Pick Results

Results from last post:

Thomas Harley u1.5 +130 L

Esa Lindell u2.5 +110 L

Darnell Nurse u2.5 -188 W

John Carlson u1.5 -120 L

T. Van Riemsdyk u1.5 +120 W

Mike Matheson u2.5 -168 W

3-3 for exactly 0 units won/lost. Puts us at -.42 units total after 12 plays.

I was thinking today about how the Playoffs in particular effect (affect? I don't know why but I'm retarded when it comes to knowing when to use effect vs affect) blocked shots. I looked at the same 3 full seasons of regular seasons vs playoffs from a couple years ago and what I found was fairly interesting. Blocks go up a decent amount during the playoffs, a lot more than I would have thought. It's more than 10%. Also, for the playoffs, Corsi, Fenwick and Shots per game AND per minute are higher (and, interestingly, I think, the difference between Corsi per game and Fenwick per game is higher). However, Goals per game and per minute are slightly lower. So it would appear that there are more events during a playoff game, but less goals. That means more misses, saves, and blocks. The e/affect isn't huge, about 5 more attempts each game, total, but it isn't nothing. So that means at the very least, I'll pass on really close under bets and be more likely to fire on close over bets. 

I'll probably have some more picks up in the next couple of days. I've been tinkering with a new model for Shots per game, simplifying my old one. The tricky part for me is always ice time, power play and otherwise. I was comforted recently when I read a throwaway line in Ed Millers book 'Interception' that I talked about on here briefly. He said something like 'when you're capping props, it always comes down to how accurately you can predict minutes.' Same with football. Getting a good number on pass or rush attempts is always the trickiest part.

That's it for today, although slight chance I'll have some picks up here in a couple hours. I do have a little bit of time for myself today. Check back soon, bye for now!