Results And More

 This is beginning to feel like a humiliation ritual.

Matt Roy o2.5 -115 L

Jakob Chychrun o2.5 +120 L

Rasmus Sandin o2.5 +130 L

Dylan Samberg u1.5 +110 W

Neal Pionk u1.5 -125 L

57 plays, -7.46 units total. The Capitals guys all got plenty of ice time and exactly 2 blocks, and Sandin was on the ice for 29 attempts against, but another disappointing night in the books. Somehow, the one night I get in on good looking over Block bets on the Capitals, the Hurricanes have their second lowest shot attempt night in the series, down from their average by a good margin. I had them getting about 70 attempts at the net and looking at it now, they've averaged 73 for the series including last nights game. And last night they get 58. 

If I was full time, this would barely be a blip. 57 plays would be a couple of days and you can easily run bad for weeks and even months sometimes, even when you're crushing soft stuff like hockey props. So, again, I actually do think I'm making +EV bets here. But I'm really not confident about it at all and I definitely would not recommend anyone tail me, if anyone even is. 

Looking at my overall numbers, including this week, I'll have 7 weeks of betting on Blocks and will be up roughly 5 units. 5 weeks betting on SOG and will be down right around 4.5 units. So it's probably something like 150ish plays between SOG and Blocks with a tiny profit, if anything. I don't think I'm quite ready to throw in the towel just yet but I'm close. 

By the way, I should mention this, but in case you haven't figured it out by now, I am absolutely no math whiz. I didn't come to sports betting/modeling because I had knowledge about statistics or math or big data programming and wanted to apply it. It was the other way around. I only learned anything about this kind of stuff because I was modeling. I only learned what I needed to make whatever model I was making at the time, so I don't have the base of knowledge that I think is required these days to really make a go at modeling anything, even props. I had to change my college major because I couldn't pass a trigonometry class! I did much better on the English portion of the SATS than the math section and it's always been that way for me. I'm better at math than the average person, mostly due to the fact that the average person is abysmal at anything even resembling math above an 8th grade level. I'm good with percentages, I think I'm good at 'logic' and I know how to ask things and figure stuff out, and I'm not afraid to try things. But the very base knowledge that really good modelers have is something I lack. Someone in the comments very nicely asked if I thought about using a 'negative binomial distribution' instead of poisson and honestly, he might as well been speaking Chinese. (By the way, if you're reading this, I will get the DM's fixed on the X account tonight, I promise. I can only log into that account on my home computer and haven't been able to get on this week). Basically, every single thing I know or have ever known about statistics or anything related to statistics, I have learned in a sports betting book or forum post. I wish I understood this shit better. I wish they made it more real and applicable in school. It was always so dry and abstract and meaningless to me, honestly. "Calculate the shaded region under the curved line" YAWN. Why not "come up with a fair number for Team X expected shots on goal vs Team Y." That would be fun and people would actually pay attention!

But I digress. I'm probably sounding a little whiney here. I could have and should have learned this stuff way better at some point. I probably still could now. But the will just is not quite there like it used to be (but it is still there, a little more than I thought). 

It's always been a love/hate relationship with my models and with statistics in general. I often get mad at myself for not taking school and learning in general more seriously when I was younger. It was just all so fucking boring.

Anyway, that's about it. BTC has had a big month, up about 20% and near its' all time high. ETH and alt-coins in general have shown a little bit of life lately. The BTC/ETH ratio is now at about .025 after bouncing off of .018. BTC dominance is still way up though. I've found a better way of looking at BTC dominance by the way, which is to exclude stablecoins. With stablecoins taken out, BTC dominance is at 67%. That's pretty remarkable when you think about it. All this time later, all the tens of millions of alt-coins (actually probably hundreds of millions that have come and gone), all of the Ethereum and Doge and Solana of it all, the NFT's, Bitcoin is still almost 70% of the entire crypto market cap. No CEO, no company, no marketing, no 'dev team', nothing. Just a white paper uploaded to an obscure cryptography forum by a nameless person. That's it. That's how you know it has real value. You would never have even heard of it if it didn't. 

That's all for today. Check back this weekend for a post or some more picks if I feel like losing some money. Bye!

BTC price: $104k

BTC dominance (including stablecoins and without): 62% / 67%

BTC market cap: $2.07 T (boy we really smashed that one trillion market cap, didn't we?)

Total crypto market cap: $3.32 T

Total cryptos on coin market cap: 15.5 M