New Model And Picks For Tonight

I just finished up a brand new model for NHL Shots On Goal. I did things a little differently than normal with this model so I'm going to consider this a Beta Test and count tonights plays as half units. I really like this model, I came up with expected TOI for Even Strength and PP in a much different way than before. I'm also using Shots instead of Corsi converted back into Shots. Corsi to Shot percentage was something I thought would give me an edge in my old models but it never really did. I used to think I'd find guys running good or bad with getting their shots through, and sometimes I did. But ice-time, line mates and opposition are bigger deals. Plus, with a full seasons worth of sample size, the differences in Corsi, Fenwick and Shots really goes down. That was always the bulkiest, most time consuming part of the model too, so this one is more streamlined without losing any edge. Should let me to get in more plays in the future. At least, that's how the thinking goes. I'm also way more aware of the effect that Playoffs have in general. It sounds stupid but I never really officially looked into it before. Like I said in my last post, all events except goals go up in the playoffs, including Shots. And it's not just because OT is more likely. They go up per minute as well as per game.

Anyway, on to the picks. We're at -.42 units after 12 plays so far, all of them being Blocks. Definitely running a little bad on what I posted here as I'm up a good amount so far on Blocks. To me it's all NHL Player Props so we'll count 'em all together.

I only had the time and the dry powder for one game tonight, OTT vs TOR, which isn't ideal. And as you're going to see, they're all overs. Normally this would be a giant red flag, but I really looked into everything and feel pretty good about these picks. Both teams take more penalties than average and OTT draws a lot more than the average team. So we should see lots of special teams and could easily see 4 periods or more of hockey with 3 of the 4 games this series so far going into OT.

So here they are. All for half a unit unless otherwise stated. 

Chabot o1.5 -162

J Sanderson o2.5 +140

Brady Tkachuk o3.5 -130

Bobby Mcmann o1.5 -135 (this one is for 1 unit. I hope I'm not missing anything here but this line was way off, according to my model)

Marner o1.5 -154

Tavares o2.5 +105

Nylander o2.5 -142

Again, all overs, lots of chalk. Weird feeling. Part of me hates it, part of me loves it. Feels like it's going to be a really good or a really bad slate.

Check back tomorrow, good luck us!