NFL Week 15 Betting Recap And Big Look Ahead At Week 16

 I had another phenomenal week betting NFL in Week 15. My second best week of the year, behind only the one I had 2 weeks ago. I made back everything I lost last week plus a good 10 units, PLUS I have tons of teaser legs pending going into this week. I have absolutley torched teasers this year. I'm on pace to have my best teaser year of all time, including when I was full time. Really dissecting and figuring out the most optimal way to play these this year has been a goldmine. I'm defintely running good but clearly I was way too loose with them in the past as well. Having Fan Duel as the other side of a lot of these teasers has been great, too, as they usually have the best dog money lines on the board. My only worry at this point is losing my PPH which, to be honest, I'm actually a little surprised hasn't happened yet. 

Anyway, I figured I would do a little recap here but mostly do a look ahead as I have quite a few interesting spots brewing. With lots of stand alone games coming up (with low totals), this week looks like another juicy one for teasers.

The PHI/LAC game that I talked a lot about last recap landed nearly perfectly with LAC winning by 3. PHI winning by 3 would have been better, but this was the second best outcome. A great start to the week.

The best play of the week last week was on the WASH/NYG game. I had NYG teased to +8.5 from the prior week, and the line moved from WASH -2 to WASH +2.5 (this was pure luck but it's one reason I love doing Wong's super early. Sometimes you get a line move like this where you'll just be drowning in equity. You're just as likely to have the line move against you as you are with you, but when it happens like this it's boner-incuding). So I had NYG +8.5 as the last leg of a huge teaser, so now I needed to hedge on WASH. I teased them up to +8.5 for some but also got a bunch of WASH -6.5 and -7.5. Lo and behold, WASH wins by 8! Absolutely binking the FUCK out of everything. 

CHI teased to -1.5 was never in doubt. PATS covered +8.5 and my BUF -2.5 and -3.5 hedges hit. DEN +7.5 won outright. I had a huge NO +8.5, CAR -2.5 half middle (I had way more on NO +8.5) that was thiiiis close to binking perfectly. I pulled PIT from a heavy -3 to +3.5 that was never in doubt too for the MNF game.

All in all a tremendous week.

Looking ahead, there are a lot of good spots this week.

For one, the game tonight is a clear Wong. I have LAR +7.5 hedged with a little bit of SEA ML, -1.5, -6.5 and -7.5 at +280ish from earlier in the week.

The two games on Saturday are Wongable as well, though no true Wongs. You can tease PHI down to either -1.5 or -.5 and either middle with WASH +7 or go for the free money scalp with WASH ML at +280ish.

I've managed to tease both sides of GB/CHI as this line has bounced around through the zero a bit. I actually got in a little bit bad on this one as I have GB -3 teased to GB +3.5. I made this bet before Parsons went down. I jumped on teasing CHI +1.5 to +7.5 and took a little bit more of GB teased to +7.5. So this is another game where if it's decided by less than a TD, I clean up. But if it's more than a TD, I lose a fair amount. So not great, actually. I'll be adding more to this game though as it gets closer as I have seen some juicy alt-lines.

I have NO teased from a heavy -3 to +3.5. This is another game where the line movement went my way. I needed a 6.5 point leg from last week and my book had NO -3 -125 where everywhere else had NO -3.5. So now I have NO +3.5 for a big amount and the line is now NO -5.5 with a nice and low total of 40. This gives me all kinds of options for the hedge/middle: I can fire on NYJ ML at +180, I can bet NYJ at -2.5 and even -3.5 at huge plus odds. If I really want to get nuts, I could fire NYJ +7.5 if I find an off market number somewhere for the mega middle. I'll probably do a little bit of everything. You throw an odds boost or free play into any of this and the equity is off the charts.

I made something of a 'big brain correlated parlay' last week that I had never thought of before. Maybe this is obvious but it wasn't to me at the time. I needed to bet on BUF last week as a hedge against my PATS teasers and I had an idea. My PPH always does look ahead lines, so they have nearly a full slate of next weeks games up before this current week even starts. So instead of just betting BUF ML normally, I parlayed them with the look ahead line of BAL -1.5 against the PATS (the game this week). My thinking was that if BUF beats the PATS, the line on the BAL/PATS game will probably move against the PATS. And that is exactly what happened. So now I have BAL -1.5 when the line is currently BAL -3 -115ish. I don't know if that whole line move was due to only the PATS losing (and BAL looking good), but there isn't any big injury news that I'm aware of. So this might be a good sneaky idea to add in on some of the smaller hedges. Parlays always look square too so that's a huge bonus.

One thing I always look for when I'm looking at a new slate of NFL games is the totals. I look for anything extreme: any games with super high or low totals. Any total in the 30's or under 41.5 I would consider low, and anything in the 50's I would consider high. Games with low totals will obviously have less scoring, which means the value of every point is higher than normal. (The inverse is true with high totals). This is something to always keep in mind in general, but especially with teasers and buying/selling points and hedging and middling. That being said, there are three games this week with official 'low totals.' NYJ/NO, LV/HOU and KC/TEN. (BUF/CLE is low too). So there might be a couple possible non-standard teaser opportunities on these games. I talked about NYJ/NO already, but you might be able to tease KC from -3 to +3.5 profitably, or at least as a filler leg. Same with NYJ teased to +10.5. There isn't a whole lot you can do on the LV/HOU game with the 14 point spread, but if you can get decent numbers with some sort of odds boost, you could look to middle the 14 in that game, or go for a full game or first half correlated parlay. The games with high totals would be LAC/DAL and PIT/DET. LAC is a clear Wong with the line being LAC +2, but with the high total I won't fire too much on this game. Also, with games like these with the high total, I usually won't go for any kind of middle at all. With my LAC +7.5 teasers, if I hedge at all I'll probably just do DAL -7.5, assuming I can get it at +270 or better. The lower the total, the more of a middle I'll usually do with my hedges. Another sneaky little thing I like to do with teasers with high totals is a polish middle. Say I have LAC teased to +7.5. Instead of hedging at DAL -7.5 +270, I might do DAL -9.5 at +330 (or whatever the odds are). It's a bit heart-attackish and I wouldn't do that for big money, but high totals = high variance, so that is the time to do it.

In other news, there was a murder of an MIT scientist that you may have heard of. I think it might have something to do with the missing plane we've been discussing on here a little bit. I'll get into that next time though. Until then, thanks for reading and check back soon!

BTC price: $85k

BTC marketcap: $1.7 T

Total crypto marketcap: $2.87 T

BTC dominance (including stables): 59.2%

ETH dominance (including stables): 11.8%

Total cryptos on coin market cap: 8.47 M

Nick Fuentes And The End Of The Spell

 Nick Fuentes has been a rapidly rising star in the online 'alt-right' ecosystem lately. I say 'alt-right' but it's more like just 'the right' these days, isn't it? Tucker Carlson interviewed him a few weeks ago and it was a bit of a boring, softball interview that didn't make much news, besides the fact that Tucker had him on at all. Nick was on Piers Morgan a couple nights ago and it was a much more combative interview and has been making quite a bit of news. So I thought I would touch on Nick and more broadly, why I think he's become popular and what it means.

If you don't know, Nick Fuentes is a young Gen-Z influencer on the right. He was one of the first 'cancelled' guys ever. He's been de-banked, 'de-credit carded', thrown off of every single social media site except for Rumble (X recently let him back on but won't checkmark him), kicked out of Boston University, and even had someone try to assassinate him (the would-be assassin ended up getting shot to death in the act). He's been in the online trenches for a while but he sort of burst onto the mainstream on January 6th when he was at the capitol making speeches. I'm not going to give you a whole background of Nick Fuentes. If you're here, you probably know as much about him as I do, which is whatever is on youtube and X. 

His interview with Piers was really good and interesting, definitely worth watching. But there was one moment really early on that I found most interesting and which has the most implications. 

It was obvious from the start what Piers' strategy was. The 'matrix's' view of Nick is that he sort of plays both sides. He's bombastic and super edgy with his followers and on live streams, but tones it down a little bit in more mainstream, formal interviews, and this is why he has any following at all. The 'boomer-left-center' coalition thought this was some sort of chink in his armor, a crack in the foundation they could exploit. Piers thought he would get the toned down, genteel version of Nick and then hit him with his 'worst' clips from his streams and make him either defend/explain the 'un-defendable' (in their eyes) or, more likely, squirm out of or back away from them. The 'look, they're just jokes' cop out. 

So Piers hits him pretty early on with a clip of Fuentes saying 'yes I am a racist' and asks Nick if he'd like to defend that remark. You can see it in Piers eyes that he thought he had him dead to rights here. And Nick just says 'Yes, I agree with myself, I am racist.' And Piers did the shocked Pikachu face. 

'Oh so you're just saying you're racist?'

'Yes.'

'So you openly admit that you're racist?'

'Yes.'

'You just admitted to the world that you're a racist, Nick, correct?'

'Yes.'

The bulk of the interview went like that. 

'So you don't think women should be able to vote? Really? You're a misogynist?

'Yes.'

Piers really didn't have a whole lot more than that. He made fun of Nick for being a virgin and never being in love which wasn't exactly the home run that I think he thought it was.

But I just thought that exchange was so illuminating because it goes to show how much all of this nonsense is self-inflicted. Their power only extends for as far as you let it. The struggle sessions, the groveling apologies that never get accepted anyways, the cancellations, that shit is all over, because there was never anything backing it up anyway. It was a self inflicted spell we were under. Like one of those weirdo, old timey monk-priests who self flagellate themselves, the only pain comes from the self. Remember that bizarro 15 minute video of the little indie-musician girl apologizing with the ukelele song? She got more backlash for the apology than anything else. 

We have been taught our entire lives that being 'racist' is the worst possible thing you can be. Shoved down out throats at every turn, screeched into our ears: 'diversity is our strength!' 'We're a melting pot!' 'Immigrants built this country!' A wall of angry, bored wine moms with an axe to grind. A tornado of HR ladies looking to jump on a quick zoom call. Bad faith bureaucrats blowing in the wind, parroting whatever they think their most obnoxious Twitter followers want them to. It's like the entire world turned into the worst female middle school teacher you ever had, and for whatever reason, it worked! For like, 30 years! Being considered a racist was about as bad for you socially as just about anything else you can think of. Chris Brown beat the shit of Rhianna, very publicly, and I'm sure Bank of America would happily give him a bank account. He has a blue checkmark. But if you dare say 'ya know, black people sure do commit a lot of crime', or 'I care about Jews and Israel the same amount as they care about me and America' and you are essentially turned into a non-person. This has been the deal for about as long as I can remember.

So for finally a guy sort of in the mainstream, up and coming, to just look straight into the camera and say 'yes' when asked if he stands by his statements that he is a racist (and thinks 'Hitler is cool'), is truly a revolutionary act. It's the first step of many of breaking the spell. 

Now for the record, I don't agree with Nick on everything. And what we're talking about when we say 'racist' here probably isn't what you're thinking and you don't need to at all think that 'Hitler was cool' to get what I'm saying here. 

The main point here, the reason why I wanted to talk about this at all, is just the breaking of the spell. The slight lifting of the fog.

White people, White men especially, have been beaten the fuck down for most of my life, and if I was 15 years younger, it would have been for my entire life. In government, in business, on TV, on every single fucking commercial that exists, in every movie, in art (how many art pieces have you seen mocking Jesus or Christianity? Have you ever seen one mocking any other religious figure? You make one about Islam and you will literally get your head chopped off and have the Pope defend the killers!) It is so ingrained that you don't even notice it anymore. It's just baked into everything. A black person can say 'I think we should kill all White people' to a nodding White person like they're ordering breakfast. Steven Colbert, Anderson Cooper and Joe Biden can say 'Whites will be a minority in America soon and that's exciting!" to absolutely no pushback whatsoever. Somehow, every single writer of ever single article or caption or subtitle or substack all got the memo, at the same time, that they should always capitalize the B in Black but never capitalize the W in White, even when it's in a headline.

I'm not going to go on and on with this point. I've made more than a couple posts now doing just that and looking at the population numbers and the data and whatnot. We are being erased and they aren't even hiding it anymore. They brag about it! 

And the worst part of all it is that it is such an own-goal. It is so unnecessary and evil, to say nothing of the fact that it is entirely baseless. 

This is the official beginning of the end of the 'Post WWII consensus', in my view anyway. You may say the ascent of Donald Trump was the real start to the end, and you may be right, but this is kicking it into another gear. 

After World War 2, 'The blame for the destruction of the World Wars was placed at the feet of nationalistic fervor and loyalty. The strong love that people feel for their own family, kin, and people, stirred to ambition and greatness by natural leaders among them (i.e., demagogues), must be tamped down and deconstructed. From hence forth, nationalism would be tied to fascism, Nazism, and populist authoritarianism. The only reasonable option open to a freedom-loving people was a politically and economically open global society." 

This has largely been the case for nearly 80 years now. One thing this coalition cannot let stand is proud White people. Twenty or more White men gathering? Can't have it! Your God, your leaders, your countries founding fathers, your art, your statues, your history, your culture, your ideas, you, it's all bad and you should be ashamed. So ashamed that we're going to replace you in your own country and if you even notice it, you're bad too. It's honestly amazing that this ever worked at all when you think about it.

So to have this little smiling, calm, Gen Z, self admitted incel virgin, look straight down the barrel of an ABC camera and say "Yea I am racist" with no caveats, no explaining, no back pedaling, no apologizing, no groveling, it's a sign. Whatever credit this Post War Consensus had been banking on has officially run dry. 

And look, you don't have to agree with Nick or with me here on everything to be on board. You just have to stop putting the puck into your own net.

We are not sorry nor are we ashamed, and we're done pretending otherwise. And we don't give a fuck what anyone thinks about it.

NFL Week 14 Betting Recap, A Look Ahead Plus Fanduel VS Draft Kings

 Right on cue, a red week. I knew it was coming. Lost a cool 20 units last week, however it wasn't nearly as bad as it seems because I have so many pending teasers rolled over onto this week. So I have a massive position on tonights game, plus I got in really good on getting NYG at +8.5 and they're now at -2. So I'll be able to Wong both sides of the NYG/WASH game. 

I'll do a quick recap of the betting, outline my position for tonight and then a look ahead into next week plus some more stuff.

As I said in my last post, this week was a YUGE one for Wongs. The MNF game started us off with a nice little win with the PATS blowing out NYG. Then we had quite a few interesting spots in the 1:00 slate. I built up a nice position all week on SEA/ATL. I was sniping ATL money line at +270 all the way up to +320 early in the week. I waited quite patiently for SEA to drop from -7 to -6.5 on my PPH and did a classic 'SEA teased to -.5, ATL money line hedge', effectively giving me SEA moneyline at like -140 odds. That worked out nicely.

I did an old school 'Bill The Cop' teaser with TEN going from +4.5 to +10.5. Again, using Pinnys alt lines as a guide, that bet is a lot better than I would have thought at first. It's right around break even and with the super low total I think it was +EV. It was really just a filler leg for me but when conditions are perfect, those might be decent ones to throw in.

I had NYJ +8.5 from the prior week which I let ride which lost. I had JAX +8.5 for small amounts.

The biggest position for me for the 1:00 clockers though was on the TB/NO game. TB was moving between -8 and -9 all week, so I was able to selectively tease them down to -2.5 a few times. I got a REALLY good number on NO moneyline from FanDuel, so I had a massive 'TB-2.5, NO money line' play. I added in some NO +3.5 at a good number, too. So if TB won by 3, I would have won something like 40 units. It was close too! NO pulled it out in a nail biter so it was fine, but would have been much better if TB won. Did you see any of that games highlights, by the way? TB dropped like 3 sure touchdowns late in the game, plus a bunch of weird turn overs. Oh well.

I had quite a big blunder on the WASH/MIN game. I jumped on WASH +8.5 early in the week for a decent amount. Come Sunday, I see the line moved through the zero and now I was able to bet MIN +7.5. One of my favorite spots in betting, getting both teams in a Wong teaser. The only problem was that both teams were my first legs. So I went big on WASH +8.5 and even bigger on MIN +7.5. It was a good spot, definitely +EV, but I sprayed too much. If that game stayed inside of a TD either way I would have absolutely cleaned up, but the inverse was true. If either team won by more than 8, I would take quite a bath, and quite a bath I ended up taking. Down a good 7 units on this game alone.

The afternoon slate was great. I had all 3 favorites teased down to between -.5 to -2.5 and had some +7.5 for the hedges. LV somehow covered +7.5 with a walk off FG to be down 7. Love it when that happens. (By the way, I saw the Dave Portnoys of the world lose their minds over this. That is Square City. You should really almost never have a team at -7.5. There are just so many other better ways to bet a -7.5 favorite. Doing a teaser like I do is the most obvious one, but you can usually find a way to buy through the 7 profitably with enough line/book shopping. I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I don't think I've ever bet a team naked at -7.5).

Teasing SEA and GB both down to -.5 and then hedging with the opponent money line was the big brain play of the day for me. Both were different time slots and I was able to get really good money line numbers on both opponents at FanDuel, plus a little bit of +7.5 on both. Quite literally free money.

Speaking of FanDuel, this was my first real week using them and I have some thoughts. Number one, the app is bad, borderline terrible. It's 'sticky' feeling, like you have to wait a second after clicking anything. The color scheme is god awful, all wishy washy blues and blacks. The betting history is hard to read. The promos are decent, similar to DK except for one glaring issue: they're mostly $25 max where DK is usually $100 max. $25 max is barely usable. The good thing though is that their money lines on dogs are almost always the best number on the board, or at least close to it. I've found a couple other small exploits on there too that I don't want to talk about just yet. Nothing major. All in all it's for sure worth having but a clear step below DK for usability.

Even though it was a down week, I have so much teaser equity going into this week that I would consider it a good week. The Monday Night game, tonight, is PHI at LAC. PHI was a heavy -2.5, light -3 early in the week, so for a lot of my 3 team teasers, I put PHI +3.5 as my last leg. As the week progressed and the line moved to PHI -2, I switched to LAC +8 and +8.5. And I did put them in probably close to half of all my teasers. So I have a massive middle on the game tonight with PHI +3.5 and LAC +8.5. With free bets and odds boosts I've added more, mostly PHI money line. 

If PHI wins by 9 or more I win 9 units.

If LAC win by 4 or more I win 13 units.

If PHI wins by 1-6 I win 20ish units.

If PHI wins by exactly 7, or if either team wins by 3, I scoop just about everything for over 50 units.

Hoping for a close game tonight, as you can see.

Looking ahead, I see A LOT of good Wong spots for week 15. Except for the Thursday night game, the Arz/Hou game and the 3 games lined at 13, every other single game is Wongable in some fashion. Lots of +1, +1.5s, so that is certainly something to keep an eye on all week. A lot of low totals, too. This could be a holy grail type of week for Wongs, so be on the lookout for another post before Sunday. Perhaps. But I'm jumping on some of these early, for sure.

In other news, there was another 'search' for the MH370 plane the other day. Pretty odd actually, it's been radio silence for almost a decade now and then all in one month we get the Ashton Forbes stuff and then this new 'search'. Weird timing. There's a lot more to discuss with the plane, too. People are really starting to look at the videos in a new light and are starting to actually kind of figure out what happened. Or at least what they think happened, of course. It's pretty insane. That will probably be my next post; more on the missing plane. There really is a lot more to get into.

That's it for today. Do you guys care about these recap posts? I can't tell. I suppose it's better than nothing but it really is the same thing every week. Wong teasers and hedging and middling. I'll probably keep them going but this missing plane is the big thing on my mind right now.

Check back soon and thanks for reading!

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap And A Look Ahead

 Another solid week in the books. Four green weeks in a row and 6 of the last 7 weeks have been green. And with a bunch of pending teaser equity going into this week, I think we can safely say we are running good. It's been nice wrapping things up here every week, too. I think I would have been more easily discouraged around mid October when I was basically breaking even week after week. I wouldn't have thrown in the towel but I probably would have toned it all down at least. But writing it all out and going over everything, it's clear that I was just running bad for a month or so. Now I seem to be on the other side of it. 

So let's dig in, shall we?

The week started off with SF blowing out CAR on Monday Night. If you remember from my last post, I had a big position on that game and even though SF covering 7.5 was the second worst outcome, it still netted me a cool 16ish units. I had BAL teased down to -.5 and -1.5 as the last leg of a few teasers from last week left over which all lost. I hedged out pretty evenly though with CIN money line so that was ok.

The biggest position of the week though was on the NYJ/ATL game. I had NYJ +8.5 as the second leg of a big teaser, so I logged on Sunday morning looking for the best possible number on ATL. And what do you know, my infamous PPH account put up ATL -1 -115 and -120 money line! The market was mostly ATL -3 and -170ish ML. Another one of those times when this PPH account moves a random game WAY into arbable territory and wins! (That was the reason for my quick update post yesterday. I've talked before about how this account moves spreads and totals on games like this, again WAY into arbable territory, and almost always wins. It's like he knows something and baits me into these plays. With the game going into OT it clearly could have gone either way and I'm not at all suggesting this guy "knew something" about this game, but it's just funny how things work.)

Anyway, this account takes a beefy 50 units max bet, so I maxed out ATL both on the spread and ML, and even added in a couple parlays with ATL money line for good measure. I scalped out as much as I wanted so that I locked in profit no matter what. I scalped with mostly NYJ money line, but I also took some +1, +3, +3.5, and I had the +8.5 teaser still live. So if ATL had won by 8 or less it would have been unreal, and if they won by exactly 3 it would have been perfect. SO close! But can't complain about a free roll and I locked up a good 7ish units anyway, completely risk free.

The only other note-worthy play was on the Sunday Night game. I had DEN teased down to PK as the last leg of a bunch of my teasers. I scalped that out with mostly WASH +7.5 and +6.5 which all cashed. I got a little too cute and also hedged with WASH -2.5 instead of the normal +3.5. This game actually had my potential nightmare scenario play out with WASH scoring a TD to go down by 1 and going for two and missing it to lose by exactly 1. DEN was mostly -6 so I had them teased down to a PK and not -1.5, but that is what it would look like. Scary!

I almost exactly broke even live betting which was disappointing. Plenty of middle and scalp opportunities still but it's easy to fuck them up. You gotta fire so fast and everything is constantly moving, so sometimes you get a real good middle or scalp lined up and it vanishes before you can hit both sides. That happened to me twice and I had to lock in a couple small losses. I'm still somewhat figuring out live betting and my set up is not optimized for it (I only have one screen currently. I used to have 3 which is awesome and really the only way to go if you bet/trade like me. And oftentimes I have my daughter on my lap on Sundays so we need a window open for kids youtube videos too.) 

I opened a FanDuel account recently. Actually not really sure why I didn't do that earlier. According to my odds screens, they seem to have the best number on big NFL dog money lines pretty consistently so this should be a good addition to my overall strategy. I already have my whole balance in play, mostly on NYG money line at +300. I have about 4 other units at risk on NYG ML at Draft Kings at about +380 with various odds boosts. Those are all hedges against my main play which is PATS teased down to -1.5 and -.5. 

So if PATS win by 8 or more I win about 9 units, if NYG win outright I win about 3 units. If PATS win by 4-8 I win about 11 units, and if they win by 2 or 3 I win about 20 units. Only nightmare scenario is PATS winning by exactly one. Then I would lose 6 units. 

Looking ahead, it looks like a nice and juicy week for Wongs. On top of the PATS tonight, you have SEA, NYJ, maybe TB, JAX, MIN, DEN and LAR all as Wongable games right now. If you really wanted to get nuts, you could throw in DET as a -3 to +3.5 through the zero screwball teaser. You could also get in on some TEN action if you really want to get crazy. They're mostly +3.5 -115 but a few books have them at +4 -120 for some reason. If you need a leg for a 6.5 point teaser, getting them at +10.5 is probably at least close to break-even. Depends on how the market moves this week. 

My idea/play for the week/tonight is fairly standard now if you've been a regular reader here. Tease PATS down to -1.5 and/or -.5. Depends on your book and the odds and the rule on pushes for how you want to handle having them at -1.5. Then scalp out whatever you don't want at risk on NYG money line. +290 is widely available now and FD has +300. Draft Kings had +320 for most of last week and like I said, with various promos and odds boost they give out, I was able to get down about 4 units at about +380. So I basically have a 'synthetic' money line bet on the PATS with a small +7.5 and +3.5 NYG middle opportunity with the nightmare PATS winning by exactly 1 scenario live. Gotta keep things spicy!

I'll have a crypto post up soon as there are a few things I want to touch on. I will also for sure have more on the missing plane video and more on aliens coming up too. Some political/culture war stuff too. Check back soon!