know that no team has beaten four top 10 scoring defenses in a single postseason??" And Robert Kraft is absolutely, 100% the type of guy/owner that cares about this stuff and uses the media like this. The Patriots are famous for shit like this.
And the part that I bolded is interesting too. I didn't catch it the first time but reading it now, that's a bit of an odd way of saying that Maye saw the team trainer. Again, picture the team itself saying this. Why would the team want you know in a really subtle manner that their QB saw the team trainer, especially, as they say, its 'part of his regular routine'? How is that news?
So, again, I don't know if this is a major story, but I do think it's worth keeping an eye on. And I don't think it's at all reflected in the line since it hasn't moved much at all since it opened right after the Broncos game ended and no one could have known about the injury. It definitely isn't factored into the prop lines. With Seattle having a great defense and the nature of the SB, I'll probably have a bunch of PATS player unders anyway, so it isn't super actionable. But I do think that he is hurt more than the market knows and that alone is obviously worth something.
Lastly, I had an incredible conversation with my last man standing PPH agent the other day. It was so funny to me and this is really the only place I can share it where anyone will know what the fuck I'm talking about. So I've talked about it before but I have had one PPH account that has lasted for my entire betting career, roughly 15 years now. I lost access to everything on there except straight bets and teasers, but the account has never been shut down. I've shared this account with various different groups of sharps and have taken quite a lot of money from it over the years. I've learned why it hasn't gotten shut down too, and that has to do with the relationship between my 'agent' and the main guy taking action. My 'agent' is actually the guy pretending to own the account and he and the main guy have some of weird relationship where the main guy feels 'too proud' to shut it down and, I guess, 'admit defeat'. (Honest to god, bookies are the some of the dumbest motherfuckers I have ever met).
If/when I finally do lose this account for good, I'll talk more about it. But for now, just know that the guy I deal with who we'll call the 'agent' has been working with me since I started. He took my action first but then switched to getting me accounts for a piece of my action. He was a well respected, entrenched bookie in the area so he could get good accounts and always get paid. Worked out great for me. Anyway, a feature of this long standing account that I have is that the main guy will move lines way into arbable territory, all the time, for seemingly no reason at all. I've talked about this many times on here. But he's been doing this forever, moving lines across key numbers, sometimes moving them like a good 2 or 3 points. It's insane. And this account has massive limits. Massive for me, anyway. If my normal bet is 1 unit, the max bet is 25.
So when this guy moves a line that is arbale with Pinnacle, I'll almost always max it out and scalp out whatever I don't want on the other side at Pinny's price. For a while, like, years, these plays got crushed. For whatever reason, they just ran bad. But recently and this year especially, I have been killing it on his moved plays. And the main guy finally seems to be noticing and has been bitching about it to my agent. Why he doesn't just lower my max bet (or stop moving games) I have no idea. That would make too much sense.
But the money shot here that my agent, this guy I've been dealing with for 15+ years now and has been getting me accounts and a piece of my action all this time, said this to me recently after meeting with the main guy: "I think if you max out the game before he moves the line, that would be fine." I literally laughed out loud when I read it. He STILL, to this day, doesn't understand that I'm only betting these games because he moved the line. The concept of the market, off market lines, scalping/arbing, Pinnacle...none of it means anything to him. This guy has been a bookie for more than 20 years! This is who you're up against in the PPH world. They're dumb but they're even dumb about sports betting! And these are professional, long time, real deal bookies. This is also why the PPH world is dying off but that's a post for another time.
That's it for now, check back soon as I'll for sure have at least one other post up before Sunday.
Talk soon, bye for now!
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