Week 5 is in the books. Can you believe we're more than 5 weeks in already? Feels like the season just started. I had another strange and swingy day. Nothing compared to that TB lightning delay disaster a couple weeks ago, but plenty of drama nonetheless. Let's break it down plus a look ahead and some other things.
The week started with MNF, ATL at NO. I had a few teasers sneak through last week with their last legs being ATL +7.5. I went for the NO -2.5 middle mostly but left more risk on ATL. ATL blew them out so it was fine. I made a few more units than I lost in the week prior, so a decent start.
Up next was the Thursday night game. Now, looking at the board going into that Thursday game, the teaser situation was a little weird. As you know by now, my strategy really needs stand alone games that can be Wonged. The TNF game was a perfect candidate with DAL at -8, -8.5, on its way to 9 for most of the week. Playing at home against TB without Baker Mayfield. There were no possible teasers in the Sunday afternoon slate, so I had DAL -2.5 as the first leg in nearly every single teaser I had for the week. I ended up getting really good numbers on TB ML and +8.5 and +7.5 combining a ton of free bets and odds boosts, so I made it so I basically broke even on anything other than the middle hitting. As we know DAL somehow lost that game. So most of my teasers died but I didn't lose anything.
Now, on to the whacky-ness. Sunday started off with PHI/JAX in London as a stand alone 9:30 AM game. Jax opened at -7 and closed at -8, so they were a perfect teaser leg. A stand alone game, a 7.5/8 point favorite, AND a low total. With DAL losing, I nowre-fired on JAX as the first leg in every other teaser I put in. (With no 4:00 legs available but lots of 1:00 legs, I had to settle for doing a bunch of 2 teamers at -110 instead of 3 teamers at +170. Two teamers at -110 is slightly worse). So I have JAX -1.5 paired with the following: GB +7.5, NO +8.5, CLE +8.5, HOU -1.5, IND +8.5, so 5 different teasers. I hedged out of the JAX -1.5 position with a mix of PHI ML, PHI +7.5 and PHI +3.5. Did you watch that game?? Another absolutely retarded ending with both teams seemingly trying to lose. JAX scored a TD way late in the game to go up by 2 but they miss the fucking extra point (because their long snapper was ejected for fighting on the very first play of the game which also negated a return TD). So JAX is up by 2 with a couple minutes left. The 1:00 games are like 10 minutes away from starting so I fly back into my battle station and I start hedging/middling the 1:00 legs. I get a couple legs done and then see that PHI is now about to kick a game winning field goal. I run downstairs just in time to see it go through the uprights. FUCK. Now my teasers are dead and I just put in a bunch of hedges and middles against bets that don't exist. I run back upstairs to get out of these new positions, and just as I'm about to start re-firing, I hear commotion again! For some ungoldly reason, PHI kicked off to JAX and let them return it to their 30 something with exactly 1 second left. JAX then kicks the 57 yard walk off FG to win by a perfect two points. My teasers stay alive and all of my PHI bets (except for ML) won as well. A great but hectic start to the day.
So now my teasers are live and I need to hedge/middle the rest of them fast. I manage to get them all covered, mostly live, but not really optimally. I don't remember this last year: having to wait to see if I need to hedge until the very last second. Are games getting longer or something? Or are they all seemingly closer? I don't know.
Either way, the 1:00 slate ended up going really well, all things considered. GB blew CHI out which was fine. NO didn't cover 8.5 but I was able to hit MIN -7.5 for big plus odds live so I made a small profit there. CLE covered +8.5 but lost by 4 which was perfect. That was one of my big 'middle' plays of the day with two shitty offensives and a low total. My main hedges were NYJ -2.5 and ML, but a couple of them were at -4.5 which was perfect with the Jets winning by 5. HOU destroyed TEN and IND got blown out. I caught a book sleeping on PIT -2 earlier in the week when the market was at -2.5 -120, so I had more than usual on PIT on that leg though. All in all, a good result overall for the 1:00 slate.
The only real action I had in the 4:00 slate was a big middle I had on the NYG/WASH game. Early in the week I jumped on WASH -3 -115 and WASH ML -170, both at DK and both of which were near arbs to the market. Later, I jumped on NYG +4.5 -120 on Fanduel which was also an arb to the market. I also had WASH +3.5 as the second leg of a small teaser from the prior week. So if WASH won this game by exactly 3, it would have been perfect. This was another shit show end of the game where it seemed like neither team really wanted to win. I'm sure you saw the highlights. If not, you should check it out. Some of the worst game management I have ever seen in my life. The game ended up, somehow, in a tie. Which wasn't the worst outcome in the world for me. There were some massive, glaring live arbs up at the end of this game, too, and for a decent amount of time. Live arbing is always risky but I hit them a few times. I got -528 arbed with +650 at the same exact time, and -118 with +134. Like I've said many times before, live betting is still very much up for grabs if you know where/how to look and have some balls.
SF/SEA landed absolutely perfect with SF winning by 3. I had SEA +3.5 as the last leg of a small teaser, SF ML and SF +3 as the second leg of a boosted parlay. Every single bet I had on this game won. None of them were big, it was a 6 unit win total, but of course I'll take it.
Nothing of note on the SNF game, really. I had ATL -2.5 -130 from early in the week that I half-hedged with BAL +3.5. I also had BAL +3 as the last leg of that boosted parlay, so I made a few units no matter who won with the big middle on ATL winning by 3. And it went into OT! Close, but BAL ended up winning outright.
All in all, a cool 34 units of profit. My biggest week of the year so far. I'm crushing it so far this NFL season, and teasers have mostly gotten killed. My only real worry right now is losing one of my legal accounts. To be honest, I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet. I have a few years worth of sample now at Draft Kings and I'm solidly in the green there. Hopefully I stay under their radar (I'll order some clothes from them this week too) but even if I do lose them, I'll be fine.
For tonight, I have LAR -2.5 -115 that I got on Bet MGM last week. I'm also able to get BUF +3.5 -110 right now which is slightly arb-able. I have to say, I'm doing a really good job of setting up these big profitable middles and arbs, completely separate from teasers. This really has been a wildly encouraging start to the season so far and I still feel like I'm due to hit a big, stand alone game middle.
Looking ahead, nothing I'm quite jumping on yet but lots of lines to keep an eye on. PATS will almost certainly be some kind of a teaser leg against NYJ. I'll start trying to get a really good NYJ ML numbers matched on NoVig. CAR, NYG and DAL are all 1 point dogs on my PPH which you know I'll be looking at all week, looking for something to go to +1.5. My PPH also has KC at -9 +100 instead of -8.5 -110 like most everyone else. Is he finally learning?? I really hope not (and I also really doubt it. This guy is a few crayons short of a full box). The MNF game has SF at -7.5 against WASH which will be a perfect stand alone last leg.
That is it for me today. The NFL/teaser train keeps on chuggin.
Thanks for reading, check back soon!
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