Well the big day is here!
I am very busy today so I'll run down what I have going so far. I will definitely be firing more bets all day, pretty much until I run out of dry powder, so be on the lookout for another post closer to game time.
But for now, here is what I have:
For the actual game, I had about 5 units to win 19 on the PATS to win the SB from futures. Most of that came right when DEN announced Bo Nix was out for the PATS/DEN matchup. I also fired on 'SEA to lose in the SB' at +480 at some point in the playoffs, which I thought was a tremendous bet. The only reason I didn't post it here was because the line actually moved a little bit against me and I thought maybe I was missing something. But anyway, it now stands a de facto PATS ML bet. So altogether, like I said, it comes out to about 5 units to win 19 on PATS ML, or +375 odds. I also fired one more unit on PATS +5 -110.
I did a really good job of being patient for these two whole weeks and waited and waited to see a juicy number on SEA. Finally, today, my PPH put up -200 on SEA ML. So I maxed that out for about 50 units (to win), and then scalped that with PATS ML at +205 on Pinnacle. I also bet 2 units on Darnold to win MVP at +120 which I think is a good way to get SEA exposure without laying too big of a price.
Putting everything together, my position is basically a complete free roll on SEA ML, risking 0 to win 6 units with a small PATS +5 middle chance. I might tweak and trim here and there. I'd like to win at least a little but if the PATS win, so I might add on to PATS +4.5 or +3.5 at plus odds if I can find a good number. All in all though, I like my game position very much. I couldn't believe how much the line DIDN'T move for this game for the whole 2 weeks. The spread and total barely moved at all. I'll be looking close for any big boy moves today, but it looks like the market pretty much nailed this one right from the open.
Anyway, here's what I have for props so far. Everything is to win/risking 1 unit unless otherwise stated. These are mostly DK but some FD:
Maye rushing attempts vs North Carolina Womens 3 pt FG's made on 2/8: Tie +900 (risk .75u)
Same bet but Maye more rushing attempts: +200 (risk 2u)
Ohio St NCAAM team total over R. Stevenson rushing+receiving yards: +100 (risk 3u)
Texas Tech NCAAM team total over K. Walker rushing yards +105: risk 2u
Ohio St NCAAM more 3pt FG's over Nijigba receptions -120.
T. Henderson rush+receiving yards over Pascal Siakam points -110 (to win 2u)
Michigan TT over Njigba rec yards +135
J. Brown 3 pointers over Boutte receptions +130 (risk 1.5u)
Anthony Edwards P+R+A over Maye rushing yards -110 (to win 3u)
Darnold u29.5 PA -106
Darnold u1.5 TD -108
Under 2.5 sacks for PATS -164 (to win 1.5u)
Under 3.5 sacks for SEA -132
Under 5.5 sacks total -106 (to win 2u)
Up next I'm going to work on some 3rd and 4th down conversions. If I have time I'll post the prop openers and see how they moved. Right now I am in FIRE mode though so I'm gonna lock back in. Check back throughout the day though as I will for sure have at least one more update.
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