Final Super Bowl Bets/Position

 Well I'm just about tapped out here dry powder/credit wise, so here is everything I have for tonight's game, whatever it's worth. The new bets are on top. 

I love these but I'm so used to being in PPH/credit land that I kind of blew my wad a little early. I would have loved to get more down but I bought a bunch more crypto this week with the huge drop (something we'll discuss later this week) so I'm a bit more illiquid at the moment than I realized. I didn't get a chance to dig into 1st downs which I usually do really well on. 

While there were more good spots available than I was even able to get to, I have to say, I didn't quite see the insanity that I normally see for SB's. Maybe it's because I used to have at least 2 or 3 (or 8 or 9) PPH skins and those are the books that really go nuts. Draft Kings and Fan Duel had plenty of offerings but lots of juice and one way markets. Plus the prop market is just so much sharper than it used to be. I guess SEA having such a dominant defense is so well known that it would be ridiculous not to see it reflected in the props markets. Back in the day though, that's really all it took. The prop market didn't really fully adjust for defenses. 

Still, plenty of good bets and honestly, a fun couple weeks of betting/capping. Hopefully we walk away in the green. I'll try to get some live bets in but I am pretty much tapped out. Anyway, good luck everyone and thanks for reading. 

Shaheed receptions u1.5 +108 .5u

Holani receptions under1.5 +116 risk .5

Hunder Henry u3.5 receptions +103 risk .75 units

Diggs under 4.5 receptions -105 .5u

Shaheed u23.5 -115 rec yards

Pats 1H +3.5 parlay u45.5 full game with odds boost. .5u to win 1.9.

Walker u21.5 rec yards -110 .5u

Hollins over 24.5 rec yards -110

SEA ML 89.25 units to win 44.7

PATS ML (futures included) 38.82u to win 86.8.

PATS -1.5 +215 2u to win 6.3.

Darnold MVP 2u to win 2.4.

And here is what I posted earlier so everything is in one place:

Maye rushing attempts vs North Carolina Womens 3 pt FG's made on 2/8: Tie +900 (risk .75u)

Same bet but Maye more rushing attempts: +200 (risk 2u)

Ohio St NCAAM team total over R. Stevenson rushing+receiving yards: +100 (risk 3u)

Texas Tech NCAAM team total over K. Walker rushing yards +105: risk 2u

Ohio St NCAAM more 3pt FG's over Nijigba receptions -120.

T. Henderson rush+receiving yards over Pascal Siakam points -110 (to win 2u)

Michigan TT over Njigba rec yards +135

J. Brown 3 pointers over Boutte receptions +130 (risk 1.5u)

Anthony Edwards P+R+A over Maye rushing yards -110 (to win 3u)

Darnold u29.5 PA -106

Darnold u1.5 TD -108 

Under 2.5 sacks for PATS -164 (to win 1.5u)

Under 3.5 sacks for SEA -132

Under 5.5 sacks total -106 (to win 2u)

Super Bowl Sunday! My Bets And More

 Well the big day is here!

I am very busy today so I'll run down what I have going so far. I will definitely be firing more bets all day, pretty much until I run out of dry powder, so be on the lookout for another post closer to game time.

But for now, here is what I have:

For the actual game, I had about 5 units to win 19 on the PATS to win the SB from futures. Most of that came right when DEN announced Bo Nix was out for the PATS/DEN matchup. I also fired on 'SEA to lose in the SB' at +480 at some point in the playoffs, which I thought was a tremendous bet. The only reason I didn't post it here was because the line actually moved a little bit against me and I thought maybe I was missing something. But anyway, it now stands a de facto PATS ML bet. So altogether, like I said, it comes out to about 5 units to win 19 on PATS ML, or +375 odds. I also fired one more unit on PATS +5 -110.

I did a really good job of being patient for these two whole weeks and waited and waited to see a juicy number on SEA. Finally, today, my PPH put up -200 on SEA ML. So I maxed that out for about 50 units (to win), and then scalped that with PATS ML at +205 on Pinnacle. I also bet 2 units on Darnold to win MVP at +120 which I think is a good way to get SEA exposure without laying too big of a price. 

Putting everything together, my position is basically a complete free roll on SEA ML, risking 0 to win 6 units with a small PATS +5 middle chance. I might tweak and trim here and there. I'd like to win at least a little but if the PATS win, so I might add on to PATS +4.5 or +3.5 at plus odds if I can find a good number. All in all though, I like my game position very much. I couldn't believe how much the line DIDN'T move for this game for the whole 2 weeks. The spread and total barely moved at all. I'll be looking close for any big boy moves today, but it looks like the market pretty much nailed this one right from the open.

Anyway, here's what I have for props so far. Everything is to win/risking 1 unit unless otherwise stated. These are mostly DK but some FD:

Maye rushing attempts vs North Carolina Womens 3 pt FG's made on 2/8: Tie +900 (risk .75u)

Same bet but Maye more rushing attempts: +200 (risk 2u)

Ohio St NCAAM team total over R. Stevenson rushing+receiving yards: +100 (risk 3u)

Texas Tech NCAAM team total over K. Walker rushing yards +105: risk 2u

Ohio St NCAAM more 3pt FG's over Nijigba receptions -120.

T. Henderson rush+receiving yards over Pascal Siakam points -110 (to win 2u)

Michigan TT over Njigba rec yards +135

J. Brown 3 pointers over Boutte receptions +130 (risk 1.5u)

Anthony Edwards P+R+A over Maye rushing yards -110 (to win 3u)

Darnold u29.5 PA -106

Darnold u1.5 TD -108 

Under 2.5 sacks for PATS -164 (to win 1.5u)

Under 3.5 sacks for SEA -132

Under 5.5 sacks total -106 (to win 2u)

Up next I'm going to work on some 3rd and 4th down conversions. If I have time I'll post the prop openers and see how they moved. Right now I am in FIRE mode though so I'm gonna lock back in. Check back throughout the day though as I will for sure have at least one more update.