What a week! If you follow along here and read my last couple posts you might already know, but I just had my best week BY FAR since 2018. Back when I was full-time! Over eighty units locked up last week! Let's dive in real quick.
The big game of the day was GB/DET. I jumped on DET -3 +100 on DraftKings early in the week for a massive amount, hedging it with only GB +3.5. I was able to get -110 on GB at the time I made the DET bet, but I was nibbling on it all week, getting it as good as +108 yesterday. Going into the game I actually didn't really love my position. It was objectively great, but I made it so DET had to win by exactly 3 to win anything at all. I felt like I sucked the value out of the DET -3 bet a little too much, but the number on GB +3.5 kept getting better and better so I couldn't resist. In the end, it was essentially something like 2.3 units to win 35 on DET winning by exactly 3. These are the kinds of spots/middles I've been generating for years that feel like they never hit. And whatya know, we finally binked it last night. Truly a great feeling, especially because I went so big on it.
TB crushed CAR which was ok. I made that middle so that I still profited a couple units on TB +3 winning.
CLE/TEN ended up nearly perfect with my TEN +7.5 teaser legs winning AND my CLE ML and -2.5 winning. That was the awesome teaser leg I've been talking about in my last couple posts. Super low total, two bad offenses. This was another one where I trusted myself, got aggressive and needed the middle to hit to win anything, and thankfully it did.
The only real bummer of the day was the CLE/BAL game. If you remember, I had both teams in teasers so was really looking for a close game. When BAL got up by 13 at half, I live bet them to cover -6.5. My thinking was that I would be happy to lose that bet, seeing as it would mean that my teasers all won. I didn't think it was even possible for CIN to win by 8 or more at that point. So I lost a bit more on this game than was necessary.
As good of a week as it was, it was actually fairly close to being A LOT better. I had the big KC +8.5, SEA -2.5 middle on for the SNF game. With it being the last leg of all my teasers, I made it so I profited a decent amount no matter what, plus I hit SEA -9.5 live for a little bit. But if that middle hit on top of everything else, it would have been one of my best weeks of all time.
So I am feeling quite pleased today, I must say. I feel like I've done a great job grinding my way back up these past couple years. Arbing free bets and odds boosts, using every single possible reward, signing up for all these new legal books. Grinding away 3 cent baseball arbs on NoVig every single day all summer. It really was work and a grind, but it was worth it. Now I have healthy balances everywhere and I don't need to frantically move money around or turn it into cash. My overall ROI now since starting on NoVig is 4.5%! With way higher volume than ever before, too. I'm happy with my approach lately, too. I'm betting way less scared. In the past, even with poker, it always felt like I would get doom-switched whenever I upped the stakes, almost to the point where it felt like a self fulfilling prophecy. But now it doesn't feel like that at all. I don't even think I'm running all that great, either. This feels like proper, profitable, aggressive, plus-EV sports betting. And I'm still way down on teasers and my PPH for the year! I might even be running bad! *(Just kidding, variance gods! I still kneel before you).*
Looking ahead, there really isn't much of anything that I'm jumping on early. The games tonight and Thursday have no teaser potential, and I have no legs hanging over from last week. The only line I may start a small teaser with is JAX -8. Nothing to pair it with yet though. My PPH has DEN at +1 in the 4:00 slate, so I'll be checking on these two lines all week. ATL could be a leg too, but at +2 it isn't worth jumping on this early. LV/NYJ will be a line to watch all week, seeing if I can get one or even both teams at +1.5 teased up to +7.5. PATS will probably be a leg too, but at -7/7.5, I'll wait to see how it moves.
We're eating good tonight! Thanks for reading and check back soon!
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