Right on cue, a red week. I knew it was coming. Lost a cool 20 units last week, however it wasn't nearly as bad as it seems because I have so many pending teasers rolled over onto this week. So I have a massive position on tonights game, plus I got in really good on getting NYG at +8.5 and they're now at -2. So I'll be able to Wong both sides of the NYG/WASH game.
I'll do a quick recap of the betting, outline my position for tonight and then a look ahead into next week plus some more stuff.
As I said in my last post, this week was a YUGE one for Wongs. The MNF game started us off with a nice little win with the PATS blowing out NYG. Then we had quite a few interesting spots in the 1:00 slate. I built up a nice position all week on SEA/ATL. I was sniping ATL money line at +270 all the way up to +320 early in the week. I waited quite patiently for SEA to drop from -7 to -6.5 on my PPH and did a classic 'SEA teased to -.5, ATL money line hedge', effectively giving me SEA moneyline at like -140 odds. That worked out nicely.
I did an old school 'Bill The Cop' teaser with TEN going from +4.5 to +10.5. Again, using Pinnys alt lines as a guide, that bet is a lot better than I would have thought at first. It's right around break even and with the super low total I think it was +EV. It was really just a filler leg for me but when conditions are perfect, those might be decent ones to throw in.
I had NYJ +8.5 from the prior week which I let ride which lost. I had JAX +8.5 for small amounts.
The biggest position for me for the 1:00 clockers though was on the TB/NO game. TB was moving between -8 and -9 all week, so I was able to selectively tease them down to -2.5 a few times. I got a REALLY good number on NO moneyline from FanDuel, so I had a massive 'TB-2.5, NO money line' play. I added in some NO +3.5 at a good number, too. So if TB won by 3, I would have won something like 40 units. It was close too! NO pulled it out in a nail biter so it was fine, but would have been much better if TB won. Did you see any of that games highlights, by the way? TB dropped like 3 sure touchdowns late in the game, plus a bunch of weird turn overs. Oh well.
I had quite a big blunder on the WASH/MIN game. I jumped on WASH +8.5 early in the week for a decent amount. Come Sunday, I see the line moved through the zero and now I was able to bet MIN +7.5. One of my favorite spots in betting, getting both teams in a Wong teaser. The only problem was that both teams were my first legs. So I went big on WASH +8.5 and even bigger on MIN +7.5. It was a good spot, definitely +EV, but I sprayed too much. If that game stayed inside of a TD either way I would have absolutely cleaned up, but the inverse was true. If either team won by more than 8, I would take quite a bath, and quite a bath I ended up taking. Down a good 7 units on this game alone.
The afternoon slate was great. I had all 3 favorites teased down to between -.5 to -2.5 and had some +7.5 for the hedges. LV somehow covered +7.5 with a walk off FG to be down 7. Love it when that happens. (By the way, I saw the Dave Portnoys of the world lose their minds over this. That is Square City. You should really almost never have a team at -7.5. There are just so many other better ways to bet a -7.5 favorite. Doing a teaser like I do is the most obvious one, but you can usually find a way to buy through the 7 profitably with enough line/book shopping. I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I don't think I've ever bet a team naked at -7.5).
Teasing SEA and GB both down to -.5 and then hedging with the opponent money line was the big brain play of the day for me. Both were different time slots and I was able to get really good money line numbers on both opponents at FanDuel, plus a little bit of +7.5 on both. Quite literally free money.
Speaking of FanDuel, this was my first real week using them and I have some thoughts. Number one, the app is bad, borderline terrible. It's 'sticky' feeling, like you have to wait a second after clicking anything. The color scheme is god awful, all wishy washy blues and blacks. The betting history is hard to read. The promos are decent, similar to DK except for one glaring issue: they're mostly $25 max where DK is usually $100 max. $25 max is barely usable. The good thing though is that their money lines on dogs are almost always the best number on the board, or at least close to it. I've found a couple other small exploits on there too that I don't want to talk about just yet. Nothing major. All in all it's for sure worth having but a clear step below DK for usability.
Even though it was a down week, I have so much teaser equity going into this week that I would consider it a good week. The Monday Night game, tonight, is PHI at LAC. PHI was a heavy -2.5, light -3 early in the week, so for a lot of my 3 team teasers, I put PHI +3.5 as my last leg. As the week progressed and the line moved to PHI -2, I switched to LAC +8 and +8.5. And I did put them in probably close to half of all my teasers. So I have a massive middle on the game tonight with PHI +3.5 and LAC +8.5. With free bets and odds boosts I've added more, mostly PHI money line.
If PHI wins by 9 or more I win 9 units.
If LAC win by 4 or more I win 13 units.
If PHI wins by 1-6 I win 20ish units.
If PHI wins by exactly 7, or if either team wins by 3, I scoop just about everything for over 50 units.
Hoping for a close game tonight, as you can see.
Looking ahead, I see A LOT of good Wong spots for week 15. Except for the Thursday night game, the Arz/Hou game and the 3 games lined at 13, every other single game is Wongable in some fashion. Lots of +1, +1.5s, so that is certainly something to keep an eye on all week. A lot of low totals, too. This could be a holy grail type of week for Wongs, so be on the lookout for another post before Sunday. Perhaps. But I'm jumping on some of these early, for sure.
In other news, there was another 'search' for the MH370 plane the other day. Pretty odd actually, it's been radio silence for almost a decade now and then all in one month we get the Ashton Forbes stuff and then this new 'search'. Weird timing. There's a lot more to discuss with the plane, too. People are really starting to look at the videos in a new light and are starting to actually kind of figure out what happened. Or at least what they think happened, of course. It's pretty insane. That will probably be my next post; more on the missing plane. There really is a lot more to get into.
That's it for today. Do you guys care about these recap posts? I can't tell. I suppose it's better than nothing but it really is the same thing every week. Wong teasers and hedging and middling. I'll probably keep them going but this missing plane is the big thing on my mind right now.
Check back soon and thanks for reading!
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