Not a great night, bad sizing as usual.
Bobby Mcmann o1.5 -125 L
Sam Bennet o2.5 -148 (1.5 units) L
Carter Verhaege o2.5 -135 L
Brad Marchand u1.5 +110 L
Gustav Forsling o1.5 -142 W
A Lundell o1.5 -130 (half unit) W
Kyle Connor o2.5 -182 W
3-4, -3.32 units. -1.16 units total after 47 plays. We probably 'should' have won that Bennet bet with 6 corsis/shot attempts (I don't want the word corsi to disappear, replaced by the gay sounding 'shot attempts'. I love that it's named after a goalie coach who only started tracking it for his goalies. Not even in the NHL I'm pretty sure. But it is awkward to call shot attempts 'corsis', I will admit). With 6 attempts we should win that bet a little more than half the time. Same with the Verhaege bet with his 6 attempts and 5 scoring chances. We should definitely win at least one of those with Bennet bet being a 3 unit swing.
Marchand was a miss. I couldn't watch it but it looks like he had a really good game. He's probably my all time favorite hockey player. Came out of absolutely nowhere, grinded the 3rd line and PK, was back and forth between the Providence Bruins and the NHL team. Then he just caught fire and turned into one of the best players of his era. Has played in some of the biggest hockey games on the planet in his career, NHL and otherwise. Even if you take all the 'rat' and pest/instigator stuff out, which probably adds something to a team, he was an elite player with elite hands. When I was really betting hockey props, I remember he had the highest shooting percentage in the entire league for a few years. Actually looking at it now, he had 20.28%, 19.78, 18.68%, and 17.26% for his high water marks for shooting percentage in mostly full seasons. That's almost 3 times better than average. (Hockey analytics is all about possession and getting attempts at the net, and the newer stuff is tracking breakouts and entires and shot location, along with 'shot passes' which is cool. The newer stuff seems to be trying to better figure out the stuff that happens in between shot attempts, which is good. That seems to be the next evolution; quantifying how teams break out and attack and regroup and play in the neutral zone. But no one has really been able to dissect shot quality just yet. At least not publicly that I've seen, anyway. Two different shooters with the pucks on their stick in the offensive zone at the same exact spot on the ice are going to differ in their outcome, probably wildly, but most analytics largely treat them as the same.) Anyway, back to Marchand. He's so shifty, all hips and hands, and is an elite penalty killer which, by the way, doesn't show up in his stats whatsoever, unless you specifically look for it. It actually hurts his overall 'noob level analytics' stats quite a bit (All Situations CF%, FF%, GF%, etc). He's a winner and shows up in a lot of ways that help a team but don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet. He's great at maintaining possession, always had elite CF% numbers, even currently. Of course, it doesn't hurt playing with Patrice Bergeron for 90% of your career, but maybe Bergeron was as good as he was partly because of Marchand? You don't really know. He's also one of those players that always plays well above his 'expected' stats which I always find interesting. In 17 seasons, his actual Goals For% has been a good bit higher than his expected Goals For% in all but 4 seasons. That's pretty remarkable. Pure talent.
Anyway, the winners were all legit winners with lots of Ice time and Attempts. The Mcmann bet was bad though I think. I need to look into him more, sometimes I get these 3rd line guys that look good in the model but don't really feel right. Probably an ice time thing. This is where following the leagues closer helps which I am getting a little bit better at.
ANYWAY, I've decided I'll probably get to 100 plays and then make a decision. If I'm down after 100 plays, there's a pretty good chance the model is bad. Not definite by any means, but this is all more for fun than anything else, I guess, so I don't need to keep doing it. But if I'm up a good amount, I'll probably keep it going all playoffs. I'm betting really small but if/as I gain confidence, that will change.
In other news, Bitcoin is ripping a little bit which, honestly, always makes me nervous. My biggest fear for bitcoin right now is a massive, sudden move up, the O Mega candle people like to talk about. I have plenty of invested in it but it never feels like enough. I want another couple years to keep stacking and then let it hit $500K. Of course, I know this makes me sound way too optimistic about it, and I probably am, but I am more convinced than ever that bitcoin is at the very least the new gold. Ark Investment is this Investment group you may have heard about. Their CEO is Cathie Woods, she's been at it pretty publicly for a long time, always on all kinds of shows and stuff (and was a babe when she was younger. Look it up). She/they are super into Bitcoin and the blockchain and released a pretty interesting paper a few weeks ago analyzing where they think the future of Bitcoin will go. You can find it here. The money shot though is that their price predictions for 2030 are $300k, $710K, and $1.5 million per bitcoin for bear, base, and bull cases. I read the whole thing, it seems pretty solid. $150k feels like the next big number to claim and like I said in an old post, once we solidly break out of the lower regression band in Ben Cowen's model, we don't stop going up until we hit the red, way over extended band. (I'll probably revisit that prediction in a future post. I like to look back on old predictions and with 5 years here now, we have a good amount of perspective.) We'll see if this cycle is different with the massive institutional money in it now, though. 'Diminishing returns' is a thing Ben Cowen always mentions. The highs will probably get less extreme, but so will the lows.
BTC dominance continues to be the story this cycle as alt-coins continue their bleed against The King. The BTC/ETH ratio is at .0202 and that's with a good amount of recent recovery. It got as low as .0179 recently, which is about the same level as the last big low in late 2019. So we may get a bounce here. Keep an eye on ETH and related alt coins in the next few weeks. For me, besides my little ChainLink alt-coin side piece, I'm focused mostly on Bitcoin. I'll probably always have some ETH and a little LTC and of course my LINK, but what are you even really buying when you buy an ETH 'token'? With no max supply, proof stake instead of proof of work, and a CEO who won't live forever, it doesn't exactly feel right to try to amass a big chunk of it. I know you need ETH and certain coins to do things on the blockchain, but other than that, why would you want a pile of ETH vs a pile of BTC? Bitcoin is not going anywhere. I think it'll always be the 'gold' of the cryptoverse, at the very least. So why not keep it mostly all in BTC and buy the other stuff when you need it? I don't know, I'm not an alt coin guy at all so I'm probably not seeing part of it. But I have been thinking a lot about alt-coins in general and why anyone would really want a bunch of any of them over bitcoin. I think the best answer to that is to hope to sell for profit, which is just kicking the can down the road. You have to have an actual, real use case somewhere. I think the market is thinking about the same thing which you can see from the valuations against BTC. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mini alt coin cycle again this cycle, but I think the big, zoomed out picture for the next decade is largely going to be money flowing from alt coins into BTC, not the other way around.
Another related story for this cycle has been the absence of retail. Retail never really came back after 2020, judging from new subscribers and twitter followers to a bunch of youtube and twitter guys/exchanges that Ben Cowen tracks. You can feel it too. You don't hear much about crypto anymore in casual life. When/if they do come back, you'll definitely see more money go into alts, but even if that does happen, you know it'll be short lived. So just buy Bitcoin and store it yourself. That's what I'm doing anyway, none of this is financial advice (I love how everyone says that by the way).
That's about it for now. I'll probably have some picks up later today but no promises. Thanks to anyone reading and especially leaving a comment, it's nice to know I'm not just shouting into the void here. The stats show there's plenty of people coming but you can never really trust that. You don't know what's real and what isn't.
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