I had another phenomenal week betting NFL in Week 15. My second best week of the year, behind only the one I had 2 weeks ago. I made back everything I lost last week plus a good 10 units, PLUS I have tons of teaser legs pending going into this week. I have absolutley torched teasers this year. I'm on pace to have my best teaser year of all time, including when I was full time. Really dissecting and figuring out the most optimal way to play these this year has been a goldmine. I'm defintely running good but clearly I was way too loose with them in the past as well. Having Fan Duel as the other side of a lot of these teasers has been great, too, as they usually have the best dog money lines on the board. My only worry at this point is losing my PPH which, to be honest, I'm actually a little surprised hasn't happened yet.
Anyway, I figured I would do a little recap here but mostly do a look ahead as I have quite a few interesting spots brewing. With lots of stand alone games coming up (with low totals), this week looks like another juicy one for teasers.
The PHI/LAC game that I talked a lot about last recap landed nearly perfectly with LAC winning by 3. PHI winning by 3 would have been better, but this was the second best outcome. A great start to the week.
The best play of the week last week was on the WASH/NYG game. I had NYG teased to +8.5 from the prior week, and the line moved from WASH -2 to WASH +2.5 (this was pure luck but it's one reason I love doing Wong's super early. Sometimes you get a line move like this where you'll just be drowning in equity. You're just as likely to have the line move against you as you are with you, but when it happens like this it's boner-incuding). So I had NYG +8.5 as the last leg of a huge teaser, so now I needed to hedge on WASH. I teased them up to +8.5 for some but also got a bunch of WASH -6.5 and -7.5. Lo and behold, WASH wins by 8! Absolutely binking the FUCK out of everything.
CHI teased to -1.5 was never in doubt. PATS covered +8.5 and my BUF -2.5 and -3.5 hedges hit. DEN +7.5 won outright. I had a huge NO +8.5, CAR -2.5 half middle (I had way more on NO +8.5) that was thiiiis close to binking perfectly. I pulled PIT from a heavy -3 to +3.5 that was never in doubt too for the MNF game.
All in all a tremendous week.
Looking ahead, there are a lot of good spots this week.
For one, the game tonight is a clear Wong. I have LAR +7.5 hedged with a little bit of SEA ML, -1.5, -6.5 and -7.5 at +280ish from earlier in the week.
The two games on Saturday are Wongable as well, though no true Wongs. You can tease PHI down to either -1.5 or -.5 and either middle with WASH +7 or go for the free money scalp with WASH ML at +280ish.
I've managed to tease both sides of GB/CHI as this line has bounced around through the zero a bit. I actually got in a little bit bad on this one as I have GB -3 teased to GB +3.5. I made this bet before Parsons went down. I jumped on teasing CHI +1.5 to +7.5 and took a little bit more of GB teased to +7.5. So this is another game where if it's decided by less than a TD, I clean up. But if it's more than a TD, I lose a fair amount. So not great, actually. I'll be adding more to this game though as it gets closer as I have seen some juicy alt-lines.
I have NO teased from a heavy -3 to +3.5. This is another game where the line movement went my way. I needed a 6.5 point leg from last week and my book had NO -3 -125 where everywhere else had NO -3.5. So now I have NO +3.5 for a big amount and the line is now NO -5.5 with a nice and low total of 40. This gives me all kinds of options for the hedge/middle: I can fire on NYJ ML at +180, I can bet NYJ at -2.5 and even -3.5 at huge plus odds. If I really want to get nuts, I could fire NYJ +7.5 if I find an off market number somewhere for the mega middle. I'll probably do a little bit of everything. You throw an odds boost or free play into any of this and the equity is off the charts.
I made something of a 'big brain correlated parlay' last week that I had never thought of before. Maybe this is obvious but it wasn't to me at the time. I needed to bet on BUF last week as a hedge against my PATS teasers and I had an idea. My PPH always does look ahead lines, so they have nearly a full slate of next weeks games up before this current week even starts. So instead of just betting BUF ML normally, I parlayed them with the look ahead line of BAL -1.5 against the PATS (the game this week). My thinking was that if BUF beats the PATS, the line on the BAL/PATS game will probably move against the PATS. And that is exactly what happened. So now I have BAL -1.5 when the line is currently BAL -3 -115ish. I don't know if that whole line move was due to only the PATS losing (and BAL looking good), but there isn't any big injury news that I'm aware of. So this might be a good sneaky idea to add in on some of the smaller hedges. Parlays always look square too so that's a huge bonus.
One thing I always look for when I'm looking at a new slate of NFL games is the totals. I look for anything extreme: any games with super high or low totals. Any total in the 30's or under 41.5 I would consider low, and anything in the 50's I would consider high. Games with low totals will obviously have less scoring, which means the value of every point is higher than normal. (The inverse is true with high totals). This is something to always keep in mind in general, but especially with teasers and buying/selling points and hedging and middling. That being said, there are three games this week with official 'low totals.' NYJ/NO, LV/HOU and KC/TEN. (BUF/CLE is low too). So there might be a couple possible non-standard teaser opportunities on these games. I talked about NYJ/NO already, but you might be able to tease KC from -3 to +3.5 profitably, or at least as a filler leg. Same with NYJ teased to +10.5. There isn't a whole lot you can do on the LV/HOU game with the 14 point spread, but if you can get decent numbers with some sort of odds boost, you could look to middle the 14 in that game, or go for a full game or first half correlated parlay. The games with high totals would be LAC/DAL and PIT/DET. LAC is a clear Wong with the line being LAC +2, but with the high total I won't fire too much on this game. Also, with games like these with the high total, I usually won't go for any kind of middle at all. With my LAC +7.5 teasers, if I hedge at all I'll probably just do DAL -7.5, assuming I can get it at +270 or better. The lower the total, the more of a middle I'll usually do with my hedges. Another sneaky little thing I like to do with teasers with high totals is a polish middle. Say I have LAC teased to +7.5. Instead of hedging at DAL -7.5 +270, I might do DAL -9.5 at +330 (or whatever the odds are). It's a bit heart-attackish and I wouldn't do that for big money, but high totals = high variance, so that is the time to do it.
In other news, there was a murder of an MIT scientist that you may have heard of. I think it might have something to do with the missing plane we've been discussing on here a little bit. I'll get into that next time though. Until then, thanks for reading and check back soon!
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