What Buying Picks From An Actual Winning Service Looks Like And More On NFL/Teasers

My last post was heavy on NFL teasers and my process for finding them. I think I covered it pretty extensively and I really can't stand when people post their picks and results AFTER the game has already happened. So we won't be doing that here. My results for the bets in my last post were decent but nothing special. Going into yesterday I had a ton of teasers that I started to make a post about but eventually bailed on. I just don't think it's all that interesting and there isn't a ton to learn from. The basic rules are always the same: never pay more than -110 for 6 point 2 teamers, always capture the 7 and the 3, and don't do them for college football. That is one thing I forgot. These only work for the NFL due to the fact that college kickers miss the extra point and teams do other goofy shit too often to make the 7 and 3 as valuable as they are in the NFL. Honestly, that's kind of it with teasers. They're a simple, automatic plug and play bet that have been profitable year after year. It always confused me as to why more people don't play these. I guess if you bet on the NFL and aren't at least dabbling in these, I don't know what else to say. If you are, then there isn't much more I can tell you that I haven't already. Look for rouge +1.5's and -8.5's when the market has them as a point or half point worse and, again, never pay more than -110. 

I had a very good teaser week this week and have a ton of NYG +7.5 going into tonight. So I'll hedge with some Sea -7.5 +237 as well as some Sea -1.5 -110, Sea -6.5 +175. Blah blah blah. We've been down this road. The reason for this post today is to discuss another topic I'm pretty knowledgable about on: buying picks. If I could convey just ONE overall message to my sports betting friends on here it would be this: do NOT pay for picks. Paying for picks is probably the single worst mistake you can make while betting. I truly do not understand the impulse for it either, but it is pervasive. Squares LOVE buying picks! I had a conversation once with someone online who genuinely thought that the only way to win was to buy picks and it was all about finding and riding the right guys. I cannot overstate this enough: paying for picks is the quickest possible way to lose money at sports. No one who wins sells picks and no one who sells picks wins. With ONE exception that we'll get into now.

I've talked about them before on here a few times, but there is one tout that is undeniably a winning service and has been for as long as I can remember, at least 15 years. They're called Right Angle Sports, or RAS for short. Back when I was doing this full time, I did my due diligence into them and found out that they were for sure legit. They track their plays against the closing line and only release widely available lines (a nasty little trick the 'smarter' touts try to pull. They release a play at a number that doesn't even exist. For example, say the market has Team X -7 -110 and it gets bet up to -7.5 -110 everywhere. The tout will release the play at -7 -110. Effectively going back in time. Everyone could beat sports betting with a time machine, even if it only goes back 5 minutes).

Anyway, I deduced that RAS was in fact a winning service and everything about them was very different from any other tout I've come across. The only mark against RAS was that their plays are almost impossible to get down on because the market moves so fast once they release something. There was also some rumors about them front running their clients, aka give out their plays to certain people a couple seconds before the official release. But even their harshest critics had to admit that they were legit, long-term winners.

Sometime around 2014, I bought a half season of WNBA plays from them for something like $1200. They're marketed towards professionals as you need to be betting at least $1k a play to make the price worth it. My experience dealing with them for that WNBA half season was unremarkable. I think I won enough to show a profit even after the $1200, but I really did it as more of a fact finding mission above all else. This was a long time ago when they were still figuring out the best way to release their plays so that everyone got a chance to get it before the market moved. I remember almost always getting a half point or 5 cents of juice worse than their official release, only because the market would move so fast and so much. If they can push an NFL side around, imagine what they can do to a WNBA total. One interesting little nugget I found out doing this though was that they were for sure front running at least a little bit. Back then they did something like a countdown to the official release. And I remember sitting there waiting for the release and after a while I noticed that two books moved on what was their official plays a good 10 seconds or so before the release. Always the same books, (I can't remember which books they were but it was something like bet365. Not one of the big guys but not a Bodog or SIA either) always the same exact time and they always were the RAS plays. So someone was definitely getting the plays before the official release, most likely someone working at the books if I had to guess. Once I figured that out though, it was easier to get down on their plays. 

I never re-upped with them as I found it too much of a headache to be worth it. I also wasn't really betting big enough to justify the high cost of the service and max betting the WNBA will get you noticed and kicked out pretty quick. However, I still always get their emails and stay on top of what they're up to from a distance. Two weeks ago I got an email saying they were giving out a free NFL play (something they do a few times a year to get more customers) and I decided to check it out. This is how it went for, again, a FREE play.

They send out an alert about an hour beforehand, saying they will be giving out a free NFL play at 11:00 AM EST. Once 11:00 comes, you click on a youtube click and it's a live video of a guy in front of his computer. They give out what they call 'a set up' which is an unofficial play. You are supposed to get the play all ready to go on your end so that all you need to do is hit confirm to put the bet in. Then they wait 30 seconds or so and then say either GO or STOP. Oftentimes, they'll give out fake plays (or a couple of fake plays in a row) for the 'set up' and then say STOP and you don't bet it. This is to stop people from betting too early and moving the market. For my example, the play the released was under 19.5 in a first half NFL game which was very much widely available. They had it as a set up for probably 30 seconds and finally said GO on the video and BAM. The market moved INSTANTLY and closed way under 19.5 (and won by a good margin, too. It was a Green Bay game either week 1 or 2. I could find out if anyone is interested).

Now remember, this was a FREE play on an NFL game, no less. The sport with the biggest, most efficient market there is. I say all this to show you how valuable a winning services' plays are, how hard they are to get down on and how much effort goes into just simply the release. A huge chunk of RAS's whole thing is the method of releasing plays, something they've tinkered with for at least a decade. If the service you use won, it would be respected by the market and their releases would look something like this. All the touts I've ever seen besides RAS do absolutely nothing like this with their releases. I've seen touts release plays with no odds!! And people who have been betting for decades following it! It SHOULD be hard to get down on the number that a winning service gets out. If it's not, that means the market doesn't respect them. And if the market doesn't respect them, they're not a winner. It really is that simple.

Anyways, that's about it for this topic. I've harped on it multiple times. Looking forward, there are a few good looking teasers for this up coming week. NYG tonight is decent but I see some action coming in on SEA, pushing it from -1.5 to -2.5 (I wonder if sharps hedging their NYG teasers had any effect on the line move?) Right now Pinnacle has the Ten/Ind game lined at Ind -1 -117 which looks like a classic 'teaser defense line'. Look to see if your book has Ind +1.5 and maybe get in light on them with a teaser. Same thing with Hou/Atl, which is currently Atl -1 -110. Again, look for Hou +1.5 to tease. New Orleans is a flat +1.5 everywhere, same with the Jets. Pinnacle is putting up two MORE 'teaser defense' lines too with Car/Det and GB/LV. Pinny has Det at -10 +107 right now which is exactly what I was talking about with looking ahead for rouge teaserable lines. If you can find Det at -8.5, that's a great leg to start building up a position. Same with LV. Right now Pinnacle is at GB -1 -123 instead of putting up a flat 2.5. Lots of books have LV at +2 or +2.5 right now and that's a great one to include. Its the Monday night game too so you can put that in a lot of different small teasers and hedge with GB come Monday night if they're still alive.

Check back soon, I'll have a crypto and stocks post coming and I'll try to do more frequent, smaller posts like this during the NFL season. Bye for now!