Another solid week in the books. Four green weeks in a row and 6 of the last 7 weeks have been green. And with a bunch of pending teaser equity going into this week, I think we can safely say we are running good. It's been nice wrapping things up here every week, too. I think I would have been more easily discouraged around mid October when I was basically breaking even week after week. I wouldn't have thrown in the towel but I probably would have toned it all down at least. But writing it all out and going over everything, it's clear that I was just running bad for a month or so. Now I seem to be on the other side of it.
So let's dig in, shall we?
The week started off with SF blowing out CAR on Monday Night. If you remember from my last post, I had a big position on that game and even though SF covering 7.5 was the second worst outcome, it still netted me a cool 16ish units. I had BAL teased down to -.5 and -1.5 as the last leg of a few teasers from last week left over which all lost. I hedged out pretty evenly though with CIN money line so that was ok.
The biggest position of the week though was on the NYJ/ATL game. I had NYJ +8.5 as the second leg of a big teaser, so I logged on Sunday morning looking for the best possible number on ATL. And what do you know, my infamous PPH account put up ATL -1 -115 and -120 money line! The market was mostly ATL -3 and -170ish ML. Another one of those times when this PPH account moves a random game WAY into arbable territory and wins! (That was the reason for my quick update post yesterday. I've talked before about how this account moves spreads and totals on games like this, again WAY into arbable territory, and almost always wins. It's like he knows something and baits me into these plays. With the game going into OT it clearly could have gone either way and I'm not at all suggesting this guy "knew something" about this game, but it's just funny how things work.)
Anyway, this account takes a beefy 50 units max bet, so I maxed out ATL both on the spread and ML, and even added in a couple parlays with ATL money line for good measure. I scalped out as much as I wanted so that I locked in profit no matter what. I scalped with mostly NYJ money line, but I also took some +1, +3, +3.5, and I had the +8.5 teaser still live. So if ATL had won by 8 or less it would have been unreal, and if they won by exactly 3 it would have been perfect. SO close! But can't complain about a free roll and I locked up a good 7ish units anyway, completely risk free.
The only other note-worthy play was on the Sunday Night game. I had DEN teased down to PK as the last leg of a bunch of my teasers. I scalped that out with mostly WASH +7.5 and +6.5 which all cashed. I got a little too cute and also hedged with WASH -2.5 instead of the normal +3.5. This game actually had my potential nightmare scenario play out with WASH scoring a TD to go down by 1 and going for two and missing it to lose by exactly 1. DEN was mostly -6 so I had them teased down to a PK and not -1.5, but that is what it would look like. Scary!
I almost exactly broke even live betting which was disappointing. Plenty of middle and scalp opportunities still but it's easy to fuck them up. You gotta fire so fast and everything is constantly moving, so sometimes you get a real good middle or scalp lined up and it vanishes before you can hit both sides. That happened to me twice and I had to lock in a couple small losses. I'm still somewhat figuring out live betting and my set up is not optimized for it (I only have one screen currently. I used to have 3 which is awesome and really the only way to go if you bet/trade like me. And oftentimes I have my daughter on my lap on Sundays so we need a window open for kids youtube videos too.)
I opened a FanDuel account recently. Actually not really sure why I didn't do that earlier. According to my odds screens, they seem to have the best number on big NFL dog money lines pretty consistently so this should be a good addition to my overall strategy. I already have my whole balance in play, mostly on NYG money line at +300. I have about 4 other units at risk on NYG ML at Draft Kings at about +380 with various odds boosts. Those are all hedges against my main play which is PATS teased down to -1.5 and -.5.
So if PATS win by 8 or more I win about 9 units, if NYG win outright I win about 3 units. If PATS win by 4-8 I win about 11 units, and if they win by 2 or 3 I win about 20 units. Only nightmare scenario is PATS winning by exactly one. Then I would lose 6 units.
Looking ahead, it looks like a nice and juicy week for Wongs. On top of the PATS tonight, you have SEA, NYJ, maybe TB, JAX, MIN, DEN and LAR all as Wongable games right now. If you really wanted to get nuts, you could throw in DET as a -3 to +3.5 through the zero screwball teaser. You could also get in on some TEN action if you really want to get crazy. They're mostly +3.5 -115 but a few books have them at +4 -120 for some reason. If you need a leg for a 6.5 point teaser, getting them at +10.5 is probably at least close to break-even. Depends on how the market moves this week.
My idea/play for the week/tonight is fairly standard now if you've been a regular reader here. Tease PATS down to -1.5 and/or -.5. Depends on your book and the odds and the rule on pushes for how you want to handle having them at -1.5. Then scalp out whatever you don't want at risk on NYG money line. +290 is widely available now and FD has +300. Draft Kings had +320 for most of last week and like I said, with various promos and odds boost they give out, I was able to get down about 4 units at about +380. So I basically have a 'synthetic' money line bet on the PATS with a small +7.5 and +3.5 NYG middle opportunity with the nightmare PATS winning by exactly 1 scenario live. Gotta keep things spicy!
I'll have a crypto post up soon as there are a few things I want to touch on. I will also for sure have more on the missing plane video and more on aliens coming up too. Some political/culture war stuff too. Check back soon!
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