Results And More Picks For Tonight

 DISASTER last night, on paper at least. Let's compile first:

Jimmy Snuggerud o1.5 -130 L

Cole Perfetti u1.5 +145 L

Morgan Barron u1.5 -162 L

Alex Iafallo u1.5 -154 W

Neal Pionk u1.5 +110 L

N Ehlers u2.5 -120 L

1-5 for the night for -5.12 units. Yuck! Puts us at -6.18 units total after 25 plays so far. It looks bad and in the last few years, here is where I'd normally slam my keyboard and swear off props forever, for the 10th time. However, I actually kind of nailed these picks last night. The Jets tied it up with less than 2 seconds left in regulation which sent the game into (double) OT. Had OT not happened, I would have had a really good night. And it actually gets even better (or worse) than that. The Jets were pretty heavily favored last night, yet were trailing 3-1 almost the entire second half of the game. If you know anything about hockey analytics, you definitely know about 'scoring effects.' Scoring effects refers to the effect in hockey where when a team is trailing late in games, especially by more than 1 goal, they'll take a lot more chances and generate more shots and shot attempts. These shots are generally lower quality with shooting percentages somewhere around 50% worse than when the game is tied or close in the first two periods. Basically, the trailing team is in desperation mode so they activate their defenseman and throw everything and anything at the net (the opposite is true for the winning team. They will typically get a lot less attempts but they will be much higher quality. Think of odd man rushes as the now attacking opposition defenseman get trapped in the offensive zone). 

So, the Jets were trailing by 2 goals late, which they 'shouldn't' have been, which increased their shot volume by a substantial amount, and I STILL would have come away solidly in the green had it not been for OT. (A thought I had this morning; I may make a small bet on the YES for will there be overtime on slates where I have tons of Unders. OT really does stick a fork in prop unders. I'll have to look around to see if I can get a decent number. Something I'll think about).

Believe it or not, I am actually encouraged so far with this new model and we still don't have near the amount of plays to overcome variance yet, plus I've only been doing one game per night so big swings are expected. I'm going to stick with it for the rest of the playoffs, barring something insane going on. If you're following along with me, stay the course. The process is solid and I envision green days ahead.

For tonight we have Toronto at Florida, Game 1 of the second round.

The following are all Shots on Goal from DK, to win or risking one unit unless otherwise stated:

A Matthews: u3.5 -110

M Knies: u1.5 +130

Marner: u1.5 +120

Max Pacioretty: u1.5 +115

Bobby McMann: o1.5 -130 (half unit)

Sam Reinhart: u2.5 +115

Carter Verhaeghe: o2.5 -130

Sam Bennet: o2.5 -130 (1.5 units)

Marchand: u1.5 +120

Lots of Toronto unders, couple Panthers overs. Hopefully we turn it around tonight. Check back tomorrow for results and I have a real post cooking too so keep an eye out. Bye for now!