Week 7 Bets

 Quick post here today where I have some time. Lot of action coming up this week so I thought I would do a little preview of what I have going.

We're blessed by the schedule gods this week giving us many Wongable stand-alone games.

First was DEN on Thursday night. Another OT game that doesn't quite go my way. Den winning outright was fine but if they had lost by 3-7 it would have been perfect. I had SEA -2.5 as my main hedge.

But anyway, with my DEN +8.5 legs all live, I'm in decent shape so far.

The first leg of the day is HOU +8.5 playing in the new 9:30 slot. I don't have much on this leg at all, actually. It isn't my favorite sort of line to Wong with Pinny dealing +2.5 -100, -2.5 -113. You really want to be teasing 'heavy' points as I call them. A +2.5 -114. With the low total and it being a stand alone game, I do have one small teaser with it as a leg. I might add a little more but I don't know, something is telling me to stay away. 

Actually, I guess the main reason is that last week the 9:30 game didn't end until after the 1:00's started. That's too risky/hard to hedge and middle, so the only legs I could add would be afternoon games or later. And now that DAL has gone to +1, it really only leaves me with KC as an option. And as we'll see soon, I really do not need any more KC action.

(OK that was a little verbose. They won't all be like that, I swear.)

Onto the 1:00 slate, my best leg here is actually ATL +7.5. I sniped them when they were at +1.5. They went to a PK but now seem to be going back to +1. Either way, I'm able to middle/hedge on CHI now at incredible prices. Don't love the high total but I went with a lot of CHI -2.5 as my hedge. I also managed to snipe ATL +3.5 -120 for the max on my slow moving PPH which is an incredible price. I bought back some CHI -3.5 as an arb, but mostly CHI -2.5 and some ML. Looking for the middle here, big time.

Next we have the PATS. This isn't really a true Wong as they're closer to a 7 point favorite than 7.5, but I like doing this and betting opponent ML as my main hedge. Really giving myself an effective PATS ML bet at something like -200 odds. I got a couple good numbers on JETS +7.5 and some +3.5 so I'd love a nice middle here. Only thing that can't happen here is PATS winning by exactly one. It's not for a huge amount though so I'm ok with the risk. I can hedge out of it live if I have to, too.

Up next we have TB. Low total, home dog, pretty good spot. I don't have a whole lot here actually but I might add to it tomorrow. I usually wait longer on the 2.5's as opposed to 1.5's. If it drifts into the 3, I'm pretty fucked.

The 4:00 slate only gives one real option and that is KC teased down to -2.5 and -1.5. With it being the only afternoon leg, this is the game I have an uncomfortable amount on, and will probably have an even bigger amount come 4:00. This is going to be a big one. If I can bink this middle, it'll be a massive week. And again, if KC wins by 1 or 2, I will be fucked. Not too too bad though, honestly. I'm getting lots of LAC +7.5, +3.5 and +2.5, but I can't NOT take any money line. Low total and KC is the king of winning but not covering, so I like this spot. This will be THE game of tomorrow.

But the fun doesn't stop there! We have ANOTHER stand alone leg that I was able to pounce on early, which is DAL +7.5 in the SNF game. They've been +1 all week but went to +1.5 for like an hour on my PPH and I clobbered them on it. They're the last and second to last leg in most of my teasers, so this will (hopefully) be a big game too.

And that isn't even it! The MNF game is a perfect wong too! Can you believe it? The Thursday night game, the 9:30 Sunday game, a few in the 1:00 slate, one in the 4:00 slate, the SNF and MNF games all being Wongable? It's like I personally made the schedule this week, lol.

The MNF game is WASH at SF, SF-7.5. Perfect last leg for teasers. Little bit of a pain with it being cross weeks and having the PPH but that's too minute to explain. True PPH guys will probably know what I mean here.

But anyway, that's about what I have going this week. All my hedges and middles now go in at either a legal book with an odds boost of some kind, or on NoVig, usually with me making. So I should technically have a small edge on even most of my 'hard side' hedges and middles. Pretty, pretty, pretty good spot all around I would say. Since starting on NoVig, my ROI has gone up nearly a full percent, and my volume has gone WAY up too. I really am expecting to make a good profit this season. But we shall see! 

Talk soon, maybe tomorrow. Bye!