I was looking at my overall numbers the other day and realized that my xBlocks model was up a good amount, more than I remembered. The sample size is only a few weeks but well over 100 plays. I'm thinking this model has a better chance of winning over the SOG model, mostly due to the fact that I have never even heard of anyone betting on NHL Blocks, so I think this market is probably super soft. Definitely softer than SOG. I only stopped using it because I sort of wandered into my xSOG model and got really into that.
So we're going to shake things up a bit here and go with xBlocks for at least tonight and see how we do.
Here are the picks, all NHL Blocks from Draft Kings, one unit unless otherwise stated.
Matt Roy o2.5 -115
Jakob Chychrun o2.5 +120
Rasmus Sandin o2.5 +130
Dylan Samberg u1.5 +110
Neal Pionk u1.5 -125
Lots of Washington overs as Carolina has been absolutely peppering them with shots and shot attempts all series. They also led the league in CF for the regular season, and the second place team had more than 300 less attempts. I expect Washington to sell out big time to block shots tonight, too. The three Washington overs I see big edges on. Normally I'd make these 1.5 or 2 unit plays but I'm a little gun shy right now so we'll keep em all 1 unit.
And the two unders for the Wnpg players are decent edges but not huge. Dallas was average regular season for shot attempts but is way at the bottom during the playoffs.
I feel good about this slate. We'll see how it goes but I do intend on getting to 100 plays here, one way or another. Check back tomorrow for results and be on the lookout for a real post soon. Lots of stuff in the news I would like to touch on. Bye for now!
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