Picks For Tonight

Lets get right to it.

All SOG props from DK, one unit unless otherwise stated.

Bobby Mcmann o1.5 -125

Sam Bennet o2.5 -148 (1.5 units)

Carter Verhaege o2.5 -135

Brad Marchand u1.5 +110

Gustav Forsling o1.5 -142

A Lundell o1.5 -130 (half unit)

Kyle Connor o2.5 -182

Hopefully we can keep our momentum going after last nights 8-1 run. Good luck us and check back tomorrow!

Results!

BINK. Let us compile first:

S Gostibehere o1.5 +120 (full unit) W

Brent Burns o1.5 -110 L

T Hall o1.5 -130 W

L Stankoven o1.5 -175 W

Jackson Blake u1.5 +135 W

Seth Jarvis o2.5 +115 (full unit) W

S Aho o2.5 +110 W

D Strome u1.5 +105 W

Tom Wilson u1.5 +126 W

SGP .25 units L

Now that's more like it! 8-2, +4.94 units for the night. As usual, bet sizing kicking me in the ass. These really shouldn't have been half units. The first few guys I priced I only saw small/no edges so I said to make them half units. I got back on my computer later and did most of the Carolina guys and most of those were fairly big edges. But obviously we'll count them as half units, besides the two that were full.

Puts us at +2.16 units so far after 40 plays.

This is a lot more what betting these used to feel like. Good mix of overs/unders so I know there isn't a glaring model bias. The game went into OT but I'm pretty sure every single over was already a winner before OT started. Covering two unders with OT is nice, too. Even the only loss, the Brent Burns over, really 'should' have been a win with him getting plenty of PP time and having 5 corsis. With 5 attempts, he really should cover 2 shots well over 75% of the time.

You never want to over react to any single day, good or bad, so we'll just keep on keeping on. But I am really encouraged so far, I love my new model and I feel like I'm nailing the TOI for each guy/player. I used to fly through these, trying to get down on as many bets as possible. This time around, I'm doing a lot more research, spending more time on each game/bet. It feels dumb now to say this, but I never really considered how different playoffs are to regular season games when it comes to expected shots and PP ice time. Now that I know, I'm way more happy to fire on close over bets and pass on close under bets. 

Anyway, hopefully you guys were able to get down on these. I have no idea if anyone is even tailing me. I can see the stats and there's plenty of people coming here, but I have no clue how many people are tailing me. Leave a comment if you are!

Check back later today, 90% chance I'll have more bets up for tonights games. Talk soon, bye!

Picks Tonight

Some more Shots On Goal picks for tonight. Hopefully we can get a little momentum going. I could only get to one game tonight and only saw mostly small edges, to be honest, so these plays are going to be half units unless otherwise stated.

S Gostibehere o1.5 +120 (full unit)

Brent Burns o1.5 -110

T Hall o1.5 -130

L Stankoven o1.5 -175

Jackson Blake u1.5 +135

Seth Jarvis o2.5 +115 (full unit)

S Aho o2.5 +110

D Strome u1.5 +105

Tom Wilson u1.5 +126

Quarter unit SGP with 33% odds boost: Car -1.5, A Svechnikov 1+ point, Last Goal: Carolina, Over 5.5 full game. +698, .25 units to win 1.75.

If Carolina is up by 1 or more late and score an empty net goal, that's covering the -1.5 and Car Last Goal. The over and Svech getting a point are correlated with each other and the Car -1.5 bet. I have no idea if it's +EV but it's tiny, fun, looks fishy, and with the odds boost it can't possible be terrible. 

I feel pretty good about these. I like lots of shots from the point by Carolina obviously, and if it goes into OT I'm feeling great.

Again, if picks aren't your thing, don't worry. This won't become a regular thing, and if it ever did I would start a new blog or something else. But it won't. If they are your thing, feel free to leave a message on here or on X  @poogsBLOG

Check back tomorrow for results!

Results From Last Night, Picks Incoming

Finally breaking the bad streak here with a really good night. Let's compile first: 

A Matthews: u3.5 -110 L

M Knies: u1.5 +130 L 

Marner: u1.5 +120 L

Max Pacioretty: u1.5 +115 W

Bobby McMann: o1.5 -130 (half unit) W

Sam Reinhart: u2.5 +115 W

Carter Verhaeghe: o2.5 -130 W

Sam Bennet: o2.5 -130 (1.5 units) W

Marchand: u1.5 +120 W

6-3 for plus 3.4 units for the night. Puts us at -2.78 units so far after 31 plays.

I'll probably have some picks for tonight later on so check back this afternoon. We WILL end the playoffs in the green. 

Results And More Picks For Tonight

 DISASTER last night, on paper at least. Let's compile first:

Jimmy Snuggerud o1.5 -130 L

Cole Perfetti u1.5 +145 L

Morgan Barron u1.5 -162 L

Alex Iafallo u1.5 -154 W

Neal Pionk u1.5 +110 L

N Ehlers u2.5 -120 L

1-5 for the night for -5.12 units. Yuck! Puts us at -6.18 units total after 25 plays so far. It looks bad and in the last few years, here is where I'd normally slam my keyboard and swear off props forever, for the 10th time. However, I actually kind of nailed these picks last night. The Jets tied it up with less than 2 seconds left in regulation which sent the game into (double) OT. Had OT not happened, I would have had a really good night. And it actually gets even better (or worse) than that. The Jets were pretty heavily favored last night, yet were trailing 3-1 almost the entire second half of the game. If you know anything about hockey analytics, you definitely know about 'scoring effects.' Scoring effects refers to the effect in hockey where when a team is trailing late in games, especially by more than 1 goal, they'll take a lot more chances and generate more shots and shot attempts. These shots are generally lower quality with shooting percentages somewhere around 50% worse than when the game is tied or close in the first two periods. Basically, the trailing team is in desperation mode so they activate their defenseman and throw everything and anything at the net (the opposite is true for the winning team. They will typically get a lot less attempts but they will be much higher quality. Think of odd man rushes as the now attacking opposition defenseman get trapped in the offensive zone). 

So, the Jets were trailing by 2 goals late, which they 'shouldn't' have been, which increased their shot volume by a substantial amount, and I STILL would have come away solidly in the green had it not been for OT. (A thought I had this morning; I may make a small bet on the YES for will there be overtime on slates where I have tons of Unders. OT really does stick a fork in prop unders. I'll have to look around to see if I can get a decent number. Something I'll think about).

Believe it or not, I am actually encouraged so far with this new model and we still don't have near the amount of plays to overcome variance yet, plus I've only been doing one game per night so big swings are expected. I'm going to stick with it for the rest of the playoffs, barring something insane going on. If you're following along with me, stay the course. The process is solid and I envision green days ahead.

For tonight we have Toronto at Florida, Game 1 of the second round.

The following are all Shots on Goal from DK, to win or risking one unit unless otherwise stated:

A Matthews: u3.5 -110

M Knies: u1.5 +130

Marner: u1.5 +120

Max Pacioretty: u1.5 +115

Bobby McMann: o1.5 -130 (half unit)

Sam Reinhart: u2.5 +115

Carter Verhaeghe: o2.5 -130

Sam Bennet: o2.5 -130 (1.5 units)

Marchand: u1.5 +120

Lots of Toronto unders, couple Panthers overs. Hopefully we turn it around tonight. Check back tomorrow for results and I have a real post cooking too so keep an eye out. Bye for now!

Game 7 Picks!

Quickly, some picks for the game 7 tonight STL at WNPG

All are for one unit, DK lines, Shots On Goal.

Jimmy Snuggerud o1.5 -130

Cole Perfetti u1.5 +145

Morgan Barron u1.5 -162

Alex Iafallo u1.5 -154

Neal Pionk u1.5 +110

N Ehlers u2.5 -120

Feels like we're get into the green tonight but we shall see. Didn't see any glaring edges but decent ones on all of them. The Jets should see a lot less PP time tonight than they have been in the past few games. Hopefully no OT!

Check back tomorrow for results and a new post coming soon, something very different. Bye for now!

Results from 4/29/25

First, the results:

Chabot o1.5 -162 L

J Sanderson o2.5 +140 L

Brady Tkachuk o3.5 -130 W

Bobby Mcmann o1.5 -135 (this one is for 1 unit. I hope I'm not missing anything here but this line was way off, according to my model) L

Marner o1.5 -154 W

Tavares o2.5 +105 W

Nylander o2.5 -142 W

4-3 for -.64 units. Would have been slightly positive had the Mcmann bet not been for a full unit. Puts us now at -1.06 units after 19 plays between shots and blocks. (By the way, counting them all together is the more legitimate way to do it. Lots of touts will segment their plays as much as possible. It then becomes likely that one 'segment' will do really well and that's what they advertise while conveniently 'forgetting' about the other ones. "We're 10-2 on 5 star over/under plays!") 

The sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions, obviously, but I actually think I got in pretty good on these. Chabot and Sanderson both had 4 Shot Attempts which should have given me at least one winner between the two. Sanderson even had almost 3 full minutes of PP time too. Even the McMann bet wasn't as bad as it looks. He didn't get any shots but he got plenty of ice time, including 1.5 minutes on the PP which is about what I had him for. Only one shot attempt total though which isn't great. And all the other winners were legit as they all had about double the amount of Attempts as Shots and all saw plenty of ice time, 5 on 5 and PP. So while the results thus far have been lackluster, I'm actually slightly encouraged. I'll definitely have more picks up soon.

By the way, if the picks aren't your thing, don't worry. It's only for the NHL playoffs and there will always be regular, long form posts as the bulk of this blog. Right now I'm sort of in 'model mode' and I really like this new Shots one I made, so there will most definitely be more picks up here in the next couple of months.

My first post here was March 2, 2020 so we're just over exactly 5 years running here. If you've been reading the whole time, I do appreciate it. It's been fun getting this out there. It's nice doing something just completely for me, for free, talking about whatever I feel like.

Talk soon, bye!

New Model And Picks For Tonight

I just finished up a brand new model for NHL Shots On Goal. I did things a little differently than normal with this model so I'm going to consider this a Beta Test and count tonights plays as half units. I really like this model, I came up with expected TOI for Even Strength and PP in a much different way than before. I'm also using Shots instead of Corsi converted back into Shots. Corsi to Shot percentage was something I thought would give me an edge in my old models but it never really did. I used to think I'd find guys running good or bad with getting their shots through, and sometimes I did. But ice-time, line mates and opposition are bigger deals. Plus, with a full seasons worth of sample size, the differences in Corsi, Fenwick and Shots really goes down. That was always the bulkiest, most time consuming part of the model too, so this one is more streamlined without losing any edge. Should let me to get in more plays in the future. At least, that's how the thinking goes. I'm also way more aware of the effect that Playoffs have in general. It sounds stupid but I never really officially looked into it before. Like I said in my last post, all events except goals go up in the playoffs, including Shots. And it's not just because OT is more likely. They go up per minute as well as per game.

Anyway, on to the picks. We're at -.42 units after 12 plays so far, all of them being Blocks. Definitely running a little bad on what I posted here as I'm up a good amount so far on Blocks. To me it's all NHL Player Props so we'll count 'em all together.

I only had the time and the dry powder for one game tonight, OTT vs TOR, which isn't ideal. And as you're going to see, they're all overs. Normally this would be a giant red flag, but I really looked into everything and feel pretty good about these picks. Both teams take more penalties than average and OTT draws a lot more than the average team. So we should see lots of special teams and could easily see 4 periods or more of hockey with 3 of the 4 games this series so far going into OT.

So here they are. All for half a unit unless otherwise stated. 

Chabot o1.5 -162

J Sanderson o2.5 +140

Brady Tkachuk o3.5 -130

Bobby Mcmann o1.5 -135 (this one is for 1 unit. I hope I'm not missing anything here but this line was way off, according to my model)

Marner o1.5 -154

Tavares o2.5 +105

Nylander o2.5 -142

Again, all overs, lots of chalk. Weird feeling. Part of me hates it, part of me loves it. Feels like it's going to be a really good or a really bad slate.

Check back tomorrow, good luck us!

Pick Results

Results from last post:

Thomas Harley u1.5 +130 L

Esa Lindell u2.5 +110 L

Darnell Nurse u2.5 -188 W

John Carlson u1.5 -120 L

T. Van Riemsdyk u1.5 +120 W

Mike Matheson u2.5 -168 W

3-3 for exactly 0 units won/lost. Puts us at -.42 units total after 12 plays.

I was thinking today about how the Playoffs in particular effect (affect? I don't know why but I'm retarded when it comes to knowing when to use effect vs affect) blocked shots. I looked at the same 3 full seasons of regular seasons vs playoffs from a couple years ago and what I found was fairly interesting. Blocks go up a decent amount during the playoffs, a lot more than I would have thought. It's more than 10%. Also, for the playoffs, Corsi, Fenwick and Shots per game AND per minute are higher (and, interestingly, I think, the difference between Corsi per game and Fenwick per game is higher). However, Goals per game and per minute are slightly lower. So it would appear that there are more events during a playoff game, but less goals. That means more misses, saves, and blocks. The e/affect isn't huge, about 5 more attempts each game, total, but it isn't nothing. So that means at the very least, I'll pass on really close under bets and be more likely to fire on close over bets. 

I'll probably have some more picks up in the next couple of days. I've been tinkering with a new model for Shots per game, simplifying my old one. The tricky part for me is always ice time, power play and otherwise. I was comforted recently when I read a throwaway line in Ed Millers book 'Interception' that I talked about on here briefly. He said something like 'when you're capping props, it always comes down to how accurately you can predict minutes.' Same with football. Getting a good number on pass or rush attempts is always the trickiest part.

That's it for today, although slight chance I'll have some picks up here in a couple hours. I do have a little bit of time for myself today. Check back soon, bye for now!

Picks For Tonight

 I had some time today so I dusted off my new little NHL xBlocks model and capped the 3 games we have tonight. The following are bets that I have that I believe to be +EV. The edges aren't huge by any means but I think they do offer some expected value. Hopefully we get ourselves into the green with these tonight.

As always, these are completely free, all from Draft Kings, and are either risking one unit or to win one unit. I'm not even posting on X about the new post so if you're here, good for you. These are all NHL Blocks.

Thomas Harley u1.5 +130

Esa Lindell u2.5 +110

Darnell Nurse u2.5 -188

John Carlson u1.5 -120

T. Van Riemsdyk u1.5 +120

Mike Matheson u2.5 -168

Check back tomorrow for results.